The birth of new nations, independent democracies, the unprecedented growth of cities from Lagos to Cairo; the African continent is booming. So why do myths about underdevelopment, unproductive land and overpopulation remain?
In a groundbreaking new study of Africa's developmental history, economist Joe Studwell debunks long-held views about the continent's presumed resistance to growth, charting monumental changes in government, demography and asset management.
Considering everything from settler colonialism to soil conditions, mineral extractivism to disease development and eradication, Studwell persuasively argues that the seizing back of land, people and states across Africa, has also been the seizure of mass economic development.
From slavery to independence and beyond, this is the definitive account of the world's second largest continent - and an optimistic look to its future.
When Joe Studwell’s How Asia Works came out in 2013, it was a book deeply out of consensus. In an age of randomized control trials and micro-interventions, it resurrected macro policies—land redistribution, industrial policy—that had virtually disappeared from mainstream development economics. Moreover, it returned East Asia, the only developing region in the world to successfully make the postwar climb out of poverty, back to the center of debate.
Thirteen years on, Studwell probably deserves some kind of triumphal march. Industrial policy is back in a big way. Through How Asia Works’s influence on Noah Smith and a host of bloggers, a generation of young tech-adjacent males were primed to rant about semiconductor subsidies at parties.
I am no exception. Reading How Asia Works was a formative intellectual experience for me—a jolt out of the mathematical slumber of PhD coursework. I have a complex relationship with the text (more on this in a moment), but I still recommend it effusively to anyone who wants to learn about East Asia.
Now, thirteen years later, Joe Studwell is back. How Africa Works aims to do for Africa what he achieved for Asia—becoming the natural first stop for readers who want to learn about the economics of the continent.
A Dismal Inheritance
The first part of How Africa Works addresses the perennial question: why is Africa poor? Historically, low population density, induced by pests like the tse-tse fly, discouraged the formation of large urban centers. The slave trade—first Arab, then Western—further depopulated the continent, breaking down social bonds. When Europeans arrived in force in the 19th century, they did colonialism on the cheap, with few policemen and even fewer schools. Unlike (say) the Japanese in Korea or Taiwan, the colonial state rarely penetrated much farther than the capital or key ports, leaving governance in the vast hinterland to invented or upjumped chiefs.
Decolonization left a dismal inheritance. In spite of superficial similarities in GDP with East or South Asia, Africa had far more problems on its plate. Levels of education were far too low to sustain an effective civil service, let alone communities of engineers or innovators. Incoherent states encased in inappropriate borders meant Africa’s founding fathers had to stitch nations together from unrelated ethnic groups.
Studwell’s diagnosis of Africa’s problems is steadfastly conventional, leaning heavily on the academic consensus established by Jeffrey Herbst, Robert Bates, Nicolas van de Walle, Leonard Wantchekon, among others. This is no dig; Studwell is an elegant synthesizer. I have some quibbles around the margins—the underrating of precolonial Africa reflects some lingering Western state-centric bias—but as a diagnosis for Africa’s poverty this is a far richer, textured, and more accurate account than the memelike “extractive institutions”.
Four Success Stories
Having set the scene, Studwell turns to four successful case studies: Botswana, Mauritius, Ethiopia, and Rwanda. This itself is a refreshing approach to economic analysis of Africa, which so often wants to dwell on failure. Unlike Taiwan or South Korea, none of these countries is an unqualified developmental miracle, but their relative success provides clues to how an African economic transformation might take place.
Botswana Botswana is Studwell’s poster child for a successful democratic developmental coalition. (For this reason, it featured heavily in Acemoglu and Robinson’s Why Nations Fail as an example of “inclusive institutions”.)
Under the sound leadership of Seretse Khama, local chiefs were carefully co-opted at independence and the Botswana Democratic Party built up into a genuine national force. Khama also created a capable civil service, initially staffed by remaining Europeans, but gradually Africanized with sterling Batswana talent. This meant that when diamonds were discovered just around independence, the windfall was carefully managed, avoiding the worst effects of Dutch Disease. These mining revenues helped raise Botswana to upper middle-income status, making it the fourth-richest country in continental Africa.
Botswana’s chief failing, in Studwell’s view, was adhering too much to responsible policy orthodoxy—i.e., not enough industrial policy. There was no vision for large-scale industrialization, no coherent plan to create large numbers of factory jobs. Moreover, the political dominance of large cattle owners (Botswana was a society of pastoralists rather than farmers) meant that redistribution was never in the cards. The result is a relatively rich society, but one that is highly unequal.
