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The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for the Next Great NFL Quarterback
Brian Billick, former NFL coach and current analyst for the NFL network, takes on the 2018 draft class of quarterbacks and follows them for two years in an attempt to identify the tangibles and intangibles that go into making a franchise QB.
There are elite athletes in every sport -- people who possess tangible and intangible qualities that allow them to overcome daunting odds, spot opportunity in the midst of adversity, and turn defeat into victory. No position embodies this dynamic more than football quarterbacks, and nothing is a greater test of performance than the NFL.
The tangibles -- metrics, stats, ratings, bowl games, championships -- are critical to evaluation. But they're not enough. Every year, highly-rated college quarterbacks are analyzed, critiqued, hyped up and/or doubted, and those who manage to survive the scrutiny are drafted early. Some of those early picks make it to the top, some end up journeymen, and some just wash out. Why? What separates the elites from the pack? What are the intangibles? Why does a player who can throw a football through a small target 50 yards away fall short in the NFL while another with similar, or even lesser measurable stats, surpasses the others? What defines leadership? Why is drafting a successful, starting NFL quarterback at best a 50-50 proposition?
In The Q Factor, former NFL coach Brian Billick takes the highly promising 2018 NFL Draft class -- the most touted class since 2004 (Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers) and 1983 (Elway, Kelly, Marino) -- and measures the top five quarterback picks to gauge how and why they succeed where others fall short. They are all first-rounders, all with sterling college credentials, all talented athletes, all taken by teams betting their futures. One or maybe two could go on to greatness. But which ones, and why? Could the prediction process be better? Are the "experts" looking at the wrong factors? How do we find the best of the best?
That's what The Q Factor explores . . . and finally explains.
There are elite athletes in every sport -- people who possess tangible and intangible qualities that allow them to overcome daunting odds, spot opportunity in the midst of adversity, and turn defeat into victory. No position embodies this dynamic more than football quarterbacks, and nothing is a greater test of performance than the NFL.
The tangibles -- metrics, stats, ratings, bowl games, championships -- are critical to evaluation. But they're not enough. Every year, highly-rated college quarterbacks are analyzed, critiqued, hyped up and/or doubted, and those who manage to survive the scrutiny are drafted early. Some of those early picks make it to the top, some end up journeymen, and some just wash out. Why? What separates the elites from the pack? What are the intangibles? Why does a player who can throw a football through a small target 50 yards away fall short in the NFL while another with similar, or even lesser measurable stats, surpasses the others? What defines leadership? Why is drafting a successful, starting NFL quarterback at best a 50-50 proposition?
In The Q Factor, former NFL coach Brian Billick takes the highly promising 2018 NFL Draft class -- the most touted class since 2004 (Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers) and 1983 (Elway, Kelly, Marino) -- and measures the top five quarterback picks to gauge how and why they succeed where others fall short. They are all first-rounders, all with sterling college credentials, all talented athletes, all taken by teams betting their futures. One or maybe two could go on to greatness. But which ones, and why? Could the prediction process be better? Are the "experts" looking at the wrong factors? How do we find the best of the best?
That's what The Q Factor explores . . . and finally explains.
- GenresSportsNonfictionFootball
272 pages, Hardcover
Published September 29, 2020
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Displaying 1 - 11 of 11 reviews
January 10, 2021
The position of quarterback has always been the most important in professional football, but has become even more so in today’s game with the increase of scoring and with a quarterback’s mobility becoming more important in evaluation. Former NFL head coach Brian Billick, considered to be one of the more knowledgeable coaches for offense, provides an in-depth look at how college quarterbacks have been evaluated and offers his take on what works, what doesn’t and what should be measured or considered when a team wants to draft a quarterback.
The book stars by focusing on the 2018 draft in which five quarterbacks were selected in the first round: Baker Mayfield by the Cleveland Browns, San Darnold by the New York Jets, Josh Allen by the Buffalo Bills, Josh Rosen by the Arizona Cardinals and Lamar Jackson by the Baltimore Ravens. Billick offers both the good and the bad in his description of reports from teams on each one of these quarterbacks and follows them throughout the book through the 2019 season. As is the case with any other group of young quarterbacks taken in a single year, there were those who became stars (Jackson), those who are believed to not be quite there but are improving with some warning signs (Allen, Mayfield), those for whom there are still many question marks after two years (Darnold) and some who just were not good enough to hold a job (Rosen). It should be noted that any and all of these statuses may change soon as this was determined before the 2020 season commenced in which both Allen and Mayfield took steps forward.
