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9 Lessons in Brexit

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Three years after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the political debate over Brexit seems as intense and as complicated as ever. Who and what can we trust? And how on earth do we make sense of it all?Ivan Rogers, the UK's former ambassador to the EU, is uniquely placed to tell some home truths about the failure of the British political class and the flaws, dishonesty and confusion inherent in the UK's approach to Brexit so far.In this short, elegant essay, Rogers draws up nine lessons that we, as a soon-to-be 'third country', need to learn from the last few years, if the next few years - indeed the next decade - are not to be even more painful.

46 pages, Kindle Edition

First published February 7, 2019

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Ivan Rogers

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Displaying 1 - 30 of 48 reviews
Profile Image for Maru Kun.
222 reviews557 followers
March 29, 2019
This not a long book, so it should be easy to pass on a samizdat copy to a Remainer brother out of sight of the UKIP guards while everyone is busy drinking that day's bowl of chlorinated chicken soup and taking a break from digging up our local British turnips from a field somewhere in Brexit East Anglia a decade from now.

Amid all the technical discussion on WTO, Customs Unions, Canada+++ there is one short passage I will bring to my future comrade's attention:
"...we are dealing with a political generation which has no serious experience of bad times and is frankly cavalier about precipitating events they cannot then control, but feel they might exploit..."
Nicely put.





Profile Image for Colin.
333 reviews14 followers
February 28, 2019
I am sorry to say that I was disappointed in this essay. I appreciate that it is based on a lecture and has the stylist qualities of a piece delivered in that fashion. Nevertheless, I found it long on assertion and short on hard, statistical information to support the various arguments. I respect the author as an expert in the EU and can understand his frustration at having been removed from his post when the PM started to implement the 2016 Referendum. However, I was hoping to find much clearer, evidence-based analyses of the key issues of the Brexit argument. This was not the case.
Profile Image for Venky.
1,043 reviews421 followers
December 27, 2019
On the 19th of October, 2019, England took on Australia in the Quarterfinals of the ongoing Rugby World Cup in Japan. However, rugby was not the only encounter that had gripped the English imagination that day – and night. The Boris Johnson Government which was accumulating incremental degrees of transience every passing day, was facing what arguably was its sternest test. It found itself wrestling to nullify an amendment that provided parliament for withholding approval of the prime minister’s deal until the withdrawal bill implementing Brexit has been passed. But the events leading upto the voting on the bill have been, if anything, a medley of absolute cacophony. Manufactured concoctions of lies, figments of phantasmagorical imagination and an abject disregard for transparency all contributed in equal measures to the unenviable position, Britain finds itself today – between the Devil and the Deep Sea.

No one can be more qualified or credible to hold forth on this mayhem than Mr. Ivan Rogers. A former senior civil servant, who was also Britain’s ambassador to the EU, Mr. Rogers resigned in January 2017. He has been a beacon of clarity in demystifying the maze that is Brexit and separating the wheat from the chaff. In his wonderful book, “9 Lessons in Brexit”, he lays out in an unsparing manner, the elemental facets that the political mavens need to equip themselves with, if Brexit needs a closure that is timely, expedient and sans any catastrophe.

With no consideration for either niceties or bromides, “9 Lessons” is an essential polemic that details in a stark fashion the ludicrousness and banalities of the self-serving politicians who, in an attempt to shamelessly propel their self-serving interests and ideologies, use an unsuspecting and unwitting populace as convenient pawns. So here is an attempt to present an informed summary of the intricate latticework of wisdom that Mr. Rogers offers:

LESSON 1: BREXIT IS A BREXIT IS A BREXIT

Mr. Roger’s basically tries to remind the “Leave” campaigners that one cannot have the cake and possibly consume it too. In other words, once the momentous or inglorious (as may be appropriate) decision has been made to exit the European Union, you cannot ” from just outside the fence, achieve all the benefits you got when just inside it.” Britain also needs to be prepared for the fact that the concept of a ‘frictionless trade’ would be nothing other than a pipe dream, once it moves outside both the Customs Union and the Single Market.

LESSON 2: SOVEREIGNTY IS NOT AN EXCLUSIVE ENGLISH PRESERVE

The European Union would not bend over backwards to either accommodate or accord privileges to a departing United Kingdom. Whether it be in the cumbersome situation of being hemmed and hawed in by the onerous General Data Protection Regulations (“GDPR”); or the Schroedinger’s Customs Union Facilitated Customs Arrangement proposal, whereby UK derived all the necessary benefits only by staying in a Customs Union with the EU whilst leaving it to have a fully sovereign trade policy; Mr. Roger’s emphatically asserts that “the public will soon conclude that much of the supposed control they won back was just a simulacrum of sovereignty for some empty suits in Westminster, with the real decisions about their lives still taken elsewhere.”

