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The Great Decoupling
For much of recorded history, China was a leading science and technology power. But just as the West rose, China turned in on itself, and missed the Industrial Revolution. The result was the 'Hundred Years of Humiliation', and a long struggle for a modern, yet distinctly Chinese, civilisational identity. Today, technological innovation has returned to the core of national pride and ambition.
Since the 1980s, reforms have transformed China into the world's second largest economy and a major global power. Cyber space and other advanced technologies have become a battleground for international dominance; but today's world relies on global supply chains and interstate collaboration--at least, for now. Growing tension between the USA and China could result in the two superpowers decoupling their technology--with significant consequences for humanity's future.
The Great Decoupling shows that this technology contest, and how it plays out, will shape the geopolitics of the twenty-first century.
Since the 1980s, reforms have transformed China into the world's second largest economy and a major global power. Cyber space and other advanced technologies have become a battleground for international dominance; but today's world relies on global supply chains and interstate collaboration--at least, for now. Growing tension between the USA and China could result in the two superpowers decoupling their technology--with significant consequences for humanity's future.
The Great Decoupling shows that this technology contest, and how it plays out, will shape the geopolitics of the twenty-first century.
304 pages, Hardcover
Published December 1, 2020
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Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews
March 15, 2021
In 'The Great Decoupling', former MI6 director of operations and intelligence Nigel Inkster explores the growing tensions between the US and China and assesses the prospects for an economic and technological “decoupling” between the two.
Inkster documents China’s emergence as a technology superpower over the past four decades, starting with the Chinese Communist Party’s realisation in the early 1980s that ICT was likely to constitute a “strategic high ground” for the foreseeable future.
To observers in the West at the time, the idea of China as a peer competitor in science and technology must have seemed absurd, given that the “comparative advantage” it offered to global value chains was its abundance of cheap and competent labour, put to work primarily in light manufacturing.
As the economist Justin Yifu Lin has written, “technological innovation is not a free lunch, it needs capital.”
The government devised a long-term strategy to transform itself into a technology powerhouse, leverage China’s huge labour force to develop of the generation foreign exchange, import technology and learn technique, while simultaneously improving the quality of life for hundreds of millions of people.
The success of that strategy is becoming increasingly apparent. China has already moved into the lead in several important areas of technology, most notably 5G infrastructure, and is catching up fast in others.
Companies such as Huawei, Alibaba, Lenovo and ByteDance are encroaching on a space that the US has become accustomed to dominating.
Inkster believes that, with China’s technological rise, some level of decoupling is inevitable. The US, unable to accept China’s presence in a level playing field, will seek to reduce its engagement and to limit Chinese development.
It will shift a significant proportion of its capital investment, clamp down on Chinese investment in the US, seek to deny China access to knowledge and resources and encourage its allies to follow suit. Thus Inkster believes that the economic cold war on China will continue and will deepen.
The author points out that the road of decoupling is dangerous and expensive, citing Deutsche Bank technology strategist Apjit Walia’s calculation that a total technology decoupling from China could cost in the region of $3.5 trillion.
Bifurcation of technology standards will introduce unnecessary and expensive interoperability issues that will ultimately lead to increased costs, reduced profitability and reduced innovation.
It will become a source of global contention as countries around the world are forced to choose between the two major technology spheres.
And the cons may well outweigh the pros for US capitalism: “The US might end up isolating itself, damaging its prospects for future growth, reducing its relative power and diminishing rather than enhancing its security,” according to Inkster.
In spite of recognising these very real dangers of decoupling, Inkster’s narrative tends to legitimise the project, repeating every cold war trope about China being a “techno-security state” and categorising the Belt and Road Initiative as a means to “reshape the global order in ways favouring Chinese interests, potentially resulting in a world subject to Chinese hegemony.”
Throughout, Inkster highlights problems that affect many nations but which Western capitalist countries can be trusted to adequately resolve and China cannot.
For example, the author recognises the potential benefits of smart-city technologies — AI-enabled environmental protection and traffic management — but warns that “technologies designed to optimise efficient urban living can also be optimised for social control,” a concern is hardly unique to China.
