307: In 1971, dozens of astronomers and astrophysicists convened in a conference room at the Byurakan Astrophysical Observatory in Armenia for the first joint American and Soviet conference on communicating with extraterrestrial intelligence.
311: In this sense, the Byurakan conference was as much about extraterrestrials as it was about easing tensions between two global superpowers.
338: Among the various proposals for interstellar messages raised at Byurakan, one especially stands out. Marvin Minsky, one of the progenitors of the field of artificial intelligence, suggested it would be best to send a cat.
549: Shortly after the conclusion of Project Ozma, the National Academy of Sciences requested that Drake meet with other scientists to determine the future of SETI—or, for that matter, whether SETI should have a future at all. The three-day meeting was scheduled to begin November 1, 1961, at Green Bank, and a few days ahead of the conference Drake pieced together an agenda that would address “all elements needed to predict the difficulty of detecting extraterrestrial life.” The list he came up with included the average rate of star formation, the percentage of stars hosting planets, the average number of habitable planets per star, the percentage of planets where life emerges, the percentage of planets with life where intelligence evolves, the percentage of intelligent societies capable of interstellar communication, and the number of years a civilization is sending out detectable signals (Drake and Sobel 1992). Drake realized that multiplying the value of these items together resulted in a rough estimate of the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way—and with this realization, the famous Drake equation was born.
586: As Chomsky and others have argued elsewhere, human language can be used for communication, but this is apparently not its primary purpose. Natural languages are mostly used internally to order thoughts and only relatively infrequently to convey these thoughts to others.
588: Therefore Chomsky refers to natural languages as internal languages, or I-languages, which must be distinguished from language as the computational system consisting of a small set of discrete rules—the universal grammar—discussed in the previous chapter. There is a nearly endless variety of communication systems, ranging from manner of dress and avian plumage to body “language” and the chemical secretions of plants. Although natural languages can fulfill these communicative functions, they cannot be reduced to them.
604: By reducing language to mere communication, Lilly missed a crucial insight: communication systems only convey information, whereas language is also able to convey thought.
797: The significance of this division was not lost on Minsky. “I claim that most information that people have that is important is not facts, but processes,” Minsky said at the Byurakan conference.
815: Indeed, there is good reason to presume that most extraterrestrials in the universe are “postbiological” artificial intelligences (Bainbridge 2013; Dick 2006; Sandberg, Armstrong, and Cirkovic 2017).
1036: The conundrum was eloquently described by Albert Einstein (1922), who wondered “How is it possible that mathematics, a product of human thought that is independent of existence, fits so excellently the objects of physical reality?”
1192: It would be naïve, of course, to suggest that evolution is totally determined by the laws of physics given the significant and obvious role that chance plays in the trajectory of evolution. For example, research suggests that the probability of an asteroid impact resulting in global cooling, mass extinction, and the subsequent appearance of mammals was “quite low” 66 million years ago. It was sheer cosmic bad luck that the asteroid impacted the relatively small portion of the Earth’s surface that was rich in the hydrocarbons and sulfur that ultimately choked the Earth with stratospheric soot and sulfate aerosols. In this case, the site of the asteroid impact changed the history of life on Earth in a way that could never be predicted by deterministic evolutionary laws (Kaiho and Oshima 2017).
1350: On May 24, 1999, the first Cosmic Call message was broadcast from Evpatoria to a star in the Cygnus constellation approximately 70 light years from Earth. The message was transmitted at 100 bits per second (except for the public portion, which was transmitted at 2,000 bits per second) on the 5.01 GHz (6 cm) band. (This isn’t a “magic” frequency but was the frequency at which the radio telescope was equipped to broadcast.) The transmission used frequency-shift keying to modulate the radio signal, which shifted the transmission frequency by 24 kHz to encode the message as a ternary stream. The message itself was encoded in binary, such that 0 was represented at 5,010,000 kHz, 1 represented at 5,010,048 kHz, and a five-second pause between each of the messages was represented at 5,010,024 kHz.