LESSON 3: BREXIT IS A PROCESS (AT WHICH THE EU IS A MASTER) & NOT AN EVENT

As Mr. Rogers puts it with flair and flamboyance, the people advocating for Brexit, three years ago, “had not the slightest fag packet plan on what they were going to try and do and in which order.” The sheer complexity and intricacies underpinning the Brexit negotiations – and stretching into a domain of intractability – would be overwhelming for the English, but not for Brussels, which is a veritable master of negotiations.

LESSON 4: BREXIT DOES NOT HAVE A SINGLE TRUE DESTINATION

The shallow and straw-man arguments forming the premise of both the “No Deal” Right and Downing Street attempting to lend authenticity and credibility to their views whilst actively seeking to de-legitimize opposing views only exacerbates the simmering melting pot of issues instead of cooling it.

LESSON 5: WTO TERMS & THEIR ADEQUACY

As Mr. Rogers painstakingly argues, this is yet another classic case of “cakeism.” “If moving beyond WTO terms with major markets represents a major step forward in liberalising trade, then deliberately moving back to WTO terms from an existing deep preferential agreement – which is what the Single Market is – represents a major step backward to less free trade. You really can’t have it both ways.”

LESSON 6: THE PROBLEM LIES WITH SERVICES SILLY

Services sectors represent over three quarters of the British economy. The future prospects of this burgeoning industry is alarmingly proposed to be sacrificed at the altar of the primary goal of ending the freedom of movement. This defenestration of a 90 billion pound per annum industry, as Mr. Rogers highlights, is a ploy that is neither logical nor desirable.

LESSON 7: THE CURSE OF THE “PLUSES”

As a famous saying goes, ‘comparison is the thief of joy.’ The Leave campaigners seem to be squarely falling into the trap of comparison by digging a grave with “pluses” carved out as epitaphs. There have mushroomed countries serving as ‘comparability templates’ for spurring a No-Deal Brexit. While it was “Canada +++” or “Super-Canada”, as it was termed by the former Foreign Secretary, Norway has now joined the club. As Mr. Rogers, with a trace of inimitably dry British humour puts it, “we have Norway +, which used to be “Norway-then-Canada” then became “Norway-for-now” and then became “Norway + forever”. And now even “No deal +”, which also makes appearances as “Managed no deal” and “No deal minideals”.

LESSON 8: TRANSPARENCY MY FRIEND, TRANSPARENCY

Mr Rogers informs his readers that till now, the United Kingdom has been totally nontransparent in all its negotiations with the European Union. Bringing in elements of secrecy and opaqueness to the table, the British government, in the words of Mr. Rogers has been left, “permanently divided against itself and,therefore, largely unable to articulate any agreed, coherent position, has floundered in its wake.”

LESSON 9: BE HONEST WITH THE PUBLIC

The last takeaway from Mr Rogers’ book is perhaps the most important as well. Possessing a direct and inextricable linkage with the 8th lesson, this principle argues for ‘real honesty with the public.’ This according to Mr. Rogers “is the best – the only – policy if we are to get to the other side of Brexit with a healthy democracy, a reasonably unified country and a strong economy.” One cannot but unequivocally concur with this proposal.

By the time the lights at the Oita Stadium were switched off, England had handed The Wallabies a convincing, and surprising thumping, winning the game 40-16, and in the process, guaranteeing themselves a berth in the Semi Finals. However, the same could not be said for Boris Johnson and Co. The former Tory minister Oliver Letwin’s amendment passed 322 to 306. The verdict now means that Mr. Johnson is deprived of passing through his Brexit deal, which in turn means that an extension is in the offing. At least now, we fervently hope that all the parties involved pay heed to the invaluable and precocious lessons handed out by Mr. Rogers that will culminate in a Brexit that is in the general interests of not just the United Kingdom, but also the European Union and global trade relationships.
Profile Image for Freya Smeets.
20 reviews
May 11, 2020
Some of the vocabulary and political terms were tricky to follow if you don’t have a huuuge knowledge of Brexit - but overall an interesting and well-informed read.
Profile Image for Stephen Morrissey.
524 reviews10 followers
March 9, 2019
Quagmire: few, if any, words in the English language better capture the current state of Brexit politics today. If talk of Brexit and backstops have induced a headache, then Sir Ivan Rogers' pamphlet-like book is a much-needed dose of ibuprofen to alleviate the pain and whisk away the illusions of past drunken dreams.

