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After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order
Widely reviewed and critically praised, Emmanuel Todd's After the Empire predicts that the United States is forfeiting its superpower status as it moves away from traditional democratic values of egalitarianism and universalism, lives far beyond its means economically, and continues to anger foreign allies and enemies alike with its military and ideological policies. As America's global dominance evaporates, Todd foresees the emergence of a Eurasian alliance bringing together Europe, Russia, Japan, and the Arab-Islamic world.
Todd calmly and straightforwardly takes stock of many negative trends, including America's weakened commitment to the socio-economic integration of African Americans, a bulimic economy that increasingly relies on smoke and mirrors and the goodwill of foreign investors, and a foreign policy that squanders the country's reserves of "soft power" while its militaristic arsonist-fireman behavior is met with increasing resistance. Written by a demographer and historian who foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Union, this original and daring book cannot be ignored.
Todd calmly and straightforwardly takes stock of many negative trends, including America's weakened commitment to the socio-economic integration of African Americans, a bulimic economy that increasingly relies on smoke and mirrors and the goodwill of foreign investors, and a foreign policy that squanders the country's reserves of "soft power" while its militaristic arsonist-fireman behavior is met with increasing resistance. Written by a demographer and historian who foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Union, this original and daring book cannot be ignored.
192 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2002
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1016 people want to read
About the author
Emmanuel Todd
67 books183 followersEmmanuel Todd is a French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) in Paris. His research examines the different types of families worldwide and how there are matching beliefs, ideologies and political systems, and the historical events involving these things.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 53 reviews
November 4, 2012
Interesting book. Written in 2002, it's quite accurate in some aspects, and a bit dated in others.
As a prediction it was spot-on in some cases - predicting a crisis, America's problems, and its miltary behaviour - but failed in some others:completely overlooked the rise of China. It's also somewhat optimistic about Europe's and Japan's future dominance.
I still found his methodology interesting: he bases his reasoning on statistics (demographic and economic) and anthropological structures. He reasons that the governments we go for are a reflection of our culture's family structure, which he supports with some convincing examples.
Was worth a read.
As a prediction it was spot-on in some cases - predicting a crisis, America's problems, and its miltary behaviour - but failed in some others:completely overlooked the rise of China. It's also somewhat optimistic about Europe's and Japan's future dominance.
I still found his methodology interesting: he bases his reasoning on statistics (demographic and economic) and anthropological structures. He reasons that the governments we go for are a reflection of our culture's family structure, which he supports with some convincing examples.
Was worth a read.
December 29, 2016
Emmanuel Todd makes a very prescient metaphor about some older critics of American empire whom he says are like "broken clocks." Their perception of American power has not changed with the passage of time and changing of circumstance. Despite this, like frozen timepieces, they still manage to be right twice a day. Although they are driven by a genuine sense of moral outrage, the familiarity of their arguments tends to undercut their force at times. And some other times they just get it wrong.
This book represents a very different type of criticism of the United States. Written in 2002, before the Iraq War, and before a raft of trendy critiques of the United States began arriving, Todd predicted the imperial overreach and decay that we have since come to witness. An anthropologist, he looks at demographic trends (specifically literacy rates and birth rates) and makes the point that power and development is shifting to Eurasia. While many peoples are presently going through the stage of violent "deracination" that seems to accompany mass literacy, this is a phase that will pass. Declining birthrates around the world also testify to the improving status of women. In sum, the rest of the world is catching up in its own haphazard way.
America occupies a unique place in the world. It is ostensibly a superpower, yet it does not produce anything that the world particularly needs. It doesn't produce anything at all really. The U.S. is unique in the world in running up massive trade deficits year after year, consuming the excess demand of the world's producers and in turn stimulating the economy. The U.S. is the world's Keynesian state. Or to put it as evocatively as Todd as, it is the "world's Pyramid," without which the industrial powers would have not have a place to profit on their wares. America's bottomless consumption is what it offers to the world. In this light, Bush's famous exhortation to Americans to "go shopping" is not merely a call to get on with daily life, but to continue fulfilling America's role in the imperial order. Namely, it is the unproductive metropole, living off the production of the periphery.
Despite the deficits the U.S. dollar, miraculously enough, does not drop. This is because what is lost in trade is made up for in huge capital inflows from around the world. People ship their money to the U.S. in an arrangement we would've once called "tribute," but which is now done voluntarily and in a liberal manner by the rich and powerful from the rest of the globe. The mechanism for this is American financial markets, which are perceived to be secure and thus offer a place for those with means to store their financial assets; usually in safe investments such as conservative stocks, bonds and treasury bills. In this way America's consumption is paid for by the people of the world. In a stunning statistic cited here, it takes over $1Bn of inflow per day to keep America's trade deficit sustainable. And that was in 2002.
There are other very fascinating observations here that draw on Todd's anthropological background. The difference in cultures and political forms is a result of the different family structures of peasant groups, Todd contends. For example German peasants had hierarchal families that chose a single male heir to exclusion of others; a form that eventually allowed Nazism by normalizing a hierarchy among peoples. Communitarian family structures in Russia and China led another way, whereas the alleged favoritism among brothers in Arab families, to the exclusion of fathers, led to a congenital lack of respect for state authority. A non-anthropologist has little means by which to evaluate these claims but nonetheless many of them gave food for thought. The demographic trends of intermarriage among whites and Asians (growing) and among Whites and Blacks and Latinos (nonexistent or stagnant) as a marker of racial integration was also enlightening.
