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Clear and Present Safety: The World Has Never Been Better and Why That Matters to Americans

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An eye-opening look at the history of national security fear-mongering in America and how it distracts citizens from the issues that really matter
 
What most frightens the average American? Terrorism. North Korea. Iran. But what if none of these are probable or consequential threats to America? What if the world today is safer, freer, wealthier, healthier, and better educated than ever before? What if the real dangers to Americans are noncommunicable diseases, gun violence, drug overdoses—even hospital infections? In this compelling look at what they call the “Threat‑Industrial Complex,” Michael A. Cohen and Micah Zenko explain why politicians, policy analysts, academics, and journalists are misleading Americans about foreign threats and ignoring more serious national security challenges at home. Cohen and Zenko argue that we should ignore Washington’s threat‑mongering and focus instead on furthering extraordinary global advances in human development and economic and political cooperation. At home, we should focus on that which actually harms us and undermines our quality of life: substandard schools and healthcare, inadequate infrastructure, gun violence, income inequality, and political paralysis.

272 pages, Hardcover

First published March 26, 2019

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Michael A. Cohen

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Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
Profile Image for Steve.
1,211 reviews89 followers
November 16, 2019
I really didn’t care for this book. Almost didn’t finish it, but it’s very short so what the hell, I guess. I’m not sure I could explain my negative reaction especially because I more or less support the authors’ main points. The book is crammed with figures and footnotes, but I always felt they were playing loosely with statistics. One specific bit that bugged me, early on, was a statement on p50 “[Non-communicable diseases] alter the genes passed on to future generations...”. I believe this is flat out incorrect. The statement wasn’t footnoted, but I suspect they’re talking about epigenetics, not genes. A similar statement on page 54 about drug addiction altering “genes” was footnoted, and the title of the source in fact mentioned epigenetics. That’s just sloppy, I believe.

Anyway, as I mentioned, I think I agree with most of the main points of the book, but I really didn’t like their writing style. A few attempts at criticizing Democrats and praising Republicans here and there, but overall very partisan. And a total lack of any sense of humility or empathy for their opponents.

