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The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting
From the bestselling author of The Age of Turbulence and Capitalism in America
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can
know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can
know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.
400 pages, Hardcover
First published October 22, 2013
84 people are currently reading
1097 people want to read
About the author
Alan Greenspan
59 books181 followersAlan Greenspan is an American economist who served as the 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006. He worked as a private adviser and provided consulting for firms through his company, Greenspan Associates LLC.
First nominated to the Federal Reserve by President Ronald Reagan in August 1987, he was reappointed at successive four-year intervals until retiring on January 31, 2006, after the second-longest tenure in the position, behind only William McChesney Martin. President George W. Bush appointed Ben S. Bernanke as his successor. Greenspan came to the Federal Reserve Board from a consulting career. Although he was subdued in his public appearances, favorable media coverage raised his profile to a point that several observers likened him to a "rock star". Democratic leaders of Congress criticized him for politicizing his office because of his support for Social Security privatization and tax cuts.
Many have argued that the "easy-money" policies of the Fed during Greenspan's tenure, including the practice known as the "Greenspan put", were a leading cause of the dot-com bubble and subprime mortgage crisis (the latter occurring within a year of his leaving the Fed), which, said The Wall Street Journal, "tarnished his reputation". Yale economist Robert J. Shiller argues that "once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlet for the speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed". Greenspan argues that the housing bubble was not a result of low-interest short-term rates but rather a worldwide phenomenon caused by the progressive decline in long-term interest rates – a direct consequence of the relationship between high savings rates in the developing world and its inverse in the developed world.
First nominated to the Federal Reserve by President Ronald Reagan in August 1987, he was reappointed at successive four-year intervals until retiring on January 31, 2006, after the second-longest tenure in the position, behind only William McChesney Martin. President George W. Bush appointed Ben S. Bernanke as his successor. Greenspan came to the Federal Reserve Board from a consulting career. Although he was subdued in his public appearances, favorable media coverage raised his profile to a point that several observers likened him to a "rock star". Democratic leaders of Congress criticized him for politicizing his office because of his support for Social Security privatization and tax cuts.
Many have argued that the "easy-money" policies of the Fed during Greenspan's tenure, including the practice known as the "Greenspan put", were a leading cause of the dot-com bubble and subprime mortgage crisis (the latter occurring within a year of his leaving the Fed), which, said The Wall Street Journal, "tarnished his reputation". Yale economist Robert J. Shiller argues that "once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlet for the speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed". Greenspan argues that the housing bubble was not a result of low-interest short-term rates but rather a worldwide phenomenon caused by the progressive decline in long-term interest rates – a direct consequence of the relationship between high savings rates in the developing world and its inverse in the developed world.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 62 reviews
October 19, 2014
First, let me say that I greatly enjoyed "The Age of Turbulence." It was better than I had expected, mixing Alan Greenspan's personal story with an interesting finance story. I gave it five stars, and consider it one of the best books I have read in the genre.
Second, let me say that I am an actuary who is keen on books about finance, economics, etc., so I have a high tolerance for dry or technical books. I like regression analysis.
However, I found this book very tough going. The topics seemed to be more of a grab-bag of topics, and it was not clear what the theme or thesis was, though one or two chapters were able to hit a stride and were good. This is in contrast to "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" by Thomas Piketty, which is more methodical, but brings each point clearly before proceeding to the next topic.
The arrangement of the book (original edition, hardcover) worked against the writing. I found myself frequently flipping back and forth, as most, but not all charts were in the back of the book. There are over 300 endnotes for a book of only 300 pages. These should have been triaged, with asides embedded into the text as parenthetical clauses, useless notes removed, and only the rest included as end-notes.
I am no editor, and I am not usually picky. However, the endnote mess (including footnotes to endnotes, endnotes embedded in graphs at the back, etc.) drove me to distraction, turning what could have been a mediocre book into something more irritating.
Second, let me say that I am an actuary who is keen on books about finance, economics, etc., so I have a high tolerance for dry or technical books. I like regression analysis.
