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Brexit: What the Hell Happens Now?
Everything you need to know about Britain's divorce from Europe
Our departure from the European Union is filled with propaganda, myth and and half truth - but the risks are very real. Mishandling Brexit could lower our global status, diminish our quality of life, and throw our legal system into turmoil.
With the help of leading experts in trade and law, Ian Dunt, editor of Politics.co.uk, explains:
- why leaving the EU is set to make us permanently poorer
- how cutting immigration will affect wages and taxes
- why leading industries like farming, pharmaceuticals and finance will struggle to operate
- whether the biggest constitutional change in post-war history will break up the UK
This is the first full public exploration of Brexit, shorn of the wishful thinking of its supporters in Parliament and the media.
It is portrait of a country about to undergo a self-inflicted isolation.
Our departure from the European Union is filled with propaganda, myth and and half truth - but the risks are very real. Mishandling Brexit could lower our global status, diminish our quality of life, and throw our legal system into turmoil.
With the help of leading experts in trade and law, Ian Dunt, editor of Politics.co.uk, explains:
- why leaving the EU is set to make us permanently poorer
- how cutting immigration will affect wages and taxes
- why leading industries like farming, pharmaceuticals and finance will struggle to operate
- whether the biggest constitutional change in post-war history will break up the UK
This is the first full public exploration of Brexit, shorn of the wishful thinking of its supporters in Parliament and the media.
It is portrait of a country about to undergo a self-inflicted isolation.
188 pages, Paperback
First published November 17, 2016
83 people are currently reading
451 people want to read
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August 31, 2018
English Opening, Brexit Variation
Oh, how I wish I'd thought of this myself! But since I didn't, I'm happy to retweet John Saunders's excellent post. It's both the best chess joke and the best Brexit joke I've seen all year.
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January 8, 2017aaaand now I am depressed and mildly terrified. Spells out exactly how we're going to slide into economic doom, not as an inevitable consequence of Brexit, but because of the ideologues with fingers in their ears treating a massively complex situation as if mouthing three-word slogans will make it okay. That's fine, it's only the future of the country you're screwing with. ffff someone pass me a romance novel.
Anyway, this is a great primer if you want to understand why we are going to hell in a handcart.
Anyway, this is a great primer if you want to understand why we are going to hell in a handcart.
February 7, 2017
As a friend of the author, I was surprised by how balanced Brexit: What the Hell Happens Now? felt, despite knowing that Ian wanted Britain to remain in the European Union. The tone of the book is one that accepts the reality of Brexit by systematically going through the unprecedented complexities of trade, law, and immigration arising from it. In clear, easy-to-read terms, Ian explains the options available to Britain and the consequences of those options. Sadly, the only sure conclusion I drew from the book is that not even Jack Reacher can help untangle the massive, messy task ahead. This is a firm recommendation.
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November 30, 2016I don't read many current affairs books, because lead times mean they tend to be overtaken by events. But, presumably assisted by the nimbleness of a small publisher, this one still feels all too current. Of late, I also don't read too many current affairs books because compared to a nice slice of dystopian SF, or grimdark fantasy, or cosmic horror, current affairs books are too bloody depressing. In that regard, this one is no better. But since Britain's monumental moment of summer stupidity, Dunt's articles and social media have been one of the better commentary tracks on the whole clusterfuck, capturing just the right mix of head-in-hands bemusement and outright rage at our clueless leaders and their backers in the peanut gallery. If you have been paying attention, there isn't an awful lot here that's entirely new, but it's worth reading simply to get a comparatively calm summary of the situation, as opposed to the various flurries of claim and counterclaim with which we've been assailed since befor the vote. Obviously, for me it helps that Dunt is coming from roughly the same position as me - a cautious Remain voter, but not one oblivious to the EU's many problems. Still, even people keen on Brexit could profit from a read of this, because those who disagree with the sentiments will nevertheless find the summaries of eg the difference between the single market and the customs union to be very useful. Sadly, as recounted here, most of them seem convinced that bullish post-truth bluster will serve them better than anything so old-fashioned as 'facts'; the real takeaway is that a competently conducted Brexit wouldn't have to be a total disaster, but that the pseudo-populist shambles which seems currently to be underway is more or less guaranteed to be, consisting as it has thus far of incompetents who've started out with bad hands but then still managed to play them more poorly than they could have.
(Disclaimer: I do know Ian, though principally in his capacity as someone with whom to argue about Batman, rather than as the politics editor of the Erotic Review or the presumably erotic editor of Politics.co.uk. Still, I very much know him in the fashion where, had he churned out a quick cash-in, I would have been happy to mock him about it. As is, my only complaints are a few typos and other signs of rushed editing, and one reference to Argentina seeking to 'regain control' of the Falklands, which if you squint could be justified as being intended from their POV)
(Disclaimer: I do know Ian, though principally in his capacity as someone with whom to argue about Batman, rather than as the politics editor of the Erotic Review or the presumably erotic editor of Politics.co.uk. Still, I very much know him in the fashion where, had he churned out a quick cash-in, I would have been happy to mock him about it. As is, my only complaints are a few typos and other signs of rushed editing, and one reference to Argentina seeking to 'regain control' of the Falklands, which if you squint could be justified as being intended from their POV)
January 4, 2022
Educational to the point of being terrifying. I don't think many people have really grasped the colossal scale of what leaving the European Union would involve. I voted remain based on the advice from economic and political figures I sort of trusted and based on a vague sense of internationalism, but I myself wasn't terribly well clued up on the issues. I wish this book had been around beforehand as I would have campaigned much more vigorously for us to stay in.
The different hypothetical scenarios we may find ourselves in are laid out in plain and simple terms and the bureaucratic behemoth that is the European Union is rendered fairly understandable. Dunt's description of the fallout from our leaving is well researched and supported. I feel much more confident discussing these issues now than I did before and I recommend everyone in the UK read this book.
The different hypothetical scenarios we may find ourselves in are laid out in plain and simple terms and the bureaucratic behemoth that is the European Union is rendered fairly understandable. Dunt's description of the fallout from our leaving is well researched and supported. I feel much more confident discussing these issues now than I did before and I recommend everyone in the UK read this book.
July 28, 2018
Started at lunchtime and finished by the end of the day - the detail of what a hard Brexit really means. Everyone who voted should have been made to read this first before their vote counted. Compulsive reading and a real life horror story.
January 22, 2017
Britain is in trouble.
This was a very interesting and clarifying read on a modern historical event that everybody underestimates.
Short and concise.
This was a very interesting and clarifying read on a modern historical event that everybody underestimates.
Short and concise.
January 23, 2017
A quick and enlighting read. (Sometimes I wondered if i should have read something in my native German, to really get all the details right.)
It made me feel sorry for my beloved Brits and, just like Dunt, I can't get my head around why they as a nation decided to throw away their long tradition of scepticism and irony. I would also recommend the book for readers on the continent: Anyone searching for arguments to hold against their homegrown right-wingers, who are just too eager to follow the example of Brexit, can find enough of them in this book.
It made me feel sorry for my beloved Brits and, just like Dunt, I can't get my head around why they as a nation decided to throw away their long tradition of scepticism and irony. I would also recommend the book for readers on the continent: Anyone searching for arguments to hold against their homegrown right-wingers, who are just too eager to follow the example of Brexit, can find enough of them in this book.
July 8, 2019
After years living within the utterly undeliverable shambles of this wasteful British mess, you wonder if surely by now you know the general broad strokes of things. I bought this book because I absolutely enjoy Dunt's words, style and vocabulary and wanted to support his work a little. Turns out that even though this book has been out a while there is still quite some value to it, which rather surprised me.
December 30, 2016
This is a difficult book to review.
The author, Ian Dunt, is editor of politics.co.uk and he often writes on (amongst other things) immigration, democracy and Brexit.
The book was released on 17/11/16 and therefore just misses the Presidential Election. It does, however, reference things as late as October 2016.
