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Growing Pains: the future of democracy
We are now living in a world where Brexit and Trump are daily realities. But how did this come about? And what does it mean for the future?
Populism and ultra-nationalism brought about the rise of Hitler and Mussolini in the 1930s. Now, as Trump sits in the White House, Britain negotiates its way out of the EU, and countries across Europe see substantial gains in support for the extreme Right, award-winning journalist, author, and historian Gwynne Dyer asks how we got here, and where we go next.
Dyer examines the global challenges facing us all today and explains how they have contributed to a world of inequality, poverty, and joblessness, conditions which he argues inevitably lead to the rise of populism. The greatest threat to social and political stability, he argues, lies in the rise of automation, which will continue to eliminate jobs, whether politicians admit that it is happening or not. To avoid a social and political catastrophe, we will have to find ways of putting real money into the pockets of those who have no work.
But this is not a book without hope. Our capacity for overcoming the worst has been tested again and again throughout history, and we have always survived. To do so now, Dyer argues, we must embrace radical solutions to the real difficulties facing individuals, or find ourselves back in the 1930s with no way out.
Populism and ultra-nationalism brought about the rise of Hitler and Mussolini in the 1930s. Now, as Trump sits in the White House, Britain negotiates its way out of the EU, and countries across Europe see substantial gains in support for the extreme Right, award-winning journalist, author, and historian Gwynne Dyer asks how we got here, and where we go next.
Dyer examines the global challenges facing us all today and explains how they have contributed to a world of inequality, poverty, and joblessness, conditions which he argues inevitably lead to the rise of populism. The greatest threat to social and political stability, he argues, lies in the rise of automation, which will continue to eliminate jobs, whether politicians admit that it is happening or not. To avoid a social and political catastrophe, we will have to find ways of putting real money into the pockets of those who have no work.
But this is not a book without hope. Our capacity for overcoming the worst has been tested again and again throughout history, and we have always survived. To do so now, Dyer argues, we must embrace radical solutions to the real difficulties facing individuals, or find ourselves back in the 1930s with no way out.
224 pages, Paperback
Published March 8, 2018
21 people are currently reading
177 people want to read
About the author
Gwynne Dyer
34 books111 followersGwynne Dyer, OC is a London-based independent Canadian journalist, syndicated columnist and military historian.
Dyer was born in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador (then the Dominion of Newfoundland) and joined the Royal Canadian Naval Reserve at the age of sixteen. While still in the naval reserve, he obtained a BA in history from Memorial University of Newfoundland in 1963; an MA in military history from Rice University in Houston, Texas, in 1966; and a PhD in military and Middle Eastern history at King's College London in 1973. Dyer served in the Canadian, American and British naval reserves. He was employed as a senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 1973–77. In 1973 he began writing articles for leading London newspapers on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and soon decided to abandon academic life for a full-time career in journalism. In 2010, he was appointed an Officer of the Order of Canada.
Dyer was born in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador (then the Dominion of Newfoundland) and joined the Royal Canadian Naval Reserve at the age of sixteen. While still in the naval reserve, he obtained a BA in history from Memorial University of Newfoundland in 1963; an MA in military history from Rice University in Houston, Texas, in 1966; and a PhD in military and Middle Eastern history at King's College London in 1973. Dyer served in the Canadian, American and British naval reserves. He was employed as a senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 1973–77. In 1973 he began writing articles for leading London newspapers on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and soon decided to abandon academic life for a full-time career in journalism. In 2010, he was appointed an Officer of the Order of Canada.
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Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
July 16, 2019
Really enjoy how Gwynne Dyer takes the long view. In this, his book on UBI and the future of work, the long view isn't just all of history, or even prehistory, but goes all the way back to primatology.