Given when this book was written, its kind of amazing how much Todd got right. Its almost as though later American leaders went out of their way to bring his dire predictions to fruition. He points out America's apparent need to keep low-level conflicts going on around the world, but only in places where the enemy is weak a spectacle can be made out of defeating them. The American military (its ground forces at least) are weak; slow and unwilling to take casualties. As such they only attack weak nations like Iraq and Vietnam, and even then they are unable to achieve their goals. The purpose of this constant belligerence is to show that America still has some kind of unique place or mission in the world; a violent spectacle that technically is meant to showcase its continued exceptionalism. However the repeated failures of such attempts, as well as the massive devastation they have wrought particularly in the Middle East, has deeply harmed the United States and its allies. Europe has a need to have tranquility in the Middle East, it can't afford to keep low-level conflicts like Israel/Palestine festering the way America has.
Todd doesn't get everything right. He predicts a move away from the U.S. on the part of Europe and a consolidation. Until recently that seemed perhaps possible, but Europe itself is now buckling under its own pressures. Russia is arising as less of an ally and more of a threat. And Todd fails to predict the rise of China, at least not in the correct timeframe. Nonetheless, this is really an exceptional work of political forecasting. Its an education, and it is not like the tired and predictable anti-American books out there. This is a work of genuine scholarship that belongs among the likes of Fukuyama and Brzezinski.
After finishing, I spent some time looking at the U.S. Balance of Trade in the years since the book's publication. With the exception of a latent growth in U.S. service sector exports, a murky and less "solid" industry in many ways, the trends he cites here have only continued to grow. How much longer this uniquely unstable economic arrangement can keep going becomes a bigger question with every passing year. Income inequality caused by sacrificing industrial production in favor of finance capital inflows is in turn creating a population of angry and unemployed living underneath a globalized, cosmopolitan elite, a group which Todd notes benefits from "educational stratification" as its own form of class difference.
The domestic instability now wracking the Western world order as a result of this arrangement suggests that real change is necessary now, before the breaking point is reached.
This book represents a very different type of criticism of the United States. Written in 2002, before the Iraq War, and before a raft of trendy critiques of the United States began arriving, Todd predicted the imperial overreach and decay that we have since come to witness. An anthropologist, he looks at demographic trends (specifically literacy rates and birth rates) and makes the point that power and development is shifting to Eurasia. While many peoples are presently going through the stage of violent "deracination" that seems to accompany mass literacy, this is a phase that will pass. Declining birthrates around the world also testify to the improving status of women. In sum, the rest of the world is catching up in its own haphazard way.
America occupies a unique place in the world. It is ostensibly a superpower, yet it does not produce anything that the world particularly needs. It doesn't produce anything at all really. The U.S. is unique in the world in running up massive trade deficits year after year, consuming the excess demand of the world's producers and in turn stimulating the economy. The U.S. is the world's Keynesian state. Or to put it as evocatively as Todd as, it is the "world's Pyramid," without which the industrial powers would have not have a place to profit on their wares. America's bottomless consumption is what it offers to the world. In this light, Bush's famous exhortation to Americans to "go shopping" is not merely a call to get on with daily life, but to continue fulfilling America's role in the imperial order. Namely, it is the unproductive metropole, living off the production of the periphery.
Despite the deficits the U.S. dollar, miraculously enough, does not drop. This is because what is lost in trade is made up for in huge capital inflows from around the world. People ship their money to the U.S. in an arrangement we would've once called "tribute," but which is now done voluntarily and in a liberal manner by the rich and powerful from the rest of the globe. The mechanism for this is American financial markets, which are perceived to be secure and thus offer a place for those with means to store their financial assets; usually in safe investments such as conservative stocks, bonds and treasury bills. In this way America's consumption is paid for by the people of the world. In a stunning statistic cited here, it takes over $1Bn of inflow per day to keep America's trade deficit sustainable. And that was in 2002.
There are other very fascinating observations here that draw on Todd's anthropological background. The difference in cultures and political forms is a result of the different family structures of peasant groups, Todd contends. For example German peasants had hierarchal families that chose a single male heir to exclusion of others; a form that eventually allowed Nazism by normalizing a hierarchy among peoples. Communitarian family structures in Russia and China led another way, whereas the alleged favoritism among brothers in Arab families, to the exclusion of fathers, led to a congenital lack of respect for state authority. A non-anthropologist has little means by which to evaluate these claims but nonetheless many of them gave food for thought. The demographic trends of intermarriage among whites and Asians (growing) and among Whites and Blacks and Latinos (nonexistent or stagnant) as a marker of racial integration was also enlightening.
Given when this book was written, its kind of amazing how much Todd got right. Its almost as though later American leaders went out of their way to bring his dire predictions to fruition. He points out America's apparent need to keep low-level conflicts going on around the world, but only in places where the enemy is weak a spectacle can be made out of defeating them. The American military (its ground forces at least) are weak; slow and unwilling to take casualties. As such they only attack weak nations like Iraq and Vietnam, and even then they are unable to achieve their goals. The purpose of this constant belligerence is to show that America still has some kind of unique place or mission in the world; a violent spectacle that technically is meant to showcase its continued exceptionalism. However the repeated failures of such attempts, as well as the massive devastation they have wrought particularly in the Middle East, has deeply harmed the United States and its allies. Europe has a need to have tranquility in the Middle East, it can't afford to keep low-level conflicts like Israel/Palestine festering the way America has.