However, I found this book very tough going. The topics seemed to be more of a grab-bag of topics, and it was not clear what the theme or thesis was, though one or two chapters were able to hit a stride and were good. This is in contrast to "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" by Thomas Piketty, which is more methodical, but brings each point clearly before proceeding to the next topic.
The arrangement of the book (original edition, hardcover) worked against the writing. I found myself frequently flipping back and forth, as most, but not all charts were in the back of the book. There are over 300 endnotes for a book of only 300 pages. These should have been triaged, with asides embedded into the text as parenthetical clauses, useless notes removed, and only the rest included as end-notes.
I am no editor, and I am not usually picky. However, the endnote mess (including footnotes to endnotes, endnotes embedded in graphs at the back, etc.) drove me to distraction, turning what could have been a mediocre book into something more irritating.
January 10, 2014
Unless you are a macroeconomist or monetary policymaker, save your money. Classic example of a very smart man with little common sense for how to communicate. Poor logical flow; poor metaphors (the title is never clearly explained; couldn't he find a better description than "animal spirits"?); stories inserted that had no relation to the point of the chapter; etc. I majored in economics and spent 30 years in the business world at senior levels, yet many sentences were literally unintelligible. Where was the editor? Why did the publisher let this out?
A soft apology for why the Fed missed the big housing bubble. It did not convince me.
Yet Greenspan is right on target with many observations from banks needing more equity capital to the risks with counterparty assurances, the failure to correct "too big to fail," shadow (unregulated) banking, herd behavior, tail risk, GSE's and crony capitalism, and more. He could have written so much more cogently on these important subjects, or had someone assist him with the manuscript.
Smart man; bad book.
A soft apology for why the Fed missed the big housing bubble. It did not convince me.
Yet Greenspan is right on target with many observations from banks needing more equity capital to the risks with counterparty assurances, the failure to correct "too big to fail," shadow (unregulated) banking, herd behavior, tail risk, GSE's and crony capitalism, and more. He could have written so much more cogently on these important subjects, or had someone assist him with the manuscript.
Smart man; bad book.
March 30, 2017
Greenspan is a master number cruncher and his commentary on China's post-crisis investment-spending fuelled growth is a prime example of his skill.
However, I take stock with his argument that economies benefit from lower taxes on high-income earners. Greenspan argues that because of their low spending as a percentage of income, their savings are large enough to increase their risk appetite and induce them to finance high risk ventures such as backing startups and disruptive technologies, which are key to growth and economic advancement.
While I agree to the merits of taking high risks by backing such investments, I see him focusing on the supply side and not considering the effects of fiscal policy on demand.
A) If maintaining a balanced budget is key, then lowering the tax burden on the rich will place the burden on low income earners, who spend a higher percentage of their income; this leads to lower consumer demand for the economy's output.
Additionally, smaller governments mean lower welfare transfers to the poor and low income earners, doubling the burden on this class and reducing consumer demand even further, this will lead to lower corporate investment, as weaker demand reduces the attractiveness of corporate investments and the returns that corporates expect to generate from such investments.
B) In an era characterised by a saving glut, it might be preferable to impose higher income-taxes on the rich to reduce the stock of savings available to the economy, this will increase the expected return on these savings and produce more attractive risk premia on corporate investment, generating more flows to such investments.
To conclude, imposing higher taxes on the rich, while it may lower funds available for VC investments (a significant effect is doubtful however, since VC's aren't only financed by HNW's and family offices), it maintains consumer demand and increases returns on corporate investments, raising the funds flowing to finance CAPEX and R&D and improving the economy's productive capacity and efficiency.
However, I take stock with his argument that economies benefit from lower taxes on high-income earners. Greenspan argues that because of their low spending as a percentage of income, their savings are large enough to increase their risk appetite and induce them to finance high risk ventures such as backing startups and disruptive technologies, which are key to growth and economic advancement.
While I agree to the merits of taking high risks by backing such investments, I see him focusing on the supply side and not considering the effects of fiscal policy on demand.
A) If maintaining a balanced budget is key, then lowering the tax burden on the rich will place the burden on low income earners, who spend a higher percentage of their income; this leads to lower consumer demand for the economy's output.