1494: Sagan and Drake’s choice of the hydrogen atom was deliberate. As the most abundant element in the universe, the spectral line of neutral hydrogen was considered at the time to be the most promising frequency to search for an extraterrestrial message. By calling attention to this radio frequency, Sagan and Drake were effectively giving an extraterrestrial recipient Earth’s phone number. If they were to call on that frequency, someone would probably be listening. Yet a phone number doesn’t do much good if you don’t know the area code, and the same goes for interstellar communication. To this end, the Pioneer plaques include two maps to assist an extraterrestrial in locating Earth. One of the maps depicts the nine planets of our solar system (Pluto was still dignified with planetary status in 1972) and the Sun. An arrow drawn from the third planet and looping around the fifth depicts the Pioneer’s trajectory from Earth around Jupiter. The relative distance between the planets is labeled in binary. The second map consists of fifteen lines all emanating from a common origin. Fourteen of these lines consist of a long binary number that corresponds to a ten-digit number in decimal notation. These lines correspond to the distance of the Sun from fourteen different pulsars; the fifteenth line corresponds to the distance of the Sun from the center of the galaxy. Yet what is an extraterrestrial to make of the binary numbers? Once again, it appears that these numbers could represent either a time interval or a length.
1569: Despite their best intentions, the Voyager record and Pioneer plaques are each a sort of cosmic message in a bottle that is unlikely to ever wash up on alien shores. Even if the craft were intercepted, the deep anthropocentrism of each message makes it unlikely that their contents would be correctly deciphered.
1590: Since most astrophysical noise is smeared across a very wide band of frequencies, the conventional wisdom is that a broadcast on a single, narrow carrier frequency is more likely to stand out as intelligible signal to any extraterrestrials that may be listening (Shostak 1995). Modern SETI programs can scan millions of narrow channels (e.g., around 1 Hz) in real time and up to billions of channels offline. Monitoring narrowband channels reduces the background noise because the channel represents only a small portion of the broadband noise, while at the same time “cranking up the volume” of any signal intentionally broadcast on that frequency. There is good reason to suspect that any extraterrestrial radio astronomers would adopt similar narrowband search strategies.
1613: The range of frequencies spanning from 1.420 GHz and 1.720 GHz is known as “the water hole,” given that the combination of a hydrogen atom and a hydroxyl molecule produces water.
1618: Although 1,420 MHz was the chosen frequency for Project Ozma and many other SETI observations thereafter, it may not be as ideal for communication as was once presumed. Frequencies between 1 and 3 GHz (which includes the water hole) have since been shown to be particularly susceptible to interstellar electron clouds that cause a signal’s bandwidth to increase. In fact, the most detectable signal that uses the least amount of power was calculated to be at around 70 GHz (Drake and Sobel 1992), which is still within the universe’s “quiet zone,” but well outside Earth’s microwave window. This implies that our atmosphere may be blocking any incoming extraterrestrial signals on this optimal frequency, while also precluding optimized broadcasts.
1623: Even if we established a METI outpost on the moon for broadcasting and receiving, the detectability of our signal would now be further restrained by the assumption that our extraterrestrial targets have also overcome their atmospheric opacity. Fortunately, there are other reasonable magic frequencies that still allow for broadcasts from terra firma (for a thorough overview of the rationale behind many leading frequency candidates, see Blair and Zadnik 1993 and Townes 1957, 1983). A few notable examples include harmonics of the hydrogen line, at 2.840 GHz; the product of the hydrogen line and pi, justified on the grounds that the irrationality of pi means that this frequency couldn’t be produced naturally as a harmonic and would thus distinguish the signal as artificial (Zaitsev 2011); 8.67 GHz, which is the spin-flip transition of 3He+ ion, chosen because it has the next simplest transition after atomic hydrogen (Bania and Rood 1993); and 203.385 GHz, which corresponds “to the splitting of the ground state of the lightest atom—positronium—and [coincides] with the centroid of the relic background spectrum” (Kardashev 1979).
