What do you think?
Rate this book
Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season
The 2009 edition of the New York Times bestselling guide to major league baseball that is simply “the best book of its kind” (Rob Neyer) Now in its fourteenth edition, the Baseball Prospectus annual is the industry leader among annual baseball guides and the rightful successor to Bill James’s legendary bestsellingBaseball Abstracts. The 2009 edition contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams. Each player’s statistics are projected for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, called “perhaps the game’s most accurate projection model” (Sports Illustrated). Baseball Prospectus 2009 also contains cutting-edge essays on performance analysis, the likes of which have inspired twenty-nine of the thirty major league teams to hire current and formerBaseball Prospectus writers and analysts as consultants. The baseball bible for fantasy players and devoted fans, Baseball Prospectus can be relied upon to once again hit it out of the park.
- GenresBaseballSportsNonfiction
648 pages, Paperback
First published February 16, 2009
4 people are currently reading
24 people want to read
About the author
Baseball Prospectus
140 books15 followersBaseball Prospectus is an organization that publishes a website, BaseballProspectus.com, devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. BP has a staff of regular columnists and provides advanced statistics as well as player and team performance projections on the site.
Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.
Since 1996 the BP staff has also published a Baseball Prospectus annual as well as several other books devoted to baseball analysis and history.
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 16 of 16 reviews
May 30, 2009
Baseball Prospectus has become one of those annual publications that comes out before the baseball season starts that helps give fans some perspective on the forthcoming season.
Data freaks will love the statistics developed by the folks at Baseball Prospectus. Readers must digest the different key statistics (such as VORP and PECOTA). So, be sure to read pages vii to xvi carefully. These pages explain the variety of statistics that have been developed for pitchers and everyday players.
There follows to bulk of the book, which analyzes each team and its players in turn, from Arizona Diamondbacks to Washington Nationals. The volume closes with about 35 pages of essays on subjects such as best prospects, stadium updates, and PECOTA leaderboards (predicting who will be tops in a variety of statistics). For the latter, take a look and then compare what the projected figures are actually like at the end of the season. For instance, C. C. Sabathia is projected to lead the majors in 2009 with 16 victories. Chipper Jones is projected as the batting leader in the big leagues, with an average of .341.
Let's take one team as an illustration. Since I'm a White Sox fan, I'll be a chauvinist and take a look at some of the information there. Brian Anderson is your basic "Good field, No hit" player. His PECOTA projects to a batting average of .232 (this would be the best hitting in his 3 major league seasons) with 8 home runs and 26 RBIs. Jermaine Dye's projections show some more decline, with a batting average of .271 (less than his average of the 3 preceding years), 25 home runs (another decline), and so on. What about A. J. Pierzynski, one of the most irritating players in baseball? A continuation of his recent slow decline is predicted. Another quick note on a feature. Each player is compared with a set of others (retired and active) whose statistics link them. For A. J.? Terry Kennedy, Javy Lopez, Sandy Alomar. The table for Pierzynski also provides guesses as to the odds of a collapse in his performance (41%), a breakout year (14%), improvement (30%), and attrition (38%).
Pitchers? Let's take just one as an example--John Danks. First, his comparison group--Ken Holtzman, Kevin Appier, and Bob Shirley. He is projected as having a 10-9 season, with an ERA of 4.27.
Anyhow, a lot of fun! I find myself in disagreement with some of the projections and that is a good part of the fun. For baseball fans who like their statistics in abundance, this book will serve you well.
Data freaks will love the statistics developed by the folks at Baseball Prospectus. Readers must digest the different key statistics (such as VORP and PECOTA). So, be sure to read pages vii to xvi carefully. These pages explain the variety of statistics that have been developed for pitchers and everyday players.
There follows to bulk of the book, which analyzes each team and its players in turn, from Arizona Diamondbacks to Washington Nationals. The volume closes with about 35 pages of essays on subjects such as best prospects, stadium updates, and PECOTA leaderboards (predicting who will be tops in a variety of statistics). For the latter, take a look and then compare what the projected figures are actually like at the end of the season. For instance, C. C. Sabathia is projected to lead the majors in 2009 with 16 victories. Chipper Jones is projected as the batting leader in the big leagues, with an average of .341.
