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The Seventh Sense: Power, Fortune, and Survival in the Age of Networks
The Digital Age we live in is as transformative as the Industrial Revolution and Joshua Cooper Ramo explains how to survive.
If you find yourself longing for a disconnected world where information is not always at your fingertips, you may eventually be as useful as the carriage maker post-Henry Ford. It's practically impossible to know where the marriage of imagination and technology will take us (sorry Betamax and Kodak), and the only certainty is that in the networked world we will only become more intertwined. Is it possible to not become hopelessly tangled?
Joshua Cooper Ramo, a policy expert who has advised the most powerful nations and corporations, says yes--if you are ready to ride the disruption. Drawing on examples from business, science, and politics, Ramo illuminates our transformative world. Start by imagining a near future when America's greatest power is not its military or its economy, but its control of the Internet.
If you find yourself longing for a disconnected world where information is not always at your fingertips, you may eventually be as useful as the carriage maker post-Henry Ford. It's practically impossible to know where the marriage of imagination and technology will take us (sorry Betamax and Kodak), and the only certainty is that in the networked world we will only become more intertwined. Is it possible to not become hopelessly tangled?
Joshua Cooper Ramo, a policy expert who has advised the most powerful nations and corporations, says yes--if you are ready to ride the disruption. Drawing on examples from business, science, and politics, Ramo illuminates our transformative world. Start by imagining a near future when America's greatest power is not its military or its economy, but its control of the Internet.
288 pages, Paperback
First published May 31, 2016
356 people are currently reading
4130 people want to read
About the author
Joshua Cooper Ramo
10 books43 followersJOSHUA COOPER RAMO IS CO-CEO OF KISSINGER ASSOCIATES, THE ADVISORY FIRM OF FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE DR. HENRY KISSINGER. HIS LAST BOOK WAS THE INTERNATIONAL BEST SELLER “THE AGE OF THE UNTHINKABLE”
Based in Beijing and New York, Ramo serves as an advisor to some of the largest companies and investors in the world. He is a member of the boards of directors of Starbucks and Fedex.
A Mandarin speaker who has been called “one of China’s leading foreign-born scholars” by the World Economic Forum, Ramo is best known for coining and articulating “The Beijing Consensus,” among other writings on China.
His views on global politics and economics have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Time, Foreign Policy and Fortune. He has been a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC, NBC and PBS. In 2008 he served as China analyst for NBC during the Beijing Olympic Games. For his work with Bob Costas and Matt Lauer during the Opening Ceremony, Ramo shared in a Peabody and Emmy award.
Before entering the advisory business, Ramo was a journalist. He was the youngest senior editor and foreign editor in the history of Time magazine, wrote more than 20 cover stories and ultimately oversaw the magazine’s technology coverage and online activities.
Ramo has been a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Leaders for Tomorrow, The Leaders Project, The Asia Society 21 Group, a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founder of the US-China Young Leaders Forum, and Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute. His last book, “The Age of the Unthinkable,” was translated into more than a dozen languages. His first book, “No Visible Horizon,” described his experiences as a competitive aerobatic pilot.
Raised in Los Ranchos, New Mexico, Ramo holds degrees from the University of Chicago and New York University. He is an avid pilot and motorcyclist.
Based in Beijing and New York, Ramo serves as an advisor to some of the largest companies and investors in the world. He is a member of the boards of directors of Starbucks and Fedex.
A Mandarin speaker who has been called “one of China’s leading foreign-born scholars” by the World Economic Forum, Ramo is best known for coining and articulating “The Beijing Consensus,” among other writings on China.
His views on global politics and economics have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Time, Foreign Policy and Fortune. He has been a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC, NBC and PBS. In 2008 he served as China analyst for NBC during the Beijing Olympic Games. For his work with Bob Costas and Matt Lauer during the Opening Ceremony, Ramo shared in a Peabody and Emmy award.
Before entering the advisory business, Ramo was a journalist. He was the youngest senior editor and foreign editor in the history of Time magazine, wrote more than 20 cover stories and ultimately oversaw the magazine’s technology coverage and online activities.
Ramo has been a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Leaders for Tomorrow, The Leaders Project, The Asia Society 21 Group, a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founder of the US-China Young Leaders Forum, and Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute. His last book, “The Age of the Unthinkable,” was translated into more than a dozen languages. His first book, “No Visible Horizon,” described his experiences as a competitive aerobatic pilot.
Raised in Los Ranchos, New Mexico, Ramo holds degrees from the University of Chicago and New York University. He is an avid pilot and motorcyclist.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 193 reviews
February 9, 2017
I had to stop shortly into the second chapter. The author seems to have two insights - that human history consists of many changes to culture, technology, science etc, and that these changes continue even now. I guess this is pretty dismissive. The author wants to explain how emerging technologies are creating new transformative networks. These networks will lead to disruptive changes of the first order similar to relativity, Napoleonic military strategy and the Gutenberg press. What makes this rather common theme difficult to stomach is that the author presents these ideas as though he just grasped a previously unrecognized truth rather than a rather mainstream thesis. I just couldn't bring myself to continue.
May 23, 2016
I was watching Fareed Zakaria on his show GPS and he had Joshua Ramo on talking about his book the Seventh Sense. I was fascinated and bought it. Here is the snippet that led me to do so: http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2016/05/....
The thesis is we live in the age of Networks. His key insight is that the Seventh Sense is the ability to look at any object and see the way in which it is changed by connection. It is hard for me to articulate how paradigm-shifting this notion is. As one reviewer put it on Amazon: "Once the book teaches you to look at objects as the sum of their connections and not as isolated objects, you see the planet anew. Newspapers may not be doomed; they are just misunderstood by their custodians. Government is not, as Silicon Valley bros might tell us, irrelevant. It is of great importance, but only if it understands what its role must be in an age of dense connection. ISIS can be defeated, but only if you understand that its power consists of what cannot be bombed."
I don't know where to start in describing the ramifications of his thesis. With more and more objects every day becoming part of networks, the world becomes new and full of possibilities. As translator programs develop...what will the need be to learn to speak a 2nd or 3rd language? We will someday have a platform (like FB or Google or Bing) that translates words instantly into the language of the person you are speaking to. We will essentially be able to speak dozens of languages! Our houses when thought of as part of a network become Airbnb vacation destinations. And so on.
Not every page is an "aha" moment and it gets a little ponderous in places. But there is a lot to be learned from reading this insightful book.
The thesis is we live in the age of Networks. His key insight is that the Seventh Sense is the ability to look at any object and see the way in which it is changed by connection. It is hard for me to articulate how paradigm-shifting this notion is. As one reviewer put it on Amazon: "Once the book teaches you to look at objects as the sum of their connections and not as isolated objects, you see the planet anew. Newspapers may not be doomed; they are just misunderstood by their custodians. Government is not, as Silicon Valley bros might tell us, irrelevant. It is of great importance, but only if it understands what its role must be in an age of dense connection. ISIS can be defeated, but only if you understand that its power consists of what cannot be bombed."
I don't know where to start in describing the ramifications of his thesis. With more and more objects every day becoming part of networks, the world becomes new and full of possibilities. As translator programs develop...what will the need be to learn to speak a 2nd or 3rd language? We will someday have a platform (like FB or Google or Bing) that translates words instantly into the language of the person you are speaking to. We will essentially be able to speak dozens of languages! Our houses when thought of as part of a network become Airbnb vacation destinations. And so on.
Not every page is an "aha" moment and it gets a little ponderous in places. But there is a lot to be learned from reading this insightful book.
May 17, 2016
Zen and the Art of Network Understanding
Josh Ramo writes like a poet, thinks like a grand strategist, and lives in the now like a zen master. He integrates history, technology, business and biography in a most original manner. I wish that policy-makers could understand this, and that business leaders would live by it.
Josh Ramo writes like a poet, thinks like a grand strategist, and lives in the now like a zen master. He integrates history, technology, business and biography in a most original manner. I wish that policy-makers could understand this, and that business leaders would live by it.
November 24, 2017
Some good insights, but this book is 75% too long. The author is so long winded and prone to barely-related tangents that it is a frustrating read.
If you must read this book:
* Skip the first three chapters completely. They are a disjointed and poorly presented argument for how important the seventh sense is without really defining it. What a mess.
* Read Ch4.3-7 for a discussion of the power of networks and how their connections / protocols can be more important than the platforms that they connect.
* Read Ch 5.1-2 for an interesting discussion of the creation of ARPANET; a network designed to be resilient to massive destruction in the event of a Soviet nuclear attack. A system that, once built, can never be undone.
Read Ch8.4-5 for how networks compress time and space; the difference between geography (a fixed feature of the world) and topology (an evolving feature of how geographic elements are connected).
* Read Ch8.8 for a three page summary of the Seventh Sense. Finally!
* Read 9.2 for a very brief but compelling argument against the idea that increasing interconnection will reduce or eliminate war. There is a fantastic analogy, which I will slightly spoil for you now, between how Athens destroyed Melos in the Peloponnesian War (“Surely you have noticed that you are an island and we control the ocean”) and how a future aggressor might threaten an opponent (“It should be obvious that you are merely a node and that I control the network”).
Those are the highlights of the book. Skip the first chapters for sure and skim the rest.