This start was a tough read unless one is a football junkie with advanced knowledge of how to read scouting reports, playbooks and other such material. However, once one gets past this chapter, the book is filled with terrific observations that go just beyond what a scout will observe or loads of advanced statistics that read alone will not only seem complicated, but will not give a true picture of how a quarterback will perform.
Billick’s belief that data alone, especially one particular statistic such as pass completion rate, will not sufficiently determine the ultimate success or failure of a quarterback is a key part of his observation and is one that he repeats frequently in the book. Another frequently mentioned word is “extrapolation.” Observing a young college quarterback for just one or two seasons, no matter what a scout or coach is looking at, cannot accurately predict how he will do in that area over a long period of time without proper extrapolation.
When Billick talks about extrapolation and his wish that it could be used, as well as more quantifiable data on characteristics a good quarterback needs such as leadership, intelligence (his opinion on the current use of the Wonderlic test is quite pointed to say the least) and the ability to make quick decisions, it makes for great reading as he explains in detail why these traits are important. He does so in a careful manner so that more casual fans of the game will be able to understand the concept, but yet he also states this in a way that football nerds will enjoy as well. Billick’s experience as a long-time football coach and analyst comes through in this and other passage when he explains why he believes that there is more needed in order to fully analyze a quarterback properly.
Even with all this, another key point he makes is that in the end, this is still basically an endeavor that has a 50/50 split in determining which ones will pan out as expected and which ones will become a bust. A good example of this is the classic comparison of Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning in the 1998 NFL draft. However, what Billick did instead of that one was to take the scouting consensus on Leaf, who was considered a can’t-miss project, and compare him to a different college quarterback who didn’t measure up to Leaf in every single category and was taken in a later round. That quarterback – Drew Brees. That is a fresh take on a common topic that many football fans hear about regularly and it is also a reason, among others, why this book comes recommended for any fan of NFL football.
I wish to thank Twelve Books for providing a copy of the book via NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.
https://sportsbookguy.blogspot.com/20...
The book stars by focusing on the 2018 draft in which five quarterbacks were selected in the first round: Baker Mayfield by the Cleveland Browns, San Darnold by the New York Jets, Josh Allen by the Buffalo Bills, Josh Rosen by the Arizona Cardinals and Lamar Jackson by the Baltimore Ravens. Billick offers both the good and the bad in his description of reports from teams on each one of these quarterbacks and follows them throughout the book through the 2019 season. As is the case with any other group of young quarterbacks taken in a single year, there were those who became stars (Jackson), those who are believed to not be quite there but are improving with some warning signs (Allen, Mayfield), those for whom there are still many question marks after two years (Darnold) and some who just were not good enough to hold a job (Rosen). It should be noted that any and all of these statuses may change soon as this was determined before the 2020 season commenced in which both Allen and Mayfield took steps forward.
This start was a tough read unless one is a football junkie with advanced knowledge of how to read scouting reports, playbooks and other such material. However, once one gets past this chapter, the book is filled with terrific observations that go just beyond what a scout will observe or loads of advanced statistics that read alone will not only seem complicated, but will not give a true picture of how a quarterback will perform.
Billick’s belief that data alone, especially one particular statistic such as pass completion rate, will not sufficiently determine the ultimate success or failure of a quarterback is a key part of his observation and is one that he repeats frequently in the book. Another frequently mentioned word is “extrapolation.” Observing a young college quarterback for just one or two seasons, no matter what a scout or coach is looking at, cannot accurately predict how he will do in that area over a long period of time without proper extrapolation.
When Billick talks about extrapolation and his wish that it could be used, as well as more quantifiable data on characteristics a good quarterback needs such as leadership, intelligence (his opinion on the current use of the Wonderlic test is quite pointed to say the least) and the ability to make quick decisions, it makes for great reading as he explains in detail why these traits are important. He does so in a careful manner so that more casual fans of the game will be able to understand the concept, but yet he also states this in a way that football nerds will enjoy as well. Billick’s experience as a long-time football coach and analyst comes through in this and other passage when he explains why he believes that there is more needed in order to fully analyze a quarterback properly.
Even with all this, another key point he makes is that in the end, this is still basically an endeavor that has a 50/50 split in determining which ones will pan out as expected and which ones will become a bust. A good example of this is the classic comparison of Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning in the 1998 NFL draft. However, what Billick did instead of that one was to take the scouting consensus on Leaf, who was considered a can’t-miss project, and compare him to a different college quarterback who didn’t measure up to Leaf in every single category and was taken in a later round. That quarterback – Drew Brees. That is a fresh take on a common topic that many football fans hear about regularly and it is also a reason, among others, why this book comes recommended for any fan of NFL football.
