The Right Decision: A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory

by James Stein

CAN YOU EVER BE SURE YOU'RE MAKINGTHE RIGHT DECISION? Should you stay in a comfy job with little chance of advancement-or take a riskier one in which you could make lots of money but also wind up on the street? Should you listen to a doctor who advises surgery-or trust another who tells you to wait and see if your condition improves? Should you remain in a cozy relationship without much spark-or cut your losses and search for your soul mate? Is there ever a right decision? Professor James Stein would argue yes, and in this provocative new book, he shows you how to apply the mathematical principles of Decision Theory to every aspect of your life. Ingeniously blending statistics, probability, game theory, economics, and even philosophy, this dynamic new approach to decision making can help you choose a new career path, buy a better home, even pick the perfect mate. With The Right Decision, you can't go wrong. INCLUDES ENTERTAINING INTERACTIVE QUIZZESTO HELP YOU MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION EVERY TIME!

Genres: Nonfiction, Psychology, Self Help, Mathematics

257 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 2009

Reviews

[Bethany · Rating 3 out of 5]

I like the way the decision theories are explained in this book. But I’m not convinced that decision making is this straight forward. The first couple questions I thought, there is not enough info here to make a choice! Then I thought how limited info is in real life and tried harder. I didn’t do perfectly on the quizzes in the second half, but I did all right. There is a lot of “explanation” that I disagree with.

Decision theory things to understand

Identify alternatives: two extremes and at least one compromise.
Minimax
Maximax
Bayes’ Criterion
Coalition
Vindictive solution

5 2 5 5 5 1 5 = 28
5 2 2 0 5 5 -1 = 18
2 5 5 5 3 5 5 = 30
3 5 5 5 0 5 5 = 28

[Dorotea · Rating 5 out of 5]

The quizzes are fun, the principles solid. Overall a nice read.

[Nura Yusof · Rating 4 out of 5]

I love this book! But solutions to some of the questions didn't sit well with me.

In "Hacking It", I felt the 2nd possible solution was the better bet compared to the 3rd because if you stayed at a well-paying job for a little while, you'd be able to have enough financially to start off as an independent contractor. Even if you had a lot of contacts, it won't matter much if you can't even stay afloat for a few months while waiting for payment from your clients.

Sometimes, I think the author is purposefully trying to make sure that the right solution never involves taking a life. While that is correct, I do wonder whether it made sense to let Napoleon live as in the "Nine Lives" quiz. I didn't think that the exile solutions were best because he was a popular guy. And I think he didn't escape from Elba without some help. That means he could have done it again, even though it may take a while for his people to get to St. Helena. Even though executing him may have made him a martyr, I don't see how the French could have been mobilized to rise in arms without another charismatic and commanding character like Napoleon at the helms.

As for "Anniversary Tea Leaves", to simply ask the wife what she wanted, clearly shows that the husband did not make full use of the information accumulated in the 5 years of marriage. That's a lot of information. In other words, he didn't pay attention. Instead of asking her point-blank, how about asking people closest to her, like her friends, her sister or mother? Asking her is a solution but it wouldn't be so blatantly insensitive if he were to casually ask her like months way in advance instead.

Aside from that, perhaps Dr. Stein shouldn't have used so much of history, particularly business history as some of his quizzes. I have a feeling that a lot of business people may pick up this book and may be too well-versed in business history to really appreciate the science of decision-making.

Also, what's missing is that in decision-making, a lot of potential solutions present themselves. How do we shortlist the right ones before whittling down to that one right decision? That, is another book I would like to read.

[Gamma · Rating 4 out of 5]

A quick tour of the theory around making good decisions.

What are you trying to accomplish? What do you value?

What are the alternative choices? Do we have too many choices? Three or less. Are they all available for us to choose?

For each of the choices, what do we expect to get out of them, that is, what is the payoff of this choice?

Can we exclude any choices as being strictly worse than the other ones?

Will we be making this sort of choice more than once? What is our expected value?

Will we be making this choice only once? Are we trying to avoid a big disaster? Minimax Are we trying to capture a big gain? Maximax.

I liked the decision making quizzes, and the brief, vivid writing. I look forward to reading his other books, and would like to emulate his style in my writing on technical subjects.

[Betsy · Rating 3 out of 5]

What I learned from this book. I am one of those people that likes to make decisions. The reader is given a chance to make actual decisions that were made in history. Some by Nixon, Kennedy, and Lincoln. You see how you would have done in these situations. This is not one of those measuring sticks that tells you there is no wrong decision. There is always a best decision. James Stein explains elements of decisions. Many times math is involved other times a decision making approach is used.

If you read Blink or tipping point you might as well add this one to the mix. James Stein does a good job without not talking over anyone's head or dragging something out. Anyone can better their decision process after reading this.

[Elizabeth]

Interesting reading, kind of like a Choose Your Own Adventure for decision making.



There are dozens of quizzes (all in the second person) to test and strengthen your skills, with both historical and hypothetical examples. I got most of them wrong.



I did notice notice that of these scenarios, only two or three of them specifically addressed a woman, and these dilemmas were about marriage. At the risk of sounding nitpicky, I found this approach both outdated and sort of irritating. Did Stein's editor not point this out to him?

[Zhang Richard · Rating 3 out of 5]

I like this book very much, it gives us a very practical tool to navigate the complex world and make the judicious choice amidst a bunch of options by drawing examples from history, business, family, politics and health. It is a must read for anyone who tends to hesitate in reaching a decision and sometimes loses the window of gaining the advantage to win over a competitor or misses the wrong person in seeking help. I love it anyway even though it may not be an easy reading and sometimes may present unusual challenge for involving some business theories.

[Michelle · Rating 4 out of 5]

Using political, business and financial markets, Stein guides readers along how famous and infamous decisions affected history. His description of different decision-making strategies was very useful in understanding how leaders decide.

I don't know how applicable the quizzes are to developing decision-theory skills (could be because I rarely guessed his "right" answer!) but this book certainly nudges you towards thinking differently about your thinking!

[Chris · Rating 2 out of 5]

Initially, this book seemed unique, a sort of "Name Your Own Adventure" for adults. But the further I got, the more I realized how poorly the examples had been thought out. I even found the ones I agreed with to be poorly rationalized.

[Stefano · Rating 3 out of 5]

interessante ma nessuna sorpresa: non dice nulla di più di quanto possa essere già capito, utilizzando semplicemente il buon senso.