If you must read this book:
* Skip the first three chapters completely. They are a disjointed and poorly presented argument for how important the seventh sense is without really defining it. What a mess.
* Read Ch4.3-7 for a discussion of the power of networks and how their connections / protocols can be more important than the platforms that they connect.
* Read Ch 5.1-2 for an interesting discussion of the creation of ARPANET; a network designed to be resilient to massive destruction in the event of a Soviet nuclear attack. A system that, once built, can never be undone.
Read Ch8.4-5 for how networks compress time and space; the difference between geography (a fixed feature of the world) and topology (an evolving feature of how geographic elements are connected).
* Read Ch8.8 for a three page summary of the Seventh Sense. Finally!
* Read 9.2 for a very brief but compelling argument against the idea that increasing interconnection will reduce or eliminate war. There is a fantastic analogy, which I will slightly spoil for you now, between how Athens destroyed Melos in the Peloponnesian War (“Surely you have noticed that you are an island and we control the ocean”) and how a future aggressor might threaten an opponent (“It should be obvious that you are merely a node and that I control the network”).
Those are the highlights of the book. Skip the first chapters for sure and skim the rest.
August 21, 2018
Ramo works for Kissinger’s consulting firm and had spent quite a bit of time in China and learnt under a Chinese philosophical master and so he has good insight regarding both Eastern and Western thinking. This book described our age in which the Power of Networks is going to be all around us. A network is more than the sum of its individuals and behaves rather differently from each individual. So the internet and all the popular apps on it embrace the power of networks and they are increasingly becoming a winner-take-all marketplace. The most popular ones have the most data and therefore their AI would be better and that causes more people to use them. So everyone is on facebook and uses Google for searches. The connected system also leads to easy hacking by malign forces, and terrorists use networks to spread their extremist ideology. Just bombing some villages in Afghanistan is not going to do anything to the network, but rather paradoxically increase their power.
So we need to develop the seventh sense, that is the understanding of networks. Unfortunately Ramo did not really show us how other than to develop gates to limit the access of the network. I guess this book is a call to arms for us to start thinking about stuff the network way.
So we need to develop the seventh sense, that is the understanding of networks. Unfortunately Ramo did not really show us how other than to develop gates to limit the access of the network. I guess this book is a call to arms for us to start thinking about stuff the network way.
June 16, 2016
Wow... this was an interesting perceptual shift for me. I follow technology trends but to percieve power as moving from hierarchies to networks is a very big shift. This book made me grow paths in my brain.
February 26, 2020
A good book, providing elements of a philosophical approach to living in our increasingly networked world. Building on Nietzsche’s early 20th century concept of a Sixth Sense to apply the rhythms of history towards better understanding present challenges, the author puts forward the idea of a Seventh Sense as a means of adapting to the currents of a networked world and to better fit into a much more connected society. Using as a basis various Taoist and other eastern philosophies, with the necessary Platonic appreciations, this idea of a Seventh Sense would have us find acceptance of a connected world vice caution. at its dangers This approach is very technologist in its view of the world, rejecting outright the idea that overly complex networked systems can’t be, ultimately, mapped and understood. Fundamentally, it requires viewing the world not in a physical sense (e.g., how close you are geographically) but in a temporal or ethereal sense (e.g., how connected you are, how short the time between interactions). The author, though presenting the theory well, does not concentrate overly much on countering dissenting views. Namely being that our human need for the physical can’t always be satisfied in a non-physical world (for example: I’m sure the folks at Amazon delivery services don’t see the world as purely temporal). Likewise, the author readily admits that, taken to its logical conclusion, this theory would devolve significant life responsibilities onto a network space; something we’ve been reluctant to implement. Ultimately the Seventh Sense and it’s related projects represent a process which is more than just another human sense but instead a re-wickering of the entire concept of humanity. Still, despite these critiques, the arguments for better life adaptations to a networked world are well made. Highly recommended for those looking to better articulate the way complex networks affect our culture and living environment.
March 5, 2017
Masterful summary that incorporates system thinking and a historical sweep of the development and implications of connectivity--from the Scientific Revolution to the Enlightenment to the age of information of today. Ramo draws two main conclusions: 1) Connection changes the nature of an object and 2) leaders/citizens need to quickly develop the ability to see the powerful forces behind the connection, not just the object (and that this currently isn't happening quick enough).
I'd recommend the book to anyone interested in the political implications of the hyper-connected age ahead. As technological progress accelerates, the next wave of AI, IoT and access to data will require their users to know how to confront unprecedented dangers that come along with them.
The book can be a bit abstract and state more than obvious points, but its application to business, policy, foreign affairs, economic concepts, and philosophical thought is both relevant and valuable.
I'd recommend the book to anyone interested in the political implications of the hyper-connected age ahead. As technological progress accelerates, the next wave of AI, IoT and access to data will require their users to know how to confront unprecedented dangers that come along with them.
The book can be a bit abstract and state more than obvious points, but its application to business, policy, foreign affairs, economic concepts, and philosophical thought is both relevant and valuable.
January 19, 2018
It seems to be not a bad book, but for some reason it was not "hooked", the idea of the author seemed to be interesting, but I was reading the book to finish reading and not to learn more information from it, a strange feeling
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Вроде не плохая книжка, но почему-то не "зацепила", идея автора вроде была интересной, но дочитывал книгу чтоб дочитать а не узнать больше информации из нее, странное чувство
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Вроде не плохая книжка, но почему-то не "зацепила", идея автора вроде была интересной, но дочитывал книгу чтоб дочитать а не узнать больше информации из нее, странное чувство
July 13, 2016
This book is a must read for anyone wanting to have an idea of what is going on in today's world and how to understand it and deal with it. Thanks to modern technology - the internet, social media, the looming of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, etc., we are all connected to each other around the world. Distances have shrunk. We are becoming defined by our connections, our networks, in ways that are historically new and revolutionary, that make much of our social, economic and political structures obsolete, but their replacements are not yet on the scene. So many of our political and other leaders are clueless. We can look forward to all kinds of upheavals - for instance, look at the upheavals in today's Middle East. Today's Islamic Terrorists make much use of social media for connecting to potential recruits. The future will be shaped by those who are perceptive enough to realize our world's true state of affairs - who have what the author calls the "Seventh Sense". They are the people who will be shaping our future, hopefully for the better.
April 8, 2017
A great story about the shift of power, from central feudal systems to the enlightenment; a revolution that made us citizens and not objects. However in the age of networks/connection and AI we are moving into the age of "enmeshment" and risking to become objects again. This threatening evolution is very well elaborated in the book. Also the author indicates how to make the best of this revolution i.e. by becoming better citizens (not depend too much on by definition incompetent leaders for this new age, by capabilities or by objectives) and let humanity (not technology) drive. This is compelling, but the author remains very vague on how to achieve this, apart from the observation that we have to develop a "seventh sense" for the new reality. Notwithstanding for me a clear well documented wake-up call worth reading and applying.
December 18, 2016
Based on a recommendation from Tim Arnold, Director of the Jamestown Community College Library, I picked up The Seventh Sense* to read. It would satisfy the Modern Mrs. Darcy reading challenge goal of reading a book recommended by your local librarian or bookseller. I am not sure I would have found and read this book otherwise, but I am very glad I did. It is a book I would gladly recommend to others. It helps to explain some of the craziness that has been occurring in our nation and world. Read more
August 21, 2016
Started very slow but redeemed itself by the end. The second half of this book was MUCH more interesting to me than the first, capped by a pretty paradigm-altering premise about the new "gates" of the future.
April 24, 2018
Eminently Sensible and Prophetic
This should be required reading for policy makers, business school professors, and any one interested in how networks will increasing shape our thinking, feeling, and acting.
This should be required reading for policy makers, business school professors, and any one interested in how networks will increasing shape our thinking, feeling, and acting.
July 5, 2017
More later, quick note: Read the first half, the second half get's a bit into the weeds of technological concepts which, for me, were less of a surprise.
October 5, 2018
From the ultrapretentious author bio and after reading the book, which is not worth it, I couldn’t tell if the author is actually intelligent or just a major bs-er
September 10, 2017
This is a book on the growing indispensability of networks and how you need to align yourself to survive. Highly original ideas on gatekeeping and a pioneering effort.
November 20, 2017
This book is relative new and contains a lot of information about the developing technologies.
The author has a good insight to arrange the whole historical events that changed the world into a sharp perspectives. Besides there are quite a lot of knowledge about internet and hackers. i guess it must have something to do with the fact that the author moved to live in China. He has a wider vision to combine the existing western viewpoints, plus emerging eastern programming generations.
For the future, the author believes that belongs to those who are capable to compress time and space with the help of internet connection. He is worried about the future is in the hands of new generation of programmers and they have very different way to view this world and the gaps have been built between the ruling class and coders. We could only wish the positive result with the coming AI and robots, plus the internet power is new type of war.
Very interesting and informative book that i have learned something new.