The author introduces the book with a vision of what the UK will look like after March 2019 i.e. after we leave the EU. This is all very doom gloom, but the author points out that this will only be the outcome if brexit is mishandled.
The author then goes through a number of key topics such as the Single Market and Article 50 and explains the difficulties around these issues. He then spreads a little further afield to the different models adopted by counties outside the EU but with ties to the EU and how they work; what the the advantages and disadvantages of each model are (in brief); and why they may not be available to the UK.
He then moves on how Brexit may effect Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Union. This is followed by section poking holes in the Brexit team and their departments. He concludes with a number of key issues that didn't fit comfortably into any earlier section of the book (e.g. The Great Repeal Bill).
The book boasts a list of experts and is referenced, though which expert commented on which bits is not apparant and the references are only collated by chapter and are not endnotes.
At 180+ pages (approximately 150 after excluding reference section etc) it's readable in one sitting.
This book is very readable and if you know a little about the EU and Brexit you will get something from it. If you come away from this book either with dread or feeling daunted it has done it's job.
The first thing that surprised me about this book is the stance it takes. I anticipated that the book was written for a remain perspective and would simply outline how terrible Brexit will be. However, it's written with out of the EU as the only destination and focusses on how a number of key factors (the biggest being time and the second being the Government's naivety over all aspects of Brexit) are likely to result in a 'chaotic Brexit' (i.e. a brexit where the UK is worse off than in the EU).
I felt a little shortchanged that the option of staying in the EU was not given time, but this may be my bias kicking in.
I was also a little disappointed that many of the doom scenarios are simply put across as 'we would hope to achieve x and y but we probably wont't' or 'even though z is likely to be achieved, we can't guarantee anything' (not actual quotes, but an illustration of many point being up in the air).
I would have liked to see more on thing like the UN agencies and how they influence (supra)national legislation and how leaving redtape behind is an illusion. I would have liked to see a rebuttal to UKIP's 'forget Article 50 - let's just leave'.
I have a little moan to make about the odd typo (nothing major) and some harder concepts not explained e.g. non-tairff trade barriers.
Finally, I felt the book suddenly ended. It would have done with a decent couple of page conclusion.
Now it may look like my praise is short and complaint list long, but in fact I really enjoyed this book. It's set at a level that most people with an interest in Brexit will be able to pick it up and read it. It generally flows well. It generally explains things well and it doesn't shy away from the positives.
I left this book feeling that there is absolutely no way the Tories will provide a 'good' Brexit.
Give it a read.
The author, Ian Dunt, is editor of politics.co.uk and he often writes on (amongst other things) immigration, democracy and Brexit.
The book was released on 17/11/16 and therefore just misses the Presidential Election. It does, however, reference things as late as October 2016.
The author introduces the book with a vision of what the UK will look like after March 2019 i.e. after we leave the EU. This is all very doom gloom, but the author points out that this will only be the outcome if brexit is mishandled.
The author then goes through a number of key topics such as the Single Market and Article 50 and explains the difficulties around these issues. He then spreads a little further afield to the different models adopted by counties outside the EU but with ties to the EU and how they work; what the the advantages and disadvantages of each model are (in brief); and why they may not be available to the UK.
He then moves on how Brexit may effect Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Union. This is followed by section poking holes in the Brexit team and their departments. He concludes with a number of key issues that didn't fit comfortably into any earlier section of the book (e.g. The Great Repeal Bill).
The book boasts a list of experts and is referenced, though which expert commented on which bits is not apparant and the references are only collated by chapter and are not endnotes.
At 180+ pages (approximately 150 after excluding reference section etc) it's readable in one sitting.
This book is very readable and if you know a little about the EU and Brexit you will get something from it. If you come away from this book either with dread or feeling daunted it has done it's job.
The first thing that surprised me about this book is the stance it takes. I anticipated that the book was written for a remain perspective and would simply outline how terrible Brexit will be. However, it's written with out of the EU as the only destination and focusses on how a number of key factors (the biggest being time and the second being the Government's naivety over all aspects of Brexit) are likely to result in a 'chaotic Brexit' (i.e. a brexit where the UK is worse off than in the EU).
I felt a little shortchanged that the option of staying in the EU was not given time, but this may be my bias kicking in.
I was also a little disappointed that many of the doom scenarios are simply put across as 'we would hope to achieve x and y but we probably wont't' or 'even though z is likely to be achieved, we can't guarantee anything' (not actual quotes, but an illustration of many point being up in the air).
I would have liked to see more on thing like the UN agencies and how they influence (supra)national legislation and how leaving redtape behind is an illusion. I would have liked to see a rebuttal to UKIP's 'forget Article 50 - let's just leave'.
I have a little moan to make about the odd typo (nothing major) and some harder concepts not explained e.g. non-tairff trade barriers.
Finally, I felt the book suddenly ended. It would have done with a decent couple of page conclusion.
Now it may look like my praise is short and complaint list long, but in fact I really enjoyed this book. It's set at a level that most people with an interest in Brexit will be able to pick it up and read it. It generally flows well. It generally explains things well and it doesn't shy away from the positives.
I left this book feeling that there is absolutely no way the Tories will provide a 'good' Brexit.
Give it a read.
November 26, 2017
Starts out terrifying, with what Dunt thankfully admits is a worse-case scenario. But it doesn't get much more optimistic after that either.
Dunt produces many many examples of areas of law and trade which will need to be addressed for Brexit to succeed, for us even to get over the transition without mishap.
What comes across most (it's a point hammered home brutally) is the sheer scale of the task and the apparent inability of the present government to appreciate just how much needs to be done in the short time available.
Dunt is also very clear about the fact that there are several different ways to implement an exit from the European Union: a menu of options including tariff-free Single Market access, customs union, passporting, as well as the much discussed hard Brexit defaulting to WTO rules.
You start to wonder why all these options weren't fully discussed during the referendum campaign and then, a moment later, you don't wonder at all. A nation facing a question on exactly which form of Brexit it wanted might have thrown up its collective hands in confusion and opted to leave well alone. Now these questions must be addressed though.
I don't have enough expert knowledge in law or politics to judge Ian Dunt's accuracy in many of the points he makes, but even now, about three months after the book was published, nothing has substantially changed: the same issues remain to be resolved; we are still no closer to knowing what kind of trade agreements we might negotiate with the EU; we don't know the government's intentions for passporting or for protecting the status of EU citizens living in the UK.
We do know that banks are making plans to move some staff into Europe, as predicted; and large manufacturers are expecting special incentives to keep them here in the UK.
After reading this, I'm left feeling despondent and frankly hopeless about the UK's future. I'm even more pessimistic about the ministers who now have responsibility for shepherding the nation through this.
Dunt produces many many examples of areas of law and trade which will need to be addressed for Brexit to succeed, for us even to get over the transition without mishap.
What comes across most (it's a point hammered home brutally) is the sheer scale of the task and the apparent inability of the present government to appreciate just how much needs to be done in the short time available.
Dunt is also very clear about the fact that there are several different ways to implement an exit from the European Union: a menu of options including tariff-free Single Market access, customs union, passporting, as well as the much discussed hard Brexit defaulting to WTO rules.
You start to wonder why all these options weren't fully discussed during the referendum campaign and then, a moment later, you don't wonder at all. A nation facing a question on exactly which form of Brexit it wanted might have thrown up its collective hands in confusion and opted to leave well alone. Now these questions must be addressed though.
I don't have enough expert knowledge in law or politics to judge Ian Dunt's accuracy in many of the points he makes, but even now, about three months after the book was published, nothing has substantially changed: the same issues remain to be resolved; we are still no closer to knowing what kind of trade agreements we might negotiate with the EU; we don't know the government's intentions for passporting or for protecting the status of EU citizens living in the UK.
We do know that banks are making plans to move some staff into Europe, as predicted; and large manufacturers are expecting special incentives to keep them here in the UK.
After reading this, I'm left feeling despondent and frankly hopeless about the UK's future. I'm even more pessimistic about the ministers who now have responsibility for shepherding the nation through this.
