Schake’s thesis: “America faces challenges to the international order of its making — in particular the rise of China. The experience of the passage from British to American hegemony suggests that a peaceful transition from American to Chinese hegemony is highly unlikely. The passage was testy and contingent even between two countries with many more commonalities. If this earlier transition is illustrative, hegemony with Chinese characteristics will not hue to the rules of order established by the United States. Instead should it become the hegemon, China will project onto the international order its own domestic ideology, just as America has.... Perhaps that is the most worrisome lesson for America as it contemplates other rising powers: future hegemony, no matter how much commonality they exhibit through the passage of power from one state to another, will eventually seek to remake the international order in their own image, just as the United States has.” This makes sense on the assumption that China has the same sort of messianic, even millenarian (and thus proselytizing) political culture that America does — which it does not. In fact, China sees the world more in terms of itself as the Middle Kingdom of all under heaven (tianxia).
“Wilson... had found the key that would eventually become the basis for American hegemony: remaking the international order into a values-drenched simulacrum of the United States. Only when the political principles by which Americans purported to live could be universalized would American power be harnessed toward establishing order.” (13)
“The peaceful transition [from Britain to the US] was a highly contingent outcome, unlikely to be replicable. The probability is very small of starts aligning such that both the rising and relatively declining power each possesses and recognizes in the other cimilarities, consider them distinguishing from all others, and fosters unique trust that enables a shifting of power without violence. The British to American transition also cautions against optimism that a rising power will become a ‘responsible stakeholder.’ Washington’s hopefulness that it can find a formula for a powerful and prosperous China probably underestimates just how much at variance with America’s notions of responsibility China’s notions of responsibility are, or to whom the Chinese government considers itself responsible. Great Britain was the society most like American in the late 19th and rarely 20th centuries, sharing related populations, common history, similar language, political philosophies that emerged from the European enlightenment, and cultures easily accessible to the broad population. America is likely to be far more different from potential hegemonic challengers than it was different from Britain.... A peaceful transition from Great Britain to the United States would almost certainly have been contested by violence without the cultural similarities the two countries shared in the nineteenth century.” (18-19, 38)
“The nature of the state is central to understanding why America was different from the established order at the time of its ascendency, the new type of threat it posed to states constituted less democratically, why Britain and America found the basis for cooperation, and ultimately why America did not hew to the special relationship it had with Britain but sought to transform international relations by urging adoption more generally of its form of domestic governance.” (22)
“Control alone is adequate to define hegemony. The amount of force hegemony requires is a useful measure of sustainment, but not definitional. It may be despotism, and an inferior model of Rome’s more efficient imperium of making subjects out of the conquered, or a Pax Americana of consensual association, but control is sufficient for establishing and enforcing the rules of international order.” (24)
“While the two are often conflated, hegemony is not synonymous with empire, the difference being that empire is the direct administration of different communities from an imperial center and hegemony is the ability of some power or authority to lay down the law about external relations between states in the international system, while leaving them domestically independent.” (32)
It almost went badly wrong on numerous occasions in the UK/US transition, largely because “British statesmen were appalled at the type of government on display in America.” (275)
“In stark terms, the lessons of the British to American case for future hegemonic transitions are four: (1) the prospects for a peaceful hegemonic transition are small even in the most conductive circumstances; (2) differences in political culture and structure of government make an American to Chinese hegemonic transition much less likely to be peaceful; (3) America is making the same strategic choice with China that Great Britain did with a rising America, that it can be induced to comply with extant rules; and (4) America ought to expect that a hegemonic China will rewrite the rules to reflect its domestic political culture, just as America itself did.” (272) I’m with Schake except on the last point, for the reasons of strategic culture (tianxia) mentioned above.
“America’s ability to reach into other countries’ domestic politics, and the comparative difficulty of other countries being able to affect a more kaleidoscopic American body politic, provided a significant bargaining advantage in American foreign policy.” (277) Of course, with today’s closed communication system and authoritarian politician system in China versus the open communications system and democratic political system in the United States, the reverse logic applies in the 21st century: China is much more likely to be effective interfering in American politics than the U.S is to be interfering in Chinese politics.
“If prevention of war is the metric... a Fukuyama orientation of American policy [could] prove essential to a peaceful transition of hegemony between America and CHina should it occur.” (287) “The American order will succeed or fail along Fukuyama lines: either the United States will prove right that free people and free markets are the sole basis for sustaining prosperity and political power, and China will either fail to continue rising or become indistinguishable from other states in the American order, or China will prove resistant to the attractions of liberalism and overtake America as the hegemon. If the Chinese model sustains itself, then a dominant China is likely to recast the rules in ways that extrapolate to the international order its domestic ideology, just as America did. Hegemony with Chinese characteristics would be a very different international order from the one that American has fostered with its hegemony.” (291)