Additionally, smaller governments mean lower welfare transfers to the poor and low income earners, doubling the burden on this class and reducing consumer demand even further, this will lead to lower corporate investment, as weaker demand reduces the attractiveness of corporate investments and the returns that corporates expect to generate from such investments.
B) In an era characterised by a saving glut, it might be preferable to impose higher income-taxes on the rich to reduce the stock of savings available to the economy, this will increase the expected return on these savings and produce more attractive risk premia on corporate investment, generating more flows to such investments.
To conclude, imposing higher taxes on the rich, while it may lower funds available for VC investments (a significant effect is doubtful however, since VC's aren't only financed by HNW's and family offices), it maintains consumer demand and increases returns on corporate investments, raising the funds flowing to finance CAPEX and R&D and improving the economy's productive capacity and efficiency.
November 4, 2019
As a globalized world found itself in a tailspin of malevolence following the unprecedented financial crisis of 2008, economists found themselves being brutally panned for either their inability to predict such a catastrophe or for being the mavens of undying optimism. Accusations of employing mathematical/numerical sophistry to camouflage reality and to view the global economy with rose tinted glasses literally symbolised the ironical title by which the subject of Economics is commonly referred to - The Dismal Science.
One such distinguished economist was Alan Greenspan. Known as the Oracle for his economic wizardry the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve of The United States was caught right in the centre of the eye of the storm. Even the modern day Delphi miserably failed to envisage the cascading financial ruin that brought the global economy to the brink of disaster. In this candid work, Greenspan analyses the cause and consequences of one of the greatest recessions to have visited us. He readily admits that the field of Economics having at its edifice macro and micro forecasting models totally fails to factor into its analysis the famous "animal spirits" of John Maynard Keynes. The animal spirits which inform the behaviour, both rational and irrational of the market participants plays a huge role in setting the directions of an economy. Such a behaviour animates fear and euphoria, herd behaviour, time preference and accumulation of status goods (elucidated in great detail by Thorstein Vebler in 1899). Even though most of the ailments as well as the prescriptions in this book are "America specific", Greenspan dwells upon the challenges posed by the integrated Euro markets and the contradicting behaviour of its various participants.
Of especial interest (at least to me) in the book is the solution offered by Greenspan for obviating the moral hazard created by the "Too Big To Fail (TBTF)" behemoths. These entities with their inextricable link to the global markets and to similar cross border corporations trigger a calamitous collapse in the event of their going bankrupt. Hence the State steps in to do everything possible to prevent such a disastrous outcome. Classic cases in point being the bail outs of AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie May. Greenspan argues that such state intervention would infuse an element of callousness and recklessness in the behaviour of these huge corporations. As an alternative he proposes measures such as an issuance of Contingent and Collateral Bonds (CoCo) which would ensure that upon a financial risk event being triggered, the debts represented by these bonds automatically get converted into equity. He also envisages the preparation of "living wills" whereby an expeditious means of liquidation is already in place even when a TBTF institution is alive and functioning. He views with a measure of skepticism the provision in the Frank-Dodd legislation which identifies a whopping seventeen institutions as coming within the category of TBTF. Greenspan also bemoans the burgeoning increase in social spending or benefits spending which has a material impact on the gross total savings of an economy.
For the curious who harbour an inquisitiveness to understand the cause behind the near collapse of the Global economic and financial system between 2007 and 2009, "The Map and The Territory" provides an invaluable lesson.
One such distinguished economist was Alan Greenspan. Known as the Oracle for his economic wizardry the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve of The United States was caught right in the centre of the eye of the storm. Even the modern day Delphi miserably failed to envisage the cascading financial ruin that brought the global economy to the brink of disaster. In this candid work, Greenspan analyses the cause and consequences of one of the greatest recessions to have visited us. He readily admits that the field of Economics having at its edifice macro and micro forecasting models totally fails to factor into its analysis the famous "animal spirits" of John Maynard Keynes. The animal spirits which inform the behaviour, both rational and irrational of the market participants plays a huge role in setting the directions of an economy. Such a behaviour animates fear and euphoria, herd behaviour, time preference and accumulation of status goods (elucidated in great detail by Thorstein Vebler in 1899). Even though most of the ailments as well as the prescriptions in this book are "America specific", Greenspan dwells upon the challenges posed by the integrated Euro markets and the contradicting behaviour of its various participants.