Todd doesn't get everything right. He predicts a move away from the U.S. on the part of Europe and a consolidation. Until recently that seemed perhaps possible, but Europe itself is now buckling under its own pressures. Russia is arising as less of an ally and more of a threat. And Todd fails to predict the rise of China, at least not in the correct timeframe. Nonetheless, this is really an exceptional work of political forecasting. Its an education, and it is not like the tired and predictable anti-American books out there. This is a work of genuine scholarship that belongs among the likes of Fukuyama and Brzezinski.
After finishing, I spent some time looking at the U.S. Balance of Trade in the years since the book's publication. With the exception of a latent growth in U.S. service sector exports, a murky and less "solid" industry in many ways, the trends he cites here have only continued to grow. How much longer this uniquely unstable economic arrangement can keep going becomes a bigger question with every passing year. Income inequality caused by sacrificing industrial production in favor of finance capital inflows is in turn creating a population of angry and unemployed living underneath a globalized, cosmopolitan elite, a group which Todd notes benefits from "educational stratification" as its own form of class difference.
The domestic instability now wracking the Western world order as a result of this arrangement suggests that real change is necessary now, before the breaking point is reached.
January 8, 2026
en este libro algunas de las afirmaciones del autor siguen siendo de actualidad, como el déficit comercial de EEUU , la hegemonia del dolar que traslada la deuda americana a los demás países, la deuda pública descontrolada en EEUU y sus problemas de desigualdad, violencia y polarización de la población , la ineficacia del uso del poder militar para seguir manteniendo la hegemonia y el intento de aislamiento de Rusia para el control de Eurasia.
Sin embargo hay otras que no se han cumplido, como por ejemplo la afirmación de que un mundo en vías de desarrollo camina hacia la democracia o que Europa y Japón dejarán de ser colonias de EEUU para convertirse en sus competidores . También se echa en falta en el libro más alusiones a China e India como potencias economicas reales
Sin embargo hay otras que no se han cumplido, como por ejemplo la afirmación de que un mundo en vías de desarrollo camina hacia la democracia o que Europa y Japón dejarán de ser colonias de EEUU para convertirse en sus competidores . También se echa en falta en el libro más alusiones a China e India como potencias economicas reales
December 10, 2008
For every salient point Todd makes, he makes another outrageous one that comes off as based purely on anti-American sentiment. When he does this, he actually undermines the impact of the book.
For example, his claims that the American army is weak because it has never performed well in ground combat seem way off base. I'm no expert, but it seems to me that the days of ground based conventional warfare are over. Why then, would the American military risk the lives of its soldiers? It seems to me that Todd has missed the boat, and is stuck in the paradigm of the first and second world wars. I believe this argument serves to undermine his overall point regarding the military, which is simply that the American military cannot adequately control the world and its resources because it is spread too thin, a very valid argument. By making the unprovable claim that the American military would not perform well in a ground campaign, his Anti-American sentiment comes through and weakens his main argument.
I did find his analysis of demographic patterns and their impacts on the economy to be very interesting. Reading this in 2008, his predictions regarding American consumerism and abuse of credit have an eery accuracy, which lend some credibility to his overall premise in hindsight. I do, however, look at a lot of his predictions of the geopolitical landscape skeptically. While it is undeniable that Russia, with its immense resources, is resurgent, his prediction of a Euro-Russo-Sino alliance seems more like wishful thinking than an inevitablity. In his blatant Anti-Americanism, I think he goes a bit too far to glorify the French, Germans, and especially Russians. I'd be the first to admit that there has been some irresponsible American behavior when it comes to foreign policy, but the US is not the only nation acting selfishly and trying to secure resources. That has become evident after the recent Russian aggression in Georgia.
To summarize, I do think Todd makes a lot of fair and accurate criticisms of America, but he goes too far on many occasions, at the expense of his own credibility.
For example, his claims that the American army is weak because it has never performed well in ground combat seem way off base. I'm no expert, but it seems to me that the days of ground based conventional warfare are over. Why then, would the American military risk the lives of its soldiers? It seems to me that Todd has missed the boat, and is stuck in the paradigm of the first and second world wars. I believe this argument serves to undermine his overall point regarding the military, which is simply that the American military cannot adequately control the world and its resources because it is spread too thin, a very valid argument. By making the unprovable claim that the American military would not perform well in a ground campaign, his Anti-American sentiment comes through and weakens his main argument.
I did find his analysis of demographic patterns and their impacts on the economy to be very interesting. Reading this in 2008, his predictions regarding American consumerism and abuse of credit have an eery accuracy, which lend some credibility to his overall premise in hindsight. I do, however, look at a lot of his predictions of the geopolitical landscape skeptically. While it is undeniable that Russia, with its immense resources, is resurgent, his prediction of a Euro-Russo-Sino alliance seems more like wishful thinking than an inevitablity. In his blatant Anti-Americanism, I think he goes a bit too far to glorify the French, Germans, and especially Russians. I'd be the first to admit that there has been some irresponsible American behavior when it comes to foreign policy, but the US is not the only nation acting selfishly and trying to secure resources. That has become evident after the recent Russian aggression in Georgia.