Steve Pinker gave the book a very nice blurb but I honestly wonder if he really read it — his own recent books cover some of the same ground but are far better.
Profile Image for Chad Manske.
1,451 reviews57 followers
March 5, 2021
“The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.” President Franklin Roosevelt’s Great Depression-era slogan perfectly describes the core idea in a trite phrase of co-authors Michael A. Cohen and Micah Zenko’s March 2019 book, “Clear and Present Safety: The World Has Never Been Better and Why That Matters to Americans.” Based on a March/April 2012 Foreign Affairs essay that became the incubator for the book seven years later, Cohen—then a columnist with the Boston Globe, and Zenko—then a columnist with Foreign Policy, teamed together to challenge the notion of what they term the ‘threat industrial complex.’
Central to this idea is the concept of threat inflation—rhetoric continuously espoused by policy makers, the media, politicians and academics (and then parroted by others) promoting fear and pessimism—that is misleading Americans about foreign threats while ignoring and masking more serious national security challenges at home. Through somewhat shocking but now all-too-familiar public statements by the latter groups of people, Cohen and Zenko paint a very stark and depressing state of affairs for America relative to external threats to national security from early in the book. Those in national security circles can easily relate to the sound bites and arguments they make for why the sky is falling and how America’s existence as a leader in the world community is at stake. But, is there truth to those arguments? The authors by and large say no!
After the barrage of public statements used to shock readers, Cohen and Zenko methodically go about level-setting reality. A towering example of the threat inflation talk rampant in the U.S. for years has been about terrorism abroad and the extent to which, if America doesn’t act with resources (people and money) to keep the problem away from America’s shores, we will all be speaking another language and perhaps be under someone else’s rule. The reality, in fact, suggests otherwise. Fear is overblown disproportionate to the rhetoric. A similar and steady grandiloquence is expressed through the constant talk of how the U.S. will soon be at war with the Chinese. Again, we are fed a steady diet of threat inflation where fears may be somewhat mischaracterized.
In each of these instances and a host of others, Cohen and Zenko broadly describe how things at home—obesity, drinking, smoking, suicides, the opioid crisis, noncommunicable diseases, gun homicides and other harmful things--kill or hurt Americans more. And why does this matter? Because the country is spending far less disproportionately on the latter than ‘threat industrial complex’ elements.
Further, the authors strengthen their argument not only with strong data and well-researched statistics to back it, they note how, in fact, prosperous Americans are today in terms of life expectancy, vaccinations, employment, wealth, freedom, education and the like, than ever before. In the course of seven chapters in a book under 200 pages long they set about their task.
In short, they first argue how external threats are actually minor concerns for Americans on a daily basis relative to the domestic issues cited above. Second, they describe the notions of freedom, interconnectedness and general prosperity that exists at an all-time high for the general population relative to years past. Third, the authors condition readers to think about national security differently, focusing on systemic and personal threats and issues while thinking a bit less on unrealities that may never affect them at all. Fourth, as Americans we should collectively be more skeptical and hold to account those in the public sphere whose claims seem far-fetched and detached from reality. Fifth, that we should measure and think about today’s prosperity thesis relative to the broader historical context of the past—namely, against such things as the ‘missile gap,’ the ‘domino theory,’ ‘evil empire’ and other castigating descriptors that in their time, and in reality were very real national security concerns. Sixth, the authors use the case study of 9/11 to dramatize and apply the reality of their argument, and the authors propose and alternative. And lastly, the authors provide recommendations to reverse what in their view is an unbalanced perspective and approach to foreign threats and national security.
One of the linchpins of the argument is the irony that although most Americans perceive the world as being a very dangerous one than it is, is the fact that it is really safer than ever before! So, why then would all of these public people try to dupe Americans into thinking we are so bad off globally? The answer is simple according to the authors: most everyone benefits in some way—materially, through greater news coverage, satisfying constituencies, feeding the industrial and defense base—by arguing the worst case. When you marry this concept with 24-hour news cycles and the constant presence and ability to employ social media, anxiety and distress is manifest broadly, even if it has little impact on the average American.
In their concluding chapter, which in my personal view is excellent, Cohen and Zenko challenge Americans to be more critical of what the hear, read and see. They implore readers with critical thinking insights to smartly confronting the negativity and frame it within a proper context. And that although America is more prosperous, freer and healthier than at any time in its history, much more can and should be done to improve the lot of the average American versus the feeding of the threat industrial complex.
I found only one shortcoming in the argument and that was a failure to address the effect of deterrence public statements may have on potential U.S. adversaries thinking and actions. Though a nontangible and unquantifiable concept, the deterrent effects of misleading information and half-truths can and should play a role in an overall information strategy, and it would have been nice to read their thoughts on it.
This book is clearly for all national security professionals and those who have interest in this topic, as its sole focus and treatment of the subject cannot easily be found elsewhere.
Profile Image for Robert Morris.
351 reviews71 followers
July 24, 2022
There is a lot of useful information packed into this short book. The best description of it, would probably be "sane". Which puts it in marked contrast to almost everything else that's written about US national security. The authors, a couple foreign policy columnists, make their case calmly and cogently. Which is surprising, because their devastatingly made case is that almost everything we are taught to think about foreign policy in the United States is kind of crazy.

The world is not in fact "more dangerous than it's ever been". In fact, it's safer than its ever been. We don't need an ever more expensive military. That military is probably a greater threat to us than anything beyond our borders. On an interesting riff on the concept of the Military Industrial Complex, Cohen and Zenko propose the "Threat Industrial Complex", a section of the US economy that profits off of scaring people. It's a pretty hard thesis to disagree with.

In simple, even cheery language, the authors give the facts and figures on 80 years of US threat inflation. Nothing has ever been as dire as Washington, DC wanted it to be, and the costs of pursuing "safety" on DC's terms have been enormous. The history here is good, brief, and well organized. The costs of our War on Terror, many of which, not least veterans benefits, will last into the 22nd century, would have been impossible to justify in a country that wasn't constantly driven insane by illusory fears.

