Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions

by Dominic D.P. Johnson

Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War , states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war.

Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions.

The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Genres: History, Psychology, Politics, Nonfiction, War

288 pages, Hardcover

First published October 29, 2004

Reviews

[Mu-tien Chiou · Rating 3 out of 5]

One-sentence takeaway: "...overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection ... because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent."

Self-confidence helps project a stronger version of oneself in an aggressive setting. Still, when this strength is not enough to offset the disparity in power, it obstructs the exercise of better judgment- that escalation is not always the only, and best, way to approach things.

[Tom]

I have one more "case" to go (Vietnam) in this book but am putting it back on my "to read" list until I'm inspired to pick it up again. Good material about overconfidence and "positive illusions" and their adverse impact on carrying on war, though presented in a bit too academical a fashion to be a page-turner. I'm too easily distracted by the next great-looking book...