To summarize, I do think Todd makes a lot of fair and accurate criticisms of America, but he goes too far on many occasions, at the expense of his own credibility.
March 11, 2024
يركز تود على الأسباب الرئيسية التي أدت إلى سقوط الغرب، ومنها:
نهاية الدولة القومية في الغرب.
تراجع التصنيع، مما يفسر عجز حلف شمال الأطلسي عن إنتاج الأسلحة الضرورية لأوكرانيا.
وصول المصفوفة الدينية الغربية -أي البروتستانتية- إلى "درجة الصفر" والإفلاس، والزيادة الحادة في معدلات الوفيات في الولايات المتحدة أعلى بكثير مما هي عليه في روسيا.
تفاقم أعداد حالات الانتحار وجرائم القتل، وسيادة العدمية الإمبراطورية التي يعبر عنها هوس مزمن بالحروب الأبدية.
نهاية الدولة القومية في الغرب.
تراجع التصنيع، مما يفسر عجز حلف شمال الأطلسي عن إنتاج الأسلحة الضرورية لأوكرانيا.
وصول المصفوفة الدينية الغربية -أي البروتستانتية- إلى "درجة الصفر" والإفلاس، والزيادة الحادة في معدلات الوفيات في الولايات المتحدة أعلى بكثير مما هي عليه في روسيا.
تفاقم أعداد حالات الانتحار وجرائم القتل، وسيادة العدمية الإمبراطورية التي يعبر عنها هوس مزمن بالحروب الأبدية.
February 8, 2025
Plus je lis ou j'écoute Emmanuel Todd, plus j'ai de respect pour lui. Écrit en 2002 avec une postface mise à jour en 2004, Après l'Empire est aussi pertinent aujourd'hui que le jour où il a été publié pour la première fois.
Nous vivons dans un monde qui semble devenir plus confus chaque jour. Les événements survenus aux États-Unis y sont pour beaucoup. Todd dissipe le brouillard et, dans une large mesure, la propagande, pour nous aider à comprendre la manière dont Washington gère la plupart des crises dans lesquelles nous nous trouvons. Les États-Unis, puissance en déclin, doivent consommer pour maintenir leur position. Une base industrielle en déclin rapide est en partie responsable de leur stratégie de guerre sans fin, une guerre, pour la plupart, contre des puissances faibles et insignifiantes qui n'ont pratiquement aucune chance d'en sortir vainqueurs. Ces puissances faibles sont généralement issues du monde musulman, et il y a une méthode à cette folie - elles détiennent également une grande partie des réserves pétrolières mondiales, réserves dont les États-Unis ont besoin pour maintenir le style de vie démesuré et croissant de leur classe aisée.
Le maintien de leurs États satellites, notamment l'Europe en général, l'Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni en particulier, ainsi que le Japon, fait partie de la stratégie américaine visant à garantir que la Russie ne devienne pas un partenaire stratégique de ses voisins en Eurasie. Les événements récents en Eurasie ne font que renforcer le point de vue de Todd sur la géopolitique.
Comme c'est toujours le cas dans les écrits de Todd, le rôle de la démographie est important. Les faibles taux de natalité en Europe et en Russie font partie de l'argumentation de Todd en faveur d'une plus grande unité au sein de l'Eurasie comme stratégie de lutte contre les tactiques américaines de division et de domination.
Si vous décidez de lire ce livre, je vous suggère de le compléter par une interview récente que Todd a accordée au Figaro : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTz0g...
Nous vivons dans un monde qui semble devenir plus confus chaque jour. Les événements survenus aux États-Unis y sont pour beaucoup. Todd dissipe le brouillard et, dans une large mesure, la propagande, pour nous aider à comprendre la manière dont Washington gère la plupart des crises dans lesquelles nous nous trouvons. Les États-Unis, puissance en déclin, doivent consommer pour maintenir leur position. Une base industrielle en déclin rapide est en partie responsable de leur stratégie de guerre sans fin, une guerre, pour la plupart, contre des puissances faibles et insignifiantes qui n'ont pratiquement aucune chance d'en sortir vainqueurs. Ces puissances faibles sont généralement issues du monde musulman, et il y a une méthode à cette folie - elles détiennent également une grande partie des réserves pétrolières mondiales, réserves dont les États-Unis ont besoin pour maintenir le style de vie démesuré et croissant de leur classe aisée.
Le maintien de leurs États satellites, notamment l'Europe en général, l'Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni en particulier, ainsi que le Japon, fait partie de la stratégie américaine visant à garantir que la Russie ne devienne pas un partenaire stratégique de ses voisins en Eurasie. Les événements récents en Eurasie ne font que renforcer le point de vue de Todd sur la géopolitique.
Comme c'est toujours le cas dans les écrits de Todd, le rôle de la démographie est important. Les faibles taux de natalité en Europe et en Russie font partie de l'argumentation de Todd en faveur d'une plus grande unité au sein de l'Eurasie comme stratégie de lutte contre les tactiques américaines de division et de domination.