Mauritius
Mauritius, which is often not thought of as an African country, is perhaps the most unusual choice. An uninhabited island before Dutch colonization in the 17th century, its ethnic makeup of Indians and Creoles resembles the Caribbean more than continental Africa. Moreover, Mauritius became independent in 1968 at an income level that most contemporary Africans would envy (see chart above).
Nonetheless, Mauritius’s developmental record is impressive. Originally a sugar colony, a tax on sugar receipts was used to funnel landowners’ capital from agriculture to manufacturing. In the subsequent manufacturing drive, powered by the exports of apparel and textiles, GDP rose 6% a year. With egalitarian, broad-based growth, poverty was virtually eradicated.
However, Mauritius was unable to make the leap from garments to higher-value manufacturing, and the sector’s share of GDP has since halved from over 20 percent to just 11 percent by 2020. Alongside Seychelles, it is one of only two African countries ranked “very high” on the UN’s Human Development Index.
Rwanda
Ethiopia and Rwanda, as recent developmental darlings and conscious emulators of the East Asian example, are perhaps the least surprising inclusions in Studwell’s list.
Under President Paul Kagame, Rwanda has explicitly modeled itself after Singapore (including Lee Kuan Yew’s authoritarian tendencies). At first blush, this struck me as absurd: Singapore is an island state on the crossroads of the world’s richest sea lanes; Rwanda is a landlocked country in poor central Africa.
Studwell’s account convinced me there is an economic logic to this strategy. The high cost of road transport means that importing goods into Central Africa is prohibitively expensive. Rwanda does not necessarily need to compete with the world; by delivering on infrastructure projects and maintaining rare political stability, it can attract investment as a kind of entrepot to Africa’s Great Lakes. Under this formula (with perhaps some slight fudging of the numbers), Rwanda has maintained impressive 7% growth for the past decade.
The big question surrounding Rwanda is if the growth coalition can hold together. Nowhere else in Africa is the tragic legacy of ethnic division more apparent; the present Kagame regime took power by overthrowing the perpetrators of the infamous 1994 genocide. Rwanda’s military involvement in the Eastern Congo, which represents both a source of raw materials and a lucrative market of 30 million, adds a further dark cast to its developmental success.
Ethiopia It is Ethiopia that comes the closest to achieving all parts of Studwell’s formula. As a country of 135 million people, it has the scale to set a major example to the world and to take a serious bite out of Africa’s poverty all on its own.
Meles Zenawi, prime minister from 1995 to 2012, was an avid student of East Asia. (His thesis outline is available online; for any economist with a wavering faith in the power of ideas, read the bibliography.) Under his leadership, the Ethiopian state invested heavily in agricultural extension and irrigation, improving the yields of smallholder farmers. It began (with Chinese support) building industrial parks to support an export manufacturing base. Most ambitious of all, it began work on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, one of the largest hydropower projects in the world, to find a permanent solution to Ethiopia’s energy woes.
No student of How Asia Works could have done better. Had How Africa Works been published before November 2020, it’s easy to see how a celebration of Ethiopia might have occupied most of the book.
But the outbreak of civil war derailed Ethiopia’s progress, and demonstrated the continuing risk of ethnic conflict to the prospects of economic growth.
Some time ago, I read “Africa is not a country” and, although this book is based on different premises and, above all, explains in deep only 4 African countries using different indicators, I find that both books have been fundamental in allowing me to understand a little better a continent so vast that it encompasses all the possibilities of the world.
Ho letto qualche tempo fa "Africa is not a country" e per quanto questo libro si basi su premesse diverse e soprattutto spieghi solo alcuni paesi africani (4 per la precisione) usando indicatori diversi, trovo che entrambi siano stati fondamentali per permettermi di capire un po' meglio un continente talmente grande, che al suo interno racchiude tutte le possibilitá del mondo.
I received from the Publisher a complimentary digital advanced review copy of the book in exchange for a honest review.
How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World’s Last Developmental Frontier is the sequel to Joe Studwell’s influential examination of East Asian economic development that offers an ambitious intellectual framework for Africa’s future growth. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in a dozen African countries, Studwell argues that the continent’s persistent poverty can be addressed through the adoption of a coherent and largely uniform set of policies that proved successful in East Asia. These include the subdivision of large landholdings into small-scale household farms, active support for domestic manufacturing, and state-led, comprehensive strategies for development and industrialization. By highlighting several African success stories, Studwell challenges claims of African exceptionalism and contends that the core maxims of economic development that succeeded elsewhere can also bear fruit on the continent.