His pro-Western bias — and his willingness to parrot discredited anti-China sources such as Adrian Zenz — prevent the author from building a rigorous critique of decoupling and urging Western politicians towards an alternative path.
This constitutes a significant weakness in what is otherwise a useful and detailed study of the ongoing technological competition between China and the US.
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/artic...
Inkster documents China’s emergence as a technology superpower over the past four decades, starting with the Chinese Communist Party’s realisation in the early 1980s that ICT was likely to constitute a “strategic high ground” for the foreseeable future.
To observers in the West at the time, the idea of China as a peer competitor in science and technology must have seemed absurd, given that the “comparative advantage” it offered to global value chains was its abundance of cheap and competent labour, put to work primarily in light manufacturing.
As the economist Justin Yifu Lin has written, “technological innovation is not a free lunch, it needs capital.”
The government devised a long-term strategy to transform itself into a technology powerhouse, leverage China’s huge labour force to develop of the generation foreign exchange, import technology and learn technique, while simultaneously improving the quality of life for hundreds of millions of people.
The success of that strategy is becoming increasingly apparent. China has already moved into the lead in several important areas of technology, most notably 5G infrastructure, and is catching up fast in others.
Companies such as Huawei, Alibaba, Lenovo and ByteDance are encroaching on a space that the US has become accustomed to dominating.
Inkster believes that, with China’s technological rise, some level of decoupling is inevitable. The US, unable to accept China’s presence in a level playing field, will seek to reduce its engagement and to limit Chinese development.
It will shift a significant proportion of its capital investment, clamp down on Chinese investment in the US, seek to deny China access to knowledge and resources and encourage its allies to follow suit. Thus Inkster believes that the economic cold war on China will continue and will deepen.
The author points out that the road of decoupling is dangerous and expensive, citing Deutsche Bank technology strategist Apjit Walia’s calculation that a total technology decoupling from China could cost in the region of $3.5 trillion.
Bifurcation of technology standards will introduce unnecessary and expensive interoperability issues that will ultimately lead to increased costs, reduced profitability and reduced innovation.
It will become a source of global contention as countries around the world are forced to choose between the two major technology spheres.
And the cons may well outweigh the pros for US capitalism: “The US might end up isolating itself, damaging its prospects for future growth, reducing its relative power and diminishing rather than enhancing its security,” according to Inkster.
In spite of recognising these very real dangers of decoupling, Inkster’s narrative tends to legitimise the project, repeating every cold war trope about China being a “techno-security state” and categorising the Belt and Road Initiative as a means to “reshape the global order in ways favouring Chinese interests, potentially resulting in a world subject to Chinese hegemony.”
Throughout, Inkster highlights problems that affect many nations but which Western capitalist countries can be trusted to adequately resolve and China cannot.
For example, the author recognises the potential benefits of smart-city technologies — AI-enabled environmental protection and traffic management — but warns that “technologies designed to optimise efficient urban living can also be optimised for social control,” a concern is hardly unique to China.
His pro-Western bias — and his willingness to parrot discredited anti-China sources such as Adrian Zenz — prevent the author from building a rigorous critique of decoupling and urging Western politicians towards an alternative path.
This constitutes a significant weakness in what is otherwise a useful and detailed study of the ongoing technological competition between China and the US.
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/artic...
July 27, 2022
5 stars because in a time when western thinkers find it hard to remain objective and can't resist being inundated in self-pity (very different from self-criticism) at an attempt to seem sophisticated, Nigel Inkster manages to resist this temptation and thus, provides a coherent, holistic and in-depth analysis.