Sir Ivan competently and judiciously shows how the fallacies of Leavers, as well as Remainers, has led Britain into dire straits. While the current climate is obviously not ideal, Sir Ivan is one of the few commentators to warn that Britain will encounter even more difficulties post-withdrawal, when the EU trade-saavy technocrats will seek to rake London over the coals in several key economic areas.

Honest debate: that is what is needed now more than ever, and can be found in abundance in this little book.
Profile Image for Simon Howard.
709 reviews15 followers
February 6, 2019
An extended essay (90 smallish pages) on Brexit by Britain's former Permanent Representative to the EU.

Commendably clear explanations of why much of what is said by both people on both sides of the Brexit debate is woefully incorrect, all wrapped in a blistering attack on the Government's entire approach to Brexit negotiations (which have resulted in "an obviously bad deal"). It's a forceful essay, but which sheds quite a lot of light alongside the heat.

Rogers says we need more honesty with the public ("It's time to wake up from the dream and face the facts") but doesn't seem to have any defined path to improving on a woeful position.

And as if to leave us in no doubt as to how woeful he feels the position to be: "Nothing is more redolent of the pre-First World War era, when few believed that a very long period of European peace and equilibrium could be shattered in months."
Profile Image for R.
143 reviews2 followers
December 31, 2023
Poorly written. The word “and” is used constantly”.

The one takeway. When delivering Brexit, you are unable to have a close trading relationship with the EU, have judicial sovereignty and strike trade deals around the world. You have to drop one of these three aspirations.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
3 reviews1 follower
April 6, 2019
The belief that power is more important than competitive advantage

‘What, really, are these “equivalence” and “adequacy” stories about? They are the EU projecting power–which it does quite as well as, and probably more effectively than, Washington, in multiple critical regulatory areas–and using its pooling of internal sovereignty to impose its values and standards well beyond its borders....‘Going global’, unless it’s purely an empty slogan, is precisely the ability to project both force and influence beyond one’s borders.’’

To what end? Or is power an end in itself?

Going global ought to mean seeking global markets for goods and services - an exercise in mutual benefit not an exercise of one system’s power over another. Which is more likely to lead to conflict and how healthy are power blocks?

Is being a member of a large power/trading block a good thing when Trump is beginning to target these with punitive tariffs? The US has a substantial deficit with the EU in many sectors such as cars. Would we want to be inside or outside the trading block so targeted? Are there any benefits to being small?

The EU has free trade agreements with pitifully few large countries apart from Japan (it’s 36 deals include minnows like Guernsey, Jersey and the EU’s overseas territories).

The EU will make up 16% of the world economy in 2020 down from 28% in 1990. It is a major export market for the UK at the moment and exiting it will cause pain. Which of the fast growing emerging markets do we want to be most exposed to in the long term? do we actually need free trade agreements to trade with them?

Are we prepared to take short term pain for long term gain? Will the short term pain genuinely be catastrophic?

I work in financial services (not one of the large firms with privileged access to the EU, admittedly). Most of our clients are foreign institutions in countries we do not have trade deals with. Very few are from Europe which is much harder for small service companies to deal with than you’d imagine. And the rest of the world much easier.

I see things from a business and market point of view and fully accept this imposes viewpoint biases. To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Is it possible a civil servant’s viewpoint also imposes biases?
Profile Image for Dom.
132 reviews4 followers
April 20, 2019
A simultaneously reassuring and frightening battle cry for "serious substance not plausible bullshit" in this period of a historic clusterfuck. Reassuring since the author rigorously distils facts and guidance where beliefs and incompetence rue the day. Frightening since it casts a glaring light on how disorderly, bogged down and stacked with incompetence the current situation is. Rather flabbergasting to think that this is happening in the country that not so long ago was an empire the sun never set on. Go Britain, take back control of your sanity.


**Keywording**

Adequacy and equivalence to project power. BATNA. Frictionless trade comes with free movement of people. In in insider and influence. Leave, but why and where to? Pool to enhance sovereignty. Services vs Goods. Third country. Trade v sovereignty. Vote on terms.
Profile Image for Patrick G Cox.
Author 24 books61 followers
February 11, 2020
Fact and Experience versus Fantasy

