Condorcet is one of these historical figures that one can admire for his courage and humanity. As with all of these figures, they’re often despised and honoured at the same time. Being trained as a mathematician and a philosopher, he provoked hostility in academic circles for his original ideas, while at the same time collecting a following of believers. In politics he was no different: being a staunch supporter of the French monarchy, he switched sides when he learned about the king’s flight and eventual capture. He then went on to promote the same points he had done, initially gathering some support but in the end costing him his life – he was branded a criminal and arrested on the run. His dead body was found in his cell, and there is no information about the circumstances of his death. Some say it’s suicide, others claim he was assassinated. We probably will never know the truth.
Condorcet was one of the last French ‘philosophes’, and (correct me if I’m wrong) the only one who actually witnessed the Enlightenment ideas being put into practice during the French Revolution. As with most of the intellectuals of this ideology, he emphasized reason as the means to understand the world, and through this make it a better place. Reason allegedly shows us the equality of all people, no matter race, colour or creed; the human bond between all nations; the intrinsic human desire to be free of oppression and pursue own goals; and, last but not least, the obstacles of absolutism, mercantilism and religion in the way of attaining this final state of liberty, equality and brotherhood.
Condorcet is arguably the most radical of these philosophes, and this shows in his Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind. Written shortly before his arrest and subsequent death, published posthumously, its function was to serve as the introduction to a multi-volume work in which Condorcet planned to flesh out all the historical developments that led to the current state of affairs, and also to offer a detailed projection of the future state of humanity.
The book itself is pretty straightforward: Condorcet distinguishes nine historical phases of humanity. The future of mankind is the tenth phase. Each phase is characterized by its own developments and people, yet there are some general themes running through history – all evolving towards the final state. The first two stages are shared by all civilizations: they are the formation of human groups along family lines during the hunter and gatherer stage, and the amalgamation of groups into agricultural collectives. Many societies never got past this stage; many others did. The societies who did are characterized by primitive science and mythology, as well as the discovery of writing.
From then on, a dualism kicks in. Due to division of labour and social stratification there develops a caste of elites whose sole raison d’être is holding on to their power. To do this, they start studying the universe to harness its powers while at the same time deluding the people and distorting their wills through occult rituals and stupid religious doctrines. This caste becomes the priests. Besides this, there is this hereditary class of land- and slave-owners who control the populace through wealth and military force. This class becomes the aristocracy.
According to Condorcet, Greece was an exception. It was a trade hub and the continuous circulation of ideas meant that priests never could control the people and absolute power was absent. Alas, all changed when the brutish Romans destroyed this civilization. Most of the world is still in these primitive stages of delusion and corruption.
It was only after the Muslim conquest of the East that old knowledge (from the Greeks) started flooding back into Europe, leading to the Renaissance and, through the printing press, to the Reformation. The Reformation, since it’s rooted in the idea of personal judgment and interpretation, sowed the seeds of liberalism, that would took off from John Locke onwards. The idea of liberty for all was the main spring for the American and the French Revolutions.
Through these two millennia humanity saw a continuous battle between religion and force on the one side, and reason on the opposing side. Religious delusions and feudal oppression, with its offspring mercantilism, were on the losing side through – humanity is somehow destined to acquire freedom. And this is because reason is its sole arbitrator: reason discovered the scientific method, which was so successful in understanding the universe, and through this, controlling it. For Condorcet, a trained mathematician, when it comes to humanity – practical ethics, politics, psychology, the study of society, etc. – this same scientific method of observation, experiment and mathematical calculations has to be applied.
Condorcet, unlike some of his peers, recognized the gradualness of scientific knowledge. He clearly sees how natural sciences are much more precise and certain compared to the human sciences. In the latter sphere, probability is all that can be established. His claim is that a probability calculus is the solution to a whole collection of problems: How to establish the general will of the people in a democracy? How to predict likely future scenarios based on earlier data? Etc. etc.
On each page you read Condorcet fulminating against all the delusions and superstitions of stupid religious people, as well as all the machiavellism of the absolutist establishment. Both have joined forces to oppress the people through ignorance.
The general thought of Enlightenment philosophers and intellectuals was the reason is the royal road to knowledge, and knowledge is the cure to all the ills in the world. A criminal commits his heinous act through lack of knowledge – re-educate him and he will do otherwise. The people will not revolt, and if they do are almost sure to fail in establishing significant changes, because they are ignorant of their own value and respect. Educate them and they will change the world for the better. In short: knowledge is key, and this requires reason – i.e. mathematical deduction and empirical experiments. Of course, not anyone can be a trained scientist or mathematician, but Condorcet clearly sees the value of having a highly educated population: they will be able to better choose their representatives and judge experts.
So far, this sounds rather like the musings of a modern scientist or intellectual. It is difficult to transport yourself to these ancient times when this type of worldview was radically new or challenging to established principles. I think modern science has vindicated a lot of Condorcet’s claims, and there have been many, many improvements in human existence along the lines Condorcet sketched. Just read Steven Pinker’s book Enlightenment Now (2017) and you’ll be convinced.
But underlying these trains of thought lie two fundamental problems. The first is Condorcet’s historicism. He generalizes the whole human history and suffers from selectivity bias. That is, he picks out those historical times and places that serve his purpose of illustrating progress. It is heavily Greek-centred, and there is no argument whatsoever about why, for example, India or China haven’t been fundamental in human history. History evolves through the principle of freedom, which sees itself being repressed and then pop up at times and places when it’s least expected – mostly through the work of historical figures and geniuses. In this sense, Condorcet is Hegel in plain language.
Now, I simply don’t believe in historicism. There is no proof of historical laws, be they linear or cyclical. I subscribe to Karl Popper’s thesis on the impossibility of historical laws – any future prediction is, by definition, incorporated into the current stage, which will, by definition, change the future state of affairs. I also reject historical generalization: to reduce all of history to the development of equality or liberty, is simply reductionism of the absurd type. It is easy to see how Condorcet was prone to be swept away by his own ideals, training and human kindness – I even sympathize with him for this – yet it simply is untrue.
The second fundamental problem in Condorcet’s sketch is his narrow focus on reason. The ideal society is a world civilization, characterized by brotherly love; the abolishment of all inequality (including marriage and slavery) apart from inequality due to talents; the establishment of a very clear and distinct universal language; the modelling of society on scientific principles; etc. Years ago, I was a full blown adept of the Enlightenment ideals and their implications. I’ve come to realize over the years that human freedom isn’t compatible with a society modelled on scientific knowledge. I don’t believe that knowledge is the magic cure that heals all ills. Human freedom means taking risks, being irrational, which is something the mathematical mind abhors. This is why I reject socialism and religion alike – it is also why I reject science as the bedrock of ethics. For me human liberty comes first, and after this we can talk about other ethical dilemmas – I fully subscribe to Hayek’s thesis that there is no person or party that has more information about your situation compared to yourself, and hence there is no one but yourself who can make the best decision in your current situation. Any generalization means loss of freedom – this is fine when it comes to scientific knowledge, but it is dangerous when it comes to politics.
Right now we are in the midst of a global pandemic, and the first thing that gets thrown out is human freedom. You see the same thing in all the current political issues: Climate change? More government, more restrictions, more enforcement! Health risks (e.g. smoking)? More government, more restrictions, more enforcement!
Condorcet wants to educate the people to improve the world – a laudable goal. More knowledge means more freedom. Yet he also wants reason to dictate society. More knowledge means less freedom. I have struggled with this Enlightenment paradox for many years, and I feel like there is no way out.
A third and final problem for Condorcet is his overlooking the fact that all of the human sciences are intrinsically value-laden. A sociologist or an economist start from personal assumptions that are never mentioned. For example, any economic model is based, among other things, on the developer’s assumptions about what’s good and bad. Given the same problem, a Marxist and a libertarian would come up with two radically different (and mutually exclusive) solutions. Both can be true, yet what one gets to be the dominant one is a political question – and this boils down to simplistic power struggles that decide which system of ethics wins.
Anyway, reading this book made me both ponder the progress we’ve made as a species in the last couple of centuries as well as my own intellectual growth over the years. It also made me realize how different our modern outlook on things like truth, knowledge, reality, progress, etc. is compared to these Enlightenment thinkers’, yet at the same how much debt we owe to these original and courageous people. Throughout this work you see Condorcet fulminating against the horrific acts of slavery committed by Europeans, against the systematic oppression of women and their second-rate social states, against the ignorance of the masses, and the machiavellism of the elites (still with us today, unfortunately). He never got to enjoy the publication of his work – he died alone in a cold cell because of who knows what.
One of the most amazing experiences a reader can ask for, is the deep feeling of intimacy with another person. Reading this book transports you to an age long gone, listening to the musings of a wonderful humane person, seeing the world through his eyes and realizing it takes courage to point to wrong-doings, let alone attempt to change things. Read it, it is well worth your time!