Coming myself from a technical data-science-related background, I appreciated and saw a lot of the challenges posed here and Mr. Inkster has ample experience regarding China, starting from the 1976, after the fall of the Gang of Four. However, some things to be noted:
1. "The idea that was ultimately to exercise the greatest traction over modern China took concrete form in Shanghai in 1921. The disenchantment of many Chinese intellectuals with Western liberal ideas following the Treaty of Versailles was matched by an interest in Marxism following the October Revolution in Tsarist Russia and the establishment of the Soviet Union. "
Even though the Treaty of Versailles was largely disappointing and the agreements proved to be inadequate to prevent another World War from exploding, I find this paragraph to give the distinct idea that it was the failure of Western ideas that brought countries like China to resort to more authoritarian approaches, ironically missing the point that Marxism in itself is a western idea. This approach is largely present also in other similar arguments.
2. "But the problem of “administrative dominance” identified by the CCP Central Committee as a major barrier to progress in China’s higher education research culture remains an issue that has arguably been made even worse by the inclusion of ever more ideological content in university courses. The growing role of ideology in the Chinese university system was starkly illustrated when in December 2019 Fudan, a “key-point” university, altered its constitution, replacing a commitment to academic independence and freedom of thought with a pledge to accept the leadership of the CCP. "
I don't see this only explicitly as a disadvantage in China when the western education system is, at present, overwhelmingly inundated in ideology. Only recently in Italy, a course on Dostoevsky was cancelled, as the university stated "to avoid any controversy, in a moment of high tension."
Inter alia, these two particular paragraphs struck me the most with a sense of irony and despite these that had to be mentioned, I couldn't help but give this book a top review, for its erudition as well as the in-depth analysis. Definitely, a must read.
Coming myself from a technical data-science-related background, I appreciated and saw a lot of the challenges posed here and Mr. Inkster has ample experience regarding China, starting from the 1976, after the fall of the Gang of Four. However, some things to be noted:
1. "The idea that was ultimately to exercise the greatest traction over modern China took concrete form in Shanghai in 1921. The disenchantment of many Chinese intellectuals with Western liberal ideas following the Treaty of Versailles was matched by an interest in Marxism following the October Revolution in Tsarist Russia and the establishment of the Soviet Union. "
Even though the Treaty of Versailles was largely disappointing and the agreements proved to be inadequate to prevent another World War from exploding, I find this paragraph to give the distinct idea that it was the failure of Western ideas that brought countries like China to resort to more authoritarian approaches, ironically missing the point that Marxism in itself is a western idea. This approach is largely present also in other similar arguments.
2. "But the problem of “administrative dominance” identified by the CCP Central Committee as a major barrier to progress in China’s higher education research culture remains an issue that has arguably been made even worse by the inclusion of ever more ideological content in university courses. The growing role of ideology in the Chinese university system was starkly illustrated when in December 2019 Fudan, a “key-point” university, altered its constitution, replacing a commitment to academic independence and freedom of thought with a pledge to accept the leadership of the CCP. "
I don't see this only explicitly as a disadvantage in China when the western education system is, at present, overwhelmingly inundated in ideology. Only recently in Italy, a course on Dostoevsky was cancelled, as the university stated "to avoid any controversy, in a moment of high tension."
Inter alia, these two particular paragraphs struck me the most with a sense of irony and despite these that had to be mentioned, I couldn't help but give this book a top review, for its erudition as well as the in-depth analysis. Definitely, a must read.
March 2, 2021
An essential read for anyone interested in what makes China tick. As someone who has been involved with China for 30 years, this book does help you to contextualise some attitudes and behaviours of the Chinese. It provides a compelling and powerful narrative of China's economic ambitions in digital, telecommunications. It also discusses the strategic goals of China with regard to the Belt & Road Initiave. Most importantly, throughout this book we sense the underlying discomfort between the US & China, the undeniable economic rivalry and why the author believes we are on course to witness this great decoupling.
May 13, 2025
W przystępny i kompleksowy sposób mamy tu omówioną rywalizację technologiczną Chin i Stanów Zjednoczonych. Autor stawia tezę, że dominacja w dziedzinie nowych technologii nie tylko wpływa na gospodarki obu krajów, ale ma również głęboki wpływ na globalną równowagę sił.