Of especial interest (at least to me) in the book is the solution offered by Greenspan for obviating the moral hazard created by the "Too Big To Fail (TBTF)" behemoths. These entities with their inextricable link to the global markets and to similar cross border corporations trigger a calamitous collapse in the event of their going bankrupt. Hence the State steps in to do everything possible to prevent such a disastrous outcome. Classic cases in point being the bail outs of AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie May. Greenspan argues that such state intervention would infuse an element of callousness and recklessness in the behaviour of these huge corporations. As an alternative he proposes measures such as an issuance of Contingent and Collateral Bonds (CoCo) which would ensure that upon a financial risk event being triggered, the debts represented by these bonds automatically get converted into equity. He also envisages the preparation of "living wills" whereby an expeditious means of liquidation is already in place even when a TBTF institution is alive and functioning. He views with a measure of skepticism the provision in the Frank-Dodd legislation which identifies a whopping seventeen institutions as coming within the category of TBTF. Greenspan also bemoans the burgeoning increase in social spending or benefits spending which has a material impact on the gross total savings of an economy.
For the curious who harbour an inquisitiveness to understand the cause behind the near collapse of the Global economic and financial system between 2007 and 2009, "The Map and The Territory" provides an invaluable lesson.
November 7, 2014
I enjoyed this one as much as The Age of Turbulence. While the subject matter is heavy, I find Greenspan's style pleasant and entertaining. This book is just packed with good stuff, and not a lot of filler fluff. I learned so much. All of our elected officials should be required to read this book, as it demonstrates clearly the long term effects of our economic and social policies. Of course we all know politicians are more interested in promoting policies that will make them popular in the short run, but may cause disaster further down the line, Greenspan explains this in concrete terms.
Refreshingly, the author is nonpartisan.
I finished this book convinced that Alan Greenspan is one of the great minds of our time. Because of his involvement in the Federal Reserve and in other government capacities for so many years, his insight is valuable. He also freely admits to not foreseeing the extent or ultimate effects of the recent financial crisis, although one gets the impression that he was aware of the unwiseness of certain governments dictated credit policies. Sometimes stuff sounds good but doesn't work out on paper.
My only complaint is the graphs in the book. For one thing they are all back in the appendix so you have to constantly flip back and forth. They are so small that even with reading glasses I can't see some of the data. And they are complicated. Apparently you have to understand regression analysis and T factors and a bunch of other statistical concepts. I'm sure they are fascinating....please explain them more explicitly!
Also Dr. Greenspan tends to use an awful lot of end notes. They should be changed to footnotes so we don't have to flip back and forth constantly.
The book still gets my 5 stars. Very worth reading!
Refreshingly, the author is nonpartisan.
I finished this book convinced that Alan Greenspan is one of the great minds of our time. Because of his involvement in the Federal Reserve and in other government capacities for so many years, his insight is valuable. He also freely admits to not foreseeing the extent or ultimate effects of the recent financial crisis, although one gets the impression that he was aware of the unwiseness of certain governments dictated credit policies. Sometimes stuff sounds good but doesn't work out on paper.
My only complaint is the graphs in the book. For one thing they are all back in the appendix so you have to constantly flip back and forth. They are so small that even with reading glasses I can't see some of the data. And they are complicated. Apparently you have to understand regression analysis and T factors and a bunch of other statistical concepts. I'm sure they are fascinating....please explain them more explicitly!
Also Dr. Greenspan tends to use an awful lot of end notes. They should be changed to footnotes so we don't have to flip back and forth constantly.
The book still gets my 5 stars. Very worth reading!
February 17, 2014
Greenspan is a lazy thinker and a poor writer. This book is full of excuses about why he (and the financial analysts community at large) missed the crash. He takes no responsibility for his actions as one of the most powerful actors in the world in finance. History won't judge him well.
October 16, 2017
Not sure what the other reviews are on about, of course it's dry but not THAT dry. It is Alan Greenspan after-all.
