Ten years from today, the center of our digital lives will no longer be the smart phone, but device that looks like ordinary except those glasses will have settings for Virtual and Augmented Reality. What you really see and what is computer generated will be mixed so tightly together, that we won’t really be able to tell what is real and what is illusion. Instead of touching and sliding on a mobile phone, we will make things happen by moving our eyes or by brainwaves. When we talk with someone or play an online game, we will see that person in the same room with us. We will be able to touch and feel her or him through haptic technology. We won’t need to search online with words, because there will be a new Visual Web 100 times larger than the current Internet, and we will find things by images, buy things by brands, or just by looking at a logo on the jacket of a passerby. Language will be irrelevant, and a merchant in a developing world will have access to global markets. Medical devices will cure schizophrenia, allow quadriplegics to walk. People will be able to touch and feel objects and other people who are not actually there for conversations, games and perhaps intimate experiences. From Kindergarten to on-the-job, learning will become experiential. Children will visit great battlefields and tour historic places in VR rather than read about them in text books. Med students and surgeons will learn and practice on virtual humans rather than cadavers; oil rig workers will understand how to handle emergencies, before the ever leave the home office. The Fourth Transformation is based on two years of research and about 400 interviews with technologists and business decision makers. It explains the technology and product landscape on a level designed to be interesting and useful to business thinkers and general audiences. Mostly it talks about how VR and AR are already being used, or will be used in the next one-to-three years. It explains how this massive and fundamental transformation will be driven, nit just by Millennials, but by the generation following them, which the authors have named the Minecraft Generation. Robert Scoble and Shel Israel have written this book in the hope that it will serve as a business thinker’s guidebook to the near-term future. They hope readers will walk away understanding the massive changes rapidly arising, so that they will navigate a successful course through the changes they will be facing sooner than they—or their competitors-- may realize just yet.
I was already geeking out 15 minutes into the audiobook. I know my family/friends/random people I encounter are tired of hearing me go on about Augmented/Mixed Reality, but it is going to be such an across the board game changer.
When I first explained AR to my kids and got them to understand what it was capable of they sat in the living room for an hour cranking out uses for the technology.
These are the videos I show people to get them psyched about the technology:
Prior to collaborating on and self-publishing The fourth transformation: How augmented reality and artificial intelligence change everything (2017), Robert Scoble and Shel Israel both wrote and researched about the short-term impact of technology since 2005. Robert Scoble has been a contributor at Upload VR and has been very influential at spotting up and coming tech. In addition to writing six previous books, Shel Israel has also contributed to Businessweek and Forbes.
Before I can begin a review of The Fourth Transformation, it would help to outline the three transformations that preceded it. The first transformation began in the 70’s when humans began using text characters to communicate with computers. The second transformation was the invention of the graphic user interface or GUI which advanced the way people interacted with computers by incorporating a mouse as an input device. The third transformation was the introduction of Apple’s iPhone and later the Android operating system which elevated the human experience with computers to touch almost exclusively. The fourth transformation, which this book describes, comes with the introduction of virtual reality, augmented reality, and mixed reality or VR, AR, and MR. All three are similar versions of humans interacting with computers within either a real or virtual environment.
The book is a review of current VR/AR/MR technology capabilities and various channel implementations as well as which direction the authors predict it heading. Although the book touches on education occasionally, it mainly focuses on business applications and how the technology should be implemented if businesses want to stay current. The authors predict that, by 2025, most consumers will be spending a majority of their time with VR glasses rather than using their phones. This will bring about a sea-change in the way people will interact with each other as well as their environments. Which brings into the discussion how businesses will need to keep pace with the technology. The authors argue that successful businesses will need to stay ahead of the curve by creating advertising that is reactive to the likes and interests of the individual as well as their current location. This means custom, interactive advertising based on geolocation of each consumer. If businesses are unable to keep up, they will become extinct.
The book also gives a global perspective of how VR technology can become a communication device across all languages. One example given by the authors is that there are probably 200 ways to say bicycle or bracelet but one picture can convey an exact meaning across all languages. There is an interesting observation made by the authors that brings VR into international focus that can somewhat be connected to the bicycle idea. Countries that conduct trade are very unlikely to go to war with one another. VR will allow people to search by image rather than words which reduces one more obstacle to worldwide trade.
Two other observations by the authors bring about the idea of a possible future world utopia. They state that children are able to learn two or more languages and speak them like a native as long as they learn them before puberty. They feel that the VR technology will make learning foreign languages much easier in the near future. Based on this, the authors posit that mutli-lingual children will be better able to ignore the boudaries of borders, religion, and politics. While I would like to believe that world peace via virtual reality is possible, in looking at social media today, I don’t necessarily share their optimism. I do hope that VR will allow future generations to better experience the lives of others and keep from becoming judgmental about their peers personal feelings and situations.
If you are a business owner looking for some ideas on future direction for your market and how to connect with your customers, this book is exactly what you’re looking for. If you are marginally interested in the future of virtual reality, this will be an interesting read for you, too. The only issue I have with this book is that it’s two years old. Unfortunately, when you write about future technology, Moore’s law still applies. Even a book written this recently is going to be a little behind the times. Good read, it just needs to be updated yearly but I won’t fault the authors for this.
What happens when the marketers know when the ad makes your hearts tick quicker?
I am optimistic about AR/VR/MR, and that's why I want to continue diving deeper into the topic. I expected more insight from this specific book. But I also might not be the exact target audience, as someone quite steeped in technology. I found it amusing that the authors also confident predictions about what will happen in the years 2017-2022. Those predictions didn't come to pass.
Well put. I'm a fan of sci-fi, so for me, it's very easy to see the benefits of VR, MR and the stuff that goes with it…..that said, it was interesting to see some possibilities described here, that I haven't thought of/read about before, and the specific connections between business and this technology are quite interesting to ponder. I hope, the timeline guessed at in this book is about right….I do look forward to this particular technology being developped :)
As a side note….minecraft generation? I see your point, but….no. How about the "smart generation"? Describes the prevalence of smart devices and you can always say it with an ironic twist :)
Interesting cases and some good perspectives of what the future might bring
Mobile devices have reached full adoption in the market. But we have yet not seen what can be achieved on handsets in terms of augmented reality. It is still early days for headsets although we see glimps of really cool stuff. In this book I found the real cases of today the most interesting.
In brief, this book aims to educate business decision-makers regarding the likely disruptive change coming in the wake of VR (Virtual Reality), AR (Augmented Reality) and MR (Mixed Reality).
If you're a deep computer geek (like me), this book isn't likely to tell you anything you don't already know, but that's not its point. This one is geared to non-tech-heads who already have thriving businesses to warn them that change is coming. It is, I think, successful in making this clear.
Through the book, the author describes the technologies and their recent advances and differentiates VR, AR and MR. He discusses several of the major players in the industry. Then he goes over several of the current examples of how these technologies are already being used in a few select instances.
The book was clearly written in mid-2016 and given the rapid evolution of this field in the industry, I suspect it will be out of date by 2018. However, it is probably something almost every big-business CEO better read. Scoble does a good job of paralleling the potential disruption from the coming wave of VR/AR/MR technologies to that of the rise of the internet and how big an impact it has had on many industries.
He gives good examples of where the state of the current art is limited, but is prescient enough to know that things are going to change and change very quickly over the next couple of years. For this reason, business leaders at least need to be aware of the technology. From one standpoint, being aware of this could lead some businesses to leverage the technology into new products or capabilities in existing products or customer interactions. From another standpoint, it could be used to at least avoid forced obsolescence (look at the effect of the internet on retail in general and bookstores in particular, for instance).
Overall, it was a very quick read and I found it quite interesting.
I really like Scoble's journalistic efforts on FB -- he is both more engaging/present and more interesting than most technologists. He's prescient that AR/MR/VR are going to lead the largest yet societal transformation, and yes, it will include IoT and AI. So I was excitedly eager to read this, and I'm glad he wrote it.
This book is a timely, accurate and import contribution. Glad I read it, and I'm well versed in the topic.
Yet.... I feel I could have been more deeper, better researched, and organized with more polish. Especially the longest chapter on potential problems may have even did better left omitted. As technical utopians, they really don't give full credit to valid dangers and concerns, in part because the trend is so inevitable.
The future is in more than just 3-D and this new emersion we are all about to experience in its multiple forms and applications is explored and explained in this delightful read. VR, AR, and more! Those that are expected to be good, and those that many fear are looked at and evaluated. This is more than just an expectation of what is to come from this fourth transformation in technology, but also an elaboration of what may grow from that. Scoble and Israel make the content wonderfully accessible. And their conversation within the book is full of playful banter and excitement, bringing the reader into this new and wondrous development in technology.
I liked Robert Scoble from his Tech TV days but didn't care much for this book, it was aimed squarely at business and was a very positive view to business using this emerging tech to invade our privacy even more then the current tech giants already are. While I have much hope for the tech, if it goes the way the authors predict, I fear our coming corporate overlords. I think I'll wait for the open source community to start development before I pick up any of this tech. Oh yeah at the end of the book the authors thank there sponsors, I don't want to read sponsored books ever again.
I take from you a star because there were at times predictions made which had nothing to do with MR/VR. For example: "Kristi Hansen Onkka talked about her vision of an autonomous car with biometric sensors. When it detects a medical emergency, it becomes an autonomous vehicle speeding to an emergency room and sending vital signs and medical data including warnings of allergies".
As far as I can see, nothing in the previous quote is directly dependent on a headset. You only need an autonomous car along with the sensors, and any computer that knows its owner. And it was not just this one example, I did notice a few others along the way, but this was near the end of the book and is therefore the one I recall best.
I also suggest that you change the title to "The Fourth Transformation: How Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, and Artificial Intelligence Change Everything" because there was significant content dedicated to VR, I think. At the same time, I agree that this would make the name too long.
Other than that, the book delivers. It is a high-level (is that term used outside of programming ?) overview of AR and VR and how they will change everything.
While there's a lot of examples backing up the guesses in this book, much of it seems pretty far fetched but there's a slight chance that MR is going to be the leading technology of the future. I loved the last three chapters concerning education, health and the dark side of this fourth transformation.
كتاب ممتع عن كيف أن الواقع الإفتراضي والتفاعلي رح يكون هو النقلة الرابعة في حياة الإنسان مع التكنولوجيا (آخر نقلة كانت مع هواتف اللمس)، الكتاب يحتوي على معلومات وأمثلة كثيرة جداً أسمع بها لأول مرة على الرغم من أنني مهتم بهذه التقنيات والأمر يعود لكون جزء كبير منها ما زالت في مراحل ولادتها، الكتاب يشرح تواصل الأغراض المختلفة حولنا بإنترنت الأشياء وكيف أننا سننتقل من الإعتماد على الهواتف الذكية لإعتماد كامل على النظارات الذكية بشتى أنواعها وكيف ستؤثر على القطاعات المختلفة كالتعليم والصحة والتسوق والتصميم وغيرها.
To review this book without revealing much of it is daunting. Yet you get the whole picture from the forward are pretty much from the title. For me, the piece made lots of bold predictions that are sensible and we all believe will eventually happen but that haven't occurred as predicted. I also found Israel and Scoble quite rushed in their thinking — they really don't go into depth in the ideas they highlight.
While the ideas discussed are too deep to fit into a 200-page book, it seemed like this was a book merely mentioning exciting technologies in the virtual reality space. I didn't find the book satisfactorily or rigorously exploring in a deeper, more scientific manner what the mentioned technologies imply in everyday life while acknowledging the nuances and difficulties in building these technologies.
It's the second book in the row after Physics of the Future that may be described in one word Dreamers :)
From one side the book is fulfilled with teen spirit. It's packed with evangelist action at least the first half. The overview of what is going on and what's coming is extremely helpful to me who works with VR/AR/MR day by day for nearly two years and waiting for it for ages. As introduction it must be brilliant. Also it connects a lot of recent trends of AI, ML, IoT and so on making strong picture of nearest tech future :)
From the other the text is totally practical and business oriented. Retail, enterprise, healthcare and education are adopting the new media and tech even faster than such an entusiast as me thought ;)
The book argues that we will soon witness the fourth transformation in digital technology, which is spatial technology. The first is Mainframe and text command to GUI, the second is the widespread of desktops, the third is mobile. Spatial technology is made possible by VR/MR/AR. The book also paints the possibilities of the technologies, the uses, the possible dark sides, and the optimistic future. The two authors are well-known technology evangelist/writers. They both have access or witness many start-ups in this field so we can learn what's going on this space. Many of these start-ups have yet to hit the news. It's a quick and easy read but I didn't feel I learned a lot.
Well according to the authors by 2025 most people will make a switch from mobile to new technologies that use Augmented Reality and Virtual reality and later on Mixed reality with the help of AI to enhance human life. The authors were correct about the social media revolution that happened in the last decade in a previous book. I wonder if they are correct this time too. The book discusses a lot of the possible uses of these technologies and how people who are investing and developing these technologies are going to win the Future.
Very good overview of the potential direction of AR/VR/MR over the next decade and the various areas they will affect. Doesn't go into details, but that's not its purpose. Reasonable highlighting of potential issues to come, as well as tangential technologies such as IoT and AI. Disagreed with some assertions (eg autonomous cars are currently much safer than manually driven cars because last year only 1 person died in an autonomously driven car vs 30,000 in the USA).
I liked most of the book. It is a good introduction to the topic, especially for people who are not following the industry closely. It makes a great gift for business partners. Occasionally I think it is a little bit too broad in its approach and not specific enough. Also, while I enjoyed the optimism, I wondered if a skeptical voice would have helped to articulate the concerns a lot of people have with the AR/VR future and big tech. Nevertheless, it is a nice and informative read.
I've been following Robert Scoble for a few years now because he has access to knowledge, people, and technology like only a few people the planet. This book gives great insights on all the massive technological change that will be brought about through all the investments in AR, VR, MR, AI, and IoT. If you think that the Sci-Fi future is far away then read this book and you shall be amazed.
1970s text characters to talk with computers 1984 GUI Desktop 2007 iphone mobile today from what we carry to what we wear - VR, AR, MR with digital heart of AI -from business POV this is about greater accuracy, productivity, efficiency, and safety.
first 3 transformations it was all about the interface between tech and people the 4th is all about experiences-and this changes everything
Inspiring, intriguing, full of examples and real life stories to make a sci-fi fan like myself eagerly wait to see what the future will bring. The details are likely to be different, and the downsides are scary but Scoble and Israel are good tour guides to get you up to date with the latest developments.
This was definitely a good book to listen to... it was fascinating but easier to digest while on-the-go. I learned a ton about all of the fascinating aspects of the mixed reality future and how it will very likely effect our lives. If you are an amateur futurist like myself, or simply a gadget geek... this is a MUST listen. Cheers!
This was a quick, fascinating read, filled not just with optimism about the A.I. and augmented reality technologies are developing, but also a few intriguing cautionary notes. Inspiring and insightful, this is a book I imagine I'll be re-reading again.
I wasn't expecting this book to be focused on the business aspects of new tech, but the perspective was not bad. From a consumer perspective, I can see how these developments will modify how businesses market themselves. For myself, I'll continue looking from my own personal angle.
Great read for anyone interested in understanding how the current AR/VR landscape looks like and how it might look in the future. Might prove a very valuable read should this "fourth transformation" take place.
Provides some good insight into technological developments we can expect in the coming decade, but spends a little too much time talking about technology that is familiar to us - such as Snapchat and Pokemon Go. It is evident that the target audience for this book is older than I am.
I enjoyed reading the book as it provided a glimpse on the sort of world we will be living in beyond 2025 as a result of the 4th Transformation. Very insightful book, highly recommended.
Short, but interesting book about the next generation heads up technology that will change the world with Mixed Reality. There are countless hyperlinks that show Microsoft's Hololens, Magic Ears and even Apple is working on mixed reality glasses.