I wish to thank Twelve Books for providing a copy of the book via NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.
https://sportsbookguy.blogspot.com/20...
September 21, 2020
I have received this title via NetGalley and publishers in exchange for an honest review
I wasn't sure how much I was going to enjoy this book after the introduction. The introduction/first part was probably the slowest text I have ever read. However, once I got through that part, I flew through the book. Despite the slowness of the intro, I still enjoyed it and found it interesting. The rest of the book was so fascinating and I learned so much.
I wasn't sure how much I was going to enjoy this book after the introduction. The introduction/first part was probably the slowest text I have ever read. However, once I got through that part, I flew through the book. Despite the slowness of the intro, I still enjoyed it and found it interesting. The rest of the book was so fascinating and I learned so much.
October 7, 2020
https://www.themaineedge.com/sports/f...
Quarterback is king in the NFL.
Strong quarterback play has always been an important part of success on the football field. But in today’s pass-prominent game, a high level of performance from the QB has become even more vital. One could make the argument – and plenty do – that the quarterback is the most important single player in professional team sports. You need a good one, if not a great one.
But how do you find one?
Brian Billick is a former NFL head coach with a Super Bowl ring and a current gig as an analyst for the NFL Network – certainly someone with some insight into the importance of having a great QB and what goes into developing such greatness. His new book – co-authored with James Dale – is “The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for the Next Great NFL Quarterback,” an in-depth exploration of what goes into finding and developing QB excellence.
Using the QB-heavy draft of 2018 as a jumping-off point – five passers were selected in the first round – Billick delves into the specifics of quarterback greatness and some of the tools evaluators can use to determine if the guy they see now can become what they need him to be later. With plenty of attention to detail and some great macro and micro perspectives, Billick deconstructs the path to greatness and how a little improvement in determining that path can go a long way.
There have been a handful of legendary quarterback drafts over the past 40 years. Classes like 1983 (that featured all-timers like John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly) or the more recent 2004 (offering likely Hall of Famers like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers – the latter two still active) have provided a massive influx of talent to the position.
It’s early, obviously, but there are plenty of folks looking to add 2018 to that list. Five passers – Baker Mayfield (Cleveland); Sam Darnold (NY Jets); Josh Allen (Buffalo); Josh Rosen (Arizona); and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore) – were selected in the first round, the highest number since that legendary 1983 draft.
What Billick does in “The Q Factor” is dig into the process, offering a combination of in-the-moment analysis and hindsight to explore the relative successes and failures of these five players, from their movement through the draft process through their first couple of years in the league. Unsurprisingly – at least to anyone who has ever paid attention to the NFL – these five guys, despite sharing a first-round pedigree, take VERY different paths.
He offers up an extrapolation of the analysis that goes into choosing a quarterback. He’s unafraid of the data – after all, there’s a lot that the numbers can tell you about a young prospect – but he also places a good deal of emphasis on other, more instinctive approaches. Billick breaks down that marriage, sharing his thoughts on how to balance the two approaches in a way that maximizes potential success.
Because that’s the thing: In the end, it’s essentially a coin flip. For real – the success rate with regard to selecting a quarterback in the first round is about 50/50. And we’re not talking about a superstar – success here is defined as a guy who becomes a consistent starter in the league. Considering the value of a QB in today’s NFL, finding a way to push those odds into your favor by even a few percentage points would be a massive advantage.
Billick shares his takes on each of these passers from the time of the draft process, and to his credit, he’s honest about them – even where he turned out to be wrong. He digs into the various factors that go into making a great QB, whether they be physical aspects like arm strength and foot speed or more intangible factors like leadership and maturity. He explores how too much credence is given to some numbers and not enough to others, as well as how superb physical tools can cause general managers to overlook red flags.
(I won’t spoil his initial takes here, but here’s an unsurprising tidbit: Billick somehow didn’t anticipate that Lamar Jackson would be league MVP in his second season. Weird, right?)
From there, he walks us through the subsequent NFL seasons of each player, showing us how attitudes and understandings grow as we can watch a quarterback actually take to an NFL field and show us what he can do. It’s an interesting peek at how the feelings of evaluators evolve as players put forward their strengths and weaknesses, rendered all the more interesting by the wild journeys undertaken by these specific QBs.
