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The William G. Bowen Series

Crossing the Finish Line: Completing College at America's Public Universities

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The United States has long been a model for accessible, affordable education, as exemplified by the country's public universities. And yet less than 60 percent of the students entering American universities today are graduating. Why is this happening, and what can be done? Crossing the Finish Line provides the most detailed exploration ever of college completion at America's public universities. This groundbreaking book sheds light on such serious issues as dropout rates linked to race, gender, and socioeconomic status.


Probing graduation rates at twenty-one flagship public universities and four statewide systems of public higher education, the authors focus on the progress of students in the entering class of 1999--from entry to graduation, transfer, or withdrawal. They examine the effects of parental education, family income, race and gender, high school grades, test scores, financial aid, and characteristics of universities attended (especially their selectivity). The conclusions are compelling: minority students and students from poor families have markedly lower graduation rates--and take longer to earn degrees--even when other variables are taken into account. Noting the strong performance of transfer students and the effects of financial constraints on student retention, the authors call for improved transfer and financial aid policies, and suggest ways of improving the sorting processes that match students to institutions.


An outstanding combination of evidence and analysis, Crossing the Finish Line should be read by everyone who cares about the nation's higher education system.

416 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2009

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About the author

William G. Bowen

41 books4 followers
President emeritus of the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and Princeton University. He is the author or coauthor of many books, including the acclaimed bestseller The Shape of the River: Long-Term Consequences of Considering Race in College and University Admissions, Crossing the Finish Line: Completing College at America's Public Universities, and Lessons Learned: Reflections of a University President (all Princeton).

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Displaying 1 - 13 of 13 reviews
Profile Image for J.L.   Sutton.
666 reviews1,255 followers
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December 16, 2015
Bowen examines the trends associated with persistence and completion at public universities; he argues that to stay globally competitive the U.S. needs to increase its level of educational attainment. Bowen cites many studies about the disparities of educational attainment across various ethnic, gender and socio-economic divides; however, despite any trends, Bowen suggests it is up to individual institutions to promote the required knowledge, coping skills and supportive environment necessary for educational success.
Profile Image for Grrlscientist.
163 reviews26 followers
February 18, 2018
In the United States, earning a bachelor’s degree is recognised as the most important factor for reducing economic inequality and increasing social mobility. But since the mid-1970s, university graduation rates have stagnated and disparities in educational outcomes have risen both among ethnic minorities and among those with low socioeconomic status. In Crossing the Finish Line , authors William Bowen, Matthew Chingos and Michael McPherson analyse these troubling trends and propose solutions to help colleges support their students more effectively.

Using regression analysis, the authors tracked and compared degree-completion rates for different groups based on various criteria. They found that students with low socioeconomic status and those from ethnic minorities — particularly black men and Hispanic students — were least likely to graduate. The authors also tested the predictive limitations of college admissions-test scores, the effectiveness of need-based financial aid and the ease of transferring between institutions. Although focused on the US educational system, these data contain warnings that other countries should heed.

By following the incoming class of roughly 125,000 freshmen entering their first course at 68 US universities in 1999, the authors show that degree completion has slowed to unacceptably low levels. Just 65% of full-time students graduated in four years from the most selective ‘flagship’ universities, and only half graduated within six years from the least selective public universities. The authors argue that for those students who complete their education, delaying degree attainment from the standard four years to five or six years increases their financial burden and limits their future educational and career opportunities.

Admissions mechanisms, such as the sorting of applicants by universities and colleges and the reliance on standardised tests, dictate which types of institutions students attend. However, student scores on the SAT Reasoning Test (formerly the Scholastic Assessment Test) or the American College Test (ACT) are known to be heavily biased by gender, race and socioeconomic status, such that high test scores and wealth go hand-in-hand, often conferring an advantage on white male students. Interestingly, the authors’ analyses revealed that scores from the SAT and the ACT do not predict graduation rates. Instead, high-school grade-point average is the most powerful predictor of both four-year and six-year graduation rates, regardless of the quality of the high school attended. Another surprise was that the scores from tests in individual subjects were able to predict graduation rates: both Advanced Placement tests and SAT Subject Tests (additional exams required by selective universities) were strongly predictive.

The authors found that academically overqualified students who attend less-demanding schools — known as undermatching — have a significantly higher probability of never completing their degrees than comparably qualified students who attend more-selective universities. This is especially prevalent among black men, they note. Many minority students and those of low socioeconomic status undermatch: 59% of students in the bottom quartile of family income do so, compared with 27% of those in the top quartile. In addition, 64% of students whose parents have no college education undermatch, compared with 41% and 31% of those whose parents have college or graduate degrees, respectively.