The stuff about the u-shaped or pot-handle curve is fascinating. It goes life this: our closest primate ancestors (despite having complex political arrangements) all live in rigid hierarchies (vertical groups), early human hunter-gatherers lived an egalitarian life (horizontal groups), human societies from the dawn of civilization until quite recently were back to rigid hierarchies (another vertical group, thus the u-shape), but the advance of the printing press, universal literacy, and now mass communication is giving us the chance to become egalitarian again, to some extent (add another horizontal line and you've got a sauce pan shape). The theory being humans (and perhaps great apes in general) have a dominance drive but are complex enough to see the limits to it ("All men seek to rule, but if they cannot rule they prefer to remain equal") and thus we are innately egalitarian, but don't always have the communication skills necessary to establish what Dyer calls "reverse dominance hierarchy" (ie a group forming to prevent so-called 'alpha males' from becoming tyrants). And it makes sense: chimps don't have language, so they can't coordinate and are doomed to always playing out dominance games; whereas early hunter-gatherer groups have language and lived in groups small enough where they could know every single member (ie group size determined by Dunbar's number, he looks at the the !kung people's conception of humility in the Kalahari); then early agricultural groups invented mass societies where people couldn't know each other personally and had no literacy to compensate, resulting in brutal dominance from those at the top of the hierarchy in forms like slavery and serfdom; then in the late 1700s you have majority adult literacy for the first time resulting in the American Revolution, then the French, and so on until you get to the waves of peaceful revolutions that brought down regimes in Eastern Europe and Asia in the 80s and 90s, there's a return to egalitarianism but the absolute equality of the hunter-gatherer life is gone.
From there it's off to Brexit, Trump, a detour into MAD, and the case for a UBI. He makes a good case that while globalization is definitely suppressing wages, it's not the prime mover in killing jobs. That would be automation. There's a great look at how the automobile industry is changing. Dyer makes a convincing case that automation is going to kill jobs and change society the way the industrial revolution invented jobs and forced a migration to town and cities. And automation under capitalism breeds income inequality, which is responsible for the recent populist backlash. There are even health and social consequences for income inequality, including a lowering of life expectancy.
My major complaint with the book is that there's some left punching. I've been reading Dyer since I was a kid around the turn of the millennium, and I expect better from him. He's got a really frustrating line he ends the book on saying that, given the environmental crisis, we don't have time for large changes to the economic system and what we need is the quick fix of UBI. There's also a sort of dismissiveness in taking the long view that leads him to not addressing the fact that there's going to be a huge reactionary backlash to any ubi program. A robot tax (part of his solution for how to pay a UBI) is really a billionaire tax, and those people don't take kindly to losing money. At the very least, I think you have to couple UBI with demands for a right to housing, education and healthcare. Because what good is a UBI where landlords can set rent to the minimum payment?
That aside, I think this might be my favourite Gwynne Dyer book since War. It's more personal, it's more optimistic, it's fascinating and far-ranging, and it insists that we have to start taking the long view.
The stuff about the u-shaped or pot-handle curve is fascinating. It goes life this: our closest primate ancestors (despite having complex political arrangements) all live in rigid hierarchies (vertical groups), early human hunter-gatherers lived an egalitarian life (horizontal groups), human societies from the dawn of civilization until quite recently were back to rigid hierarchies (another vertical group, thus the u-shape), but the advance of the printing press, universal literacy, and now mass communication is giving us the chance to become egalitarian again, to some extent (add another horizontal line and you've got a sauce pan shape). The theory being humans (and perhaps great apes in general) have a dominance drive but are complex enough to see the limits to it ("All men seek to rule, but if they cannot rule they prefer to remain equal") and thus we are innately egalitarian, but don't always have the communication skills necessary to establish what Dyer calls "reverse dominance hierarchy" (ie a group forming to prevent so-called 'alpha males' from becoming tyrants). And it makes sense: chimps don't have language, so they can't coordinate and are doomed to always playing out dominance games; whereas early hunter-gatherer groups have language and lived in groups small enough where they could know every single member (ie group size determined by Dunbar's number, he looks at the the !kung people's conception of humility in the Kalahari); then early agricultural groups invented mass societies where people couldn't know each other personally and had no literacy to compensate, resulting in brutal dominance from those at the top of the hierarchy in forms like slavery and serfdom; then in the late 1700s you have majority adult literacy for the first time resulting in the American Revolution, then the French, and so on until you get to the waves of peaceful revolutions that brought down regimes in Eastern Europe and Asia in the 80s and 90s, there's a return to egalitarianism but the absolute equality of the hunter-gatherer life is gone.