Si vous décidez de lire ce livre, je vous suggère de le compléter par une interview récente que Todd a accordée au Figaro : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTz0g...
April 7, 2008
L’historien et démographe Emmanuel Todd a publié à l’automne 2002, un essai qui avançait des idées originales, une vision lucide de la crise qui se dessinait entre le monde et les États-Unis. S’appuyant sur les données démographiques, économiques, Emmanuel Todd construit un portrait du déclin de l’Amérique cohérent et logique.
Republié en 2004 en format de poche dans la collection Folio, cet essai est écrit dans un style abordable et cohérent. Intéressant et instructif. A lire en tandem avec Le choc des civilisations de Samuel Huntington.
Republié en 2004 en format de poche dans la collection Folio, cet essai est écrit dans un style abordable et cohérent. Intéressant et instructif. A lire en tandem avec Le choc des civilisations de Samuel Huntington.
September 22, 2010
كتاب جيد يصف الجنون الأمريكي بعد احداث 11 سبتمبر! ويقف على السلوك الأمريكي في تعاطيه مع قضايا الشرق الأوسط وتحديدا قضية فلسطين؛ كما يرسم نظرة وتساؤل الاوروبيون واليابانيون - حسب رأي الكاتب - لماذا ترفض الولايات المتحدة حل النزاع الفلسطيني - الاسرائيلي وهي قادرة على ذلك وهم يتساءلون بشك كبير الى اي حد قد تنظر واشنطن بعين الرضا لاستمرار بؤرة التوتر هذه في منطقة الشرق الادنى؛ والكثير الكثير مما يحويه هذا الكتاب المترجم من قبل محمد زكريا إسماعيل.
December 22, 2016
Written in a political philosophy vein, I feel the book is a tad outdated (written just after 911). However it is interesting and worth a read if you at all interested in demography or anthropology. I personally felt at this point he underestimated the strategic importance of Russia and also the fortitude of the US. I would be interested to see an updated conclusion by this author.
November 8, 2020
الاختلالات ونقاط الضعف الأمريكية في طريق محاولتها التحول لامبراطورية مع ما يصاحب ذلك من تكاليف اقتصادية وعسكرية يرى الكاتب ان الولايات المتحدة لا قدرة لها عليها مما سيؤدي في المستقبل المتوسط الى افول نجمها وانكفائها كدولة قومية متساوية مع باقي الدول الكبرى
October 15, 2014
كيف تحارب أمريكا الإرهاب دون محاربة نفسها؟
معلومات ضخمة وعديدة يقدمها الكتاب الذي يوضح تناقض المواقف الأمريكية في سياستها الخارجية.
معلومات ضخمة وعديدة يقدمها الكتاب الذي يوضح تناقض المواقف الأمريكية في سياستها الخارجية.
October 15, 2020
a little outdated but unfortunately still pertinent
June 5, 2024
بدأ انحدار الهيمنة الأمريكية. الكتاب ده. اكتر كتاب مرعب للغرب
اللهم بجلالك وقدرك. نسألك الثبات لكل. المسلمين
نرجع للأخ تود
حينما ينتقد تود التدخل الأميركي في أوكرانيا فإنه لا يقتصر على الرصد التاريخي لمحاولات توسيع الناتو
وأيديولوجية نشر الديمقراطية التي تبناها المحافظون الجدد، وشيطنة روسيا على المستوى الرسمي. ولا يكتفي بعرض قدرة روسيا على تحدي العقوبات التي سعت بها الولايات المتحدة إلى تدمير الاقتصاد الروسي، وإبراز افتقار واشنطن إلى النفوذ اللازم لإبقاء لاعبي العالم الاقتصاديين الجدد الضخام ملتزمين بصف العقوبات، ولا حتى إن قاعدة التصنيع في الولايات المتحدة والدول الأوروبية الحليفة أثبتت أنها غير كافية لإمداد أوكرانيا بالمواد (العسكرية خاصة) اللازمة للثبات في الحرب ناهيكم عن الفوز فيها، لكن تشكك تود أعمق من ذلك بحسب كريستوفر كالدويل "نيويورك تايمز-9 مارس 2024".
يبرز تود انخفاض اقتصاد الولايات المتحدة في الاقتصاد العالمي: فالولايات المتحدة تنتج من السيارات ومن القمح أقل مما كانت تنتج في الثمانينيات، لكنه يبرز أيضاً ما يتعلق بتحولات ثقافية أبعد مدى وأشد عمقاً، يسميها كريستوفر كالدويل بـ"الانحطاط" قائلاً إنه "في مجتمع متقدم رفيع التعليم كمجتمعنا، يطمح كثير للغاية من الناس بحسب ما يرى تود إلى عمل يتعلق بالإدارة والرئاسة. يريدون أن يكونوا ساسة وفنانين ومديرين. وهذا لا يوجب دائماً تعلم أمور على قدر كبير من التعقيد. وعلى المدى البعيد، أحدث تقدم التعليم انحداراً تعليمياً كما كتب تود، وذلك لأنه أفضى إلى اختفاء القيم التي تدعم التعليم".
يقدر تود أن الولايات المتحدة تنتج مهندسين أقل من روسيا، لا قياساً إلى عدد السكان بل وفقاً للأرقام المطلقة. وهي تعاني "استنزاف عقول داخلياً" إذ ينجرف شبابها من الوظائف عالية المهارات ذات القيمة المضافة باتجاه وظائف القانون والتمويل ومختلف الوظائف التي تنقل القيمة وبحسب داخل الاقتصاد بل وقد تدمرها في بعض الأحيان.
ويرى تود أن قرار الغرب بأن يوكل قاعدته الصناعية إلى غيره ليس محض سياسة رديئة، لكنه دليل على وجود مشروع لاستغلال بقية العالم، لكن تحقيق الأرباح ليس الأمر الوحيد الذي تفعله أميركا في العالم، فهي أيضاً تنشر قيما ليبرالية كثيراً ما توصف بأنها حقوق مطلقة للإنسان. وينبه تود، وهو عالم في أنثروبولوجيا العائلات، إلى أن "كثيراً من القيم التي ينشرها الأميركيون في العالم أقل إطلاقية وعمومية مما يتصور الأميركيون".
فهياكل الأسر الأنجلو أميركية على سبيل المثال أقل نزوعاً إلى البطريركية منها في أي مكان آخر في العالم، كما أن الولايات المتحدة تبنت في طور تحديثها نموذجاً للجنس والجندر لا يتوافق جيداً مع الثقافات التقليدية (كالهندية مثلاً) والبنى الحديثة الأميل إلى البطريركية (كما في روسيا مثلاً). ورغم أن تود لا ينطلق من أرضية أخلاقية، لكنه يصر أن الثقافات التقليدية لديها تخوف كبير من نزعات الغرب التقدمية وقد تقاوم التحالف في السياسة الخارجية مع من يتبنونها، مثلما تسبب تبني الاتحاد السوفياتي رسمياً للإلحاد في إفساد علاقاته بشعوب كثيرة كان يمكن لولا ذلك أن تكون على أتم الاستعداد لتقبل الشيوعية خلال حقبة الحرب الباردة.
October 15, 2019
Emmanuel Todd is a great writer and this book is another example of his work. As usual, his work makes uncomfortable reading for all of us, refusing to allow one side or another to pat themselves on the back.
It uses data - demographic, anthropological, as well as financial - to set out the basis for the arguments he makes. It is objective to a high degree. Whilst these numbers have now passed, most of his predications are true. If you read more recent editions, there is an afterword that reflects back on what he feels are limitations of his original work, a sign of humility and acceptance of imperfection. It is also a fantastic explainer in the machinations of various political ideologies, so without any argument, it is a great educational piece.
The negative reviews expressed below suggest readers that are either uncomfortable with acceptance of the current state of affairs, or too saturated by 'call out' culture to be able to absorb and consume information and argument at an objective level. Taking phrases out of context and throwing in a label of racism in order to try and add validity to ones own poorly expressed argument is direct from the Trump school of misinformation. The section on indigenous people highlighted in a review below is such a lumbering interpretation, it make you wonder if it's paid propaganda. To position demographic and data as old media tropes is just lazy, particularly when Mr Todd highlights these tropes and dissolves them through data led reasoning.
But this book questions everyone, the left, the centre and the right, none of whom are of course responsible for anything (it's always someone else fault!), so its no wonder to see the usual headline level analysis in reviews. Perhaps it would be better to go back to Twitter and shout at people for not agreeing with you.
This book is written with a sense of hope, that through honest conversation and analysis, America can reset it's course to look after it's own people and be the positive presence in the world it once was.
It uses data - demographic, anthropological, as well as financial - to set out the basis for the arguments he makes. It is objective to a high degree. Whilst these numbers have now passed, most of his predications are true. If you read more recent editions, there is an afterword that reflects back on what he feels are limitations of his original work, a sign of humility and acceptance of imperfection. It is also a fantastic explainer in the machinations of various political ideologies, so without any argument, it is a great educational piece.
The negative reviews expressed below suggest readers that are either uncomfortable with acceptance of the current state of affairs, or too saturated by 'call out' culture to be able to absorb and consume information and argument at an objective level. Taking phrases out of context and throwing in a label of racism in order to try and add validity to ones own poorly expressed argument is direct from the Trump school of misinformation. The section on indigenous people highlighted in a review below is such a lumbering interpretation, it make you wonder if it's paid propaganda. To position demographic and data as old media tropes is just lazy, particularly when Mr Todd highlights these tropes and dissolves them through data led reasoning.
But this book questions everyone, the left, the centre and the right, none of whom are of course responsible for anything (it's always someone else fault!), so its no wonder to see the usual headline level analysis in reviews. Perhaps it would be better to go back to Twitter and shout at people for not agreeing with you.
This book is written with a sense of hope, that through honest conversation and analysis, America can reset it's course to look after it's own people and be the positive presence in the world it once was.
December 3, 2025
Leer este ensayo geopolítico un cuarto de siglo después de haberse escrito (2021) le ayuda a uno a distinguir un analista e intelectual serio y profesional, como Emmanuel Todd, de la gran cantidad de propagandistas mediáticos que se venden como expertos en redes sociales.
