Thank goodness, they actually acknowledge that anti-vaxxers and climate deniers have justifications for their beliefs (Other authors seem to assume the victims of these mind-viruses, believe what they in fact know is not true--that they have no justifications at all, but just believe in the face of irrefutable proof to the contrary). Now, of course, the authors think their evidence is so bad and the contrary evidence so strong, that they are not justified and do not have knowledge.
Why do the authors harp on these issues the most? They are moral in their consequences, as these beliefs can lead to personal and societal ills, and thus there is a greater responsibility to form true beliefs. Like the ship owner in Clifford’s parable, they are morally culpable for believing what they do, since it goes against the best available evidence.
It is curious to me, that numerous anti-vaxxers have likely delved into the literature on the issue and don’t think themselves to be basing their thinking on poor evidence. It may begin by their being moved by a tragic story from a celebrity or by being pointed to certain anomalies, problems in the common narrative, and some seemingly related facts proving unintended consequences from vaccines in history; it all seems persuasive, and their further investigation is fueled by fear for their own and other people’s children. They don’t want to cause harm and it looks like society is buying into something that is disastrous.
Vaccines are not something that many of us think about on a normal basis; activists may be the first to bring it to their attention, or maybe, their child got autism, and this was shortly after vaccinations, and upon getting online, they see multitudes of others noticed the same correlation of events. So, the first time they really think about the vaccine issue is from a certain angle, meaning an anchoring bias will likely come into play thereafter.
Now they know there are many people out there who support their newfound position. While researching contrary claims, they are ever aware that there are “two sides” to every major issue; regardless of their stance, someone would hold another view and think them irrational, deluded, and wrongheaded. If they are going to choose, they should go with the view that seems most true to them. The Anchoring bias means that claims aligned with the anti-vaxxer message have more truthiness to them; they seem more reasonable and sounder, and what is out of alignment with the message has the ring of falseness in their heads. Many of us have a sense of obligation to believe what seems “true” and we feel morally compelled to affirm the unpopular and counter-establishment message. Also, there is an army of Anti-vaxxers who debunk the debunkers; or point out the flaws in the pro-vaccine majorities argument; Also, the fact that the pro-vaccine party often expresses such contempt for them, and express such fervent dogmatism and how they address none of their concerns, makes the conversation seem impossible. It is the pro-vaccine majority who suppress and twist the evidence, and the anti-vaxxers have truth, reason, and evidence on their side. Since this is a serious matter, affecting the health of children, emotions can flare and full-blown myside bias can make it near impossible to change their position.
And yet, anti-vaxxers, the authors suggest, must consort to a form of conspiracy-type thinking, in order to dismiss the large number of scientific studies that suggest that there is no causative link between autism and vaccines. The popular claim that vaccines cause autism is related to poor causal reasoning. Correlation does not prove causation. While correlation is grounds for a hypothesis, serious research is needed to determine if there is perhaps a causal relationship on a complex matter like this. It is also the cause that problems with one study showing no causal link between vaccines and autism, which is not proof that all research on the matter is flawed, this would be a weak generalization.
Learning the principles of induction can come into play. Surely understanding the difficulties of determining causation, can give one pause with aspects of arguments from the ant-vaccination camp, and understanding that pointing out some rot in the pro-vaccine camp doesn’t prove it is systemic. Someone still might lean towards them, but maybe with less certitude? Science is an ever-adjusting enterprise, a tweak in a research design could reveal something not before seen. In this case, because causation in some matters is so hard to ascertain, the anti-vaxxers could at least lower the degree of certainty; and even those pro-vaccine, who have “science” on their side, should be humble enough to know some new findings could completely overturn what was once declared to be fact.
Now, this is interesting. He mentions undercutting defeaters (underminers) vs rebuttals
While discussing underminers; they highlight the importance of considering all of the available evidence. Suppose, the fingerprints of person X, are all over the house of the murder victim. This could be considered evidence that Person X committed the crime; however, if the suspect was a friend and regularly came over, it weakens this piece of evidence. While it is still a possibility that his friend was the killer, it is a little less certain. Now, what if it was person X’s gun that killed the victim? That is very strong evidence, and yet if it was learned that person X loaned his gun out to someone else prior to the murder and that person stated the borrowed gun was stolen from his house; well, this undermines it somewhat.
Rebutting: Now if it was proven the suspect was in another country when the shooting happened or was in a coma due to a car accident, this rebuts the claim. (this is the first time I’ve heard rebut used in this strong sense, I would prefer to use the word “defeater” and yet, the authors use this in connection to undercutters).
Conflicts of interest are underminers, if anti-vaxxers could demonstrate that the ones who ordered the research were funded by the companies making billions of dollars selling mandatory vaccines, this is an underminer, it weakens the evidence, however, it does not rebut it.
Now, just consider the folly of ONLY looking for evidence that someone is guilty, without considering the undercutting defeaters, or whether there is a clear rebuttal. They really demonstrate the importance of this with their examples.
And yet, I highly, highly doubt these authors would be even open to considering any undercutters or possible rebuttals of the mainstream claim that global warming is caused by human activity. I wish for just one book on this topic of critical thinking, in which the authors could demonstrate the ability to do so; it is clear from their contempt for “climate deniers” that they, take global warming being anthropogenic as an article of faith and it cannot be a question or rationally appraised. To do so, would threaten humanity since if we don’t stop using fossil fuels now, we will soon reach the point of no return and all of humanity will perish.
It is clear to me, that tragically, even with a clear rebuttal, or conclusive evidence to the contrary, people will resist it. For example, body camera footage that is contrary to the “lived experience” of someone claiming injustice. It is always possible to double down, to claim the body camera is a simulation and a deep fake. The authors would likely, without any investigation, claim that any nuanced claim questioning the degree of human activity on climate change, is just funded by big oil and must be dismissed without investigation. They have the knowledge, everyone else has a mental disease.
We are supposed to consider all the evidence, but as they acknowledge, everyone considers different things to be evidence or no evidence, we all have a different sense of what is strong or weak, and major degrees of ignorance are there for us all.
They discuss how knowledge is justified by true belief.
Interestingly, Sally, without any additional evidence can believe that Sam killed Fred, simply because she knew Sam didn’t like Fred. And if this was true, she would have an unjustified true belief. And Tim, based upon the fingerprints and the gun used, could instead, believe it was Fred’s friend Bill who did it. In which case, he has a justified false belief.
The author then moves into the topic of probability. Things move towards justified belief, when it seems more probable that the claim is true, given all the available evidence. Yet no one can agree when this scale is tipped, people weigh things differently.
Interestingly, they confidently assert that global warming is caused by human activity is “knowledge,” while claiming that the many scientists of the past, who believed things based upon the best available data (which was later overturned), did not actually have the knowledge, while they thought they did. The cause of climate change is remarkably complicated, multitudes of factors work together in hard to predict manners, and it is conceivable that scientists will uncover additional causal factors. Considering the long chain of false predictions made by climate scientists, there is very, very good reason to think we don’t yet have “knowledge” on this subject. Global warming alarmists may have a justified belief, but only time and additional research will tell whether it is a justified TRUE belief.