...........................below paragraphs are copied from book
第七感就是透过事物看清连接如何改变事物的能力。无论是指 挥一支军队、经营一家“世界500强”的企业，还是设计一件伟大的艺术作品或 考虑孩子的教育问题，拥有第七感意味着可以看清其中所蕴含的力量。具备 这种能力，不仅会考量现代生活中非同寻常之处，也会思忖其中的寻常事物 （如一名士兵、一只股票、一门语言），并在瞬间看出连接改变了事物的本质。 医疗诊断机令人惊叹，它可以与信息数据库连接起来，使诊断更快完成，结果 也更准确甚至完美，实乃革命性的成果。将我们的身体、城市、想法甚至任何 事物相互连接起来，这一举动为世界带来了全新的动力。它创造了力量的高 度集中，也孕育出新的土壤，使复杂混乱局面的突然出现成为可能。来看看法 国哲学家保罗·维利里奥（Paul Virilio）的理论：“发明轮船的同时，也创造了海 难。发明飞机的同时，也产生了空难。”我们同样可以预见，发明网络的同时， 也带来了网络事故，并且还会有不少。与少有大变革的时代相比，意外、悲剧、 财富和希望的突然出现在现代似乎更常见了。我们面临着种种可能性和脆弱 性，只是我们还不能完全了解
网络时代来临前，恐惧汉语或西班牙语的本能是错误的，将汉语或西班 牙语作为力量之源在全球范围内实行教学的想法也是错误的，进而言之，要 求人人在美国都必须讲英语也是错误的。其实，“我们能否掌控这个快速运转 的智能连接语言协议”才是真正需要考虑的问题。和上述种种错误相似，我们 如今所担忧的许多威胁也被简单化和曲解了。害怕通货紧缩？害怕“伊斯兰 国”？害怕人民币？这些恐惧都反映出一种盲目的心理。金融、恐怖主义和货 币，只有在不断连接时才会发生质的改变；我们需要担忧的，其实是网络本 身。 网络会改变甚至摧毁坚不可摧的事物的本质，这样的场景今后将反复上 演。今天，新的连接呈爆炸性增长，开始在我们周围发挥作用——从医生如何 做手术到投资如何运作，一切都改变了。未能发现、理解并运用连接催生的新 力量，将会成为我们未来大灾大难的源头。其实，现在已经引发了一些最令人 头疼的危机。
。全球贸易、数据及金融网 络同时在做两件事：通过集中财富减少购买需求，同时增加许多重要货物的 供给。这两件事恰好可以对价格进行压制，这正是伯南克希望规避的。在需求 方面，问题显而易见。富者变得越来越富有。和中产阶级相比，占世界人口1% 的富人的边际消费倾向更低，即他们更不可能花费每份所得。把一美元送给 一位亿万富翁，他会存起来，而把它送给一位教师，他就会花出去。但2008年 金融危机时，资金市场的规划却使得宽松的货币政策的最大受益者变成那些 有钱阶层（原因之一是他们与信用、投资和信息网络相连接，而这是大多数普 通市民无法企及的）。同时，新技术、贸易、金融和信息网络促使中产阶级的工 作岗位被输往国外或被机器代替。因此，曾经繁荣发展的中产阶级，维持资本 主义制度稳定的重要因素，变得分崩离析。富人变得更富有，而其他国家的穷 人（或机器）却抢走了中产阶级的工作机会。尽管金融和货币刺激不断涌入
社会，却无点滴获益。“美国收入不均持续扩大，这令我很是担心。”在“量化宽 松”政策实施4年后，伯南克的继任者珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）在2015年说 道：“自19世纪以来就存在的收入不均问题在过去几十年里愈演愈烈。”即使 投入更多钱币，需求却反常地减少（至少从传统角度看，这是一种悖论）。
，网络还默默地潜伏在供应方面。切记，市场经常是通 过调整供需平衡来调整物价的。天气炎热时会有更多人想买柠檬水，这时在 海滩上卖柠檬水的小孩可以比下雨天时要价更高。2008年之后，许多“量化宽 松”的低息贷款被用来投资供应剧增的工程。许多石油钻塔都建起来了。整个 水力压裂行业都由低息贷款提供经费。许多大船的龙骨被铺设起来了。澳大 利亚和巴西的许多煤矿都被挖开了。在中国、越南和马来西亚，工厂都被建起 来了。这创造了一个历史性的供给过剩现象，所有东西都出现供给过剩，包括 飞机、铁矿和鞋子。低息贷款把平常无利可图的投资变为可能，技术将它们的 影响推向各地。像旅行房屋租赁网站空中食宿（Airbnb）或打车软件优步 （Uber），它们将原本无用的资源——备用卧室和空车座解放出来，并带进市 场，这是历史性的供给剧增。相似的技术也应用在制造业、物流和信息技术行 业等方面，这就好像在那个海滩上突然可以买到几百加仑 [2] 柠檬水，于是物 价崩溃了。同时由于需要面对珍妮特·耶伦所担心的那种不平等，需求也崩塌 了，没有人购买这些新的供应品。传统的经济政策无法拯救这个世界，不仅因 为它们已弹尽粮绝，而且因为问题源自网络。旧思维只会使经济危机变得更 糟。
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当高层领导指出，他们担心的主要是中国的崛起或俄罗斯的复仇， 或者如国务卿约翰·克里（John Kerry）所说，在我们所处的世界里，“恐怖主义 是主要的挑战”，他们都没抓到重点。对美国利益最根本的威胁不是中国，也 不是“基地”组织或者伊朗，而是网络本身的发展。由开关、芯片、数据、代码、
感应器、人工智能机器人、金融工具、贸易、货币等组成的网络是瞬息万变的， 就在你读这句话时，网络就已经不同了。它的架构是一个神奇的迷宫，充满变 化、传染性和不稳定性，也决定了它是危险的，同时又蕴含着巨大的机会。它 涉及我们可能提出的每一个问题。
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这个世界正进入恒定的、充满感应器的数据流中。它们监视你的家，好奇 地窥视你的心——它们还会记住并在长期的观察中分析、总结。当下这种强 有力的网络力量不是摩根索所说的“盲目的”力量，而是具有精确的视野。它 们总是能看到一切事物，比我们人类和我们的领导人看到的更多，而且它们 不会忘记。网络似乎有抑制不住的能量推动着它们去寻找和开发针孔大小的 细节。例如，2000年“基地”组织冷静地凝视美国航空网络，或者逐渐壮大的势 力正搜寻着国际秩序的漏洞，这些漏洞我们想都没想到，更不用说修补了。面 对网络组织的恐怖分子的暴行或者是大量的电脑错误，我们经常能发现一个 令人不安的事实：没有什么可以遏制这些连接的系统了。
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奥威尔曾说：“文明史在很大程度上是武器史。”这句话同样适用于网络 世界，而且让人忧心忡忡。网络已经很明显地变成了武器。虽然没有枪支弹 药，但是同样危险。所以，伟大的战略家应该了解、使用时代的资源。拿破仑对 火炮的使用了如指掌，毛泽东则对游击战游刃有余。不管怎么样，我们的全球 网络将会被用于追求力量。所以我们最好要考虑该如何把握它们的本质，如 何将它们变成我们的优势。最理想的状态是，重定冲突规则，将敌人打得措手 不及，毫无还手的余地。过去几百年间，改变实力和财富是通过军队入侵、舰 队炮轰和空军袭击来实现的。而在未来，只有拥有和使用连接、网络和机械智 能，才能拥有真正的终极影响力。
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我们已经可以看到，将力量融入网络会产生一种全新的布局。最终，这种 布局创造了一种全新的商业、财富和战争区，也留下了一个新颖且富有活力 的区域，在这个区域里，教育、医学和安全在一种十分高效的规划下、在一个 历史性的范围内得以保障。对我们来说，这些结构还是有些不能想象的，就好 似埃及奴隶也能投票一般。他们建议的可能，特别是激进且广为流传的礼仪， 往往会被掩盖，因为我们现在很难勾画出他们的样子，就像在1985年人们很 难想象搜索引擎一样。我们认为自己所处的时代是一个变革的时代，不是因 为你可以在手机上观看视频，而是因为你为什么可以在手机上看视频，这些 都暗示了我们身边那些陈旧且紧张的结构。但是现在构思一张权力图景，可 以有助于讲述权力的故事以及权力是如何随着时间的推移而改变的。
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这些最危险的、同时也是价值诱人的攻击被称为“零日攻击”（zero-day exploits）。当“零日攻击”被发布并在某些倒霉的网络或机器上疯狂衍生的时 候，它们带来的危险才会变得明显。初次意识到这个安全漏洞时就像被诊断 为癌症的第一天，然后变成了寻找治愈疗法的速度比赛。这种脆弱性代表着 计算机防火墙上的裂痕，这是制造商、系统工程师和安全专家经常无法注意 到的。黑客、间谍、软件破解者的梦想就是这种被称为“高级持续性威胁”的把 戏：机器中隐藏的后门程序，可以在更新升级、安全监测和系统清理中保存好 几年，迫使已经中毒的计算机去做用户不知道的事情。例如，将每一次击键的 副本发送到另一台机器上，自动向其他机器发动攻击，同时表现得像一台完 全正常的机器一样。
最厉害的“零日攻击”��是把恶意软件偷偷放入计算机中，而是利用已有 的、受信任的代码，找出其中微小的漏洞，将之扩大为巨大的通道，从中盗取 数据。这种攻击依赖偶然遗留在计算机系统里的错误，或看起来无害但可能 变得很危险的某些特性。所有的计算机工程师和软件设计师知道他们的系统 很脆弱。数学家们证明了，人们永远无法完全肯定一台联网的计算机是安全 的。例如，一部手机包含了超过1000万行的代码。系统运行着大量的云计算空 间（而谷歌或亚马逊云计算空间更大），每天更新并解决超高速运转的数据海 啸。就算是最好的程序员也会在100万行代码中遗留四五个错误。