“The Q Factor” is an insider’s look at the process of finding a franchise quarterback, perhaps the most important job of a team executive in today’s NFL. An elite QB can utterly change an organization’s trajectory, turning it from an also-ran to a Super Bowl champion. And while there will always be overlooked gems (Tom Brady, anyone?), the truth is that it will always make sense to look at the cream that rises to the top. It’s up to Billick and his ilk to determine if that cream is sweet or soon to curdle.
Football fans – particularly those interested in the inner workings of the talent evaluation and development process – will likely find this book fascinating. Whether your team already has its franchise passer or is still looking for the next big thing, you’ll find plenty to enjoy in “The Q Factor.”
Quarterback is king in the NFL.
Strong quarterback play has always been an important part of success on the football field. But in today’s pass-prominent game, a high level of performance from the QB has become even more vital. One could make the argument – and plenty do – that the quarterback is the most important single player in professional team sports. You need a good one, if not a great one.
But how do you find one?
Brian Billick is a former NFL head coach with a Super Bowl ring and a current gig as an analyst for the NFL Network – certainly someone with some insight into the importance of having a great QB and what goes into developing such greatness. His new book – co-authored with James Dale – is “The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for the Next Great NFL Quarterback,” an in-depth exploration of what goes into finding and developing QB excellence.
Using the QB-heavy draft of 2018 as a jumping-off point – five passers were selected in the first round – Billick delves into the specifics of quarterback greatness and some of the tools evaluators can use to determine if the guy they see now can become what they need him to be later. With plenty of attention to detail and some great macro and micro perspectives, Billick deconstructs the path to greatness and how a little improvement in determining that path can go a long way.
There have been a handful of legendary quarterback drafts over the past 40 years. Classes like 1983 (that featured all-timers like John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly) or the more recent 2004 (offering likely Hall of Famers like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers – the latter two still active) have provided a massive influx of talent to the position.
It’s early, obviously, but there are plenty of folks looking to add 2018 to that list. Five passers – Baker Mayfield (Cleveland); Sam Darnold (NY Jets); Josh Allen (Buffalo); Josh Rosen (Arizona); and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore) – were selected in the first round, the highest number since that legendary 1983 draft.
What Billick does in “The Q Factor” is dig into the process, offering a combination of in-the-moment analysis and hindsight to explore the relative successes and failures of these five players, from their movement through the draft process through their first couple of years in the league. Unsurprisingly – at least to anyone who has ever paid attention to the NFL – these five guys, despite sharing a first-round pedigree, take VERY different paths.
He offers up an extrapolation of the analysis that goes into choosing a quarterback. He’s unafraid of the data – after all, there’s a lot that the numbers can tell you about a young prospect – but he also places a good deal of emphasis on other, more instinctive approaches. Billick breaks down that marriage, sharing his thoughts on how to balance the two approaches in a way that maximizes potential success.
Because that’s the thing: In the end, it’s essentially a coin flip. For real – the success rate with regard to selecting a quarterback in the first round is about 50/50. And we’re not talking about a superstar – success here is defined as a guy who becomes a consistent starter in the league. Considering the value of a QB in today’s NFL, finding a way to push those odds into your favor by even a few percentage points would be a massive advantage.
Billick shares his takes on each of these passers from the time of the draft process, and to his credit, he’s honest about them – even where he turned out to be wrong. He digs into the various factors that go into making a great QB, whether they be physical aspects like arm strength and foot speed or more intangible factors like leadership and maturity. He explores how too much credence is given to some numbers and not enough to others, as well as how superb physical tools can cause general managers to overlook red flags.
(I won’t spoil his initial takes here, but here’s an unsurprising tidbit: Billick somehow didn’t anticipate that Lamar Jackson would be league MVP in his second season. Weird, right?)
From there, he walks us through the subsequent NFL seasons of each player, showing us how attitudes and understandings grow as we can watch a quarterback actually take to an NFL field and show us what he can do. It’s an interesting peek at how the feelings of evaluators evolve as players put forward their strengths and weaknesses, rendered all the more interesting by the wild journeys undertaken by these specific QBs.
“The Q Factor” is an insider’s look at the process of finding a franchise quarterback, perhaps the most important job of a team executive in today’s NFL. An elite QB can utterly change an organization’s trajectory, turning it from an also-ran to a Super Bowl champion. And while there will always be overlooked gems (Tom Brady, anyone?), the truth is that it will always make sense to look at the cream that rises to the top. It’s up to Billick and his ilk to determine if that cream is sweet or soon to curdle.
Football fans – particularly those interested in the inner workings of the talent evaluation and development process – will likely find this book fascinating. Whether your team already has its franchise passer or is still looking for the next big thing, you’ll find plenty to enjoy in “The Q Factor.”
January 19, 2021
This didn't really feel like Billick was trying too hard. It's a book about quarterbacks, and how we analyze them - and can we do a better job analyzing/forecasting them. And.... it's all fairly general and it doesn't feel like Billick has much to add to the mix. His main point is that we should extrapolate more & look at all info in context. Yeah, OK.
Mostly, it's a book about the QBs drafted in the first round in the 2018 draft. He has a long chapter about the draft and their pre-draft evaluations, another long chapter on their rookie season, and a third long chapter on their sophomore seasons. That's half the book, and it's just general overviews of the QBs. The other half of the book just feels like generalities on quarterbacks.
The entire book feels like padding. It's padding without a core to be worthy of padding. It's easy to read, but that doesn't mean it's worth reading. You'll get a sense of the careers of the 2018 QBs in it, but that's about it.
Mostly, it's a book about the QBs drafted in the first round in the 2018 draft. He has a long chapter about the draft and their pre-draft evaluations, another long chapter on their rookie season, and a third long chapter on their sophomore seasons. That's half the book, and it's just general overviews of the QBs. The other half of the book just feels like generalities on quarterbacks.
The entire book feels like padding. It's padding without a core to be worthy of padding. It's easy to read, but that doesn't mean it's worth reading. You'll get a sense of the careers of the 2018 QBs in it, but that's about it.
September 30, 2022
Certain parts of the book felt repetitive. This book does a lot of call backs to moments in football history which may not be a good thing for new football fans. I feel like the author should’ve highlighted a select few anecdotes and really hammered them in and made the point instead of the shotgun approach that may easily lose the attention of new readers and overwhelm them.
But after reading the book I’m not sure or if even the author can definitely say what really makes a quarterback prospect a bust or not. This just goes to show how difficult the process is and hopefully with some of the insights provided by Brian Billick can increase your chances by even 1-5% of finding that franchise quarterback.
3.5/5
But after reading the book I’m not sure or if even the author can definitely say what really makes a quarterback prospect a bust or not. This just goes to show how difficult the process is and hopefully with some of the insights provided by Brian Billick can increase your chances by even 1-5% of finding that franchise quarterback.
3.5/5
November 9, 2021
This book, even for an NFL book, is not very good.
It vacillates between gushing (re:Lamar Jackson) and half-baked analysis and generalizations that most of us understood anyway. Most analytics are not a good predictor of QB success. Both traditional scouting and sabermetrics are still unreliable. Yes indeed, sir.
That's not enough for an entire book.
Get the guys who wrote Freakanomics to go through the same analysis and data, and they will write a much better book - both more engaging and informative.
It vacillates between gushing (re:Lamar Jackson) and half-baked analysis and generalizations that most of us understood anyway. Most analytics are not a good predictor of QB success. Both traditional scouting and sabermetrics are still unreliable. Yes indeed, sir.
That's not enough for an entire book.
Get the guys who wrote Freakanomics to go through the same analysis and data, and they will write a much better book - both more engaging and informative.
August 29, 2021
Very insightful
Really well written and informative about what should go into building a team and on the contrary, what actually happens. Super interesting to compare 2020 stats and see how the players did. If you like football, you will enjoy
Really well written and informative about what should go into building a team and on the contrary, what actually happens. Super interesting to compare 2020 stats and see how the players did. If you like football, you will enjoy
February 23, 2025
An inside look at quarterbacking and the 2018 QB draft class. Some interesting theories and thoughts on what it takes to find a great QB but also talks about how things things translate into the workplace.
November 13, 2025
super interesting read on how to find a QB. Cool stuff from a former coach. The 2018 draft class was the perfect one to study. Recommend to anybody who loves the position of QB and has an interest in the statistics and research involved in spotting a diamond Qb in the rough
August 29, 2023
Very disappointed with this coming from Brian Billick. The analysis and talk was very surface level without many concrete findings or conclusions. A decent read for someone without knowledge on the 2018 QB class but otherwise it’ll probably be a waste of time
January 29, 2022
You will learn to extrapolate, extrapolate, extrapolate.
Displaying 1 - 11 of 11 reviews