August 15, 2025
Economically, Britain appears doomed.
Without getting into the ridiculous internecine politics that spawned the even more ridiculous referendum, Ian Dunt attempts to describe a post-Brexit world. Unlike the expectations of vast swathes of our country, the future pictured here in not one in which we wrestle back control of our country from the fastidious, over-regulating, 'cash-dependent' EU. The real picture, is bleak. Its worse than bleak, its bloody depressing. Inevitably, as a nation we will end up yapping away at larger, more economically solid countries trying to scrap together new trade deals from our soon to be irrefutably weak position. Oh, and we mustn't forget about one of the more absurd threads of media hyperbole over the last decade - immigration. Immigration was at the forefront of the brexiteers agenda, but ironically by restricting the freedom of movement within the EU and by limited immigration number we commit another financial blunder. I think Ian Dunt summarised it well in an analogy that I'll develop for effect.
Brexit is like turning your computer off and on to try and fix a broken keyboard but when you turn it back on the whole thing has reset to factory settings, back to an operating system two decades old with no chance of an immediate upgrade. Only then do you realise that the keyboard wasn't broken so much as not plugged in. Plus to make matters worse, in the process of turning it off and on you've split coffee all over it. So now the entire thing is outdated, slow and sticky and you're going to have to sit down at the desk for hours (read: decades) trying to change back all the settings to how they once were.
I feel the horror tag for this book is somewhat appropriate.
Without getting into the ridiculous internecine politics that spawned the even more ridiculous referendum, Ian Dunt attempts to describe a post-Brexit world. Unlike the expectations of vast swathes of our country, the future pictured here in not one in which we wrestle back control of our country from the fastidious, over-regulating, 'cash-dependent' EU. The real picture, is bleak. Its worse than bleak, its bloody depressing. Inevitably, as a nation we will end up yapping away at larger, more economically solid countries trying to scrap together new trade deals from our soon to be irrefutably weak position. Oh, and we mustn't forget about one of the more absurd threads of media hyperbole over the last decade - immigration. Immigration was at the forefront of the brexiteers agenda, but ironically by restricting the freedom of movement within the EU and by limited immigration number we commit another financial blunder. I think Ian Dunt summarised it well in an analogy that I'll develop for effect.
Brexit is like turning your computer off and on to try and fix a broken keyboard but when you turn it back on the whole thing has reset to factory settings, back to an operating system two decades old with no chance of an immediate upgrade. Only then do you realise that the keyboard wasn't broken so much as not plugged in. Plus to make matters worse, in the process of turning it off and on you've split coffee all over it. So now the entire thing is outdated, slow and sticky and you're going to have to sit down at the desk for hours (read: decades) trying to change back all the settings to how they once were.
I feel the horror tag for this book is somewhat appropriate.
April 13, 2019
This is the 2017 edition And as of two weeks ago it should be more reflection but it isn't.
Has most of what Dunt says come true, well no because we haven't left but most of how Britain has conducted itself I've the last two years has.
Has most of what Dunt says come true, well no because we haven't left but most of how Britain has conducted itself I've the last two years has.
March 7, 2017
In the opening chapter of Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now? Ian Dunt paints a nightmare scenario lying ahead for the United Kingdom. No trade deal with the European Union, hard borders, re-implemented tariffs and customs red tape, and the British government at the mercy of Washington, Beijing and Tokyo. The pound plummets, the economy goes into freefall and dark times lie ahead for the British people. “That was the worst-case scenario,” Dunt explains at the beginning of the next chapter. “It is also Britain’s current destination.”
Dunt is the editor of politics.co.uk and the political editor of The Erotic Review. I’ve followed his writing for some time, and respect his level-headed and journalistic approach to writing editorials and opinion pieces, which seems increasingly uncommon on both the right and the left. By this I do not mean that he sits in the middle and gives equal respectability to all sides. I mean that he states the plain truth even when it seems unfashionable or uncomfortable to do so - and if you find the headline I just linked to strident or inflammatory, I suggest you read the entire piece. He deals with facts and figures and resents the increasing role that emotional, gut-level tribalism has come to play in politics, not just in Britain but around the world.
This has only been exacerbated by the Brexit divide in Britain. Dunt is a Remainer, but you wouldn’t be able to tell that from reading this book. He wastes no time on recriminations, finger-pointing or a dissection of the referendum campaign (riven as it was with misinformation, ignorance, propaganda and outright lies). Instead he looks ahead, to the enormous challenges Britain now faces, in the hope of making the best of a bad situation. To that end he’s interviewed dozens of economists, professors, lawyers and public servants to try to provide an outlay of exactly how Britain can extract itself from a political, legal and trading network that it’s been part of for more than forty years.
As the opening chapter explains: outlook not good. The problem with Brexit is that it’s not a simple proposition. “Brexit means Brexit,” Theresa May said firmly upon entering Downing Street, a meaningless tautology that will nonetheless go down in history textbooks which are unlikely to look kindly upon her and her current cabinet. After explaining exactly what the EU is and how Britain relates to it (not as silly as it sounds, since most Brits probably have only a vague idea) Dunt spends some time examining the three Brexit ministers – Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox - and how they’ve behaved since the referendum. Johnson has published multiple articles which contradict each other and ludicrously state that freedom of movement will continue; Fox repeatedly failed to understand that it’s illegal for the UK to make trade arrangements with other countries while still part of the EU; Davis conducted a meeting shortly after the referendum with business leaders who were pulled aside by civil servants beforehand and warned to only say they were positive and excited about the “opportunities” of Brexit.
By the end of this short and sobering book it seems very clear that few British people, whether they’re Merseyside plumbers or Tory Cabinet ministers, have much of an idea about exactly what the EU does and how catastrophic Brexit has the potential to be. Go on any Facebook or Twitter thread, or the comments section of online articles, and you will find a legion of Leave voters, lecturers at the University of Some Bloke At The Pub, happy to scoff at the notion that Britain will be anything other than enormously successful. There are no challenges or problems in Brexit-land, just a happily-raised middle finger at those faceless eurocrats in Brussels.
This is the problem Dunt finds so infuriating: not the concept of Britain leaving the EU in general, but the fact that it’s doing that so recklessly, so thoughtlessly, in a maelstrom of jingoistic tub-thumping and blind nostalgia for the British glory of a forgotten age. And, worse, that this shortsighted nationalism has infected the very highest level of politics. The book’s epigraph is a quote from Michael Gove:
“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms, saying they know what’s best and consistently getting it wrong.”
Michael Gove
Justice Secretary
Sky News, 3 June 2016*
*When told that the leaders of the US, China, India, Australia, the bank of England, the IMF, the IFS, the CBI, five former NATO Secretary-Generals, the chief executive of the NHS and most of Britain’s trade unions opposed Britain leaving the EU.
Foreign readers may not find Brexit particularly compelling reading; I’m Australian, but I care about politics, I lived in Britain for a year and I still have a job which means I need to watch a lot of BBC and Sky. (On a side note, as an Australian, the Remainer assumption that the UK can just turn around and find all the old countries of the Commonwealth waiting for it is hilarious. Nations don’t have friends, they have interests, and they also have their own scheming politicians and hysterical tabloids.) I also think the world’s fifth-largest economy cutting off its nose to spite its face will ultimately affect all of us. But the reason I think Dunt’s book is worthwhile reading no matter where you live is because it touches on that nerve of modern ignorance: the insidious influence of populist politics and the dismissal of people who actually know what the fuck they’re talking about. The most obvious example of this is Trump, but you can see it everywhere, as Facebook echo chambers slowly replace actual news and opinion from measured, intelligent sources. A few years ago I started working for a news network and was subject to countless hours of vox populi, and the inane, pig-headed, simple-minded nonsense that spouts from the mouth of the man on the Manly ferry when you put a microphone in front of him slowly eroded any respect I ever had for the intelligence of the common citizen. I try to avoid using the word stupid – many of these people are mechanics and doctors and engineers and environmental scientists, all of their heads swimming with skills and abilities I could never have. But they're ignorant. Everybody is ignorant of something, and nearly all of us are ignorant of EU political relationships and trade law. So putting a loosely-worded referendum to the entire populace, after years and years of tabloid propaganda, purely as a domestic political move to placate the right wing of your own party, arrogantly assuming you’ll easily win – was that maybe a stupid thing to do, Dave?