Let's take one team as an illustration. Since I'm a White Sox fan, I'll be a chauvinist and take a look at some of the information there. Brian Anderson is your basic "Good field, No hit" player. His PECOTA projects to a batting average of .232 (this would be the best hitting in his 3 major league seasons) with 8 home runs and 26 RBIs. Jermaine Dye's projections show some more decline, with a batting average of .271 (less than his average of the 3 preceding years), 25 home runs (another decline), and so on. What about A. J. Pierzynski, one of the most irritating players in baseball? A continuation of his recent slow decline is predicted. Another quick note on a feature. Each player is compared with a set of others (retired and active) whose statistics link them. For A. J.? Terry Kennedy, Javy Lopez, Sandy Alomar. The table for Pierzynski also provides guesses as to the odds of a collapse in his performance (41%), a breakout year (14%), improvement (30%), and attrition (38%).
Pitchers? Let's take just one as an example--John Danks. First, his comparison group--Ken Holtzman, Kevin Appier, and Bob Shirley. He is projected as having a 10-9 season, with an ERA of 4.27.
Anyhow, a lot of fun! I find myself in disagreement with some of the projections and that is a good part of the fun. For baseball fans who like their statistics in abundance, this book will serve you well.
February 18, 2009
Following my own tradition, I read this nearly cover to cover overnight as soon as I bought it.
As a rabid Rays fan, I was mildly amused last year when Nate Silver and the folks at BP predicted around 88 wins for my boys, and then shocked when they were nearly exactly right. Two years ago they predicted that this Ryan Braun fella was going to be huge; he was, and he is.
It's relatively easy, though, to point out that a rookie who everyone knows is good is good. It's not easy but not impossible to point out that a team like the Rays has finally picked up some unusually good middle relief in Grant Balfour and a serviceable former star in Troy Percival. Harder is picking this year's Josh Hamilton, the guy who comes out of nowhere to hit like 30,000 home runs. BP's attitude is, "Well, there're always outliers," and they do a decent job using their attrition/breakout percentages of telling you who those are more or less likely to be.
The one-liners come on fast and thick this year. (My favorite is the entry for Alberto Bastardo... the jokes almost write themselves. Coco Crisp's entry is funny, too. I didn't know his real name.) The articles are better than usual. I didn't entirely understand the point of the article on MLB's marketing strategy, though I guess you could sum it up as: "Don't panic." The stuff on Latin American players transitioning to American life is interesting. As for the one on the travails of trying to get new stadiums built and the underhanded bullshit owners have to pull to get it done, it's not timely enough to be worth a whole lot (one of the deals they mention, the replacement for the Trop, has already fallen through) and everyone knows that taxpayers end up bearing much of the burden, while the owners rake in the cash from retail leases (like, the guys who pay them for the privilege of selling hot dogs at $5.00 a pop.)
Overall, the folks at BP think the Giants are going to improve markedly; the Rays will remain strong, though perhaps not as strong as the thrice-accursed Red Sox. The Yankees are slowly tanking, and even with their expensive free agents, will probably continue the downward trend, now that their offense is past old and getting into ancient. The worst teams are likely to be the Astros and (surprise, surprise) the Pirates. Could be the Cubs' year to lose.
As a rabid Rays fan, I was mildly amused last year when Nate Silver and the folks at BP predicted around 88 wins for my boys, and then shocked when they were nearly exactly right. Two years ago they predicted that this Ryan Braun fella was going to be huge; he was, and he is.
It's relatively easy, though, to point out that a rookie who everyone knows is good is good. It's not easy but not impossible to point out that a team like the Rays has finally picked up some unusually good middle relief in Grant Balfour and a serviceable former star in Troy Percival. Harder is picking this year's Josh Hamilton, the guy who comes out of nowhere to hit like 30,000 home runs. BP's attitude is, "Well, there're always outliers," and they do a decent job using their attrition/breakout percentages of telling you who those are more or less likely to be.
The one-liners come on fast and thick this year. (My favorite is the entry for Alberto Bastardo... the jokes almost write themselves. Coco Crisp's entry is funny, too. I didn't know his real name.) The articles are better than usual. I didn't entirely understand the point of the article on MLB's marketing strategy, though I guess you could sum it up as: "Don't panic." The stuff on Latin American players transitioning to American life is interesting. As for the one on the travails of trying to get new stadiums built and the underhanded bullshit owners have to pull to get it done, it's not timely enough to be worth a whole lot (one of the deals they mention, the replacement for the Trop, has already fallen through) and everyone knows that taxpayers end up bearing much of the burden, while the owners rake in the cash from retail leases (like, the guys who pay them for the privilege of selling hot dogs at $5.00 a pop.)
Overall, the folks at BP think the Giants are going to improve markedly; the Rays will remain strong, though perhaps not as strong as the thrice-accursed Red Sox. The Yankees are slowly tanking, and even with their expensive free agents, will probably continue the downward trend, now that their offense is past old and getting into ancient. The worst teams are likely to be the Astros and (surprise, surprise) the Pirates. Could be the Cubs' year to lose.