Maybe it's because he confirmed my biases, such as being skeptical of China's long term viability economically. And he includes some good scatterplots (from World Bank and IMF research) of Russia (and China) being a corrupt state. About time people like him point out this most basic fact.
Though of course I disagree and or found his constant haranguing about "social welfare payments are bad 'mkay" tiring and unconvincing. Same with his union bashing and tenuous claim that unions are bad for workers and their pay.
The productivity stuff was good.
The publication seems rushed and there are mistakes in placement of Exhibits. No book is worth rushing when it has errors. This book didn't have to meet a deadline. If they fixed the errors would it be a 5 star book? No probably not but that's beside the point. Errors are annoying and detract from the credibility of the author (of which none of us would really doubt) and the publisher Penguin. Leave the shitty workmanship to Kindle book 'authors' and self-publishers.
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If you want the 'Enhanced MarkUps' where I've penciled in page numbers of the EndNotes and highlights then request book # 5100451 if you access RRL books. https://rrl.nsw.gov.au
Maybe it's because he confirmed my biases, such as being skeptical of China's long term viability economically. And he includes some good scatterplots (from World Bank and IMF research) of Russia (and China) being a corrupt state. About time people like him point out this most basic fact.
Though of course I disagree and or found his constant haranguing about "social welfare payments are bad 'mkay" tiring and unconvincing. Same with his union bashing and tenuous claim that unions are bad for workers and their pay.
The productivity stuff was good.
The publication seems rushed and there are mistakes in placement of Exhibits. No book is worth rushing when it has errors. This book didn't have to meet a deadline. If they fixed the errors would it be a 5 star book? No probably not but that's beside the point. Errors are annoying and detract from the credibility of the author (of which none of us would really doubt) and the publisher Penguin. Leave the shitty workmanship to Kindle book 'authors' and self-publishers.
======
If you want the 'Enhanced MarkUps' where I've penciled in page numbers of the EndNotes and highlights then request book # 5100451 if you access RRL books. https://rrl.nsw.gov.au
March 29, 2014
According to Greenspan we live in an age of entitlement. He asks: What type of society do we wish to live in? One in which self-reliance is the ethos, where government has little role aside from setting the legal conditions for political freedom? Or, a society and government whose primary function is to “entitle” citizens with all forms of income transfers crafted to elevate the least privileged to equality of opportunity? In short, do we wish a society of dependence on government or society based on the self-reliance of individual citizens? Which, if either, given human nature, is the most efficient in serving the society as a whole? This is the root of the political debate between a welfare state and something far short of that.
He acknowledges that "The tendency for market prices to seek equilibrium cannot occur if market structure is dysfunctional. The powerful forces of free market adjustments fail. Under such circuimstances, the substitution of sovereign credit for private credit is essential to quickly restore market structure. The US equity support of banks and mutual funds were critical in arresting the free fall. All financial markets, however, were functioning again by early 2009.", however, complains that government support went too far.
Perhaps not unexpectedly there is no critique of his involvement and "contribution" to 2008 catastrophe in the first place.
He blames government payments towards social security as one of the reasons US economy is in such a bad shape. Instead they should cut taxes and make people more self-reliant. Typical neo-liberal response.
He acknowledges that "The tendency for market prices to seek equilibrium cannot occur if market structure is dysfunctional. The powerful forces of free market adjustments fail. Under such circuimstances, the substitution of sovereign credit for private credit is essential to quickly restore market structure. The US equity support of banks and mutual funds were critical in arresting the free fall. All financial markets, however, were functioning again by early 2009.", however, complains that government support went too far.
Perhaps not unexpectedly there is no critique of his involvement and "contribution" to 2008 catastrophe in the first place.
He blames government payments towards social security as one of the reasons US economy is in such a bad shape. Instead they should cut taxes and make people more self-reliant. Typical neo-liberal response.
August 18, 2015
I like economics, and I like books by practitioners, and I was SORELY disappointed by this book. The book is so disorganized, not edited at all (Exhibit 7.3 appears in Chapter 2), and I kept on getting mad at individual headings and sentences that seemed out-of-place or unsupported. I bet Alan Greenspan just typed this out in one go and knew it would sell, but also knew that his legacy wouldn't be judged on the basis of this book. He may be right, but reading this book made me think less of him.