Książka łączy analizę historyczną, polityczną, technologiczną i ekonomiczną, co czyni ją wyjątkowo cenną lekturą dla osób chcących zrozumieć szeroki kontekst tej rywalizacji. Inkster nie ogranicza się do opisu bieżących wydarzeń, lecz sięga po głębszą refleksję, odnosząc się do wcześniejszych okresów historii. Zwraca uwagę na korzenie współczesnych napięć.
Dla osób, które interesują się geopolityką, książka Nigela Inkstera stanowi doskonałą okazję do zrozumienia, w jaki sposób nowoczesne technologie zmieniają światową politykę i gospodarkę. Współczesne wyzwania technologiczne, takie jak rozwój sztucznej inteligencji, zaawansowane systemy monitorowania czy kontrola nad globalnymi sieciami komunikacyjnymi, stały się kluczowymi elementami walki o dominację na świecie.
Książka łączy analizę historyczną, polityczną, technologiczną i ekonomiczną, co czyni ją wyjątkowo cenną lekturą dla osób chcących zrozumieć szeroki kontekst tej rywalizacji. Inkster nie ogranicza się do opisu bieżących wydarzeń, lecz sięga po głębszą refleksję, odnosząc się do wcześniejszych okresów historii. Zwraca uwagę na korzenie współczesnych napięć.
Dla osób, które interesują się geopolityką, książka Nigela Inkstera stanowi doskonałą okazję do zrozumienia, w jaki sposób nowoczesne technologie zmieniają światową politykę i gospodarkę. Współczesne wyzwania technologiczne, takie jak rozwój sztucznej inteligencji, zaawansowane systemy monitorowania czy kontrola nad globalnymi sieciami komunikacyjnymi, stały się kluczowymi elementami walki o dominację na świecie.
August 25, 2021
This is a very useful introduction to China, its recent history and how this shapes the thinking and behaviour of the ruling Communist Party. The tensions between China and the Western democratic world will shape the geopolitical landscape in the next 30 years. With this in mind, it is surprising that there is so little understanding in the US and Europe of China and the book looks to address this in an accessible, though at times very dry way. It would have been helpful to illustrate the material with more anecdotes and stories. The other slight disappointment was that the book deals almost exclusively with what has happened historically and only devotes the last 10 pages or so to charting what the future may hold. Hence 4 stars.
March 23, 2021
I really enjoyed this book. I first heard about it in a podcast by Intelligence Squared and it immediately sparked my interest because China is such a force to be reckoned with, both good and bad. It was really good to learn more about the country’s history and how it got to where it is today and the many mistakes that were made by the West in trying to manage China.
While I generally look at China with a lot of skepticism and sometimes fear, I also am in awe at its meteoric rise and development during the past 30 years.
This book definitely offers an excellent account that will enrich anyone’s understanding of this giant country and its ambitions.
While I generally look at China with a lot of skepticism and sometimes fear, I also am in awe at its meteoric rise and development during the past 30 years.
This book definitely offers an excellent account that will enrich anyone’s understanding of this giant country and its ambitions.
December 8, 2023
For much of recorded history, China was a leading science and technology power. But as the West rose, and China got pulled into their internal war on opium, it cost was for China to miss the Industrial Revolution. That too was later named as the "Hundred Years of Humiliation", leading China to a long struggle for a modern, yet distinctly Chinese, civilization identity. This book does not touch much on the ethical or moral side of the choices, which can be more emotionally and mentally triggering (and judgmental in ways). Instead author is focused on the facts, of what was, what is and what may be (from his perspective). We can make our own opinion later on.
December 20, 2021
One of my new favorite books. Well written and easy to read. My favorite aspect of the book is the included pinyin translations for the Chinese sayings sprinkled throughout the book. This is very helpful for a Chinese language learner such as myself.
April 1, 2021
This book is information rich. It covers technological relations between China and the US but also looks into how that affects other nations. It is a fascinating study.
December 1, 2023
For such a short book it's surprisingly holistic coverage of Chinese history, policy, existing state of military, tech industry, society that shapes the country decision-making. Highly recommended!
Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews