Author is on NYT and NPR
Resilience is defined as the ability of a system to maintain its core purpose and integrity in the face of dramatically changed circumstances. It can be achieved either by improving the ability resist being pushed past thresholds and my expanding the range of situations the system can adapt to if pushed past certain thresholds. Core tools of resilience systems include feedback loops, dynamic reorganization, inbuilt counter mechanisms, decoupling, diversity, modularity, simplicity, swarming and clustering. Systems need to mitigate, adapt or transform but first you need to understand where fragilities in systems come from.
1\ resilient yet fragile systems are resilient to expected change but fragile when facing tail risk
Such systems usually have a tradeoff between being fragile and efficient vs. robust but inefficient
Paradoxically often the system to keep it in balance, or its purpose or method get hijacked and are turned into the source of fragility
Small variances get magnified by hijacking the
- beneficial aspects e.g. fin system deepening is considered a good thing but increased complexity meant risk was viewed with tunnel vision and hence magnified in aggregate
- compensatory mechanism e.g. to make sure the internet stayed up always, the distributed nature of servers meant the system would be resilient should hackers take over a few servers -- the auto distribution of pathways made it resilient but not if it was flooded with info i.e. DDoS
One solution is to have sleeper mechanism activated when a system is in trouble which requires constant monitoring and feedback
2\ Sensing, scaling swarming
Swarming example of terrorists in small clusters attack simultaneously
Scaling example is TB -- it goes dormant, it scales down in the host and insidious because it only kills some times and constantly searches for feedback in the host and strikes when the host is already impaired
Feedback is important and old structures can inhibit it e.g. power grids have old infra and IT systems and there's poor flow of info
You need better design which is
- Real time feedback
- Anticipatory
- In case of failure, breaks into modules to prevent cascade
And in case of organizations it means
- Feedback
- Better incentives
- Free flow of info
- Modular
- Distributed intelligence
3\ Clustering
Systems scale up sigmoidally i.e. bigger they get, more energy is required for each additional unit of growth
That's natural because consider animals, bigger they are, slower their heart rate
The implication is that there is a certain size a system can grow to before it becomes unsustainable, else you would have dinosaur size animals everywhere
So you either innovate or move to a new state e.g. of innovation is internet
How do you go to a new state? Clusters of diversity and density
The system needs to be adaptable and You need to expand the stakeholders for a holistic approach
The book then moves to various scales of systems viz the individual, group, society and also how leaders can amplify resilience
4\ Resilience is the character of belief systems that allow one to cognitively reappraise situations and regulate emotions
A hardy belief system is one that had following tenets:
- Belief that one can find a meaningful purpose in life
- That one can influence one's surrounding and environment and
- The belief that positive and negative experiences will lead to growth
Mindful meditation comes in here, kinds are
- Detachment and let go of emotion
- Focus receded and you're aware of senses or
- Loving kindness meditation which he focuses on, as t activates the empathy center
NB: refers to the fact that stress can affect telomere length which hampers their ability to replicate, hurting our longevity i.e. stress takes time off your life
5\ trust and cooperation
The GFC was because trust was eroded in counterparties causing markets to freeze and price discovery to fail
Oxytocin is interesting in that it increases the risk a person is willing to bear when dealing with strangers
Cooperation manifests in the prisoners dilemma where tit for tat wins
The issue that men are irrational and deviations occur
For instance, inequity aversion means you'll turn down free money if it's unequally benefiting the two parties or falling for wishful thinking being reality
One solution is to enlarge the tribe ref: Abraham Project of ME peace by focusing on the common Abrahamic thread running through all 3 intersecting religions
Have strong teams defined as a small diverse team of tight collaborators AND wherein each one has a diverse wide albeit weakly tied network
NB: in a fluid collaborative context especially knowledge based industries, what is also key is credit, and rewards
6\ cognitive diversity
RYF systems , especially societies have a tendency that with time, the mechanism to preserve it in stability erodes with time. For instance with seat belts becoming mandatory, riskiness increased i.e. the mechanism to make cars safer led to an externality and was hijacked
In companies there's a risk of homeostasis and rigid thinking . What you then need is clusters of red teams i.e. in war games both sides have their adversarial objective regardless of value judgement. So you need teams that can pick apart ideas because it's hard to critique your own work and with time herd mentality comes in.
7\ communities that bounce back
Function of their ability to sense and intervene and it cant be imposed from above, has to come from within
Also the change is a change in norms and practices (which can be achieved via positive reinforcement, social proof) and the system needs to contain the contagion before it spreads
8\ The translational leader
9\ Conclusion
The general framework toward greater resilience begins with continuous, inclusive and honest efforts to seek out fragilities, thresholds and feedback looks of a system. This requires greater mindfulness and an assessment without judgement of the world as it truly is.
Fragilities can emerge when a corporate culture migrates to an inappropriate level of risk tolerance, when governance wanes of there's a loss of cognitive diversity leading to group think
There is a mode of organization that can deal with disruption -- adhocracy ref Toffler with informal team roles, limited focus on standard operating procedures, deep improvisation, rapid cycles, selective decentralization and empowerment of specialist teams and an intolerance of bureaucracy. This mode is modular and plug and play
Adhocracies thrive on data and often employ red team mentality
Ultimately, resilience must continuously be refreshed and recommitted to, every effort at resilience buys us not certainty, but another day and another chance. Every day is Day One
What I really enjoyed about the book was the disparate examples from multiple fields which were then abstracted to form the core arguments