From there it's off to Brexit, Trump, a detour into MAD, and the case for a UBI. He makes a good case that while globalization is definitely suppressing wages, it's not the prime mover in killing jobs. That would be automation. There's a great look at how the automobile industry is changing. Dyer makes a convincing case that automation is going to kill jobs and change society the way the industrial revolution invented jobs and forced a migration to town and cities. And automation under capitalism breeds income inequality, which is responsible for the recent populist backlash. There are even health and social consequences for income inequality, including a lowering of life expectancy.
My major complaint with the book is that there's some left punching. I've been reading Dyer since I was a kid around the turn of the millennium, and I expect better from him. He's got a really frustrating line he ends the book on saying that, given the environmental crisis, we don't have time for large changes to the economic system and what we need is the quick fix of UBI. There's also a sort of dismissiveness in taking the long view that leads him to not addressing the fact that there's going to be a huge reactionary backlash to any ubi program. A robot tax (part of his solution for how to pay a UBI) is really a billionaire tax, and those people don't take kindly to losing money. At the very least, I think you have to couple UBI with demands for a right to housing, education and healthcare. Because what good is a UBI where landlords can set rent to the minimum payment?
That aside, I think this might be my favourite Gwynne Dyer book since War. It's more personal, it's more optimistic, it's fascinating and far-ranging, and it insists that we have to start taking the long view.
January 14, 2019
This book gives a contemporary critique of politics and the economy in the West and some thoughts about future directions.
The first chapter, called "Big Yellow Canary", makes the comparison to a canary in a coal mine, looks into the (long-term) positive aspects of recent political events that brought the growing populist unrest into the mainstream.
The remainder of the book discusses (as the title states) the future of democracy and work. Dyer argues that the future of the first will follow the second and that unless governments find a way of providing gainful employment/income for people, democracies will continue to elect more and more authoritarian governments. He gives his arguments for how globalization/automation lead to job loss/wage stagnation. He also gives an interesting overview of the development of the post-war welfare state that was developed in response to 1930s fascism. He ultimately concludes that universal basic income is something that developed countries will need to seriously consider.
All in all, I think this offers a pretty realistic and objective (or center left) point of view of current affairs in the developed world and offers rational solutions. This book a pretty quick and not too complex read. It also offers a fairly positive outlook on world politics today, which can be comforting (although perhaps a bit optimistic).
The first chapter, called "Big Yellow Canary", makes the comparison to a canary in a coal mine, looks into the (long-term) positive aspects of recent political events that brought the growing populist unrest into the mainstream.
The remainder of the book discusses (as the title states) the future of democracy and work. Dyer argues that the future of the first will follow the second and that unless governments find a way of providing gainful employment/income for people, democracies will continue to elect more and more authoritarian governments. He gives his arguments for how globalization/automation lead to job loss/wage stagnation. He also gives an interesting overview of the development of the post-war welfare state that was developed in response to 1930s fascism. He ultimately concludes that universal basic income is something that developed countries will need to seriously consider.
All in all, I think this offers a pretty realistic and objective (or center left) point of view of current affairs in the developed world and offers rational solutions. This book a pretty quick and not too complex read. It also offers a fairly positive outlook on world politics today, which can be comforting (although perhaps a bit optimistic).
April 26, 2021
Corporations have really loved automation and offshoring as they have contributed tremendously to their bottom line. They will also love self-driving cars and trucks when they eliminate even more human workers. What is not clear is, with ever fewer jobs, where will the ever increasing number of people get money to buy food and the things that make money for the corporations. Unless they truly do start to give back some of the money they have harvested and banked from the rest of us there would seem to be only sleeping rough and starvation in the future for anyone not able to buy an island or live in a heavily fortified gated community with its own security force.
They will either be ok with that or with a basic income possibly paid for by a tax on AI workers.