Studwell clearly and persuasively attributes Africa’s current predicament to a constellation of historical and structural factors, including ethnic fragmentation, chronically low population density, political immaturity, land inequality, and deficits in education. Prior to the twentieth century, many African societies were organized into relatively loose political groupings, and the often-violent process of state formation—experienced in Europe during the medieval and early modern periods—was interrupted by colonial rule. Colonial powers, exploitative in both design and practice, failed either to distribute settler land equitably to subsistence farmers, thereby fostering social stability, or to nurture domestic manufacturing. This “unhelpful economic inheritance,” as Studwell terms it, deprived postcolonial states of egalitarian land ownership, local entrepreneurship, and the political cohesion necessary to pursue shared development strategies. Combined with the lowest average levels of educational attainment in the world, postcolonial Africa emerged as an economic basket case.
Despite these deep-rooted constraints, Studwell insists that Africa’s endowments need not determine its destiny. Through a series of carefully chosen case studies, he examines countries that have implemented effective development strategies and achieved growth rates comparable to, or exceeding, those of East Asia. These include Botswana, a resource-dependent state that forged a broad political consensus around inclusive national development; Mauritius, a small island nation governed by a pluralistic coalition of urban professionals committed to export-oriented industrialization, support for small landholders, and robust welfare and education systems; Ethiopia, where concentrated state intervention has promoted infrastructure investment, vocational agricultural training, the commercialization of smallholder farming, and industrial policy modeled on Asian precedents; and Rwanda, which Studwell portrays as a case of strong governance and state capacity inspired by Singapore. Across these examples, Studwell identifies common themes: agricultural policies that empower smallholders, deliberate efforts to cultivate domestic manufacturing, and political leadership committed to public service, often through cross-ethnic coalitions organized around a developmental agenda.
While Studwell’s concise and compelling development blueprint is grounded in notable successes, it is not without limitations. His argument tends to understate the heterogeneity of historical trajectories, demographic realities, and geographic constraints that complicate direct comparisons between Africa and Asia. Small-plot farming flourished in Asia in part because of high population density, which enabled labor-intensive cultivation, alongside favorable soil quality and rainfall patterns. Much of Africa, by contrast, faces lower population density, more variable rainfall, weaker transport networks, and limited irrigation, all of which constrain the productivity of smallholder agriculture. African manufacturing likewise confronts formidable obstacles, including competition from inexpensive Asian imports, external tariff barriers in Europe and North America, poor infrastructure, and the disadvantages faced by landlocked countries. Moreover, several of Studwell’s success stories are shaped by distinctive colonial legacies. Mauritius, his most celebrated example, was historically uninhabited, lacked the ethnic fragmentation characteristic of many mainland African states, and inherited relatively effective governance institutions from British rule. Rwanda’s impressive gains in governance and service delivery are offset by its small scale and heavy dependence on foreign aid, while Botswana remains highly reliant on a narrow and unique set of commodity exports. The combined legacies of what Studwell calls “low-budget colonialism,” enduring political and ethnic fragmentation, aid dynamics, and geography all complicate his proposed algorithm for success.
Taken as a whole, How Africa Works presents a lucid case for the broad applicability of developmental policies capable of advancing Africa’s economic frontier. Matching the analytical rigor of his earlier work on Asia, Studwell contends that Africa’s multidimensional challenges can be mitigated through political and economic practices that empower small landholders and local entrepreneurs in pursuit of broad-based growth. Central to this vision is a strong, capable state—one able to spearhead development through inclusive political coalitions that remain firmly oriented toward a long-term developmental agenda.
Thanks to NetGalley for providing me with an advance copy of this work.
How Africa Works (2026) by Joe Studwell is another excellent, interesting book by the author of How Asia Works. Studwell was a business journalist who now has a doctorate from Cambridge. The book addresses one of the most important questions the world faces, how to speed Africa’s development.
Thanks to Grove Atlantic and NetGalley for the ARC.
Studwell’s thesis on Asia is that land reforms were performed that enabled small farmers to farm intensively and then industrial policy was used to increase technological sophistication with export discipline and there were financial institutions created to enable this to happen. Studwell’s thesis on Africa is that Africa has been slow to develop for three reasons. These are that it was too sparsely populated to enable successful agriculture to happen, that ‘low budget colonialism’ only developed small enclaves for resource extraction and that development was slower because the first two factors combined to create dispersed, fragmented, uneducated societies.
The book itself is divided into three parts. In the first Studwell describes his paradigm for African development and why it has been slow. In the second part he describes various African countries that have succeeded with development. These are Botswana, Mauritius, Ethiopia and Rwanda. Finally he describes what policies he believes will really help. This second has chapters on Agriculture and Manufacturing and a chapter that summarises the book.
The case studies on successful development in Africa are really interesting. Botswana’s successful development is fascinating. Botswana at independence had very few high school graduates and a low population. But the government bureaucracy, with substantial numbers of foreigners worked systematically to improve the country. When diamonds were discovered the wealth was used to improve and educate the country and this worked well. In Mauritius a multi-ethnic society was blended together and the country managed to develop agriculture, manufacturing and then tourism. In Ethiopia land reform was carefully done. There Meles Zenawi worked very hard to emulate what had worked in Asia. He also developed roads, irrigation and electricity networks and worked hard to develop manufacturing. In Rwanda Paul Kagame worked to make Rwanda the Singapore of the region.
Studwell’s theses on why Africa hasn’t developed are questionable. He says that low population density in Africa held Africa back. However, South America has a lower population density than Africa and yet this hasn’t held it back. Studwell does write about how disease really impacted Africa’s development and this is related. Between Malaria, Sleeping sickness and other tropical diseases life expectancy in Africa was low and this had a huge impact. Modern medicines and insecticides have grossly reduced the impact but these have only been around since the Second World War and have only come into play as countries became wealthier.
The book also downplays the role of corrupt, awful government in Africa. Despite this it also describes in detail a lot of awful African governance. The excellent book Dictatorland by Paul Kenyon has even more on this. Studwell writes little about aid but does defend it. He mentions Dead Aid by Dambiso Moyo and William Easterly’s work but criticises it.
One thing that Studwell does mention is education and how poorly educated Africa was in 1950. Literacy was very low, perhaps 25%. This has greatly improved today to over 70%. This must make a huge difference.
The book is fairly upbeat about Africa’s prospects. Studwell believes that now that Africa has enough people it will develop more rapidly. He believes that agricultural reform is happening, that infrastructure is being built, Africa is getting better educated and that the demographic dividend will yield considerable results. He makes the case well. Surprisingly he doesn’t add that modern technology help enormously, in particular mobile phones and solar panels. Studwell also writes about how Chinese money for projects is also helping.
How Africa Works is an excellent book. Studwell writes really well, makes his case clearly and provides a plethora of interesting information throughout the book. The book is very much worth reading even for readers who are skeptical about Studwell’s thesis. His optimistic case for Africa in future is well grounded and will hopefully become a reality.
How Africa Works is an excellent and highly informative book that captures the diversity of African development experiences while clearly explaining the structural challenges the continent has faced.
Joe Studwell focuses on how development actually happens, showing how countries have experimented with agriculture reform, education, manufacturing, and state coordination to build economies, improve health and security, and drive growth.
One of the book’s strongest insights is that education alone guarantees nothing without effective developmental policy. Studwell shows that education delivers results only when embedded within strategies that create productive employment and export oriented growth.
A second key insight is the central importance of manufacturing; without deliberate efforts to build manufacturing capacity and unlock economies of scale, countries struggle to sustain growth.
The case studies of Botswana, Mauritius, Ethiopia, and Rwanda, demonstrate how the right mix of policy discipline, agricultural reform, manufacturing development, and institution building can drive economic growth, reform and lift populations out of poverty.
From an economic perspective, the book offers a compelling analysis of how African economies have had to adapt and diversify, shaped by population density, fragmented societies, language diversity, and historical constraints. While the impacts of post-colonial politics, corruption, and foreign influence could have been explored more deeply, the book nonetheless provides a rich and grounded understanding of how Africa works.
Clear, well-argued, meticulously researched and cautiously optimistic, How Africa Works makes a persuasive case that Africa, the world’s last great developmental frontier, is poised to play an increasingly important role on the global stage. This is a highly worthwhile read.
AS the rest of the world grows economically Africa struggles because of corruption and violence.THE author seems to think they are headed in the right direction.