The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War and Business

by William L. Silber

Following books by Malcolm Gladwell and Dan Ariely, noted economics professor William L. Silber explores the Hail Mary effect, from its origins in sports to its applications to history, nature, politics, and business.
A quarterback like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers gambles with a Hail Mary pass at the end of a football game when he has nothing to lose — the risky throw might turn defeat into victory, or end in a meaningless interception. Rodgers may not realize it, but he has much in common with figures such as George Washington, Rosa Parks, Woodrow Wilson, and Adolph Hitler, all of whom changed the modern world with their risk-loving decisions.

In The Power of Nothing to Lose, award-winning economist William Silber explores the phenomenon in politics, war, and business, where situations with a big upside and limited downside trigger gambling behavior like with a Hail Mary. Silber describes in colorful detail how the American Revolution turned on such a gamble. The famous scene of Washington crossing the Delaware on Christmas night to attack the enemy may not look like a Hail Mary, but it was. Washington said days before his risky decision, "If this fails I think the game will be pretty well up." Rosa Parks remained seated in the white section of an Alabama bus, defying local segregation laws, an act that sparked the modern civil rights movement in America. It was a life-threatening decision for her, but she said, "I was not frightened. I just made up my mind that as long as we accepted that kind of treatment it would continue, so I had nothing to lose."

The risky exploits of George Washington and Rosa Parks made the world a better place, but demagogues have inflicted great damage with Hail Marys. Towards the end of World War II, Adolph Hitler ordered a desperate counterattack, the Battle of the Bulge, to stem the Allied advance into Germany. He said, "The outcome of the battle would spell either life or death for the German nation." Hitler failed to change the war's outcome, but his desperate gamble inflicted great collateral damage, including the worst wartime atrocity on American troops in Europe.

Silber shares these illuminating insights on these figures and more, from Woodrow Wilson to Donald Trump, asylum seekers to terrorists and rogue traders. Collectively they illustrate that downside protection fosters risky undertakings, that it changes the world in ways we least expect.

Genres: Audiobook, Politics, Nonfiction, Business, History

239 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 17, 2021

About the author

William L. Silber is a former chaired professor at The Stern School of Business, New York University, most recently as the Marcus Nadler Professor of Finance and Economics (2002-2019) and before that as the Abraham Gitlow Professor of Economics and Finance (1990-2002). He has served as Senior Economist with the President's Council of Economic Advisors, and was a member of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Silber holds a bachelor's degree (1963) from Yeshiva University, and an M.A. (1965) and Ph.D. (1966) from Princeton University.

Reviews

[Lilli · Rating 2 out of 5]

Entertaining enough but really doesn’t feel like it’s saying a whole lot that isn’t fairly obvious to most of us.

[Brendan · Rating 2 out of 5]

It’s fairly self-evident that people with “nothing to lose” often - and reasonably- take big gambles. So self-evident that it’s hard to see how this tendency is worthy of a book. And, indeed, Silber has little more interesting to say about it, mainly relating some famous examples from history.

The more interesting subjects are mostly unexplored, such as whether the Allies should have given Hitler “something to lose” to avoid gambles like the Battle of the Bulge that lead to pointless loss of life in a lost war. Or whether people falsely perceive they have nothing to lose and act unnecessarily recklessly, or fail to act aggressively when they truly have nothing to lose.

The writing is also bizarre, misfocused, and inaccurate. Silber is weirdly focused on personal appearances, listing, for instance, the height of each German general for some reason. He laments the unnecessary Battle as having led to the Malmedy massacre of 71 American POWs, rather than the tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides who died in the fighting. He has an extended section on Rosa Parks and the Montgomery bus boycott that makes little sense because Parks and her husband were fired from their jobs and they and other civil rights leaders had their lives threatened - they definitely had “something to lose” and that’s what makes them heroic! The entire book seems like an excuse for Silber to write about a few long shot efforts he finds interesting. The events are significant, but the book is not insightful aside from a chapter about criminals sentenced to life sentences and whether they have nothing to lose and how this impacts their behavior.

[Paul Vogelzang · Rating 5 out of 5]

A great book for all ages about life and risk. Great stuff.