I'm recycling this book, and waiting for Janet's.
I'm recycling this book, and waiting for Janet's.
December 18, 2013
In his first book, Alan Greenspan amazed as the suddenly personable and accessible narrator of our nation's economic history and outlook. But reading The Age of Turbulence will not prepare you for this book. It's tedious and inaccessible, and it's never quite clear what the topic is. I still have immense respect for the man, but I felt lost or in plain disagreement through much of this one.
abandoned
October 3, 2013Why I Abandoned this Book - in one sentence: Because I haven't worked in risk analysis for thirty years, though it looked interesting.
I probably would have given it: 3 stars
Follow me on Twitter: @Dr_A_Taubman
I probably would have given it: 3 stars
Follow me on Twitter: @Dr_A_Taubman
August 1, 2024
This was extremely boring and not at all enlightening as to the nature of the Federal Reserve and the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, which is what mainly interested me in the first place. In fact, Greenspan didn't speak about the federal reserve and its role in the American politics that much. On the topic of the subprime mortgage crisis, he said something like " no one could have guessed it will turn out that way". Gee, thanks.
I first heard the name of Alan Greenspan from my college Economics teacher who spoke to us as if we all already had a background in economics, as if 18-year old students could understand the true implication of sentences like "Greenspan lowered the interest rate" without any further explanation. Many years later, I was enrolled in a program that had a Finance component, so I had a firmer grasp what raising or lowering interest rates meant for the economy, as well as some other Finance concepts that would supposedly equip me to understand the topic even if on a basic level.
Nonetheless, it was no help in understanding Greenspan's book. It is definitely NOT for a layperson. I'm a firm believer that a person who truly knows his stuff should be able to explain it to anyone, break it down to the simplest terms possible. This was written as if he was talking to fellow economists or financiers.
I first heard the name of Alan Greenspan from my college Economics teacher who spoke to us as if we all already had a background in economics, as if 18-year old students could understand the true implication of sentences like "Greenspan lowered the interest rate" without any further explanation. Many years later, I was enrolled in a program that had a Finance component, so I had a firmer grasp what raising or lowering interest rates meant for the economy, as well as some other Finance concepts that would supposedly equip me to understand the topic even if on a basic level.
Nonetheless, it was no help in understanding Greenspan's book. It is definitely NOT for a layperson. I'm a firm believer that a person who truly knows his stuff should be able to explain it to anyone, break it down to the simplest terms possible. This was written as if he was talking to fellow economists or financiers.
January 22, 2022
The biggest issue this book has is that it has no direction whatsoever. I don't know what the line of thinking was when Mr. Greenspan wrote this book. It does not follow any clear path, it jusmps around from subject to subject, It is not written in any chronological order, and even the chapters themselves are jumpy and seem to be more of the ramblings of Mr. Greenspan than any clear and concise explanation of the topic of his book. In reality, this is more of a "what I would have done if I was still in charge of the fed" with a little bit of critique of Mr. Bernanke with the wonderful view of hindsight.
Just no sense of direction whatsoever, waste of a book to read.
Just no sense of direction whatsoever, waste of a book to read.
October 28, 2018
short chapters keep this easily accessible to those who are not trained economists or statisticians. Greenspan's ideas and concepts are clearly explained (whether you agree with them or not) and he at least builds logically towards his conclusion, which is well presented.
If like me, you believe that all people are not created equal and some disadvantageous circumstances are sometimes impossible to overcome, then you will not be convinced in the power of free markets to prevent economic misery for those less fortunate.
If like me, you believe that all people are not created equal and some disadvantageous circumstances are sometimes impossible to overcome, then you will not be convinced in the power of free markets to prevent economic misery for those less fortunate.
April 11, 2024
Definitely scattered and much of it over my head. But despite ideological differences, mainly over the validity of social service spending (though elsewhere in agreement with his libertarian aversion to the government bail-out) I think Alan Greenspan is a very sharp, respectable thinker and this book contains much on finance, macroeconomics, and American economic policy to learn from. Slowly trying to familiarize with these grounds and this was a help.
