I could hear Zakaria’s sonorous, somber, competent voice the whole time I read this book. I don’t know if it was his intent or not, but this book somehow reassured me that things are not as bad as they seem, as if there is a path out of the minefields of the present, if only good middle of the road liberals like Zakaria stay in charge. Be sober, industrious, and reasonable, and all will be well.
The book starts with an analysis of other revolutionary eras in the modern world: the Dutch revolution, which invented capitalism, the English Glorious Revolution, which imported aspects of the Dutch for parliamentary supremacy and more capitalism, which led to the next revolution Zakaria analyzes, the Industrial Revolution. He moves on to the French Revolution, which he sees as a failure, and the American Revolution, which was a success. Echoing Eric Hobsbawm, he gives a mostly materialist explanation, so that technical and economic change brought political change. On the other hand, liberalism, an idea, was the central feature of all the revolutions, and produced and was predicated upon openness - borders, politics, trade, freedom - and brought wealth and power. Unfortunately, it was extremely disruptive of the social status quo, so that belief systems, social networks, identities, all the things that brought comfort to people’s lives besides money and power. Thus, the inevitable backlash.
Over the long-term, I think this is a good analysis. I was glad to see somebody offering classic interpretations of these pivotal moments in the history of the West. Many academic historians have gone off into post-modernist left field, concentrating upon secondary characteristics as if those were the main features, but not Zakaria. I am not so sure, however, that, over the long-run, that the French Revolution was really a failure. In the short and medium terms in France, yes. Over the history of ideas of the past two hundred years, I would rate it a brilliant, sparking success. And I would note that the economic historian Robert Allen, in “The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective”, argued that cheap coal and expensive labor were far more important in sparking the industrial revolution than liberalism. I still haven’t made my mind up about that.
In 2024, we are living in the era of backlash from the revolutions of globalization and information technology. Both of these phenomena created great wealth and advances in material human progress, but their downsides have to be reckoned with. Globalization and automation have led to a decline in American manufacturing jobs. Much of the global architecture of trade was constructed in organizations such as the World Trade Organization or the World Economic Forum that were purposefully insulated from democracy. As inequality between countries has decreased, inequality within industrialized countries has increased. The digital revolution has not changed physical reality like the industrial revolution, but it has "change[d] the mental world, expanding information, knowledge, analytic capacity, and with it our definition of what it means to be human." These are great gains but it has also resulted in shortened attention spans and feeds resentment, loneliness, conspiracy theories, anxiety, misinformation, fake news, extremism, and censorship.
This has been accompanied by what Zakaria geopolitically calls “the rise of the rest.” Although the American economy is still over one quarter of the world economy, it no longer can tell other, self-confident, rising nations exactly what to do. China has risen to become a geopolitical rival and Russia has reemerged as a regional spoiler, but also countries like India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Brazil have become more powerful in their regions. With these countries, America cannot act as a hegemon; it needs to negotiate for and concede influence, and that is very difficult for it to do, especially given the authoritarian nature of some of these regimes. After the forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Americans seem to want to withdraw from the world and all its confusion, and American behavior in Iraq and its backing of Israel also tarnish its image abroad. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the NATO alliance closer to together, but much of the rest of the world is happy to buy discounted Russian oil and gas. Many of these governments have become less democratic and liberal than was hoped in the 1990s and 2000s.
Politics has moved from a division between left and right into a division between open and closed. Brexist, Trumpism, the Far Right in Europe: all want to close borders to immigrants to stop demographic change. As well, the economic crash of 2008 showed the American and European financial systems protecting the rich at the expense of the rest. Covid 19 fueled the fire more. As the center left and right economic policies have coalesced, we now see a collapse in the faith of the liberal project, authorities and institutions on both extremes but especially in the working class. We see leftist yuppies versus conservative blue collar workers, Christian Republicans versus secular Democrats, very liberal young women and very conservative young men, and a racial animus towards the first Black president and immigration. The Trump presidency was the result, not the cause of these changes.
I think that Zakaria’s advice to keep the liberal project alive is mostly very sane. Firstly, those who believe in liberalism’s potential have to acknowledge the missteps that have taken place and when we have gone too far. Rather than top-down social change imposed by bureaucrats in search of perfect justice, we need more organic change from the bottom up so that the elites do not get out ahead of public feeling. This is a good Burkean instinct: change to preserve. We need to prioritize individual rights over membership in social categories. No more mistakes like the war in Iraq. And since 2008, we have to acknowledge that sometimes politics is more important than economics. Biden has kept most of Trump's protectionist economic policies in place and expanded others; rather than only prioritizing growth, there are also national security issues, a need to keep American manufacturing alive, and to try to pull the bottom up closer to the top.
I would add more. We have to prioritize our national democracies over non-elected international bureaucracies. We need to be open to ideas, but borders matter. The people who live in a country get to decide who else gets in. Free trade is better than mercantilism or autarky, but it also depends upon what everyone else is doing. To make an historical argument, when Britain opted for free trade in the 1840s, it was good for Britain. It provided cheap food, and her industries were strong. After Germany and the USA set up second generation industry behind tariff walls, it made sense for Britain, as a second-best option, to try for imperial preferences. Free trade needs to be seen to benefit those at the bottom as well as well as at the top.
We have to prioritize free speech but stop letting the social media companies profit from disinformation. When Alex Jones was recently fined $1 billion for his lies, I thought, why should we not be able to sue the social media companies, that is Youtube, who profited from his being on their platform? That is surely the way forward. On the other hand, it should be illegal for corporations to fire somebody because of their political views.
Zakaria is a good storyteller. I agree with his analysis that populism arises because of real problems but often has bad solutions. The scapegoats are just scapegoats. It is up to responsible politicians to find real solutions. But I also wonder if today is as revolutionary as he proposes. Think about the 1960s and the Weathermen and Black Panthers and the assassinations of John and Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King and Malcolm X. The riots and the Vietnam War and the election of Richard Nixon with the “Southern Strategy.” At the moment, populism and authoritarianism are challenging liberalism, but how leaders and ordinary people react to this will be crucial. As Hans Rosling said, I am neither an optimist nor a pessimist. But I am a possibilist.