A lot of people, particularly Remainers, assume it will be no big deal. They are going to be painfully proven wrong. What we’re going to see is millions of EU citizens in the UK now living in fear of deportation, every British citizen being stripped of their EU citizenship rights, the jeopardisation of decades of peace in Northern Ireland with the possibility of the return of a hard border (astoundingly, David Davis seemed to believe in one interview that the Republic of Ireland is part of the UK), a second Scottish independence referendum, and a volatile economy and weak pound for a decade to come. But I’m sure it will be worth it for English people to get their bendy bananas back.
I’m clearly a tad more partisan about this than Dunt. But as I said, it’s not really Brexit itself: it’s the worrying trend of abandoning facts, reason and logic and replacing them with sloganeering and feelgood fantasies. It’s about understanding exactly what it is you’re tinkering with before you rip it apart (see also: the “Washington establishment”). I can guarantee you that the vast majority of Leave voters - and Remain voters, for that matter - and even the vast majority of the British Parliament would be unaware of the problems examined in this book, even now, nine months after the referendum. For those of us outside Europe, this is worthwhile reading. For those poor sods in Britain it’s essential.
Dunt is the editor of politics.co.uk and the political editor of The Erotic Review. I’ve followed his writing for some time, and respect his level-headed and journalistic approach to writing editorials and opinion pieces, which seems increasingly uncommon on both the right and the left. By this I do not mean that he sits in the middle and gives equal respectability to all sides. I mean that he states the plain truth even when it seems unfashionable or uncomfortable to do so - and if you find the headline I just linked to strident or inflammatory, I suggest you read the entire piece. He deals with facts and figures and resents the increasing role that emotional, gut-level tribalism has come to play in politics, not just in Britain but around the world.
This has only been exacerbated by the Brexit divide in Britain. Dunt is a Remainer, but you wouldn’t be able to tell that from reading this book. He wastes no time on recriminations, finger-pointing or a dissection of the referendum campaign (riven as it was with misinformation, ignorance, propaganda and outright lies). Instead he looks ahead, to the enormous challenges Britain now faces, in the hope of making the best of a bad situation. To that end he’s interviewed dozens of economists, professors, lawyers and public servants to try to provide an outlay of exactly how Britain can extract itself from a political, legal and trading network that it’s been part of for more than forty years.
As the opening chapter explains: outlook not good. The problem with Brexit is that it’s not a simple proposition. “Brexit means Brexit,” Theresa May said firmly upon entering Downing Street, a meaningless tautology that will nonetheless go down in history textbooks which are unlikely to look kindly upon her and her current cabinet. After explaining exactly what the EU is and how Britain relates to it (not as silly as it sounds, since most Brits probably have only a vague idea) Dunt spends some time examining the three Brexit ministers – Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox - and how they’ve behaved since the referendum. Johnson has published multiple articles which contradict each other and ludicrously state that freedom of movement will continue; Fox repeatedly failed to understand that it’s illegal for the UK to make trade arrangements with other countries while still part of the EU; Davis conducted a meeting shortly after the referendum with business leaders who were pulled aside by civil servants beforehand and warned to only say they were positive and excited about the “opportunities” of Brexit.
By the end of this short and sobering book it seems very clear that few British people, whether they’re Merseyside plumbers or Tory Cabinet ministers, have much of an idea about exactly what the EU does and how catastrophic Brexit has the potential to be. Go on any Facebook or Twitter thread, or the comments section of online articles, and you will find a legion of Leave voters, lecturers at the University of Some Bloke At The Pub, happy to scoff at the notion that Britain will be anything other than enormously successful. There are no challenges or problems in Brexit-land, just a happily-raised middle finger at those faceless eurocrats in Brussels.
This is the problem Dunt finds so infuriating: not the concept of Britain leaving the EU in general, but the fact that it’s doing that so recklessly, so thoughtlessly, in a maelstrom of jingoistic tub-thumping and blind nostalgia for the British glory of a forgotten age. And, worse, that this shortsighted nationalism has infected the very highest level of politics. The book’s epigraph is a quote from Michael Gove:
“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms, saying they know what’s best and consistently getting it wrong.”
Michael Gove
Justice Secretary
Sky News, 3 June 2016*
*When told that the leaders of the US, China, India, Australia, the bank of England, the IMF, the IFS, the CBI, five former NATO Secretary-Generals, the chief executive of the NHS and most of Britain’s trade unions opposed Britain leaving the EU.
Foreign readers may not find Brexit particularly compelling reading; I’m Australian, but I care about politics, I lived in Britain for a year and I still have a job which means I need to watch a lot of BBC and Sky. (On a side note, as an Australian, the Remainer assumption that the UK can just turn around and find all the old countries of the Commonwealth waiting for it is hilarious. Nations don’t have friends, they have interests, and they also have their own scheming politicians and hysterical tabloids.) I also think the world’s fifth-largest economy cutting off its nose to spite its face will ultimately affect all of us. But the reason I think Dunt’s book is worthwhile reading no matter where you live is because it touches on that nerve of modern ignorance: the insidious influence of populist politics and the dismissal of people who actually know what the fuck they’re talking about. The most obvious example of this is Trump, but you can see it everywhere, as Facebook echo chambers slowly replace actual news and opinion from measured, intelligent sources. A few years ago I started working for a news network and was subject to countless hours of vox populi, and the inane, pig-headed, simple-minded nonsense that spouts from the mouth of the man on the Manly ferry when you put a microphone in front of him slowly eroded any respect I ever had for the intelligence of the common citizen. I try to avoid using the word stupid – many of these people are mechanics and doctors and engineers and environmental scientists, all of their heads swimming with skills and abilities I could never have. But they're ignorant. Everybody is ignorant of something, and nearly all of us are ignorant of EU political relationships and trade law. So putting a loosely-worded referendum to the entire populace, after years and years of tabloid propaganda, purely as a domestic political move to placate the right wing of your own party, arrogantly assuming you’ll easily win – was that maybe a stupid thing to do, Dave?
A lot of people, particularly Remainers, assume it will be no big deal. They are going to be painfully proven wrong. What we’re going to see is millions of EU citizens in the UK now living in fear of deportation, every British citizen being stripped of their EU citizenship rights, the jeopardisation of decades of peace in Northern Ireland with the possibility of the return of a hard border (astoundingly, David Davis seemed to believe in one interview that the Republic of Ireland is part of the UK), a second Scottish independence referendum, and a volatile economy and weak pound for a decade to come. But I’m sure it will be worth it for English people to get their bendy bananas back.
I’m clearly a tad more partisan about this than Dunt. But as I said, it’s not really Brexit itself: it’s the worrying trend of abandoning facts, reason and logic and replacing them with sloganeering and feelgood fantasies. It’s about understanding exactly what it is you’re tinkering with before you rip it apart (see also: the “Washington establishment”). I can guarantee you that the vast majority of Leave voters - and Remain voters, for that matter - and even the vast majority of the British Parliament would be unaware of the problems examined in this book, even now, nine months after the referendum. For those of us outside Europe, this is worthwhile reading. For those poor sods in Britain it’s essential.
March 20, 2019
A useful guide that every UK voter should read
Despite the title, this isn't simply a set of predictions. The book has useful facts about history and current events, e.g. the difference between the single market and the customs union, and the structure of the EU (commission, parliament, and council).
The author acknowledges that the EU isn't perfect, and that some people have valid concerns (e.g. a UK business which only has local customers might not see the need to conform to EU standards). However, he also talks about the logistical challenge of separating the UK from the EU, e.g. training enough vets to supervise animal deaths in abattoirs.
As I write this (9 days before the agreed exit date!), it's still anyone's guess what will happen. However, this gives some idea of the possibilities.
Despite the title, this isn't simply a set of predictions. The book has useful facts about history and current events, e.g. the difference between the single market and the customs union, and the structure of the EU (commission, parliament, and council).
The author acknowledges that the EU isn't perfect, and that some people have valid concerns (e.g. a UK business which only has local customers might not see the need to conform to EU standards). However, he also talks about the logistical challenge of separating the UK from the EU, e.g. training enough vets to supervise animal deaths in abattoirs.
As I write this (9 days before the agreed exit date!), it's still anyone's guess what will happen. However, this gives some idea of the possibilities.
October 9, 2018
Very well researched, which unfortunately makes for difficult reading. Trying to understand all the different pieces for Brexit is incredibly difficult, it might just be the most complicated set of negotiations in history (certainly for an incredibly long time), which doesn't bode well at all for an unprepared nation... not sure this book so much educates one self for arguments on the topic, more like educates one self enough to know that no-one you talk to will know what they're talking about. Terrifying.
December 27, 2019
Theresa Reintke, a German politician and member of the European Parliament, while waxing eloquent at the conclusion of the European Council meeting held on the 17th and 18th October, 2019, over the current shambolic state of affairs in the United Kingdom, said, “The EU is not tired of the UK. The EU is not tired of the British people. We are simply tired of Prime Ministers who don’t understand that if they don’t get their deal through Parliament they should put it back to the people.” The latest Prime Minister to have the metaphorical egg slapped on his face is the intransigent and remorseless Boris Johnson, whose party failed to defeat an amendment, to delay approval of the UK Prime Minister’s departure deal from the European Union. Popularly known as the Letwin Amendment – named after Sir Oliver Letwin, a British politician who has served as the Member of Parliament for West Dorset since 1997 – this amendment was passed 322 – 306. As a consequence, the confusion surrounding the entire Brexit charade has become even more confounding. A vacuous and uncertain future has gripped the people of United Kingdom in a vice like grip. “What happens next” is the universal conundrum escaping the lips of millions of hapless and helpless souls, who are being held ransom to the self-serving interests of a band of obnoxious politicians.
The question of what happens after Brexit was in fact answered in a brilliantly lucid fashion by Ian Dunt, the editor of Politics.co.uk in his marvelous book, “Brexit: What the Hell Happens Now?” The reference to the word hell in the title of Mr. Dunt’s book could have been neither aberration nor accident. For as he assiduously points out, by voting to leave the European Union in a referendum initiated by a complacent and, to an extent, naive David Cameron, the United Kingdom has chosen a hellacious path to tread. On the 23 June 2016, voters in the UK were posed the existential question: ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union.’ The results were: Remain 16,141,241 (48.1%) Leave 17,410,742 (51.9%). While the Brexiters, of the likes of Liam Fox, David Davis, Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees-Mogg were besides themselves with glee at the stupefying decision made by the voters, the Leave campaigners, “misunderstood the EU, misunderstood Article 50, misunderstood the WTO, misunderstood the economy and misunderstood the legal framework in which they must now operate.”
As Mr. Dunt articulates, the very edifice of the Leave campaign was based on a farrago of fictitious provocation, masquerading as justifiable truths. A bus campaign where a misleading slogan, ‘We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead’, was painted on its sides; rhetorical jeremiads for a points-based system of immigration, and similar preposterous stuff jousted with a lackadaisical opposition which was astonishingly bereft of ideas. Echo chambers were thus perpetuated and information bubbles manufactured which ultimately led to people placing emotion over reason.
Mr. Dunt, in his extremely readable book, takes unsuspecting readers through the Gordian Knot of Brexit and solves the seemingly intractable puzzle, all the while employing language that is simple, easy to understand and most critically, retain. So here are a few key takeaways from Mr. Dunt’s exemplary book:
ARTICLE 50 IS A DECEPTIVE CREATURE
Theresa May activated Article 50 – the European Union rule that must be invoked by any country wishing to leave – on 29 March 2017. Article 50 is very short. As Mr. Dunt illustrates in a chilling fashion, the creator of the Article, the former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato exclaimed after the Brexit referendum, ‘I wrote Article 50, so I know it well. My intention was that it should be a classic safety valve that was there but never used.’ Choosing to be flamboyantly colloquial, Mr. Amato added for good measure, that if another leader ‘is as mad as Cameron’ and offers a referendum on leaving the EU, Amato warned, they should know that: ‘When it comes to the economy, they have to lose.’ As Mr. Dunt points out, the United Kingdom must comply with administrative, legal and trade Brexits to extricate itself fully from the European Union. A task easier said than done.
LOSING THE SINGLE MARKET
At the heart of the European Union, lies the quintessential philosophy of a Single Market, within whose confines is enshrined the principles of freedom of movement, goods, services and people. Devoid of the bane of tariffs, these principles provide an element of certainty for the members of the Union in so far as trade is concerned. In one fell swoop, UK has deprived itself of the benefits conferred by the Single Market. Further, as Mr. Dunt, elucidates, “It is likely to lose it with many of the countries that trade with Europe. The EU has these agreements with Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, the United States and Switzerland. When Brexiters say that they want to leave Europe to trade with the rest of the world, they fail to realise that leaving Europe is an obstacle to trading with the rest of the world.”
UK CANNOT HAVE THE CAKE & EAT IT TOO
The Brexiteers while nursing a grouse against the Freedom of Movement, seem to possess enough alacrity to still long for the Single Market benefits. However as could be expected, the EU is vehement in its assertion that there will be no compromise on freedom of movement. Jean-Claude Juncker said there would be no ‘nuances’ for the UK. A statement released by the 27 remaining European leaders stressed that access to the single market ‘requires acceptance of all four freedoms’. Angela Merkel told the German parliament: ‘If you wish to have free access to the single market then you have to accept the fundamental European rights.’ The then French President Francois Hollande stated: ‘There cannot be freedom of movement of goods, free movement of capital, free movement of services if there isn’t a free movement of people.’
COUNTRY TEMPLATES – NORWAY
Even though not a member of the EU, Norway, along with Lichtenstein, and Iceland are members of a wider European Economic Area (“EEA”), that enables them to enjoy the benefits of free trade. If the UK is looking to emulate the Norway Model, it needs to understand the nuances that separate Norway from itself. Using a clever set of tactics, “Norway goes above the head of the EU, to the global regulatory plane and influences standards there. These standards then float down to the EU level. A classic example is the Fish and Fisheries Product Committee of the Codex Alimentarius, whose Chairman is Bjorn Knudtsen, a Norwegian. The UK however enjoys no such privileges.
PITFALLS OF LEAVING THE CUSTOMS UNION
As Mr. Dunt illustrates, ‘Raoul Ruparel, who was hired by David Davis to provide expertise on the Brexit process, has admitted that leaving the customs union would reduce GDP by between 1 and 1.2% in the long term and cost the UK economy £25 billion a year. Other studies expect the hit to GDP to reach 4.5% by 2030. This is because leaving the customs union opens a Pandora’s Box of bureaucratic horror.’
KEEPING THE UNITED KINGDOM INTACT
It needs to be reiterated in no uncertain terms that Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by 62% and 55% respectively to stay in the EU. With such a resounding and decisive mandate, it is ambiguous as to whether the existing constitutional arrangements binding the two countries with the UK can survive contact with the EU machine.
GRAPPLING WITH THE WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION
Once the UK manages to successfully extricate itself from the EU, it may find itself making the proverbial transition from the frying pan, into the fire. The WTO can be a raging cauldron where as Mr. Dunt informs his readers, ‘each and every member can trigger a trade dispute against you. To join it, Britain must conduct some of the most technical, complicated and unprecedented trade negotiations in history.’
LACK OF PURPOSE, TRANSPARENCY & VISION
The transitional period since the triggering of Article 50 has been mired in confusion, shrouded by deception and characterized by an absolute lack of cohesiveness and purpose. This unfortunate fact is illustrated superbly by Mr. Dunt. ‘The International Trade Secretary Liam Fox started by promising to obtain trade deals with the rest of the world while his colleagues secured an agreement with the EU. In July 2016, he told The Sunday Times that ‘about a dozen free trade deals outside the EU’ would be ‘ready for when we leave’. There was, of course, a problem: Britain could not negotiate or sign a trade deal while a member of the EU. Even if this hadn’t been illegal, it would have been illogical. Potential trading partners didn’t want to negotiate a trade deal with the UK until they could see what its relationship would be with the single market.’ An absolute farce!
THE IMMIGRATION FACTOR
The vicious spiel concocted by the advocates for Leaving on the subject of immigration, has led to a virtual paranoia, which partly was responsible for the Brexit verdict. Mr. Dunt hits the nail on the head when he argues that for the development of the economy, immigration is an absolute key. ‘Immigrants are useful in two respects, economically speaking. Firstly, in general someone else has already paid for their education and training. Those who arrived between 2001 and 2011, for instance, endowed the UK with productive human capital that would have cost it £6.8 billion in education spending. Secondly, they often leave to go back home when they’ve finished working, meaning even later life costs are sometimes avoided.’ Alas, when everything looks like a nail, the viewer has to go about his work with a hammer.
NIGHTMARE OF REPLICATION
The EU is an incredibly smooth machine whose working is lubricated by the grease of structured components. Every Regulatory Function has its own agency manned by people possessing the requisite expertise. Britain, once it is out of the EU must endeavor to replicate the same set of supremely efficient regulatory systems. The almost insurmountable nature of this exercise is revealed by Mr. Dunt, when he sets out an illustrative list of agencies whose workings would need to be mirrored:
European Court of Auditors;
European Data Protection Supervisor Education;
Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency;
Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Businesses Innovation and Networks;
Executive Agency European Research Council;
European Agency for Safety and Health at Work;
European Aviation Safety Agency;
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control;
European Fisheries Control Agency;
European Food Safety Authority;
European Maritime Safety Agency;
European Railway Agency;
Office for the Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communication;
European Union Statistical Office of the European Communities.
One element, of which Britain finds itself absolutely shorn of, is time. With a jaw dropping string of legal, administrative and trade compliance, matched by a disproportionate lack of expertise, Britain finds itself at the cross roads. With a united and unrelenting EU refusing to either accord or accommodate, the UK finds itself in a bind. At the time of this writing, the policy mavens have issued a dense ‘Withdrawal Amendment Bill’ that is couched in extraordinarily complex language and adorned by the calisthenics of a convoluted and complex language.
The only way out for the UK perhaps might not be either the Single Market or the Customs Union or even the European Economic Area, but Theresa Reitke’s Second Referendum.
The question of what happens after Brexit was in fact answered in a brilliantly lucid fashion by Ian Dunt, the editor of Politics.co.uk in his marvelous book, “Brexit: What the Hell Happens Now?” The reference to the word hell in the title of Mr. Dunt’s book could have been neither aberration nor accident. For as he assiduously points out, by voting to leave the European Union in a referendum initiated by a complacent and, to an extent, naive David Cameron, the United Kingdom has chosen a hellacious path to tread. On the 23 June 2016, voters in the UK were posed the existential question: ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union.’ The results were: Remain 16,141,241 (48.1%) Leave 17,410,742 (51.9%). While the Brexiters, of the likes of Liam Fox, David Davis, Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees-Mogg were besides themselves with glee at the stupefying decision made by the voters, the Leave campaigners, “misunderstood the EU, misunderstood Article 50, misunderstood the WTO, misunderstood the economy and misunderstood the legal framework in which they must now operate.”
As Mr. Dunt articulates, the very edifice of the Leave campaign was based on a farrago of fictitious provocation, masquerading as justifiable truths. A bus campaign where a misleading slogan, ‘We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead’, was painted on its sides; rhetorical jeremiads for a points-based system of immigration, and similar preposterous stuff jousted with a lackadaisical opposition which was astonishingly bereft of ideas. Echo chambers were thus perpetuated and information bubbles manufactured which ultimately led to people placing emotion over reason.
Mr. Dunt, in his extremely readable book, takes unsuspecting readers through the Gordian Knot of Brexit and solves the seemingly intractable puzzle, all the while employing language that is simple, easy to understand and most critically, retain. So here are a few key takeaways from Mr. Dunt’s exemplary book:
ARTICLE 50 IS A DECEPTIVE CREATURE
Theresa May activated Article 50 – the European Union rule that must be invoked by any country wishing to leave – on 29 March 2017. Article 50 is very short. As Mr. Dunt illustrates in a chilling fashion, the creator of the Article, the former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato exclaimed after the Brexit referendum, ‘I wrote Article 50, so I know it well. My intention was that it should be a classic safety valve that was there but never used.’ Choosing to be flamboyantly colloquial, Mr. Amato added for good measure, that if another leader ‘is as mad as Cameron’ and offers a referendum on leaving the EU, Amato warned, they should know that: ‘When it comes to the economy, they have to lose.’ As Mr. Dunt points out, the United Kingdom must comply with administrative, legal and trade Brexits to extricate itself fully from the European Union. A task easier said than done.
LOSING THE SINGLE MARKET
At the heart of the European Union, lies the quintessential philosophy of a Single Market, within whose confines is enshrined the principles of freedom of movement, goods, services and people. Devoid of the bane of tariffs, these principles provide an element of certainty for the members of the Union in so far as trade is concerned. In one fell swoop, UK has deprived itself of the benefits conferred by the Single Market. Further, as Mr. Dunt, elucidates, “It is likely to lose it with many of the countries that trade with Europe. The EU has these agreements with Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, the United States and Switzerland. When Brexiters say that they want to leave Europe to trade with the rest of the world, they fail to realise that leaving Europe is an obstacle to trading with the rest of the world.”
UK CANNOT HAVE THE CAKE & EAT IT TOO
The Brexiteers while nursing a grouse against the Freedom of Movement, seem to possess enough alacrity to still long for the Single Market benefits. However as could be expected, the EU is vehement in its assertion that there will be no compromise on freedom of movement. Jean-Claude Juncker said there would be no ‘nuances’ for the UK. A statement released by the 27 remaining European leaders stressed that access to the single market ‘requires acceptance of all four freedoms’. Angela Merkel told the German parliament: ‘If you wish to have free access to the single market then you have to accept the fundamental European rights.’ The then French President Francois Hollande stated: ‘There cannot be freedom of movement of goods, free movement of capital, free movement of services if there isn’t a free movement of people.’
COUNTRY TEMPLATES – NORWAY
Even though not a member of the EU, Norway, along with Lichtenstein, and Iceland are members of a wider European Economic Area (“EEA”), that enables them to enjoy the benefits of free trade. If the UK is looking to emulate the Norway Model, it needs to understand the nuances that separate Norway from itself. Using a clever set of tactics, “Norway goes above the head of the EU, to the global regulatory plane and influences standards there. These standards then float down to the EU level. A classic example is the Fish and Fisheries Product Committee of the Codex Alimentarius, whose Chairman is Bjorn Knudtsen, a Norwegian. The UK however enjoys no such privileges.
PITFALLS OF LEAVING THE CUSTOMS UNION
As Mr. Dunt illustrates, ‘Raoul Ruparel, who was hired by David Davis to provide expertise on the Brexit process, has admitted that leaving the customs union would reduce GDP by between 1 and 1.2% in the long term and cost the UK economy £25 billion a year. Other studies expect the hit to GDP to reach 4.5% by 2030. This is because leaving the customs union opens a Pandora’s Box of bureaucratic horror.’
KEEPING THE UNITED KINGDOM INTACT
It needs to be reiterated in no uncertain terms that Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by 62% and 55% respectively to stay in the EU. With such a resounding and decisive mandate, it is ambiguous as to whether the existing constitutional arrangements binding the two countries with the UK can survive contact with the EU machine.
GRAPPLING WITH THE WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION
Once the UK manages to successfully extricate itself from the EU, it may find itself making the proverbial transition from the frying pan, into the fire. The WTO can be a raging cauldron where as Mr. Dunt informs his readers, ‘each and every member can trigger a trade dispute against you. To join it, Britain must conduct some of the most technical, complicated and unprecedented trade negotiations in history.’
LACK OF PURPOSE, TRANSPARENCY & VISION
The transitional period since the triggering of Article 50 has been mired in confusion, shrouded by deception and characterized by an absolute lack of cohesiveness and purpose. This unfortunate fact is illustrated superbly by Mr. Dunt. ‘The International Trade Secretary Liam Fox started by promising to obtain trade deals with the rest of the world while his colleagues secured an agreement with the EU. In July 2016, he told The Sunday Times that ‘about a dozen free trade deals outside the EU’ would be ‘ready for when we leave’. There was, of course, a problem: Britain could not negotiate or sign a trade deal while a member of the EU. Even if this hadn’t been illegal, it would have been illogical. Potential trading partners didn’t want to negotiate a trade deal with the UK until they could see what its relationship would be with the single market.’ An absolute farce!
THE IMMIGRATION FACTOR
The vicious spiel concocted by the advocates for Leaving on the subject of immigration, has led to a virtual paranoia, which partly was responsible for the Brexit verdict. Mr. Dunt hits the nail on the head when he argues that for the development of the economy, immigration is an absolute key. ‘Immigrants are useful in two respects, economically speaking. Firstly, in general someone else has already paid for their education and training. Those who arrived between 2001 and 2011, for instance, endowed the UK with productive human capital that would have cost it £6.8 billion in education spending. Secondly, they often leave to go back home when they’ve finished working, meaning even later life costs are sometimes avoided.’ Alas, when everything looks like a nail, the viewer has to go about his work with a hammer.
NIGHTMARE OF REPLICATION
The EU is an incredibly smooth machine whose working is lubricated by the grease of structured components. Every Regulatory Function has its own agency manned by people possessing the requisite expertise. Britain, once it is out of the EU must endeavor to replicate the same set of supremely efficient regulatory systems. The almost insurmountable nature of this exercise is revealed by Mr. Dunt, when he sets out an illustrative list of agencies whose workings would need to be mirrored:
European Court of Auditors;
European Data Protection Supervisor Education;
Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency;
Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Businesses Innovation and Networks;
Executive Agency European Research Council;
European Agency for Safety and Health at Work;
European Aviation Safety Agency;
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control;
European Fisheries Control Agency;
European Food Safety Authority;
European Maritime Safety Agency;
European Railway Agency;
Office for the Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communication;
European Union Statistical Office of the European Communities.
One element, of which Britain finds itself absolutely shorn of, is time. With a jaw dropping string of legal, administrative and trade compliance, matched by a disproportionate lack of expertise, Britain finds itself at the cross roads. With a united and unrelenting EU refusing to either accord or accommodate, the UK finds itself in a bind. At the time of this writing, the policy mavens have issued a dense ‘Withdrawal Amendment Bill’ that is couched in extraordinarily complex language and adorned by the calisthenics of a convoluted and complex language.
The only way out for the UK perhaps might not be either the Single Market or the Customs Union or even the European Economic Area, but Theresa Reitke’s Second Referendum.
July 13, 2017
What the Hell Happened to professional independent journalism?
Lets not pretend that this is a book genuinely setting out options, benefits and negatives of the UK taking a more international (hard/clean), or European (soft/messy) exit. I had hoped to learn something and was very disappointed with the alarmist nonsense.
Ian Dunt the Political Editor of Erotic Review, sets out lashings of punishment for the UK at every turn, while projecting the EU as a friendly professional club keen to work with other countries in Europe productively.
Sure, those that already decided that "leaving the EU will be the end of the world as we know it" over a year ago, will enjoy reading a book which informs them "they were right all along".
The book reads poorly due to its lack of independence and obvious extremist pro-European agenda means it reads more like a political paper. It fundamentally fails to consider that the world is changing, to be more global and that the UK can only succeed if it refocuses on the growing international markets (China/India/Africa, etc) and not holding us back to a rapidly shrinking debt filled EU market.
"Goods will be held up at ports with mountains of paperwork". What utter rubbish. Both the EU and UK scrapped such paperwork systems years ago. Quarterly electronic submissions, just like is done for VAT and other taxes as now.
In the end the EU will do a deal, not because it wants to help the UK, but because they have a lot to loose if they don't. Sure there will be those at the extreme bullying end of the EU who what to punish - Greek style - any European peoples who do not follow their demands. To set an example against those who want freedom, tolerance of difference and democracy to be returned to people across Europe. The problem is that the views of Europeans in the UK are the same shared across the whole EU, where the EU has transformed from the solution, to the problem.
Lets not pretend that this is a book genuinely setting out options, benefits and negatives of the UK taking a more international (hard/clean), or European (soft/messy) exit. I had hoped to learn something and was very disappointed with the alarmist nonsense.
Ian Dunt the Political Editor of Erotic Review, sets out lashings of punishment for the UK at every turn, while projecting the EU as a friendly professional club keen to work with other countries in Europe productively.
Sure, those that already decided that "leaving the EU will be the end of the world as we know it" over a year ago, will enjoy reading a book which informs them "they were right all along".
The book reads poorly due to its lack of independence and obvious extremist pro-European agenda means it reads more like a political paper. It fundamentally fails to consider that the world is changing, to be more global and that the UK can only succeed if it refocuses on the growing international markets (China/India/Africa, etc) and not holding us back to a rapidly shrinking debt filled EU market.
"Goods will be held up at ports with mountains of paperwork". What utter rubbish. Both the EU and UK scrapped such paperwork systems years ago. Quarterly electronic submissions, just like is done for VAT and other taxes as now.
In the end the EU will do a deal, not because it wants to help the UK, but because they have a lot to loose if they don't. Sure there will be those at the extreme bullying end of the EU who what to punish - Greek style - any European peoples who do not follow their demands. To set an example against those who want freedom, tolerance of difference and democracy to be returned to people across Europe. The problem is that the views of Europeans in the UK are the same shared across the whole EU, where the EU has transformed from the solution, to the problem.
September 7, 2019
A friend of mine told me when she saw me reading this book: "You'd better watch the news since current affairs like Brexit change day by day". She's got her point, but as an individual who's new to politics and has not followed the Brexit headlines too closely, I deem this one as a great foundation to visualize the big picture of Brexit in mind.
Ian Dunt has done wonders in explaining a massive and complex topic like Brexit, starting from the simplest terms. The author was able to lay all the options that Britain's got in hand on the table, to assess them one by one with a fair tone, although at parts he showed clear disappointment towards Brexit ministers.
I learnt a lot about EU's immensely complicated structure from this work as well.
Here's a passage that I really like from the postscript:
"Sovereignty is a fine and decent value to pursue in international relations. (...) But absolute sovereignty is a fantasy. The only absolute sovereignty available in the world is the North Korea model of total isolation. Outside of that, we must make compromises in order to cooperate with other countries for our mutual advantage. Sometimes these take the form of shared global standards, intelligence sharing or a court governing a single market."
Ian Dunt has done wonders in explaining a massive and complex topic like Brexit, starting from the simplest terms. The author was able to lay all the options that Britain's got in hand on the table, to assess them one by one with a fair tone, although at parts he showed clear disappointment towards Brexit ministers.
I learnt a lot about EU's immensely complicated structure from this work as well.
Here's a passage that I really like from the postscript:
"Sovereignty is a fine and decent value to pursue in international relations. (...) But absolute sovereignty is a fantasy. The only absolute sovereignty available in the world is the North Korea model of total isolation. Outside of that, we must make compromises in order to cooperate with other countries for our mutual advantage. Sometimes these take the form of shared global standards, intelligence sharing or a court governing a single market."
October 11, 2017
Very good introduction to the issues surrounding Brexit and probably the best single-volume tome available at the moment. Written before the last general election and in mid-2016 it is nonetheless very firm in its grasp of the challenges and obstacles facing a smooth exit from the EU and holds up relatively well.
Despite being a staunch Remainer, Dunt is remarkably fair in his assessment of the EU with its weaknesses and structural limitations and doesn't display any of the rosy romanticism that often characterises supporters of the institution and the Remain camp. He however, combines this with a clear-eyed assessment of the costs of leaving the EU and why this would be undesirable. The critique of the level of unpreparedness by the current govt, ministers and Leave ideologues is stunning as well as forensic in its sharpness. Whatever else, the current strategy and set of policymakers and politicians handling this massively important political and economic rupture are not the right people for the job.
Despite being a staunch Remainer, Dunt is remarkably fair in his assessment of the EU with its weaknesses and structural limitations and doesn't display any of the rosy romanticism that often characterises supporters of the institution and the Remain camp. He however, combines this with a clear-eyed assessment of the costs of leaving the EU and why this would be undesirable. The critique of the level of unpreparedness by the current govt, ministers and Leave ideologues is stunning as well as forensic in its sharpness. Whatever else, the current strategy and set of policymakers and politicians handling this massively important political and economic rupture are not the right people for the job.
January 25, 2023
This short but informative book amusingly highlights how much of an own goal Brexit was. Brexit has effectively kneecapped the British economy and will not result in the sought after sovereignty and wonderous free-trade deals that was promised by the leave campaigners.
The following quote from the author sums up the situation nicely: 'The idea that Britain has grown stronger by leaving the EU will be seen as a bad joke when it is being bounced from pillar to post by bigger negotiating parties. Any notion that control has been taken back will seem absurd. Sovereignty will pass from Brussels, over the heads of the British people, into the negotiating rooms of Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi.'
Noting the book was published in 2016, the author convincingly sets out how unprepared and misinformed the British people and government are about how to implement Brexit. This is a somewhat amusing and painful read, in the same way that watching a teenage boy kick a ball into his own face is somewhat amusing and painful to watch.
The following quote from the author sums up the situation nicely: 'The idea that Britain has grown stronger by leaving the EU will be seen as a bad joke when it is being bounced from pillar to post by bigger negotiating parties. Any notion that control has been taken back will seem absurd. Sovereignty will pass from Brussels, over the heads of the British people, into the negotiating rooms of Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi.'
Noting the book was published in 2016, the author convincingly sets out how unprepared and misinformed the British people and government are about how to implement Brexit. This is a somewhat amusing and painful read, in the same way that watching a teenage boy kick a ball into his own face is somewhat amusing and painful to watch.
May 19, 2019
I got around to this book a bit late, considering it was published back in 2016 and multiple developments have already ensued, along with constant changes in the dramatic political scenario it tries to laconically analyse.
I wouldn't say it contains exactly all you need, or even better, needed to know back in 2016 at the height of post-referendum bewilderment and divisiveness, but it indeed serves well its role in warning a largely ignorant electorate, which I suspect will never access books of the sort, about the dire consequences of their ill-advised vote.
Even if you're reading this well into the future in book terms, and you're already familiar with the employed terms and has been following news religiously over the past 3 or so years, you will find this a quite surprisingly quick and handy read.
I wouldn't say it contains exactly all you need, or even better, needed to know back in 2016 at the height of post-referendum bewilderment and divisiveness, but it indeed serves well its role in warning a largely ignorant electorate, which I suspect will never access books of the sort, about the dire consequences of their ill-advised vote.
Even if you're reading this well into the future in book terms, and you're already familiar with the employed terms and has been following news religiously over the past 3 or so years, you will find this a quite surprisingly quick and handy read.
October 8, 2019
I follow Ian Dunt on Twitter and enjoy the way he writes (specifically about Brexit) with a scathing wit, so I thought I'd pick up this book.
Unfortunately little of that wit was on display here but it was a richer and more educational read than I expected - so I still really enjoyed it.
Dunt does a fine job of explaining this mess and, whilst I suspect he is against Brexit at heart, remaining seemingly impartial. Indeed there were whole chapters that painstakingly added clarity to the mess of Brexit - the chapter on the effects on the rest of the union was particularly interesting and the chapter on the negotiations and the negotiators (with hindsight) was eerily prophetic.
Yes, a fine book for anyone wanted to know more about the clusterfuck we call Brexit.
Unfortunately little of that wit was on display here but it was a richer and more educational read than I expected - so I still really enjoyed it.
Dunt does a fine job of explaining this mess and, whilst I suspect he is against Brexit at heart, remaining seemingly impartial. Indeed there were whole chapters that painstakingly added clarity to the mess of Brexit - the chapter on the effects on the rest of the union was particularly interesting and the chapter on the negotiations and the negotiators (with hindsight) was eerily prophetic.
Yes, a fine book for anyone wanted to know more about the clusterfuck we call Brexit.
December 1, 2018
Definitely one of the better books out there which examines the impact Brexit will have on the United Kingdom. First published in 2017, a lot of Dunt’s predictions may have seemed like hysterical scaremongering at the time, but as the talks have gone on since, some of it made for an overly optimistic read.
Dunt’s writing is accessible and manages to keep from editorialising for the most part. Would recommend to someone who doesn’t really follow politics but wants a better understanding of the bearing Brexit will have.
With kind thanks to Netgalley and the publisher.
Dunt’s writing is accessible and manages to keep from editorialising for the most part. Would recommend to someone who doesn’t really follow politics but wants a better understanding of the bearing Brexit will have.
With kind thanks to Netgalley and the publisher.
December 19, 2018
I couldn't be more depressed. Is it a spoiler to say, we're really fucking screwed?
This is an amazing endeavour that explains the intricate details that are going to really screw us over with remarkable clarity and restraint. How Ian Dunt didn't finish every chapter with an outburst of frustration at the lunacy of it all I don't know.
This is one of those books that I really wish had a campaign to send it to every member of parliament.
In summary my generalised anxiety is now much more specific, and has intensified and metastasized.
This is an amazing endeavour that explains the intricate details that are going to really screw us over with remarkable clarity and restraint. How Ian Dunt didn't finish every chapter with an outburst of frustration at the lunacy of it all I don't know.
This is one of those books that I really wish had a campaign to send it to every member of parliament.
In summary my generalised anxiety is now much more specific, and has intensified and metastasized.
February 27, 2017
Excellent summation of the options available to the UK post EU membership. It was extremely easy to read for such an important and pressing matter. Easy to read in one sitting. For anyone needing to weigh up their options regarding their future in the UK I can't stress enough how important this book is for getting a sober and clear economic perspective on a matter currently dominated by emotive nationalist jingoism.
September 1, 2018
This is going to be messy.
The sad thing is that it would have been possible - not wise, but feasible - for Britain to leave the EU relatively successfully, given enough time, planning, resources, and clarity of goals. And common-sense, of course. Sadly, none of these were present; instead a frustrated electorate were sold a bunch of lies. The result is probably going to be horrible, especially for the most vulnerable in society.
The sad thing is that it would have been possible - not wise, but feasible - for Britain to leave the EU relatively successfully, given enough time, planning, resources, and clarity of goals. And common-sense, of course. Sadly, none of these were present; instead a frustrated electorate were sold a bunch of lies. The result is probably going to be horrible, especially for the most vulnerable in society.
September 6, 2019
Sometimes there are issues of such complexity that a layperson, especially one residing a fair distance from the "action", with an abiding interest may find it daunting to fully understand the gist. Thankfully for those of us unfamiliar with UK's seemingly semi-tumultuous relationship with EU, Mr. Dunt has reduced the seemingly irreducible into a clear & accessible read. On a more lighter note, British civil servants looking for a horror read should look no further than this.
January 28, 2017
Possibly the scariest book I've read this year! This is a really good insight into the reality not so much of Brexit but of Brexit negotiations. Whilst the writer is clearly a remainer, the facts/realities are presented in as much of an unbiased manner as can be mustered for such an emotional subject.
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