March 3, 2009
There's not really a lot to review, here. Frankly, reading this book requires a degree of obsessiveness about baseball that not many people possess, especially outside of fantasy leagues.
Fortunately, I possess that degree of obsessiveness.
So, what do you get? Essay reviews of every organization, enjoyably snarky forecasts for the players you're likely to see this year, and a whole raft of projections and player comparisons (because who DOESN'T want to know that their favorite player is directly comparable to some dude named Dick Groat?).
It's baseball. It's fun. It's even an early sign of spring. What more do you want?
Fortunately, I possess that degree of obsessiveness.
So, what do you get? Essay reviews of every organization, enjoyably snarky forecasts for the players you're likely to see this year, and a whole raft of projections and player comparisons (because who DOESN'T want to know that their favorite player is directly comparable to some dude named Dick Groat?).
It's baseball. It's fun. It's even an early sign of spring. What more do you want?
June 3, 2009
The stand-alone essays are not as interesting as in the old annual Bill James Baseball Abstract, publication of which was an extra national holiday for me in the mid-80's, but the player and team comments are informative and entertaining. As my attention span has diminished over the decades, I now find it preferable to read statistically-informed analysis of baseball than to watch actual baseball games in real time.
I read these '09 season predictions with the '09 season nearly one-third over, and with respect to the players I've been following (a few stars plus the Nationals) their projections seem to be very much on the mark.
I read these '09 season predictions with the '09 season nearly one-third over, and with respect to the players I've been following (a few stars plus the Nationals) their projections seem to be very much on the mark.
March 5, 2009
Yeah, it's the Prospectus. It's good for you if you like baseball; it makes things like spring training and the WBC more interesting because you know who you should keep an eye on. The comments for the players tend to be quite pithy. Took me too long to read it this year, but hey, needs must and that's no fault of the book.
Definitely not recommended if you don't care a lick about baseball, but if you think you'd like to know more about the numbers behind the game and the people who play the game, it's a pretty accessible text (while still being filled with bad-ass stats).
Definitely not recommended if you don't care a lick about baseball, but if you think you'd like to know more about the numbers behind the game and the people who play the game, it's a pretty accessible text (while still being filled with bad-ass stats).
February 15, 2009
The best reference out there for descriptions/projections of MLB team and player performance. I take it with me down to spring training, and carry it in my satchel throughout the season.
With it and the similarly annual Bill James Guide, you can review the careers and projected trajectories of every player who played in the league last season or is likely to this season.
With it and the similarly annual Bill James Guide, you can review the careers and projected trajectories of every player who played in the league last season or is likely to this season.
March 30, 2009
Yes...I read this cover to cover. It isn't because Nate Silver knew the Rays were good this time last year (or that Barack would win NC). The book is ha ha funny if you dig sport. I'm not sure which BP snark was my favorite but I'm not ashamed to admit that I probably don't enjoy reading anything more than Baseball Prospectus.
March 16, 2009
I'll probably be carrying this around with me from room to room for the next half a year.
Update: Obviously I'm not "done", but I've read the articles and played with it enough. The only thing of note to long-time BP fans is the change in WARP.
That's officially the nerdiest thing I've ever written.
Update: Obviously I'm not "done", but I've read the articles and played with it enough. The only thing of note to long-time BP fans is the change in WARP.
That's officially the nerdiest thing I've ever written.
March 9, 2009
I've bought every Prospectus since 06, and this was/is my favorite for two reasons. 1)The lads have matured a bit, and the mean-spirited player blurbs are fewer this year than in the past, and 2)they got it out in February, before my fantasy draft.
May 1, 2009
Not as good as previous years. Player descriptions are falling into repetitive patterns and the horn-tooting on Pecota's successes and forgetting about the failures is getting kind of annoying and I agree with these guys, for the most part.
August 31, 2014
It's less snarky than last year's and there are less essays than usual. Whatever, it's a BP annual; you're reading it for the projections, right? Right?
Read
March 6, 2012Baseball, math, and the wit of Nathan Silver. Golden.
April 9, 2009
The usual great contribution.
August 2, 2009
An interesting statistical approach to baseball, this is a book to browse and not one to read cover-to-cover.
Read
June 18, 2009Yep, I'm a baseball junkie what can I say.
If you see beauty in the numbers, this is the annual tome for you.
If you see beauty in the numbers, this is the annual tome for you.
January 26, 2012
Very good, none better. Extremely useful for playin OOTP>
Displaying 1 - 16 of 16 reviews