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我们依赖的所有系统，那些我们自认为在掌控之中的系统——金融、政 治或数字系统，都可能中毒，或被我们看不见的和挣扎着想阻止的势力入侵。 我指的是你每天都会用到的系统，如社交网络、股票市场等。我的意思是，要 非常小心对待你所连接的事物，不只因为有黑客。总统竞选可以通过数据精 确筛选目标市民，从而操纵票选结果。金融集团可以有借口除去市场中公平 竞争的环境，因为他们拥有巨大的数据访问渠道。网络不再能被看作无害的 了。布拉图斯是对的，我们并不完全了解任何系统，直到它被破解。我们要等 到世界都被破解入侵后才了解他们建立的系统吗？我希望不是。这就是本书 成书的目的。
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当今网络时代，出现了一个相似的“三难”困境：系统能够做到迅速、开放 或者安全，但我们只能同时取其二。一个真正安全的计算机网络可以同时做 到开放，但速度会很慢，它必须像银行保安检查落后社区的顾客一样，细心地 查看每个数据包和每一条指令。拿机场来说，你想要它快捷同时非常安全，那 这样它就不会很开放。如今，在大多情况下，我们想把市场、国家、数据变得安 全、快捷。在我看来，这会让系统更加封闭。现在的贸易谈判便是如此：近些年 的贸易谈判大多私下进行，以保证成功。金融业也是一样，比起那些依赖公开 信息的人，掌握内部优势的人更容易占上风。“新阶层”之所以不同，不仅因为 他们掌控着不可见的连接系统，更因为他们握有强大的权力来源。 这导致了一个奇怪的结果：从前，历史就在人们眼前发生，因此人们不可 能错过大规模的战争；革命性的事件会成为新闻头条，因此科学上的突破创 新会受到人们的广泛分享和讨论。当这个星球发生重要变化时，人们会有所 意识并加以理解。在雅典中心广场上，公众观看并记录伯里克利（Pericles）在 阵亡将士葬礼上的演说，托马斯·杰斐逊在巴黎遇到的暴乱也明显预示着即 将来临的改变。如今，在网络系统的中心，也就是“黑匣子”内部发生的微妙变 化，也会对外部世界产生具有历史意义的影响。权力的转移在我们尚未意识 到时就已经发生，就算有所意识，可能也无法认清它的力量。计算机代码设 计、搜索算法、数字货币结构、DNA改造规则，所有这些事物的决定权都将掌 握在“新阶层”的手中，而这些人却在很大程度上游离了我们现在所能知晓并 控制的机器、公司和政府。几年前，我惊恐地意识到，将来，生命中最重要的事 情，都会在我们不知情的情况下发生。
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人类对速度更快、利润更高的贸易需求，表明从马到火车再到汽车和喷 气飞机的提速，是现代市场和现代生活的一个必然特性。贾内尔指出，我们应 当期待这个趋势一直持续下去。那些掌控了速度的人会赢得巨大的财富。快 人一步将享有竞争优势，快人十步则会带来决定性的优势，如哲学家保罗·维 利里奥（Paul Virilio）所言：“十足的速度，代表绝对的力量。”“时空压缩”这个 概念措辞巧妙，就像一个魔术把戏的名字。要不改名叫“压缩了的空间”，或 者“减少了的时间”？这种恰当的措辞背后，是发生了革命性剧烈变化的运转 机制。在人类历史上的大部分时间里，对力量的争夺都围绕着对空间和领地 的控制，而这种革命尽管令人难以置信，却意味着对权力的争夺将会变为对 时间的控制。
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距离、速度和权力的交织改变了事物的本质，时空压缩理论的提出人贾 内尔早已预见到这一点。他称之为“位置效用”（locational utility），意思是某件 事物与我们之间的“距离”尽管没有改变，却因连接和速度的增加离我们越来 越近，变得更加强大有用，息息相关。一枚三个小时就要落地的核弹和一枚三 个月才能落地的核弹，几乎是完全不同的物体。亚当·斯密在《道德情操论》 （Theory of Moral Sentiments ）中说过一句名言，对大多数人来说，比起听到 100万中国人失去生命来说，失去自己的半根手指会更痛苦。在这个十几亿中 国人离我们只有区区数纳秒的时代，这句话开始呈现出别样的意味。连接改 变事物的本质，这是说，网络会改变所接触事物的位置效用。当连接使物体瞬 间清晰可见时，这个物体的潜力就彻底改变了。也难怪，在加快世界的进程 中，大量的财富被创造出来。我们现在的担忧，也是制订世界或商业策略时面 对的难题，即我们的拓扑地图尚需一段时间才能趋于稳定。还有很多东西有 待连接，许多拓扑结构有待构建。
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丹尼·希利斯早期思考长今钟时说过这样一句话：“时间就像一部车，而 你就在这部车上。”他说得没错，在这个相互连接的时代，这部车就在一条拓 扑轨道上运行。你的“迅速”将决定你乘坐什么样的车，进而决定你能取得多 大的成功。河流、海洋和山川构成了不同的地理景观，同样，我们居住的拓扑 地区也拥有各自的特性。有的地区突飞猛进，有的地区则受到政治的钳制。圣 菲 [2] 和孟买的市民或许会选择不同的方式压缩时间。但是我想，每个人都会 怀有这样的渴望：用更少的消耗，做更多的事情。时间的压缩使我们有可能花 费更少时间，活得更精彩。德国哲学家彼得·斯劳特戴克（Peter Sloterdijk）和荷 兰建筑师雷姆·库哈斯（Rem Koolhaas）描绘过这样的现象：有些人已经可以 利用头等舱机票和移民局预批函在机场和边境自由出入时，有些人还在难民
营和贫穷陷阱中苦苦挣扎。新秩序中的这些赢家被称作“动力精英”（kinetic elite）。这些人是拓扑旅程中的头等舱乘客，拥有通向一把特殊的、流畅的拓 扑结构的金钥匙，一把可以给予他们在金融和信息方面的优势，以及消除空 间和捕捉时间能力的金钥匙。 网络设计的专业术语中，有一个词恰如其分地描述了这种现象。这个词 语源于一种特殊代码，目前的数据库多有采用，我们也因此得以理清目前不 断出现的种种变化。这个词叫“映射化简”（MapReduce），2008年由谷歌公司 最早提出，由两个广为人知的计算机性能组成：“映射”（Map）和“化 简”（Reduce）。如果贾内尔和希利斯曾经遇到，那么他们也会构想出这样的程 序。其实，“映射化简”所做的工作，就是将诸如“鲍勃·史密斯住在哪儿”这类问 题指向答案，通过瞬间读取成千上万台服务器上的数据，缩减问题和答案之 间的空间距离。然而，“映射化简”的隐含功能，就是在仅仅几微秒的时间里完 成旧式机器要花很多年才能完成的事情。它能将大堆松散的数据简化为片刻 便能看懂的图表。如果说在一个多世纪以前，对于亨利·詹姆斯和维多利亚时 代的高贵精英来说，最能体现时代精神的词汇是“夏日”“午后”，那么我们这个 时代的词汇可能就是“映射化简”。这是一个代表整个生活方式和思考方式的 魔力代码，完美地体现了时间和空间的缩减，以及对全部旧地图的压缩。
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科学家们认为，当与计算机交互时，人性的竞争优势就不复存在了，但研 究者同样发现了操纵这种特性的方式。悲伤的电影，战争圣歌，硬摇滚音乐， 这些都会使实验者的情绪发生变化，进而改变实验结果。增加睾酮会减少妥 协的发生；向实验者展示家庭照片或在实验者面前放置镜子会使实验者表现 得更为慷慨。因此，想象一下，将这项研究结果融入人机交互之中：计算机依 指令为衰竭的肝脏提供医疗选项，它得出的结论是进行肝脏移植没有意义。 机器会在好几周之后才告诉病人这一结论，在向病人传达这一结果之前，机 器会运用其人工智能向其展示度假照片，播放能够打动人心的音乐，操纵新 闻推送的数据流，让他看到更多关于慈善举动的新闻。同时，它运行已经得以 实际运用的语言分析神经网络技术，偷听病人的客户支持电话以及病人和医 生的聊天，以观察病人对自身健康的了解情况，然后再告诉病人这个他可能 不会轻易地从一名医生那里所接受的事实：对不起，您不适合肝脏移植。这样 会更容易接受这一结果。我们可能对回形针制造机的优化不太在意。机器优 化为我们提供更好的公共服务，医疗服务会因此更有效率，但与此同时，也有 可能会在这一过程中判处你的死刑。 优化医疗服务支出可能会是算法命令的具体指向吗？随着时间推移，一 个优化医疗卫生服务的人工智能肯定能发现最危害人体健康的行为，如吸 烟、长期坐沙发、驾驶等。它是否会开始寻找“改善”我们生活的方式，就像它 折弯每一个回形针一样，让我们按照它的设想生活？对于具有理性的机器来 说，从肝源分配的决定到关闭酒厂并没有什么区别。但如果一台机器真的 会“思考”，文奇敢肯定的是，机器将很快得出它的创造者自身的局限将会约 束其行为的结论。此时，人工智能会转而思考如何挣脱这些束缚。它会像“深 蓝” [1] 一样，编程策划自己的越狱行动。人们也许会想办法扼杀智能机器，但 我们可能是在和从未有过的强大力量做斗争。你可能会说：“一台机器不可能 完成编程之外的事情吧。”真的是这样吗？看看我们自以为能够掌控的网络 是如何紧紧缠绕着我们，并时不时脱离我们的控制的吧！
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The author has a good insight to arrange the whole historical events that changed the world into a sharp perspectives. Besides there are quite a lot of knowledge about internet and hackers. i guess it must have something to do with the fact that the author moved to live in China. He has a wider vision to combine the existing western viewpoints, plus emerging eastern programming generations.