El autor describe la crisis del imperio gringo y pinta el panorama que él veía venir como consecuencia de los hechos en aquella época: el déficit financiero, la caída en la productividad, la decadencia social y la creciente independencia de una comunidad internacional que ya no requiere de los EEUU, más que como voraz comprador de productos terminados.
"Una sola amenaza de desequilibrio global pesa hoy sobre el planeta: los mismos Estados Unidos, que de protectores de la libertad y la justicia, han pasado a convertirse en depredadores."
Desde luego, también es muy interesante leer en esta obra, la maquiavélica jugada que orquestaron los EEUU en Ucrania para provocar lo que ha sucedido con Rusia.
Emmanuel Todd no preve la llegada de Donald Trump y la instauración de un nuevo régimen neofascista en el país norteamericano. Pero toda la lectura tiene una consecuencia totalmente razonable en la realidad presente de ese país. El imperio gringo está por caer y muy probablemente nos tocará verlo en la próxima década.
Estupenda lectura para quien quiera entender la realidad geopolítica del mundo actual.
El autor describe la crisis del imperio gringo y pinta el panorama que él veía venir como consecuencia de los hechos en aquella época: el déficit financiero, la caída en la productividad, la decadencia social y la creciente independencia de una comunidad internacional que ya no requiere de los EEUU, más que como voraz comprador de productos terminados.
"Una sola amenaza de desequilibrio global pesa hoy sobre el planeta: los mismos Estados Unidos, que de protectores de la libertad y la justicia, han pasado a convertirse en depredadores."
Desde luego, también es muy interesante leer en esta obra, la maquiavélica jugada que orquestaron los EEUU en Ucrania para provocar lo que ha sucedido con Rusia.
Emmanuel Todd no preve la llegada de Donald Trump y la instauración de un nuevo régimen neofascista en el país norteamericano. Pero toda la lectura tiene una consecuencia totalmente razonable en la realidad presente de ese país. El imperio gringo está por caer y muy probablemente nos tocará verlo en la próxima década.
Estupenda lectura para quien quiera entender la realidad geopolítica del mundo actual.
September 23, 2018
Rehashing 1990 -- 2000 media "truths" and than reinforcing them.With a strong overall tone of racism and white power.
P. 80. The native Americans are underequipped as any mainstream Hollywood movie could testify. And they are illiterate probably because they do qualify as savages. The Europeans are modern. And obviously through contrast litterate.
Todd seems to be mostly educated through something that will synthetise shortly as history is an Italian Spaghetti Western in which half naked blackface Yugoslav riders will fight a band of whites, most of whom are virtuous. He has no idea that the Europeans were able to buy out their place in the army or pay a poor guy to take their place.
Down on the same pages, Todd is categorical on the issue of WWII :
> These bombings [of German towns] had no appreciable strategic effect [...]
And Todd's Economic understanding is somewhat lower than his History.
P. 80. The native Americans are underequipped as any mainstream Hollywood movie could testify. And they are illiterate probably because they do qualify as savages. The Europeans are modern. And obviously through contrast litterate.
Todd seems to be mostly educated through something that will synthetise shortly as history is an Italian Spaghetti Western in which half naked blackface Yugoslav riders will fight a band of whites, most of whom are virtuous. He has no idea that the Europeans were able to buy out their place in the army or pay a poor guy to take their place.
Down on the same pages, Todd is categorical on the issue of WWII :
> These bombings [of German towns] had no appreciable strategic effect [...]
And Todd's Economic understanding is somewhat lower than his History.
January 13, 2023
Небезынтересное эссе, в котором автор полемизирует с Фукуямой, Хантингтоном и Бзежинским. Тодд совершенно не симпатизирует России, да и к Германии у него достаточно снисходительное отношение, но, насколько я понимаю, его можно отнести к французским интеллектуалам и поэтому мнение его весомо. Я плохо разбираюсь в международной политике, но было интересно, а некоторые подходы в анализе статистики хоть и не бесспорны, но заслуживают внимания. Исторические факты, приводимые в качестве доводов, смущают неточностью и лично во мне рождают недоверие по отношению к тем из них, насчет которых я не в курсе. В общем, это эссе проевропейски настроенного француза о стратегическом положении в мире с некоторыми прогнозами, которые ретроспективно оказались недалеко от истины.
May 23, 2023
This book was written more than 20 years ago, most of what the author described then has not only been confirmed by facts, but the pace of transformation (public debt, trade deficit, military efficiency, raise of Chinese economy) was even faster than he expected. However, the author was not fairly treating his subject (i.e. the issue of discrimination) he contended that France saw all individuals as equal, his approach to geopolitics is unique: he examines demographic statistics as well as social norms to understand whether a country is growing or contracting. His focus on infant mortality rates as an indicator of livings standards makes much sense and cuts through a lot of other confusing statistics.
February 20, 2024
Although dated, it is quite relevant today. Predicting the 2008 financial crisis, Russian-Ukraine war, the rising importance of Germany, Russia's universalism perspective, and of course Palestine- Israel and his assertion that moving toward modernity is often violent. The demographic aspects of it was so simply written yet crucial to his theories, and quite interesting to analyze. I primarily took from it the aspects of American empire, a topic I'm exploring deeply at the moment. In short, I learned way too much in this book and excited to read his latest once it is translated to EN. Todd is a true intellectual that we are lucky to have, he thinks uniquely and speaks honestly. Refreshing.
