The expectation of an end to time and the yearning for a millennial paradise have been recurring themes in Western religious thought. But when we speak of expectation of the world's end we are mindful of the fact that generation after generation of millenarians have been disappointed. Their endtime hopes and prophecies have not come true. What happens, one might ask, when prophecies fail? Does failure spell the end of the very movements that embrace such expectations? The aim of this anthology is to gather together in one volume the essential research from the fields of sociology and psychology that seeks to answer this intriguing question as first raised by Festinger in his 1956 work, When Prophecy Fails. Cross-cultural and comparative, this collection chronicles forty years of research into failed prophecy and response to the attending cognitive dissonance it produces that is at once timely and informative.
Humans are built to predict. Our evolutionary tendency is to be prepared for the worst that could happen and take precautionary measures. Religious fervor builds on this with chiliastic visions that speak of both mortal and immortal dangers. So what do believers do when a prophecy fails? This is a moment of profound importance, both for the individuals in question but also for society as we struggle to reconcile competing epistemological worldviews.
As an academic review, this compilation of social science research is a helpful, if insufficient, look into the world of cognitive dissonance. Narratives of failed prophecy are intriguing, but the research is too qualitative, haphazard, and post hoc for my tastes. Human beliefs have great plasticity, particularly when confronting dissonant information. Each circumstance seems almost unique, and it is difficult to hypothesize a standard response. I applaud the researchers for attempting the study nonetheless and found the individual accounts engaging. Stronger research methods may help us get closer to the answers, but in the end we may simply have to acknowledge that self-justification can meet almost any cognitive refutation imaginable.
I loved Festinger's "When Prophecy Fails," but I was skeptical of his hypothesis that groups respond to the cognitive dissonance caused by a disconfirmed prophecy by increasing proselytizing activity. Based on my own reading, increased proselytizing after a disconfirmed prophecy is fairly unusual. This book examines the other ways that groups respond to disconfirmed prophecy. The essays in this book are a lot dryer and more scientific-sounding than most of the Festinger book, but if you found that book interesting, you might like this one.
Very interesting compendium of the research on a fascinating niche topic within the sociology of religion--specifically, how to do religious movements react when specific prophecies that they've relied on fail (mostly prophecies to do with the end of the world).