For the future, the author believes that belongs to those who are capable to compress time and space with the help of internet connection. He is worried about the future is in the hands of new generation of programmers and they have very different way to view this world and the gaps have been built between the ruling class and coders. We could only wish the positive result with the coming AI and robots, plus the internet power is new type of war.
Very interesting and informative book that i have learned something new.
...........................below paragraphs are copied from book
第七感就是透过事物看清连接如何改变事物的能力。无论是指 挥一支军队、经营一家“世界500强”的企业，还是设计一件伟大的艺术作品或 考虑孩子的教育问题，拥有第七感意味着可以看清其中所蕴含的力量。具备 这种能力，不仅会考量现代生活中非同寻常之处，也会思忖其中的寻常事物 （如一名士兵、一只股票、一门语言），并在瞬间看出连接改变了事物的本质。 医疗诊断机令人惊叹，它可以与信息数据库连接起来，使诊断更快完成，结果 也更准确甚至完美，实乃革命性的成果。将我们的身体、城市、想法甚至任何 事物相互连接起来，这一举动为世界带来了全新的动力。它创造了力量的高 度集中，也孕育出新的土壤，使复杂混乱局面的突然出现成为可能。来看看法 国哲学家保罗·维利里奥（Paul Virilio）的理论：“发明轮船的同时，也创造了海 难。发明飞机的同时，也产生了空难。”我们同样可以预见，发明网络的同时， 也带来了网络事故，并且还会有不少。与少有大变革的时代相比，意外、悲剧、 财富和希望的突然出现在现代似乎更常见了。我们面临着种种可能性和脆弱 性，只是我们还不能完全了解
网络时代来临前，恐惧汉语或西班牙语的本能是错误的，将汉语或西班 牙语作为力量之源在全球范围内实行教学的想法也是错误的，进而言之，要 求人人在美国都必须讲英语也是错误的。其实，“我们能否掌控这个快速运转 的智能连接语言协议”才是真正需要考虑的问题。和上述种种错误相似，我们 如今所担忧的许多威胁也被简单化和曲解了。害怕通货紧缩？害怕“伊斯兰 国”？害怕人民币？这些恐惧都反映出一种盲目的心理。金融、恐怖主义和货 币，只有在不断连接时才会发生质的改变；我们需要担忧的，其实是网络本 身。 网络会改变甚至摧毁坚不可摧的事物的本质，这样的场景今后将反复上 演。今天，新的连接呈爆炸性增长，开始在我们周围发挥作用——从医生如何 做手术到投资如何运作，一切都改变了。未能发现、理解并运用连接催生的新 力量，将会成为我们未来大灾大难的源头。其实，现在已经引发了一些最令人 头疼的危机。
。全球贸易、数据及金融网 络同时在做两件事：通过集中财富减少购买需求，同时增加许多重要货物的 供给。这两件事恰好可以对价格进行压制，这正是伯南克希望规避的。在需求 方面，问题显而易见。富者变得越来越富有。和中产阶级相比，占世界人口1% 的富人的边际消费倾向更低，即他们更不可能花费每份所得。把一美元送给 一位亿万富翁，他会存起来，而把它送给一位教师，他就会花出去。但2008年 金融危机时，资金市场的规划却使得宽松的货币政策的最大受益者变成那些 有钱阶层（原因之一是他们与信用、投资和信息网络相连接，而这是大多数普 通市民无法企及的）。同时，新技术、贸易、金融和信息网络促使中产阶级的工 作岗位被输往国外或被机器代替。因此，曾经繁荣发展的中产阶级，维持资本 主义制度稳定的重要因素，变得分崩离析。富人变得更富有，而其他国家的穷 人（或机器）却抢走了中产阶级的工作机会。尽管金融和货币刺激不断涌入
社会，却无点滴获益。“美国收入不均持续扩大，这令我很是担心。”在“量化宽 松”政策实施4年后，伯南克的继任者珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）在2015年说 道：“自19世纪以来就存在的收入不均问题在过去几十年里愈演愈烈。”即使 投入更多钱币，需求却反常地减少（至少从传统角度看，这是一种悖论）。
，网络还默默地潜伏在供应方面。切记，市场经常是通 过调整供需平衡来调整物价的。天气炎热时会有更多人想买柠檬水，这时在 海滩上卖柠檬水的小孩可以比下雨天时要价更高。2008年之后，许多“量化宽 松”的低息贷款被用来投资供应剧增的工程。许多石油钻塔都建起来了。整个 水力压裂行业都由低息贷款提供经费。许多大船的龙骨被铺设起来了。澳大 利亚和巴西的许多煤矿都被挖开了。在中国、越南和马来西亚，工厂都被建起 来了。这创造了一个历史性的供给过剩现象，所有东西都出现供给过剩，包括 飞机、铁矿和鞋子。低息贷款把平常无利可图的投资变为可能，技术将它们的 影响推向各地。像旅行房屋租赁网站空中食宿（Airbnb）或打车软件优步 （Uber），它们将原本无用的资源——备用卧室和空车座解放出来，并带进市 场，这是历史性的供给剧增。相似的技术也应用在制造业、物流和信息技术行 业等方面，这就好像在那个海滩上突然可以买到几百加仑 [2] 柠檬水，于是物 价崩溃了。同时由于需要面对珍妮特·耶伦所担心的那种不平等，需求也崩塌 了，没有人购买这些新的供应品。传统的经济政策无法拯救这个世界，不仅因 为它们已弹尽粮绝，而且因为问题源自网络。旧思维只会使经济危机变得更 糟。
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当高层领导指出，他们担心的主要是中国的崛起或俄罗斯的复仇， 或者如国务卿约翰·克里（John Kerry）所说，在我们所处的世界里，“恐怖主义 是主要的挑战”，他们都没抓到重点。对美国利益最根本的威胁不是中国，也 不是“基地”组织或者伊朗，而是网络本身的发展。由开关、芯片、数据、代码、
感应器、人工智能机器人、金融工具、贸易、货币等组成的网络是瞬息万变的， 就在你读这句话时，网络就已经不同了。它的架构是一个神奇的迷宫，充满变 化、传染性和不稳定性，也决定了它是危险的，同时又蕴含着巨大的机会。它 涉及我们可能提出的每一个问题。
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这个世界正进入恒定的、充满感应器的数据流中。它们监视你的家，好奇 地窥视你的心——它们还会记住并在长期的观察中分析、总结。当下这种强 有力的网络力量不是摩根索所说的“盲目的”力量，而是具有精确的视野。它 们总是能看到一切事物，比我们人类和我们的领导人看到的更多，而且它们 不会忘记。网络似乎有抑制不住的能量推动着它们去寻找和开发针孔大小的 细节。例如，2000年“基地”组织冷静地凝视美国航空网络，或者逐渐壮大的势 力正搜寻着国际秩序的漏洞，这些漏洞我们想都没想到，更不用说修补了。面 对网络组织的恐怖分子的暴行或者是大量的电脑错误，我们经常能发现一个 令人不安的事实：没有什么可以遏制这些连接的系统了。
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奥威尔曾说：“文明史在很大程度上是武器史。”这句话同样适用于网络 世界，而且让人忧心忡忡。网络已经很明显地变成了武器。虽然没有枪支弹 药，但是同样危险。所以，伟大的战略家应该了解、使用时代的资源。拿破仑对 火炮的使用了如指掌，毛泽东则对游击战游刃有余。不管怎么样，我们的全球 网络将会被用于追求力量。所以我们最好要考虑该如何把握它们的本质，如 何将它们变成我们的优势。最理想的状态是，重定冲突规则，将敌人打得措手 不及，毫无还手的余地。过去几百年间，改变实力和财富是通过军队入侵、舰 队炮轰和空军袭击来实现的。而在未来，只有拥有和使用连接、网络和机械智 能，才能拥有真正的终极影响力。
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我们已经可以看到，将力量融入网络会产生一种全新的布局。最终，这种 布局创造了一种全新的商业、财富和战争区，也留下了一个新颖且富有活力 的区域，在这个区域里，教育、医学和安全在一种十分高效的规划下、在一个 历史性的范围内得以保障。对我们来说，这些结构还是有些不能想象的，就好 似埃及奴隶也能投票一般。他们建议的可能，特别是激进且广为流传的礼仪， 往往会被掩盖，因为我们现在很难勾画出他们的样子，就像在1985年人们很 难想象搜索引擎一样。我们认为自己所处的时代是一个变革的时代，不是因 为你可以在手机上观看视频，而是因为你为什么可以在手机上看视频，这些 都暗示了我们身边那些陈旧且紧张的结构。但是现在构思一张权力图景，可 以有助于讲述权力的故事以及权力是如何随着时间的推移而改变的。
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这些最危险的、同时也是价值诱人的攻击被称为“零日攻击”（zero-day exploits）。当“零日攻击”被发布并在某些倒霉的网络或机器上疯狂衍生的时 候，它们带来的危险才会变得明显。初次意识到这个安全漏洞时就像被诊断 为癌症的第一天，然后变成了寻找治愈疗法的速度比赛。这种脆弱性代表着 计算机防火墙上的裂痕，这是制造商、系统工程师和安全专家经常无法注意 到的。黑客、间谍、软件破解者的梦想就是这种被称为“高级持续性威胁”的把 戏：机器中隐藏的后门程序，可以在更新升级、安全监测和系统清理中保存好 几年，迫使已经中毒的计算机去做用户不知道的事情。例如，将每一次击键的 副本发送到另一台机器上，自动向其他机器发动攻击，同时表现得像一台完 全正常的机器一样。
最厉害的“零日攻击”��是把恶意软件偷偷放入计算机中，而是利用已有 的、受信任的代码，找出其中微小的漏洞，将之扩大为巨大的通道，从中盗取 数据。这种攻击依赖偶然遗留在计算机系统里的错误，或看起来无害但可能 变得很危险的某些特性。所有的计算机工程师和软件设计师知道他们的系统 很脆弱。数学家们证明了，人们永远无法完全肯定一台联网的计算机是安全 的。例如，一部手机包含了超过1000万行的代码。系统运行着大量的云计算空 间（而谷歌或亚马逊云计算空间更大），每天更新并解决超高速运转的数据海 啸。就算是最好的程序员也会在100万行代码中遗留四五个错误。
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我们依赖的所有系统，那些我们自认为在掌控之中的系统——金融、政 治或数字系统，都可能中毒，或被我们看不见的和挣扎着想阻止的势力入侵。 我指的是你每天都会用到的系统，如社交网络、股票市场等。我的意思是，要 非常小心对待你所连接的事物，不只因为有黑客。总统竞选可以通过数据精 确筛选目标市民，从而操纵票选结果。金融集团可以有借口除去市场中公平 竞争的环境，因为他们拥有巨大的数据访问渠道。网络不再能被看作无害的 了。布拉图斯是对的，我们并不完全了解任何系统，直到它被破解。我们要等 到世界都被破解入侵后才了解他们建立的系统吗？我希望不是。这就是本书 成书的目的。
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当今网络时代，出现了一个相似的“三难”困境：系统能够做到迅速、开放 或者安全，但我们只能同时取其二。一个真正安全的计算机网络可以同时做 到开放，但速度会很慢，它必须像银行保安检查落后社区的顾客一样，细心地 查看每个数据包和每一条指令。拿机场来说，你想要它快捷同时非常安全，那 这样它就不会很开放。如今，在大多情况下，我们想把市场、国家、数据变得安 全、快捷。在我看来，这会让系统更加封闭。现在的贸易谈判便是如此：近些年 的贸易谈判大多私下进行，以保证成功。金融业也是一样，比起那些依赖公开 信息的人，掌握内部优势的人更容易占上风。“新阶层”之所以不同，不仅因为 他们掌控着不可见的连接系统，更因为他们握有强大的权力来源。 这导致了一个奇怪的结果：从前，历史就在人们眼前发生，因此人们不可 能错过大规模的战争；革命性的事件会成为新闻头条，因此科学上的突破创 新会受到人们的广泛分享和讨论。当这个星球发生重要变化时，人们会有所 意识并加以理解。在雅典中心广场上，公众观看并记录伯里克利（Pericles）在 阵亡将士葬礼上的演说，托马斯·杰斐逊在巴黎遇到的暴乱也明显预示着即 将来临的改变。如今，在网络系统的中心，也就是“黑匣子”内部发生的微妙变 化，也会对外部世界产生具有历史意义的影响。权力的转移在我们尚未意识 到时就已经发生，就算有所意识，可能也无法认清它的力量。计算机代码设 计、搜索算法、数字货币结构、DNA改造规则，所有这些事物的决定权都将掌 握在“新阶层”的手中，而这些人却在很大程度上游离了我们现在所能知晓并 控制的机器、公司和政府。几年前，我惊恐地意识到，将来，生命中最重要的事 情，都会在我们不知情的情况下发生。
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人类对速度更快、利润更高的贸易需求，表明从马到火车再到汽车和喷 气飞机的提速，是现代市场和现代生活的一个必然特性。贾内尔指出，我们应 当期待这个趋势一直持续下去。那些掌控了速度的人会赢得巨大的财富。快 人一步将享有竞争优势，快人十步则会带来决定性的优势，如哲学家保罗·维 利里奥（Paul Virilio）所言：“十足的速度，代表绝对的力量。”“时空压缩”这个 概念措辞巧妙，就像一个魔术把戏的名字。要不改名叫“压缩了的空间”，或 者“减少了的时间”？这种恰当的措辞背后，是发生了革命性剧烈变化的运转 机制。在人类历史上的大部分时间里，对力量的争夺都围绕着对空间和领地 的控制，而这种革命尽管令人难以置信，却意味着对权力的争夺将会变为对 时间的控制。
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距离、速度和权力的交织改变了事物的本质，时空压缩理论的提出人贾 内尔早已预见到这一点。他称之为“位置效用”（locational utility），意思是某件 事物与我们之间的“距离”尽管没有改变，却因连接和速度的增加离我们越来 越近，变得更加强大有用，息息相关。一枚三个小时就要落地的核弹和一枚三 个月才能落地的核弹，几乎是完全不同的物体。亚当·斯密在《道德情操论》 （Theory of Moral Sentiments ）中说过一句名言，对大多数人来说，比起听到 100万中国人失去生命来说，失去自己的半根手指会更痛苦。在这个十几亿中 国人离我们只有区区数纳秒的时代，这句话开始呈现出别样的意味。连接改 变事物的本质，这是说，网络会改变所接触事物的位置效用。当连接使物体瞬 间清晰可见时，这个物体的潜力就彻底改变了。也难怪，在加快世界的进程 中，大量的财富被创造出来。我们现在的担忧，也是制订世界或商业策略时面 对的难题，即我们的拓扑地图尚需一段时间才能趋于稳定。还有很多东西有 待连接，许多拓扑结构有待构建。
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丹尼·希利斯早期思考长今钟时说过这样一句话：“时间就像一部车，而 你就在这部车上。”他说得没错，在这个相互连接的时代，这部车就在一条拓 扑轨道上运行。你的“迅速”将决定你乘坐什么样的车，进而决定你能取得多 大的成功。河流、海洋和山川构成了不同的地理景观，同样，我们居住的拓扑 地区也拥有各自的特性。有的地区突飞猛进，有的地区则受到政治的钳制。圣 菲 [2] 和孟买的市民或许会选择不同的方式压缩时间。但是我想，每个人都会 怀有这样的渴望：用更少的消耗，做更多的事情。时间的压缩使我们有可能花 费更少时间，活得更精彩。德国哲学家彼得·斯劳特戴克（Peter Sloterdijk）和荷 兰建筑师雷姆·库哈斯（Rem Koolhaas）描绘过这样的现象：有些人已经可以 利用头等舱机票和移民局预批函在机场和边境自由出入时，有些人还在难民
营和贫穷陷阱中苦苦挣扎。新秩序中的这些赢家被称作“动力精英”（kinetic elite）。这些人是拓扑旅程中的头等舱乘客，拥有通向一把特殊的、流畅的拓 扑结构的金钥匙，一把可以给予他们在金融和信息方面的优势，以及消除空 间和捕捉时间能力的金钥匙。 网络设计的专业术语中，有一个词恰如其分地描述了这种现象。这个词 语源于一种特殊代码，目前的数据库多有采用，我们也因此得以理清目前不 断出现的种种变化。这个词叫“映射化简”（MapReduce），2008年由谷歌公司 最早提出，由两个广为人知的计算机性能组成：“映射”（Map）和“化 简”（Reduce）。如果贾内尔和希利斯曾经遇到，那么他们也会构想出这样的程 序。其实，“映射化简”所做的工作，就是将诸如“鲍勃·史密斯住在哪儿”这类问 题指向答案，通过瞬间读取成千上万台服务器上的数据，缩减问题和答案之 间的空间距离。然而，“映射化简”的隐含功能，就是在仅仅几微秒的时间里完 成旧式机器要花很多年才能完成的事情。它能将大堆松散的数据简化为片刻 便能看懂的图表。如果说在一个多世纪以前，对于亨利·詹姆斯和维多利亚时 代的高贵精英来说，最能体现时代精神的词汇是“夏日”“午后”，那么我们这个 时代的词汇可能就是“映射化简”。这是一个代表整个生活方式和思考方式的 魔力代码，完美地体现了时间和空间的缩减，以及对全部旧地图的压缩。
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科学家们认为，当与计算机交互时，人性的竞争优势就不复存在了，但研 究者同样发现了操纵这种特性的方式。悲伤的电影，战争圣歌，硬摇滚音乐， 这些都会使实验者的情绪发生变化，进而改变实验结果。增加睾酮会减少妥 协的发生；向实验者展示家庭照片或在实验者面前放置镜子会使实验者表现 得更为慷慨。因此，想象一下，将这项研究结果融入人机交互之中：计算机依 指令为衰竭的肝脏提供医疗选项，它得出的结论是进行肝脏移植没有意义。 机器会在好几周之后才告诉病人这一结论，在向病人传达这一结果之前，机 器会运用其人工智能向其展示度假照片，播放能够打动人心的音乐，操纵新 闻推送的数据流，让他看到更多关于慈善举动的新闻。同时，它运行已经得以 实际运用的语言分析神经网络技术，偷听病人的客户支持电话以及病人和医 生的聊天，以观察病人对自身健康的了解情况，然后再告诉病人这个他可能 不会轻易地从一名医生那里所接受的事实：对不起，您不适合肝脏移植。这样 会更容易接受这一结果。我们可能对回形针制造机的优化不太在意。机器优 化为我们提供更好的公共服务，医疗服务会因此更有效率，但与此同时，也有 可能会在这一过程中判处你的死刑。 优化医疗服务支出可能会是算法命令的具体指向吗？随着时间推移，一 个优化医疗卫生服务的人工智能肯定能发现最危害人体健康的行为，如吸 烟、长期坐沙发、驾驶等。它是否会开始寻找“改善”我们生活的方式，就像它 折弯每一个回形针一样，让我们按照它的设想生活？对于具有理性的机器来 说，从肝源分配的决定到关闭酒厂并没有什么区别。但如果一台机器真的 会“思考”，文奇敢肯定的是，机器将很快得出它的创造者自身的局限将会约 束其行为的结论。此时，人工智能会转而思考如何挣脱这些束缚。它会像“深 蓝” [1] 一样，编程策划自己的越狱行动。人们也许会想办法扼杀智能机器，但 我们可能是在和从未有过的强大力量做斗争。你可能会说：“一台机器不可能 完成编程之外的事情吧。”真的是这样吗？看看我们自以为能够掌控的网络 是如何紧紧缠绕着我们，并时不时脱离我们的控制的吧！
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September 3, 2016
This book describes the accelerating nature of networks which technology has enabled throughout the history - from ancient marketplaces to transport to telegram to internet. Network dynamics have reversed the law of diminishing returns in economics where maturing market washes away the margins of the businesses competing in the market.