One of the great benefits of this book is how calm and pleasant it is. By my lights, what they are describing, the perfidy of the US foreign policy establishment, is one of the greatest crimes against humanity this world has ever seen. But people don't want to hear that. Friends and family members are always pointing out that my agitation around these matters is too alarmist and depressing. These guys are almost cheery. They lay out the failures, and consistently point out throughout their short book that it'd be just as easy to not do all the stupid things we do as it is to do them. In the end, I think it's likely that their approach will be much more successful than my agonizing. You should buy this book, then spread it around.
Profile Image for Michael.
430 reviews
August 16, 2020
Though I don't comb book reviews, every year or so I will pick up a book based solely upon the recommendation of a friend or some other trusted source. Clear and Present Safety is a book recommended to me by a Facebook friend whose politics I like, and the fact is he gave a good recommendation. The book was not what I expected it to be: a paean to American progress. At least it was not that after the first forty or fifty pages. It was, instead a forceful argument for an alternative politics that acknowledges real triumphs, seeks to build upon the lessons learned from both successes and failures, and proposes a way to avoid inflated threats and their disastrous responses.

Cohen and Zenko essentially argue that though the American military has played an important and necessary role in the Post-World War II/Post Cold War era, the overemphasis in American foreign policy upon the build up and use of military force far exceeds the threats to American hegemony and in fact disrupts our ability to address real threats both at home and abroad.

The book starts with a "state of the world" assessment and paints a picture in which America's international alliances, trade agreements and foreign aid have paved the way for a world that is safer than perhaps at any time in human history. Not only is the world less likely to end up in war, but individual regional conflict is less likely to occur. People are economically and physically better off today than they were 20, 30, 50 years ago. And this is thanks in large part to American diplomatic and monetary assistance in shaping human rights and access to food, medicine and markets.

The authors then assess American political rhetoric, media coverage and academic and social scientific research to describe a Threat Industrial Complex (TIC) reminiscent of How Propaganda Works and Manufacturing Consent. They argue, like Stanley and Chomsky argue, that American choices regarding foreign and domestic policy are shaped by the intersection of political, military, media and business interests that utilize fear to mobilize support for oversized military budgets and foreign misadventures. The TIC, the authors argue, makes its money at the expense of American citizens who are duped by a bait and switch between false international threats and real threats to our domestic well-being.

The arguments here are convincing and thoroughly well researched as the authors demonstrate through case studies and historical analysis the ways in which Americans have lost out with poorer economic outcomes, worse health outcomes and with higher mortality rates than they need to because of the political decisions leaders of the country make. As with all books of this type, the proposed solutions are less salient than the diagnosis of our ills, but the assessment of our current situation and the threats it poses are spot on. An excellent work.
Profile Image for Ietrio.
6,948 reviews24 followers
June 7, 2019
Eye opening?

Well, the idea is the States are safer than ever. And they are. At least this is what the numbers show. So Cohen points an accusing finger at the fear mongers. This is as big as to qualify as an "industrial complex". Fine.

Than you will find out that Cohen has his own agenda. And his own set of fears. And his fears are as founded as the the ones of those to whom he points the finger at. Actually he is one of the shallow minds in his critique.

Let's take the education. The education, never been worse. Today the kids can barely spell using a medieval orthography. Unlike two hundred years ago when every American also wrote perfect French and perfect Latin. Or the level of engineering. I mean the Mars colony founded by president Lincoln has been unreachable with the current state of engineering.

Or take gun violence. Never mind that a good portion of that gun violence is generated precisely by the people who will not lose their guns even if Cohen gets his wishes true. I mean, can you imagine being back during the peaceful times of the Civil War? Or the various skrimishes with the natives?

Or take income inequality. Back in the days when the US were just a British colony the natives were the rich evil guys, because the Europeans were paid the same exact sum by the king. Or even more recently, back in the 1950s when women and blacks were paid the same governmental wage, just like in Mao's China. But now, now you will be disgusted to find out that an experienced worker can get paid even 13% more than the unskilled labor.