Difficulty in transferring between colleges also disproportionately affects students from minorities and of low socioeconomic status. For example, students who sought to save money by completing the first two years of their degree at a local community college before transferring to a more expensive public university for the remaining two years had an especially low graduation rate owing to limited transfer opportunities. However, those who did manage to gain later admission into a four-year-institution did well — better, in fact, than first-time freshmen with stronger pre-college credentials who went directly to a four-year university.

The authors offer several solutions to these worrying trends. They include: early identification of high-performing students from disadvantaged backgrounds and then tracking them to prevent undermatching; greater investment in need-based financial aid to help qualified students of low socioeconomic status to enter a four-year institution directly; and encouraging four-year universities to accept more transfer students.

Crossing the Finish Line serves as a wake-up call to educators and administrators, and provides valuable data that will help universities invest their resources in nurturing the talents of all their students. It also provides a disturbing glimpse of the far-reaching effects of limited expectations and diminished educational opportunities.


NOTE: Originally published (in print) by Nature on 25 November 2009.
Profile Image for Charles Moody.
26 reviews4 followers
October 26, 2012
This is an enormously valuable book reporting the findings of a study into the graduation rates at 21 flagship university systems and four statewide systems of public higher education. The rate of increase of overall educational attainment in the United States has slowed since about 1975, a development that the authors argue should be alarming and also puzzling, in light of the growing wage premium for college graduates. In other words, there is a strong demand for college graduates and a strong financial incentive to complete college, but there is still a “supply problem”: we are not producing the numbers of college graduates we need. Moreover, this supply problem has nothing to do with aspirations; more than ever before, students of all backgrounds aspire to a college education. But many of them are unable to realize that aspiration.

This study seeks to answer the crucial question: why? It tries to pin down which students are completing college and which are not, and whether the key obstacles are academic, financial, or other. It provides very valuable data bearing on questions such as: Are there significant differences for students who start at two-year programs and transfer into four-year programs, versus those who enter as first-time freshmen? What is the predictive power of high school grades, SAT/ACT tests, and subject-specific achievement tests? Do students whose high school preparation qualifies them to attend a more selective institution, but who choose for financial or other reasons to attend a less selective one, reduce their chances of graduation?

I know from working in high schools that the “college is college” mentality is far too prevalent. High schools may be judged by the number of their graduates who complete a college application and gain admission to some school; they are unlikely to be judged by how many of those students actually reach their goal of earning a college degree, and most therefore seem far less interested in tracking this than they should be. This book is a great resource for high school leaders and policymakers who want to change this picture and do better for our students.
Profile Image for McKenzie.
792 reviews8 followers
November 15, 2011
Bowen's extensive quantitative research into why almost 40% of American students do not graduate from college is very illuminating, and the scope of this research project allows many patterns to emerge which are difficult to understand in single-university studies. I agree that administrators should be more focused on how many students graduate, instead of how many students matriculate. Though understanding the patterns is the first important step, it is up to readers of this research to decide how to use the knowledge provided by Bowen to improve university programs to ensure graduation rates increase.
Profile Image for BM.
322 reviews2 followers
June 22, 2012
Lots of numbers, charts and data. Good organization in that you can go directly to the sections you're interested in researching. Financial aid and the idea of "undermatching" were good topics to try and understand how they would impact attainment rates. With all the discussion about the high price of colleges, understanding the levers that affect financial aid-- grants vs. loans and in what amounts are vital to figuring out how to help students actually finish college. Not just go there for a few years and accumulate debt. That also includes how many two-year degrees get transferred into four-year ones.
12 reviews2 followers
December 17, 2016
Very well researched. Uses data sets from very large universities. It doesn't necessarily translate to all universities, but Bowen was a president of Princeton. McPherson was a president of Macalester. So there may be some transcendent themes here.
1,087 reviews11 followers
November 28, 2009
Really fascinating look at a newly created data set and what it says about completion at four-year universities. Very quantitative.
Profile Image for Nathan Smith.
20 reviews
May 3, 2011
A must read for those that are working with college-bound youth.
Profile Image for JoLynn.
106 reviews30 followers
June 4, 2012
Suggests that we need to do a better job of matching students to the most challenging programs that they are suited for, and that this will result in higher graduation rates.
Profile Image for Rachel.
20 reviews5 followers
May 2, 2010
Wonderfully informative for any educator passionate about first generation college students!
Displaying 1 - 13 of 13 reviews

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