The insights this book offers of the minefield David Cameron so casually led the country into should be compulsory reading. Ivan Rogers expertise shines through, but, as events have proved, expertise was ignored by those driving this process. For this reader the big take away is the exposure of the fact the UK Government tried to negotiate behind closed doors, ignoring or criticizing the EU approach which is transparent. Where the EU published its findings, reports and objectives, HMG had to be forced to do so. The bookmakers easy, and sometimes disturbing reading, and is very informative.
Profile Image for Carys.
64 reviews3 followers
February 10, 2019
Ivan Rogers is clearly incredibly well versed in all things EU, and he writes very level-headed. You can see in some parts of the book, he attempts to be neutral and it does make the book more approachable. Overall, the book was really insightful and interesting. Although it didn’t contain a great deal of new information, it explains the complex problems in detail and highlights some less obvious truths.
Profile Image for Amy Alice.
420 reviews24 followers
April 7, 2019
Brexit is a shit show. This eloquently discusses exactly why it was only ever doomed to fail, no matter what. Docked a star because it assumed a lot of knowledge, which is fine, I coped, but I felt the title leaned towards people expecting more explanation of Brexit too? Some of the terms were glossed over.
Profile Image for Bert Bruins.
83 reviews3 followers
May 6, 2019
Condensed, to the point and incisive critique of the last few years of Brexit negotiations by the former top civil servant, and former UK ambassador to the EU. Here is someone, you can tell, who has tried to stay out of the limelight for most of his career, but feels obliged to tell his side of the story in these Alice in Wonderland times...
11 reviews
July 18, 2019
This book gives a good overview on some of the mishaps and is a good quick read if you want to gain more understanding as ties togethet a lot. However doesn’t make any new points or help understand (or try and argue) why the U.K. is in its current predicament, where to from now or why Brexit happened in the first place
Profile Image for Richard.
10 reviews
August 17, 2019
Brief and to the point!

Ivan Rogers clearly has strong views on the basic premises behind Brexit and on the muddled processes of the British government in trying to bring it about. Unlike most of us - who may also have our own opinions on the matter - he has real life experience of working and dealing with the EU.
Well worth a read.
84 reviews5 followers
March 15, 2019
God help us all!

Fascinating, enlightening, honest and terrifying... As a Remainer, I am not sure if I should just go off somewhere private and shoot myself. This should be required reading for everyone.
25 reviews1 follower
March 20, 2019
A short and intense read.

Very precise and interesting.

Beyond ideological and political opinions, facts should be considered in a more careful and considerate way. Ivan Rogers is a master in doing that.
Profile Image for Tom Richards.
123 reviews8 followers
May 15, 2019
Short but not sweet. More like extremely acerbic. Very damning of the uk political class for not being either intelligent enough to understand, or brave enough to explain, the real implications of Brexit. Required reading.
Profile Image for Rae.
3,907 reviews
May 29, 2019
Still trying to wrap my head around all this Brexit business -- difficult at best as it changes almost daily. Rogers' POV is "if you leave the EU then be prepared for the inevitable consequences and don't complain that it isn't a more pleasant process" -- Of course it isn't! Interesting.
Profile Image for Amy Joy.
115 reviews3 followers
February 16, 2020
was kind of interesting but at times was difficult to understand and just sort of reiterated the same points in different wording. Rodgers was also clearly anti brexit which lead to the book feeling almost like remain propaganda.
54 reviews1 follower
April 13, 2020
Without arguing for or against Brexit as such, Rogers debunks many of the positions of those who wish that the UK should leave the EU without a deal. With not even 100 pages it's a quick read and very well written, but doesn't necessarily add anything new if you're already following the debate.
23 reviews7 followers
May 5, 2022
A brilliant very well informed rant! Wish I’d read it when it was first published. Now busy listening to his various online commentaries since. Rather depressing but realistic view that even rejoining the single market or custom union are not at all likely or straightforward. What a mess.
Profile Image for Neil Fulwood.
965 reviews22 followers
March 3, 2019
An unsparing essay that cuts through the hyperbole, opacity and outright dishonesty that has characterised the national debate around Brexit, and delivers some commendable straight-talking.
1 review
March 17, 2019
Excellent book to aid understanding of the real risks of doing this stupidity.
2 reviews
March 28, 2019
Great short book on eu realities

If you want some real reality on the difficulties the UK faced, and faces, leaving the EU; read this. Great short book
Profile Image for Steve Gillway.
935 reviews11 followers
April 5, 2019
Clear rational thought from a bone fide expert that helps wade through the emotional torment of Brexit
2 reviews3 followers
April 14, 2019
There have been few books I could recommend to those wanting to separate fact from fiction on Brexit. This book is definitely one that I could. It’s worth the time to read and could certain educate a lot out there.
Profile Image for Daniel Lambauer.
191 reviews6 followers
April 16, 2019
interesting brief book, a copy of the lecture serie, laying out the choices the UK has to make from the perspective of an ex-civil servant.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 48 reviews

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