They will either be ok with that or with a basic income possibly paid for by a tax on AI workers.
June 9, 2018
I used to really like his stuff, but most of this reads like “economic anxiety” trutherism about both Brexit, and of course, the 2016 US election.
Income inequality is a huge problem. However, attempting to examine the ramifications of income inequality with barely a handwave at racism, sexism and any other attempt at intersectionality is pure folly.
At one point, he fills three pages with some of 45’s most repugnant racism and sexism...and then just goes right back to talking about the economy! He basically attributes 45’s election to the 12% of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin voters who swung from Sanders in the primaries to GOP in the general, and then says: “We can safely assume that it was not racism or sexism that attracted them.” And that’s it. A done deal. We can safely assume. That’s all. Not one shred of evidence supporting that “safe assumption,” except a flabbergasting comment that 45 made election commitments to address income inequality?? Sorry, what?
I don’t want to turn a GR review into a 2016 post-mortem. I’m tired of talking about anything related to the US political situation in general. I don’t know what I expected when I picked this up, but the book’s first sentence is “This is not a book about Donald Trump,” which...it sure didn’t act like it.
Income inequality is a huge problem. However, attempting to examine the ramifications of income inequality with barely a handwave at racism, sexism and any other attempt at intersectionality is pure folly.
At one point, he fills three pages with some of 45’s most repugnant racism and sexism...and then just goes right back to talking about the economy! He basically attributes 45’s election to the 12% of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin voters who swung from Sanders in the primaries to GOP in the general, and then says: “We can safely assume that it was not racism or sexism that attracted them.” And that’s it. A done deal. We can safely assume. That’s all. Not one shred of evidence supporting that “safe assumption,” except a flabbergasting comment that 45 made election commitments to address income inequality?? Sorry, what?
I don’t want to turn a GR review into a 2016 post-mortem. I’m tired of talking about anything related to the US political situation in general. I don’t know what I expected when I picked this up, but the book’s first sentence is “This is not a book about Donald Trump,” which...it sure didn’t act like it.
March 7, 2019
I've been a fan of Gwynne Dyer's work for years, primarily his freelance contributions — namely, columns — to dozens of newspapers. In particular, I often find myself onside with his thinking about climate change, and when I had the opportunity to interview him on the topic he impressed me with not only the breadth of his knowledge, but also the eloquence with which he imparts it.
Growing Pains is written in a very similar style to his columns, and in fact, you could consider it to be a collection of long reads on various topics, all of which seem to drive toward the more-or-less central concern of the future of Western society and the democratic system.
There are, of course, chapters on Trump and the ugly returns of both populism and nationalism in our public discourse, but those aren't the most compelling parts of the book. Instead, that honour should be handed to the pages dedicated to automation, its impact on humanity (particularly on work), and the ways we can avoid a collapse of systems vital to our society by making sure we address the oncoming post-work economy and the hundreds of millions of unemployable people it will bring.
It's good stuff, but perhaps could have benefited from better connective essays to link each chapter to the next. Still, if you're a fan of the author, you'll find much to enjoy within these pages.
Growing Pains is written in a very similar style to his columns, and in fact, you could consider it to be a collection of long reads on various topics, all of which seem to drive toward the more-or-less central concern of the future of Western society and the democratic system.
There are, of course, chapters on Trump and the ugly returns of both populism and nationalism in our public discourse, but those aren't the most compelling parts of the book. Instead, that honour should be handed to the pages dedicated to automation, its impact on humanity (particularly on work), and the ways we can avoid a collapse of systems vital to our society by making sure we address the oncoming post-work economy and the hundreds of millions of unemployable people it will bring.
It's good stuff, but perhaps could have benefited from better connective essays to link each chapter to the next. Still, if you're a fan of the author, you'll find much to enjoy within these pages.
August 4, 2018
A refreshingly optimistic look at world affairs - how we got here and how we may overcome our most pressing problems (income inequality, exacerbated by automation, climate change) without destroying our most valuable collective historical achievement - democracy. The title of the first chapter "A Giant Orange Canary" sets the tone for this somewhat irreverent, but also very thoughtful and knowledgeable analysis. Solutions are offered not with dogmatic fervor, but as pragmatic suggestions. Highly readable and highly recommended!
