China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy

by Minxin Pei

The rise of China as a great power is one of the most important developments in the twenty-first century. But despite dramatic economic progress, China’s prospects remain uncertain. In a book sure to provoke debate, Minxin Pei examines the sustainability of the Chinese Communist Party’s reform strategy—pursuing pro-market economic policies under one-party rule. Pei casts doubt on three central explanations for why China’s strategy sustained economic development will lead to political liberalization and democratization; gradualist economic transition is a strategy superior to the “shock therapy” prescribed for the former Soviet Union; and a neo-authoritarian developmental state is essential to economic take-off. Pei argues that because the Communist Party must retain significant economic control to ensure its political survival, gradualism will ultimately fail. The lack of democratic reforms in China has led to pervasive corruption and a breakdown in political accountability. What has emerged is a decentralized predatory state in which local party bosses have effectively privatized the state’s authority. Collusive corruption is widespread and governance is deteriorating. Instead of evolving toward a full market economy, China is trapped in partial economic and political reforms. Combining powerful insights with empirical research, China’s Trapped Transition offers a provocative assessment of China’s future as a great power.

Genres: China, Nonfiction, Politics, Economics, History, Asia, Business

308 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2006

About the author

Minxin Pei is a political scientist and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College. Prior to this position, he was a senior associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and was a professor at Princeton University from 1992 to 1998. He holds a B.A. in English from Shanghai International Studies University, an MFA in Creative Writing from University of Pittsburgh and an M.A. and PhD in political science from Harvard University. He is an expert in Sino-American relations.

Reviews

[David · Rating 5 out of 5]

A brilliant, but dry [academic], book that pulls the curtain back on what is going on within China. Instead of focusing on the growth and macroeconomics this focuses on what is going on, financially and politically, behind the scenes. The author comes to the conclusion the hype surrounding China is pretty much ludicrous...though they'd not use such hyperbolic language.

The political, economics, and social 'predation' is on a scale so obscene that it isn't whether or not how high China will rise but how low it will fall. Stagnation is the kind outlook....implosion may be more accurate.

I'm of the opinion China will be a 'player' but not on the scale which is now expected by China 'watchers' like Nial Ferguson...and his one note obsession with the country.

A very worthwhile read....though quite dry.

[JJ W · Rating 5 out of 5]

necessary reading for anyone interested in the future of governance and economic reforms in China

[Michael · Rating 3 out of 5]

From 2006, I think the development challenges the author identified took longer than Pei anticipated to become critical problems. But I think his overall paradigm holds up fairly well.