1668: The design of an interstellar radio message thus requires a cost-benefit analysis that considers the bandwidth of the signal, the target star system, the power of the transmitter, the selected frequency, and the data rate of the transmission, as well as some assumptions about the nature of the extraterrestrial receiving technology. Taken together, these set restrictions on the size of the message that is sent. Consider, for example, a situation in which the Arecibo telescope is used to transmit a message at 1,420 MHz to an extraterrestrial civilization 100 light years distant that has a comparable receiving telescope. Best practice in radio communication suggests that the bandwidth of a signal will be between 0.1 and 10 percent of the carrier frequency (Shostak 1995), so a broadcast at 1420 MHz would use a bandwidth of about 70 MHz. If the desired signal-to-noise ratio is 1—a remarkably clear signal—then the equation for the amount of information that can be transmitted over this channel returns 70 megabits per second, or about 750 gigabytes of information each day (Shannon 1948). The feasibility of this scenario depends on the ability to achieve a signal-to-noise ratio of 1, which is a function of the power density of the transmitter. In this case, achieving this signal-to-noise ratio would require a power density of 1 kilowatt per hertz, or 70 gigawatts spread across the entire 70 MHz band. This energy requirement is considerable: it represents approximately 0.5 percent of the total energy generation capacity of Earth, which is far beyond the reach of our most powerful radio telescopes (Shostak 2009).
1798: The importance of protecting WIPP, the first dedicated subterranean nuclear waste repository in the United States, from future human intrusion wasn’t lost on its architects. In 1985, the US Environmental Protection Agency issued a directive that highlighted the need for warning markers that would prevent inadvertent human intrusion for ten thousand years—the regulatory lifetime of the repository. Considering that the oldest written records on Earth only date back about five thousand years and the meaning of several ancient scripts has been lost to history, creating a message that would be intelligible for twice that time period was a daunting challenge. In accordance with the EPA’s directive, Sandia National Laboratories convened a working group of scientists, linguists, anthropologists, and artists who were tasked with designing warning messages that would be intelligible for ten millennia. A notable feature of the thirteen-member task force was the strong representation of SETI researchers, including Woodruff T. Sullivan, Frank Drake, and Jon Lomberg, the artist who designed the original iconography for the Voyager golden records.
2010: In 2015, over two dozen scientists, academics, and industry leaders affiliated with the University of California Berkeley’s SETI program, arguably the leading search effort in the world, signed a statement calling for a moratorium on interstellar broadcasts until “a worldwide scientific, political, and humanitarian discussion” occurred. These critics of METI raised four principle arguments against transmission, which can be characterized as “shouting in a jungle,” the pseudoscience argument, the profligate transmissions argument, and “Who speaks for Earth?”
2015: Shouting in a Jungle The “shouting in a jungle” critique is inherited from Ryle. It is based on the historical observation that contact between cultures with asymmetrical levels of technological development has frequently led to the extermination of the less technologically advanced culture.
2030: Radio and television broadcasts, for example, are common all over the planet, so this results in near-isotropic radiation into space. This creates a sort of sphere of radio noise around the Earth whose radius—currently about 80 light years—is equivalent to the amount of time these broadcasts have been occurring.
2085: Is METI Scientific? Another criticism of METI is that it is a form of “unauthorized diplomacy” rather than a hard science (Michaud 2005; Gertz 2016).
2086: This critique depends on how science is defined, however, which is a contentious topic among philosophers. One of the most widely accepted delineations between science and pseudoscience was advanced by the philosopher Karl Popper (1959), who defined a scientific hypothesis or theory as one that is falsifiable. As far as METI is concerned, the accusation that interstellar messaging constitutes a pseudoscience has more to do with the transmission of messages than their design. For example, METI practitioners could advance the hypothesis that an extraterrestrial exists in a given star system and send a message to test this hypothesis. However, the lack of a reply to the message does not confirm or refute the existence of an extraterrestrial intelligence in that solar system. Perhaps the message was missed by the extraterrestrial, or they simply decided not to respond. Of course, a similar claim to pseudoscience could be lodged against SETI. In both cases, there are never refutations of the hypothesis, only confir