December 20, 2018
A thought provoking examination of our political realities today - the rise of populism and Donald Trump, and Brexit in the UK. Gwynne Dyer has impressive credentials as an historian, politico and journalist. He reflects on history and watches trends in order to understand the shifts in our democracy and the factors that most influence or hamper our progress as a civilization. Until we can solve the problem of automation, the disappearance of jobs and the increasing gap between rich and poor, unrest and intolerance will flourish.
February 21, 2019
Written in Dyer's distinctive matter-of-fact, BS free style, Growing Pains is a short and to the point analysis of the current political turmoil facing western democracies. Never sensationalist or overly pessimistic (or optimistic), Dyer dissects the root causes of low employment, income inequality and the subsequent rise of angry populism. In just over 200 pages, Dyer gives more insight that two years worth of shallow political commentary on cable TV. Highly recommended for those interested in root causes and not dogma.
March 23, 2022
“All men seek to rule but if they cannot rule, they prefer to remain equal.”. Human evolution is an experiment on how humans order society and the idea of equality. Democracy has been born from this desire to share the world’s benefits.
The outbreak of angry populism is actually about equally…too many people feel they have been left behind and are not heard.
Dyer’s solution is UBI Universal Basic Income…ensuring that everyone has a decent income despite the unstoppable advance of automation, and doing it in a way that does not humiliating those who no longer have jobs.
The outbreak of angry populism is actually about equally…too many people feel they have been left behind and are not heard.
Dyer’s solution is UBI Universal Basic Income…ensuring that everyone has a decent income despite the unstoppable advance of automation, and doing it in a way that does not humiliating those who no longer have jobs.
February 7, 2021
Interesting history of democracy and a compelling, bipartisan case for reducing inequality through universal basic income. The author occasionally came across as a bit callous in a rush to contextualize our current moment in history and I felt like this book would have benefited from a more anti-oppressive lens. But still, interesting read.
Read
July 18, 2020Really interesting. And way more optimistic than I expected, given that the last thing of Dyer’s that I came across was his War documentary series.
March 7, 2021
If you are a future thinker I definitely do recommend the book. It goes into China, international relations, and other things that people need to read about. It may be a bit scary but a good read.
November 15, 2020
I've been a fan of Gwynne Dyer's for many years, in good part because he's writing from an 0utside-the-US viewpoint. He wrote this book in 2017; his observations and conclusions hold, but the world - and US - context has moved on (ie - Trump will be leaving office, on way or another, by January 20, 2021 when president-elect Biden is sworn in)
Dyer has dryly witty writing style, which allows him to make points without hitting you over the head. He knows his history and anthropology, knows the current world political landscape well, and with a fully lived life, is well-positioned to be fairly optimistic about where we're heading in the long term, provided we successfully negotiate the current societal shoals around automation.
Dyer has dryly witty writing style, which allows him to make points without hitting you over the head. He knows his history and anthropology, knows the current world political landscape well, and with a fully lived life, is well-positioned to be fairly optimistic about where we're heading in the long term, provided we successfully negotiate the current societal shoals around automation.
Read
May 29, 2018Dyer writes with easy fluency, with gentle, teasing wit.
The Irish Times
Dyer writes with a racy style and provokes as much as he informs.
The Independent
Thoughtful and thought-provoking.
Weekend Herald, Auckland
The Irish Times
Dyer writes with a racy style and provokes as much as he informs.
The Independent
Thoughtful and thought-provoking.
Weekend Herald, Auckland
March 22, 2019
Gwynne tortures each page with long, desperate, hysterical bouts of moralising, backed up by a sophomoric analysis and understanding of the world around him. This is, unfortunately, another book by a resentful school marm who is all-too-eager to tell people how to behave yet feels no compunction to actually research their position and justify it with sound reasoning. Nobody needs more another low-IQ irrelevant with an overblown sense of self. Look elsewhere to kill time.
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews