John Kay is a British economist who once taught economics at Oxford and is now a professor at the London Business School and an editorial contributor to the Financial Times. His 2015 book Other People’s Money should be added to the long and sagging bookshelf on how the nature of the financial services industry (here denoted FSI, and including both commercial banking and shadow banking institutions) has been perverted from its original mission to its present sad state as a source of great benefits to the managers and correspondingly great costs to clients, and on the consequences of this transition for income distribution and economic stability.
This is a well-written and thoroughly researched book. As I read the book I found myself asking, “Why doesn’t Kay mention this?” And then he does! To my mind, this is as thorough a book on the topic as I’ve read. While there is little “new” in it, it accurately details the long list of successes and failures in our modern financial system. It is an excellent synthesis of ideas that have been discussed since the 2008-9 debacle, and to my mind, it asks the right questions. The only areas in which I have much to add are the prospective questions about the future—what should be done about our problematic financial system.
What Went Wrong? Part I Financialization
Kay puts many of our problems at the doorstep of financialization, by which he means converting all characteristics of a relationship to a financial calculation. One form of financialization is rejecting the age-old idea that the proper objective of a business is to maintain a relationship among several constituencies or stakeholders (shareholders, management, labor, suppliers, customers) in favor of one stakeholder: the shareholder. This conversion began with the ascendency of the idea that the function of a business is to create value-added for the shareholder—the provider of capital. This shift was made with the blessing of the economics profession; many (but not all) economists argued that maximizing the value for the shareholder also maximized the welfare of society. The interests of labor and other stakeholders were subordinated to those of the shareholder.
Another form of financialization was the reduction of risks to a financial basis and the creation markets to trade risk. As will be detailed below, the business model of banks and other financial institutions changed from originating loans and holding them to maturity to simply originating the loans, then selling them to other institutions. Thus, the risks were sold off and the originating institution simply serviced the loan—collecting interest and dividends and paying those (less a fee) out to the new holders of the loan. This created a new primary profit center for banks and other institutions—the trading desk.
What Went Wrong? Part II: Trading and Risk-Shifting
Kay traces the recent financial crisis to a series of incentive failures, that is, rewards to the FSI for doing the wrong things. To focus the discussion, Kay asks why the top people in the FSI (the owners and managers) make so much money. He correctly notes that most of this money is not made in financing “real” trade or business activity; it is in trading fundamental securities (stock and bonds) and in creating, selling, and trading derivative securities like credit default swaps, term structure swaps, equity swaps, collateralized debt obligations, mortgage-backed securities, options, and financial futures.
In the good old days, a manufacturer wanting to build a factory would sell securities (stocks and bonds) through an investment bank to acquire the necessary funds. The investment bank, a member of the FSI, would sell the securities to ultimate investors—primarily wealthy individuals, insurance companies, and personal trusts; later on, new financial institutions like pension funds were added to the list. Bonds were often held to maturity, and stocks might be inherited over several generations. Secondary markets were limited except for government securities and some private securities (mostly railroad and other infrastructure bonds). Trading was not a source of much value added beyond the revenues received to cover the costs of trading.
But over time, and particularly with the rise of computer technology, the potential for low-cost and frequent trading increased, and institutions rose to serve the trading community. The secondary markets expanded to feed the traders, both private and quasi-public (like Fannie Mae and Ginny Mae in the mortgage markets). New trading-oriented institutions like mutual funds and ETFs developed and grew. These new members of the FSI served an important need: they provided liquidity—the ability to quickly find someone on the other side of a trade—and they allocated securities to the investors that valued them most. These innovations reduced the cost of capital for real businesses, increased the capital intensity of production, and raised labor productivity and wages.
By the 1990s we had a very different FSI. The securities sold by the factory-building business were still sold by investment banks and bought by the FSI, but the modern FSI is a trading organization, not a financing organization. At its trading desks all publicly registered securities are actively traded—the securities originated to build the factory are rapidly sold in a secondary market, a secondary market created just to allow those transactions. Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae provided a secondary market for mortgages—hence allowing the mortgage originators (commercial banks, thrift institutions, mortgage bankers) to profit from managing the accounting and payments associated with the mortgages without having the risk of holding them; the result was an explosion in mortgage lending. The rise of markets for derivative securities that provided ways of insuring (or taking) risks has allowed an explosion in that trading. The name of the game has been Shift the Risk, or, put more positively, allow risks to be held by the parties most suitable for holding them (the parties that will pay the most to take the risk).
Shift the Risk can be a win-win game if both the risk-seller and the risk buyer are equally knowledgeable—if buyers really know what they’re buying. Indeed, that was the pre-2008 foundation for the widespread view among economists that allowing parties to buy and sell risk was a good thing. After all, hadn’t we been doing that for centuries in property insurance? Thus, with the blessings of the economics and finance professions, the urging of the potential risk traders, and the accession of the regulators, the modern FSI created a dizzying array of derivative instruments—credit default swaps, term structure swaps, equity swaps, collateralized debt obligations, Special Interest Vehicles, options, futures and other derivative securities—all designed to redistribute the risks and returns from the original securities. To Shift the Risk we added Slice and Dice—the creation of security bundles like Collateralized Debt Obligations. And the attention of the FSI turned to trading as new types of FSI institutions grew up the buy the risks—hedge funds, ETFs and so on.
Trading in competitive markets—and the securities and derivatives markets are as competitive as you get—is a business with razor-thin profit margins. But thin margins can be leveraged into large profits when trading is frequent and in large denominations, and when trading costs are low. All of these were achieved in the security and derivatives markets. The huge amounts traded in today’s security markets, and the high frequency of trades, converted the Trading Desk from a ho-hum necessity to a major profit center. The profits accrue to the providers of the capital—the trading desk’s owners—and to the managers of the trading desk. They do not accrue to the lower-level workers—the accountants, the clerical staff, and the managers of the IT department.
Hence, the very high incomes earned by owners and senior management at FSI institutions. Since so many of the top earners are in the FSI, it is significant contributor to the widening of the income distribution in the U.S. and around the world. If the golden-age FSI had remained in place, the income distribution would look much less skewed toward the “one-percenters.”
What economic forces underlie the vast earnings of the FSI? At heart, the answer is investor ignorance at the retail level, stated differently, the assumption that creators and sellers of risk-sharing instruments are no more knowledgeable than the buyers is a sad fiction. Economists refer to this as asymmetric information. When one side of a trade knows more about the quality of the product than the other side, that information gives the “informed” trader an edge over the “naïve” trader: just as the used car salesman knows more than the buyer about the quality of car on his lot, so the creator of a Collateralized Debt Obligation knows more about the securities bundled into the CDO than the buyer. Under these circumstances, trading isn’t a “fair game”—the naïve party will give up much of the income to the informed party. The result is a shift in income distribution in favor of the better-informed parties, and a consequent incentive to increase the creation of confusing products to be traded. All the institutional changes in the FSI did was to put this truth on a higher playing field by allowing the trading mentality to flourish.
What to Do About It: Part I The Prospects for Regulation
The traditional answer to adverse incentives and misbehavior is regulation. But… the 1933 and 1934 Securities and Exchange Acts and subsequent legislation didn’t stop Bernie Madoff from scamming his clients for decades…the 1933 and 1934 Banking Act and subsequent legislation designed to prevent bank failures didn’t prevent an explosion of failures after 2008… the creation of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission in 1974 didn’t stop the collapse of markets related to derivative securities like swaps and options. And these massive failures are only extreme examples: there were many more examples of regulation failure, not least among them the deregulation of thrift institutions in the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 .
Why hasn’t regulation worked, and what are the prospects for the new Dodd-Frank regulation of banks and financial institutions? Here Kay strikes a very reasonable and realistic note. Regulation as it has been structured—a system of codified rules of behavior—is inherently ineffective. The primary visible consequence is the addition of new regulations when existing regulations fail to stop inappropriate behavior. Regulation is like the Ptolemaic theory of planetary motions: each time a new motion is observed—as in Mars’s occasional retrograde motion—the response is not to look for an entirely new model (as did Isaac Newton), but to add another wheel or gear to the model to explain the observed anomaly using the old model.
There are three primary reasons that rules-based regulation will continue to fail. First, as Kay points out in discussing the Basel I and Basel II Agreements to establish uniform international banking regulations, rules can be “gamed” so that balance sheets can deteriorate even though the accountants say they are strong. Second, financial markets are very innovative—smart people driven by profit find new ways to do the old things, new ways that don’t violate the letter of the rules; and it’s the letter that regulation controls. Third, any detailed description of what you’re responsibilities are necessarily fails to cover all contingencies. Anyone with teenagers knows the result. must do is
What to Do About It: Part II Reforming Regulation
Here Kay gets to repeat the essence of his message. Our financial system has failed to be robust—that is, righting itself after shocks hit—because it is too complex, financial systems are too inclusive in their functions, and there is little transparency. The goal should be to reestablish those properties.
Complexity has led to a long list of linkages between the originators of financial instruments and the ultimate owners. The mortgage industry is a solid example. Banks (primarily investment banks) originated loans but relied on ratings agencies to rate their quality, on mortgage bankers to vet the risks, and on commercial banks and the commercial paper market to finance their holdings—this created extra links were part of the ensuing problems. Then the banks sold the mortgages—and their risks—to others less able to assess them. Every one of these linkages failed—the use of short term loans to finance holding of long-term loans shifted risks to commercial banks and to money market funds, the abject failure of the ratings agencies to understand the risks combined with mortgage broker indifference to loan quality turned worst-case risks into reality. Kay argues for tightening these links by requiring the originating institutions to hold the loans they make, relieving them of the option to make bad loans and offload them, and by separating the shadow banking system from the commercial banking system.
Another aspect of the financial industry has been its inclusivity—banks wear too many hats. Banks (both commercial and investment) have been lenders, traders, and assessors of risk. Kay would restore commercial banks to their earlier roles as deposit takers and lenders in low-risk markets like government securities. This was a recommendation made many years ago by Milton Friedman, though for different reasons. Kay would also have risky activities performed by nonbank institutions with no Good Housekeeping certificate of approval, and financed by appropriate sources.
Transparency would reduce the possibility of asymmetric information and inform investors of risk concentrations that might be problematic. Investors would better understand their risks, would acquire them from institutions that have few links to the payment system managed by commercial banks. Trading exchanges would disseminate information about who holds the nations risky claims (an example, derivative transactions would be operated by clearing houses that would collect and report long and short positions of derivatives held by members—derivatives players would know when risks were getting concentrated, as when Lehman had massive short positions in credit default swaps.