This trend has made possible for companies to benefit greatly where bigger networks give bigger rewards to the gatekeepers of these networks. Other books have named these networks matchmakers, platforms, marketplaces and so on. Most obvious examples of these gatekeepers are giant internet companies like Facebook, Amazon, Google, Uber etc. The success of these companies can be explained with their obsession to increase the size of the networks relentlessly and accelerate or shorten the connections between the participants in the network. For example Mark Zuckerberg's ambition to connect all of humanity or Larry Page's obsession with the speed and relevancy of Google search results. Also Jeff Bezo's quest to shorten the shipping times of items to the extremes of 1-2 hours where people are opting to ordering from Amazon instead of going to nearby retail store.
Like a lot of technology related books these days this book also concluded with an overview of artificial intelligence's possibilities and dangers which has the potential to kick these network dynamics into overdrive.
The teachings in this book can be very beneficial to policy makers & business leaders to understand what are the forces at work that shape our present and future. Author calls this understanding and intuition to thrive in this environment "seventh sense". And to be honest I wouldn't trust someone with the power to lead a country (or a company) that doesn't have this "seventh sense".
This trend has made possible for companies to benefit greatly where bigger networks give bigger rewards to the gatekeepers of these networks. Other books have named these networks matchmakers, platforms, marketplaces and so on. Most obvious examples of these gatekeepers are giant internet companies like Facebook, Amazon, Google, Uber etc. The success of these companies can be explained with their obsession to increase the size of the networks relentlessly and accelerate or shorten the connections between the participants in the network. For example Mark Zuckerberg's ambition to connect all of humanity or Larry Page's obsession with the speed and relevancy of Google search results. Also Jeff Bezo's quest to shorten the shipping times of items to the extremes of 1-2 hours where people are opting to ordering from Amazon instead of going to nearby retail store.
Like a lot of technology related books these days this book also concluded with an overview of artificial intelligence's possibilities and dangers which has the potential to kick these network dynamics into overdrive.
The teachings in this book can be very beneficial to policy makers & business leaders to understand what are the forces at work that shape our present and future. Author calls this understanding and intuition to thrive in this environment "seventh sense". And to be honest I wouldn't trust someone with the power to lead a country (or a company) that doesn't have this "seventh sense".
December 31, 2016
This book gives me a refreshing perspective in looking at this world and all the new development that is happening. Some of the events that are unfolding in today's world are unnerving and very frequently surprising. The author, Joshua Cooper Ramo, whom I found intelligent and knowledgeable, thinks that a lot of these surprising developments are because of networks. He says that we are entering the Age of the Great Connection, having profound impact to society and causing the shift of power in the same order of magnitude as the previous major shifts and revolutions in human history, like the Agrarian Revolution, The Enlightenment, The Scientific Discovery and Industrial Revolution.
There are many big ideas and concepts from this book. One of the key ideas is that because of network and fast connection that has been put in place, time is getting more and more compressed, in the same effect as space was compressed during the Industrial Revolution. With all objects connected, things become more complex (as opposed to complicated) in that they are much harder to predict. There will be dramatic shifts of power and many rules from the previous age will not apply. As we can see in recent developments, in politics, in global affairs, in business and technology, with network, small forces can make a big impact and often catch people by surprise.
The title of the book, "The Seventh Sense", refers to the ability of a certain group of people, a new caste as referred by the author (joining the merchants, soldiers and sages in the previous age), to look at things, situations and problems with the network and instant connection sensibility. These are the people who will win in this new era.
While this book mainly focuses mostly about global political issues, we can also apply these learnings and insights at an individual level.
There are many big ideas and concepts from this book. One of the key ideas is that because of network and fast connection that has been put in place, time is getting more and more compressed, in the same effect as space was compressed during the Industrial Revolution. With all objects connected, things become more complex (as opposed to complicated) in that they are much harder to predict. There will be dramatic shifts of power and many rules from the previous age will not apply. As we can see in recent developments, in politics, in global affairs, in business and technology, with network, small forces can make a big impact and often catch people by surprise.
The title of the book, "The Seventh Sense", refers to the ability of a certain group of people, a new caste as referred by the author (joining the merchants, soldiers and sages in the previous age), to look at things, situations and problems with the network and instant connection sensibility. These are the people who will win in this new era.
While this book mainly focuses mostly about global political issues, we can also apply these learnings and insights at an individual level.
August 17, 2019
Several good topics and discussions populate this book in which Ramo argues that the increasingly networked complexity of the modern world demands coup-d’oeil leadership possessed of nuanced understandings of culture, history, identity, & influence to enable successful long term interaction within a system. The author’s prime topic, examination of gated network orders and complex adaptive systems, is especially useful to policy/strategy planners & practitioners; his discussion of descriptive and representational AI, the cyber-origins of system thinking, & his closing chapter tangent into the philosophical dimensions of complex interaction are likewise fodder for reflection.
Ramo loses me though in setting his argument about the new importance of networks in opposition to what is currently preached or practiced. His seemingly deliberate mischaracterization of “smart power,” as if to make it a foil for a networked order yet to be realized, misses an opportunity to discuss how smart power relates to systems & how it could have been used in long-term policy (I’d argue the concept has not been successfully or comprehensible embraced by any recent US administration). Ramo compounds this conceptual contrast of apples and Apples by then describing the policy employment of a gated network order to manage interaction and to control effects in a way that sounds very much like...normative smart power. Or any ideal conception of foreign policy.
Ramo’s advocacy for agile and relevant cognitive approaches to networks is not wrong, nor are his claims about the likely negative consequences for those states and organizations that fail to adapt. But the case loses strength in its effort to claim originality, like so many other books that couch evolution of an existing phenomenon as something novel. Worth a critical read.
Ramo loses me though in setting his argument about the new importance of networks in opposition to what is currently preached or practiced. His seemingly deliberate mischaracterization of “smart power,” as if to make it a foil for a networked order yet to be realized, misses an opportunity to discuss how smart power relates to systems & how it could have been used in long-term policy (I’d argue the concept has not been successfully or comprehensible embraced by any recent US administration). Ramo compounds this conceptual contrast of apples and Apples by then describing the policy employment of a gated network order to manage interaction and to control effects in a way that sounds very much like...normative smart power. Or any ideal conception of foreign policy.
Ramo’s advocacy for agile and relevant cognitive approaches to networks is not wrong, nor are his claims about the likely negative consequences for those states and organizations that fail to adapt. But the case loses strength in its effort to claim originality, like so many other books that couch evolution of an existing phenomenon as something novel. Worth a critical read.
February 18, 2017
This is a deeply thought provoking book. I am grateful we were reading it slowly with a group to discuss the ideas presented. 6 weeks of mentally digesting, contemplating, and pondering as I've read have just begun to open my mind to a new way of seeing things. New, yet, strangely familiar.
September 29, 2018
Сьоме чуття - книга, в якій автор розкриває свій погляд на суть нашої доби, називаючи її епохою мережевої влади.
Ремо згоден з Вебером, визначаючи владу німецьким поняттям Macht - здатністю досягати чого хочеш, незалежно від опіру інших. Вважає, що сьогодні вона виражається через усі види кордонів для впуску і випуску в мережевій топології, що не є пласкою.
Як приклад, він приводить Facebook в перші роки - якщо ви приєдналися до мережі і за десять днів знайшли сімох друзів, то, найімовірніше, залишились в ньому, користуючись перевагами екосистеми з пропускними брамами, та ускладнили вибір для восьмого друга, що міг учинити по-іншому.
Не можу сказати, що книжка щось сильно перевернула в мені, але думаю, що зв‘язано з тим, що користуюсь Інтернет з 90-х, та першу освіту здобув за фахом комп‘ютерних мереж, тому можу рекомендувати іншим.
Декілька фрагментів, що сподобались:
• У Першу світову генерали вважали, що війни можна було уникнути, якби не телеграф. Якби дипломатична коммунікацяя рухалася зі швидкісю кінної пошти, не створювалась би плутанина в судженнях державних діячів.
• «Людина може відкласти для себе особисто Просвітництво, але лише на певний час», - писав Кант. Ми ж можемо сказати «Людина може відкласти своє включення в мережу, але лише на певний час».
• Чим могутніше стають системи, тим дорожче перебування поза ними. Якщо у вашому колі всі користуються Інтернет, а ви ні, то опиняєтесь у вигнанні.
• Будьте страшенно обережні з тим, до чого підклбчаєтесь. Не тільки через хакерів, а і тому, що президентські кампанї можуть маніпулювати аудіторією.
#100BooksInAYear marathon from May 2018: 16 of 100 books
Ремо згоден з Вебером, визначаючи владу німецьким поняттям Macht - здатністю досягати чого хочеш, незалежно від опіру інших. Вважає, що сьогодні вона виражається через усі види кордонів для впуску і випуску в мережевій топології, що не є пласкою.
Як приклад, він приводить Facebook в перші роки - якщо ви приєдналися до мережі і за десять днів знайшли сімох друзів, то, найімовірніше, залишились в ньому, користуючись перевагами екосистеми з пропускними брамами, та ускладнили вибір для восьмого друга, що міг учинити по-іншому.
Не можу сказати, що книжка щось сильно перевернула в мені, але думаю, що зв‘язано з тим, що користуюсь Інтернет з 90-х, та першу освіту здобув за фахом комп‘ютерних мереж, тому можу рекомендувати іншим.
Декілька фрагментів, що сподобались:
• У Першу світову генерали вважали, що війни можна було уникнути, якби не телеграф. Якби дипломатична коммунікацяя рухалася зі швидкісю кінної пошти, не створювалась би плутанина в судженнях державних діячів.
• «Людина може відкласти для себе особисто Просвітництво, але лише на певний час», - писав Кант. Ми ж можемо сказати «Людина може відкласти своє включення в мережу, але лише на певний час».
• Чим могутніше стають системи, тим дорожче перебування поза ними. Якщо у вашому колі всі користуються Інтернет, а ви ні, то опиняєтесь у вигнанні.
• Будьте страшенно обережні з тим, до чого підклбчаєтесь. Не тільки через хакерів, а і тому, що президентські кампанї можуть маніпулювати аудіторією.
#100BooksInAYear marathon from May 2018: 16 of 100 books
July 27, 2016
I didn't think I'd like this book. I mean come on, I need to develop a "Seventh Sense" to have an intuitive feel for the difference between hierarchical systems and network systems? Well, OK, I liked the history lesson about how people who "didn't get it" are always being overrun by people who do, and I was getting ready to tell you, wow, this is why some old people seem so lost in our age of always on, always connected.
And then, Fuck.
Mr. Ramo jumps all the sharks at once while riding a shark that is chewing on a polar bear by using the phrase "Map-Reduce" to describe the way fast transportation and global communications has "reduced the map". Get it? Map-Reduce? Reduced maps? This is absolutely pure irony because it almost single handedly proves that he is in the group that "doesn't get it".
It's OK to describe the reduction of importance of distance, but this has nothing to do with what anyone who actually has an intuition about networks thinks when you say map-reduce.
The book tries so hard to get back on track after this howler, but never really recovered.
Recommend it to someone who thinks the world is going down the toilet because of Facebook or Pokemon Go, but doesn't need to really know what map-reduce is.
And then, Fuck.
Mr. Ramo jumps all the sharks at once while riding a shark that is chewing on a polar bear by using the phrase "Map-Reduce" to describe the way fast transportation and global communications has "reduced the map". Get it? Map-Reduce? Reduced maps? This is absolutely pure irony because it almost single handedly proves that he is in the group that "doesn't get it".
It's OK to describe the reduction of importance of distance, but this has nothing to do with what anyone who actually has an intuition about networks thinks when you say map-reduce.
The book tries so hard to get back on track after this howler, but never really recovered.
Recommend it to someone who thinks the world is going down the toilet because of Facebook or Pokemon Go, but doesn't need to really know what map-reduce is.
June 5, 2020
Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity
The depth and breadth of Big tech are apparent.
Behemoths like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Microsoft are new nation-states. Streaming and video platforms like YouTube, Netflix, and Spotify transmit ideas and artistic expression at light speed.
Humanity has morphed into a collection of borderless, digital islands. Each of these entities has protocols, user permissions, and community standards - set not by governments but by private enterprise. Ramo asks, what does this mean for the collective? Indeed, anyone who has been de-platformed, or had a user account shut down can attest that they feel powerless to do anything about it. Is this the society we want for ourselves?
We are witness to an unprecedented convergence of many forces - politics, economics, cultural, technology, legal and environmental.
Will we listen to Zuck or the POTUS? Ramo sets the stage for a rational discussion on important issues.
Will you join the conversation?
The depth and breadth of Big tech are apparent.
Behemoths like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Microsoft are new nation-states. Streaming and video platforms like YouTube, Netflix, and Spotify transmit ideas and artistic expression at light speed.
Humanity has morphed into a collection of borderless, digital islands. Each of these entities has protocols, user permissions, and community standards - set not by governments but by private enterprise. Ramo asks, what does this mean for the collective? Indeed, anyone who has been de-platformed, or had a user account shut down can attest that they feel powerless to do anything about it. Is this the society we want for ourselves?
We are witness to an unprecedented convergence of many forces - politics, economics, cultural, technology, legal and environmental.
Will we listen to Zuck or the POTUS? Ramo sets the stage for a rational discussion on important issues.
Will you join the conversation?
August 30, 2016
Vague and filled with hand-wavey promises on which it doesn't deliver, delivered in the voice of a pompous windbag. Yet I would still call it a must-read, because of the lines of thinking it stimulates. The essential thesis is that we are living in a (computer) Network Revolution that is changing the world much more, and more rapidly, than the Industrial Revolution, with equivalent dangers. This is a case in which the limitations of the linear "star" rating pinch me painfully. Five stars for relevance and readability, two stars for content. I'd love a more substantial book on the same subject.
February 9, 2017
While at times slightly pompous, self aggrandizing and paternalistic (as in he has seen the future in ways that make the rest of the world's thinkers sound antiquated and obsolete, and at times unintelligent) , Mr Cooper Ramo does bring to light some immensely thought provoking arguments related to technology advances necessitating a different way to think about public policy and about humanity.
At times , like other readers , I was tempted to stop reading the book , the lack of robustness and rigor in citing sources was particularly off putting, I do however recommend, strongly, the book. It contains some strong , interesting messages.
At times , like other readers , I was tempted to stop reading the book , the lack of robustness and rigor in citing sources was particularly off putting, I do however recommend, strongly, the book. It contains some strong , interesting messages.
May 9, 2019
Тривожна книга, бо якось не по собі, коли читаєш, про поглиблення комплексності світу, ускладнення процесів, подальше "підключення" кожного до мереж, що заполонили світ, навіть замінили його. Онтологія речі, душі чи часу тепер не така однозначна. Водночас завершальна ідея вражає - не треба боротися з "підключенням", треба будь що зберігати людяність і цінності. Тоді ти транслюватимеш мережі це і вона не зможе перестрибнути людину і відмовитися від неї.
July 17, 2016
Ramo is suggesting a major paradigm shift in the way we look at global power-not exactly light reading This remarkably informative and relevant is not exactly the kind of book that you cant put down. In fact, there were times it was hard to pick it back up, but I really learned a lot and will go back to certain sections as reference.
October 15, 2017
A sensible book to read!!
It's about network, how networks going to rule the future, studded with lot of information and every few chapter was like a book. Once you complete its almost you have read few books
Loved and little dry but his analysis are fantastic!!
Great book to be read in 2017
It's about network, how networks going to rule the future, studded with lot of information and every few chapter was like a book. Once you complete its almost you have read few books
Loved and little dry but his analysis are fantastic!!
Great book to be read in 2017
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