And don't get Cohen started about political paralysis! I mean the proletarian refuses to get out and Occupy buildings to get what's rightfully theirs, like free education and the right to be healthy no matter what's your vice.
Profile Image for Nicholas George.
Author 2 books70 followers
June 26, 2019
This is a badly needed book highlighting a critical and growing problem: the continued inflation of a mostly imaginary foreign "threat" by the right in order to justify persecution of non-white people (Americans and non-Americans) and insane build-up of our military, already the most powerful in the world. A lot of it details how the world is safer than it's ever been, despite rabid fear-mongering in the media and from right-wing pundits, with record lows in inter- and intra-state conflicts, child poverty, child mortality, general mortality rates, and many other factors. The 'threat inflation' directs money toward tactics like meaningless border walls and non-stop foreign wars rather than toward the real threats right here at home: gun violence, climate change, opioid addiction, child obesity, to name a few. I feel it could make its point much more powerfully, but this book's mere existence is a reason to celebrate. I hope it doesn't get lost in the shuffle.
Profile Image for Dennis Murphy.
1,027 reviews13 followers
January 23, 2022
Clear and Present Safety: The World Has Never Been Better and Why That Matters to Americans by Michael Cohen and Micah Zenko is a political advocacy piece with a useful gimmick. The authors borrow heavily from Steven Pinker to discuss how the world is getting better and better, and the pair introduces the threat-industrial complex, which is a persuasive idea about how we catastrophize our foes to justify ever greater expenditures for defense. They are right that we ignore things at home that we shouldn't, but many of their subsequent arguments often fall flat. The overly politicized framing also means that no republican and hardly any independents will be persuaded, and that's a shame. I think the threat inflation framing was very useful, and I'll likely reference it at some point down the line. It is unfortunate, however, that the book itself was a a missed opportunity to meet the American people.

78/100
Profile Image for Chris Sosa.
Author 1 book11 followers
May 30, 2019
My only grumble with this book is the overstated section of the title that doesn't particularly match the content.

"Clear and Present Safety" is almost exclusively about issues of war and peace. The author does a fantastic job of explaining what he terms the "fear industrial complex" designed to keep Americans afraid for political gain in the face of notable successes in diplomacy leading to a time of sustained global peace when compared to historic levels of conflict.

Absolutely worth a read for anyone living in a country that launched not one but two unnecessary wars and reshaped its entire approach to security following a single preventable attack.
Profile Image for Seth.
299 reviews7 followers
August 9, 2019
Frankly, the book made me pretty upset at the realities it set forth. I give it credit for further raising my skepticism regarding our leaders' ability to put principle ahead of practicality and political expedience. While the book ends on a positive note, with a lot of simple and generally good ideas, the cycle of and ability to use threat inflation to win support or votes drives politicians, the military, and American business. Trump has virtually institutionalized this practice, and has proven to be more successful than anyone might have imagined. The writing in the book is precise, to the point, and effective. This is a "need to read" not an "enjoy reading" book.
Profile Image for Steven Adelman.
9 reviews8 followers
June 18, 2019
An excellent starting premise, which is that our world is actually safer than ever before, notwithstanding the self-serving "threat inflation" of many world leaders and the military-industrial complex. I wholeheartedly agree, even if an entire book of supporting evidence begins to feel like shouting into an echo chamber. Makes me look forward to reading Elizabeth Warren position papers just to confirm that there are smart people who take these issues seriously, not just as occasional talking points to rally their would-be base.
Profile Image for Mu-tien Chiou.
157 reviews32 followers
April 24, 2019

Retrospection bias aka. the "golden age" bias held by decision makers is documented in this book.

By misremembering the past as better than it actually was, we exaggerate present threats, which will lead to over-reactionary policies. Money that should have been freely spent by people became squandered tax spending on tightening security.
Profile Image for Don Mitchell.
262 reviews4 followers
June 30, 2019
Short, easy to read, and worthwhile, but very of the time and somewhat Pollyanna.

The author brings together a lot of evidence that we live in a safer, more humane, cleaner, etc time than ever. He doesn’t shrink from pointing out some of our grossly foolish contrary actions especially wrt military. He clearly shows how ineffective and inefficient our military spending and use has been.
467 reviews2 followers
January 8, 2024
Good book about "Threat Inflation" - fearmongering over various foreign and nebulous concerns while allowing disregard for more pressing domestic concerns. Very poignant, a little left wing, but very reminiscent of common Free Market Capitalism hagiographies that correctly point out how much better overall things are today.
2 reviews
May 9, 2019
I feel like I've ever read it before. Has a strange obsession with attacking academia. Spends hardly any time on threats besides terrorism, barely even assuages concerns about that.
Profile Image for Jeremy Zweig.
5 reviews
October 16, 2019
Very quick, very accessible read about the damage the threat-industrial complex is doing to the national psyche. Facts are well-researched, compelling and heavily footnoted and the book closes with a short list of suggestions about a positive way forward. Makes you feel great about the safety of America and Americans, but concerned about how easily we're manipulated by those who profit from fear. Great stuff.
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