December 14, 2024
Not the most well-written book, Greenspan's affection for economics and less-than-stellar writing style shines through via his lengthy interconnected stories present throughout. Although I struggled to keep track of all his ideas, this book is amazing if you want to understand the struggles of forecasting, economic organization, the nature of bubbles and just a general descriptor of how the 2008 global financial crisis happened.
July 22, 2019
I have a mixed opinion regarding this book. However, I believe it is a must read if you want to learn about economics. I mean, it is nice to know Greenspan's side of the story and to dig into his mentality. I did not 100% enjoyed reading it but the writing style is good overall and it is very informative.
March 13, 2018
I suppose a helpful comment would be to ignore substance and note that triumphs are cast in the first-person singular, while debacles are described in the third-person plural (occasionally, first-person plural).
November 21, 2019
The point is that the map poorly represents the territory. This is true for many things in life, but especially for economic analysis and forecasting. Greenspan’s successors may one day create better maps, and the economy may one day serve people instead of the other way round.
January 6, 2020
An exploration of the causes of the 2008 housing bubble, and a warning about America's currently precarious economic/political situation. I feel like there's good information and analysis here, but you basically need a degree in economics to understand most of it. Not a book for the casual reader.
August 20, 2017
better than his autobiography and i think more useful but... nothing special
September 1, 2017
看不太懂呢哈哈
看來需要提升基礎金融知識了
看來需要提升基礎金融知識了
September 1, 2017
看不太懂呢哈哈
看來需要提升基礎金融知識了
看來需要提升基礎金融知識了
January 7, 2019
Animal spirit.
March 24, 2019
Less interesting and less depth than age of turbulence
May 20, 2019
It is the way in which Alan Greenspan justifies his decisiones as head of the Fed...
April 3, 2022
Remarkably shallow. You have to suspect/hope that this was mostly ghost written.
March 29, 2024
An enlightening tale of the run up and aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis as told by an expert. An in-depth look at the economic calculus and the unforeseen which led to a black swan event.
May 18, 2025
Apesar de não ser um livro grande, é extremamente denso nos assuntos que aborda, nos âmbitos históricos e correlacionais que faz com a economia americana, que serve como uma análise de um cenário econômico de 10 anos atrás, mas a conjectura econômica teve altas mudanças principalmente no tocante a China, porém ele constrói e da dados extremamente interessantes. Vejo mais como livro de referência pra projetos específicos, pois a leitura é maçante com muitos dados, e o autor não tem quase alguma didática, mas gostei no geral, teria que reler com mais calma e estudá-lo com profundidade
March 15, 2017
Lo que ofrece este libro es el conocimiento, basado en apreciar al mundo de diferente perspectiva que el resto del mundo dentro de un segmento con enfoque económico. Greenspan es conducido menos por la teoría, más por datos y experiencia práctica, por lo que en este libro presenta una visión amplia de la crisis financiera, la recesión y la poca recuperación de los últimos años.
A lo largo del libro, Greenspan hace referencia a la política monetaria, fiscal, financiera, productividad, desigualdad y la globalización.
El libro tiene una perspectiva de advertencia a los que confían demasiado en la previsión de los reguladores, ya que probablemente afectarán a la irracionalidad que esté en boga.
Tratar de atraer a dos audiencias, economistas profesionales, usando gráficos y estadísticas y lectores que quieren conocer la perspectiva de Greenspan sobre cómo funciona la economía.
Ofrece a los lectores una perspectiva reflexiva y de mente abierta, junto con la experiencia de haber visto tanto desde dentro las políticas empresariales como públicas.
A lo largo del libro, Greenspan hace referencia a la política monetaria, fiscal, financiera, productividad, desigualdad y la globalización.
El libro tiene una perspectiva de advertencia a los que confían demasiado en la previsión de los reguladores, ya que probablemente afectarán a la irracionalidad que esté en boga.
Tratar de atraer a dos audiencias, economistas profesionales, usando gráficos y estadísticas y lectores que quieren conocer la perspectiva de Greenspan sobre cómo funciona la economía.
Ofrece a los lectores una perspectiva reflexiva y de mente abierta, junto con la experiencia de haber visto tanto desde dentro las políticas empresariales como públicas.
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