January 9, 2025
De um livro com 22 anos de existência, não se esperava tantos acertos... O autor compara os EUA ao imperio romano, que se torna recetor, desta feita, não de tributos, mas de capital, sobre a forma de capital financeiro. Os EUA cada vez mais dependentes do exterior e sem capacidade militar para impor o seu poder. Uma análise da forma como a globalização aumentou a desigualdade no mundo e de como, as democracias ocidentais permitem o controlo dos 20% mais ricos de 60% do meio,impedindo aos 20% mais pobres o alcance fas suas aspirações. E temos assim o crescimento da abstenção e o fermento do crescimento da estrema-direita.
O autor falha na análise ao papel da Rússia que segundo ele, se aproximaria da UE e seria um parceiro da paz...
Liga ainda os conflitos dos EUA com os árabes, como encenação de força para o mundo.
Sempre assente na análise demográfica e nos termos de Universalismo e Igualdade. A ler...
O autor falha na análise ao papel da Rússia que segundo ele, se aproximaria da UE e seria um parceiro da paz...
Liga ainda os conflitos dos EUA com os árabes, como encenação de força para o mundo.
Sempre assente na análise demográfica e nos termos de Universalismo e Igualdade. A ler...
January 25, 2023
Well, the view presentes about russian influence goals did not stand up to the events presented in this day. Also China factor was not adequately presented, hindsight when read 20 some years after publication, but assuming that as a choice made by author.
Minor nuicance in my edition was minor errors in data tables, where in few cases copy paste errors had occured. Also data from 20 years past had to be looked up again to see the trend now but that i was prepared for anyway.
Big thank you for the data nontheless to support the views!
Minor nuicance in my edition was minor errors in data tables, where in few cases copy paste errors had occured. Also data from 20 years past had to be looked up again to see the trend now but that i was prepared for anyway.
Big thank you for the data nontheless to support the views!
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
August 14, 2020
Lecture globalement forte intéressante à la lueur des évènements géopolitiques des 20 dernières années: L'analyse de l'auteur tombe juste sur de nombreux points en rétrospective, notamment sur le besoin des Etats Unis à attiser un climat de tension et de guerre permanente dans le monde afin de justifier sa présence dans la zone Eurasie, zone géographique clé du point de vue des futurs et actuels dévelopement économiques. Todd est aussi très juste dans son analyse de la politique extérieure Russe. Un oubli béant cependant concerne le cas de la Chine, grande absente de son analyse, pour une raison qui m'échappe?
Un passage m'a cependant beaucoup fait rire, surtout suite à la lecture de "Luttes des Classes en France", où Todd (en 2020) dézingue joyeusement Maastricht et considère l'Euro comme responsable de tout les maux et notamment de la désindustrialisation de la France: "La France, de son côté, depuis qu'elle n'est plus paralysée par la politique du franc fort, depuis qu'elle a été libérée économiquement par l'euro faible, a retrouvé, grâce à sa situation démographique plus favorable, une certaine forme de dynamisme et de confiance en elle"... C'est ce qu'on appelle un grand changement d'opinion depuis 2002, année de parution de cet ouvrage !
Un passage m'a cependant beaucoup fait rire, surtout suite à la lecture de "Luttes des Classes en France", où Todd (en 2020) dézingue joyeusement Maastricht et considère l'Euro comme responsable de tout les maux et notamment de la désindustrialisation de la France: "La France, de son côté, depuis qu'elle n'est plus paralysée par la politique du franc fort, depuis qu'elle a été libérée économiquement par l'euro faible, a retrouvé, grâce à sa situation démographique plus favorable, une certaine forme de dynamisme et de confiance en elle"... C'est ce qu'on appelle un grand changement d'opinion depuis 2002, année de parution de cet ouvrage !
November 25, 2022
Comme toujours avec Todd, une mise en perspective intéressante des aspects culturels et démographiques même si l'on regrettera que ses analyses géopolitiques (Russie, Chine, Ukraine...) ont relativement mal vieilli.
September 17, 2025
Well Monsieur Todd, and how is your prediction - of a Eurasian alliance between Europe, Russia etc - standing the test of time?
Russia 'becoming a sane partner... Ready to multiply its ties with Europe'? Really?
'Europe... Seems destined to eventually absorb Turkey'. Who'd think that now?
Russia 'becoming a sane partner... Ready to multiply its ties with Europe'? Really?
'Europe... Seems destined to eventually absorb Turkey'. Who'd think that now?
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June 18, 2017Müәyyәn mәlumatlar öyrәnmәk baxımından yaxşıdı, amma 2002-ci ildә yazılıb vә artıq köhnәlmiş hesab etmәk olar. Bitirmәdim.
September 5, 2018
Pogodio je Todd dosta toga.
Read
July 5, 2022Didn't real all of, just the most relevant parts about Russia and Ukraine
January 15, 2025
Mind-blowing
Scary and cruel radiography, this book is a must read. The facts, the numbers, the statistics are simply undeniable truth.
Scary and cruel radiography, this book is a must read. The facts, the numbers, the statistics are simply undeniable truth.
March 3, 2025
كتاب سئ ، وترجمته سيئة .
August 11, 2025
very well written but also extremely hard to follow took me days to finish
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