[Arun Narayanaswamy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Strong captivating stories from history to fairly new which help capture the reasoning in why people act and behave differently when there is nothing to lose. And how that puts them in a superior position during a face off. And even more important was the aspect on how to face people or situations when you are on the other end.
Good book overall

[Clayton · Rating 2 out of 5]

A pointless, disorganized mess of stories of underdogs and actions taken when one has nothing to lose. No real clear practical application. Skip this one.

[Janine Sneed · Rating 3 out of 5]

The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business by William Silber

1.) when you have absolutely nothing to lose, you go for it

2.) the lower the downside, the bigger the bet

3.) examples: lame duck presidents, big troubled traders, civil rights terminally ill, prisoners

[James Fok · Rating 5 out of 5]

Important real-life lessons about incentive structures

A concise book about the power of incentive structures and asymmetric pay-offs, illustrated by a wide range of different examples and stories. Highly recommended reading for policymakers and corporate leaders.

[Jarrett · Rating 4 out of 5]

Just send it

[sk B · Rating 2 out of 5]

Basic examples of hail mary moments in history but failed to add much value. Did not feel like I learned anything new.

[John Merrick · Rating 5 out of 5]

Silber composes a series of vignettes showing us how otherwise risk-averse individuals can calmly choose seemingly risky actions. Yes, real options exist and initial conditions matter. People see things in differently after being backed into a situation where there is nothing to lose. While some of Silber’s “Hail Mary” passes are easy for all fans to support, he highlights the collateral damage of an individual taking a personally optimal, but socially costly, last-gasp long-shot. While the immediate family may stand and cheer, not everyone in the stadium applauds the doctor who approves resource-intensive procedures aimed at a “better than death” outcome for a terminally-ill patient. To the general reader’s advantage, Silber’s lively storytelling get us to really feel the issues, introducing us in each chapter to people, situations, and consequences that matter. Highly recommended!

[Vanessa Olson · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting book and theory. The author set it up really well and started strong. Unfortunately, some of the examples didn't really fit (Trump and the COVID-19 pandemic - why does this have to factor into every nonfiction book now?) and others were frankly a little offensive (The 9/11 terrorists? Yes, really, that's what he chose to end the book on!). This one ended up falling a little flat for me.

[Linda · Rating 1 out of 5]

A bit of a disappointment to be honest. Didn’t love it, didn’t hate it, but wouldn’t recommend it. I couldn’t derive any practical application from it. It was all just stories. I wish he delved into how to determine risk or what to consider when calculating what you have to lose. Neither applicable nor motivational.

1.5/5

[Luke Johnson · Rating 2 out of 5]

Decent enough book but it looks at a lot of history with rose tinted glasses. By failing to paint the bigger picture, a lot of these essays only deliver part of the story. Often, very important parts of the story.

[Mujahid Aziz · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great book the dates at the begin had to review recap on a timeline the abilities to apply this effect in there your life. Jumped around like loopers or a time machine of timeline of sports was fun experience at the end of the day.

[Sung Jin · Rating 3 out of 5]

Not that impressive nor profound. Though the author draws some interesting anecdotal examples from history, finance, politics, sports and so on... to make his point and it's easy to follow.

[Mark Olowinski · Rating 3 out of 5]

Reminded me a little of The Power of Habit but not nearly as good.

[Ross Smith · Rating 1 out of 5]

This was a disappointment - lots of negative stories on the influence of nothing to lose on people in dire straights - I was hoping for a happier ending.

[Nicole Garrett · Rating 1 out of 5]

I would skip this book. It was a book of short stories that were suppose to be about taking risk but it was difficult to get the lessons learned or key takeaways from the passages.

[Nicole Hackney]

Couldn't enjoy the narrator of the audio book. Abandoned, may return to later.

[SpookySoto · Rating 2 out of 5]

Rating: I didn't like it 😞
Format: Audiobook
Nonfiction November 2023

This is a collection of random essays, it stays at the surface level, it doesn't try to analyze or explain why people act in a certain way when they have nothing to lose.

I don't recommend it