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The Artificial Intelligence Contagion: Can Democracy Withstand the Imminent Transformation of Work, Wealth and the Social Order?
Examines how AI/Robotics is overwhelming the fundamental institutions of Western society. But are we prepared for the social impact of the vast changes soon to be upon us?
• Half the world's workers could be replaced by machines within the next 30 years. The McKinsey Global Institute and Oxford University researchers predict massive job loss with 47% to 50% of US jobs eliminated by 2030 and up to 800 million more jobs destroyed worldwide.
• Nor will the AI/robotics transformation produce large numbers of replacement jobs. The AI/robotics systems are already being designed to do those.
No area of work is sacrosanct. Work opportunities are being eliminated from the most “intellectual” activities down to the basic areas of services and labor, including a range of professional occupations heretofore thought of as distinctly human: in middle management, finance, banking, insurance, medicine, high-tech, transportation, law and even the arts.
Worse, it is playing out in the context of a set of critical issues.
• Birth rates are plummeting below replacement levels in economically developed nations. People are living to ages wellbeyond historical averages.
• At least fifty percent of Americans have little or nothing saved for retirement.
• Poor and uneducated migrants are coming into Western nations at a time when the agricultural, construction and home care jobs migrants have traditionally filled are being increasingly replaced by robotic workers.
• An already bankrupt US government is projected to experience annual deficits above $1 trillion for at least the next ten years. The US national debt is officially admitted to be $21 trillion, but is actually closer to $65 trillion dollars according to a former US Comptroller General.
As AI/robotics eliminates jobs across the spectrum, governmental revenues will plummet while the debt increases dramatically. This crisis of limited resources on all levels―underfunded or non-existent pensions, health problems, lack of savings, and job destruction―will drive many into homelessness and produce a dramatic rise in violence . All this will take place in an environment of increased AI-facilitated surveillance by governments, aggressive militarization using AI systems and autonomous weapons, and the degradation of of the world;s economic and political order.
The final five chapters of CONTAGION offer possible solutions.
• Half the world's workers could be replaced by machines within the next 30 years. The McKinsey Global Institute and Oxford University researchers predict massive job loss with 47% to 50% of US jobs eliminated by 2030 and up to 800 million more jobs destroyed worldwide.
• Nor will the AI/robotics transformation produce large numbers of replacement jobs. The AI/robotics systems are already being designed to do those.
No area of work is sacrosanct. Work opportunities are being eliminated from the most “intellectual” activities down to the basic areas of services and labor, including a range of professional occupations heretofore thought of as distinctly human: in middle management, finance, banking, insurance, medicine, high-tech, transportation, law and even the arts.
Worse, it is playing out in the context of a set of critical issues.
• Birth rates are plummeting below replacement levels in economically developed nations. People are living to ages wellbeyond historical averages.
• At least fifty percent of Americans have little or nothing saved for retirement.
• Poor and uneducated migrants are coming into Western nations at a time when the agricultural, construction and home care jobs migrants have traditionally filled are being increasingly replaced by robotic workers.
• An already bankrupt US government is projected to experience annual deficits above $1 trillion for at least the next ten years. The US national debt is officially admitted to be $21 trillion, but is actually closer to $65 trillion dollars according to a former US Comptroller General.
As AI/robotics eliminates jobs across the spectrum, governmental revenues will plummet while the debt increases dramatically. This crisis of limited resources on all levels―underfunded or non-existent pensions, health problems, lack of savings, and job destruction―will drive many into homelessness and produce a dramatic rise in violence . All this will take place in an environment of increased AI-facilitated surveillance by governments, aggressive militarization using AI systems and autonomous weapons, and the degradation of of the world;s economic and political order.
The final five chapters of CONTAGION offer possible solutions.
435 pages, Paperback
First published May 1, 2019
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51 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
January 14, 2023
About 1-2 years ago, it took no more than 10 min of driving in my California town to see a self-driving car; but now it has been months since I saw one. The car's industry executives pushed their futuristic PR campaigns and even tested the self-driving cars; and almost everyone believed it. There is no doubt that they will come, but not as soon and as dramatically as announced about 5 years ago.
This is also the story of this book – it picked all the negative prophecies around AI and constructed a quite imminent and dark narrative. To this, it added a lot more negative tendencies and prophecies not directly connected to AI (like budget deficit, taxation, redistribution, radicalization, political incompetence, etc.). In fact, other than the dark and urgent tone, there is not much original content in this book...
This is also the story of this book – it picked all the negative prophecies around AI and constructed a quite imminent and dark narrative. To this, it added a lot more negative tendencies and prophecies not directly connected to AI (like budget deficit, taxation, redistribution, radicalization, political incompetence, etc.). In fact, other than the dark and urgent tone, there is not much original content in this book...
July 9, 2023
DOOM!
A loaf of bologna that did not age well.
A loaf of bologna that did not age well.
October 31, 2021
This was mostly on the pessimistic side. I think there is quite a bit of good that will come from this technological revolution. Contagion was a very apt term.
February 20, 2022
The Artificial Intelligence Contagion: Can Democracy Withstand The Imminent Transformation of Work, Wealth, and the Social Order by David and Danial Barnhizer is a populist-friendly exemplar of techno-fatalism. There are a lot of good points in the text, and a useful series of questions and information. There is a bit of doomsaying in the book, though the authors are mostly saying "we must act now to prevent the worst from happening." That's not too out there, and neither are most of their recommendations. I have noticed a lot of people referring to this book as Trump propaganda, and that's an unfair criticism. It is better to say that they share a populist pedagogy of anti-globalist, anti-corporatism. That has its own problems, but given its increasingly popularity, we'll more or less need to live with it as a common sentiment at this point. I would, however, strongly suggest you start out with a different book on AI before taking up this one. Contagion is useful as a countervailing reference, but perhaps not as your keystone for understanding the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
80/100
80/100
July 9, 2019
A very unsettling book that is literally happening before our eyes. We are only seeing the beginnings of A.I. and its implementation. Put in context with the development and implementation of 5G, it all makes sense. To bring about the "Internet of all things" and A.I. you are going to need something of the order of 5G.
Barnhizer's book has little to say that's good about A.I. - there is no doubt in Barnhizer's mind that the costs will far out-weigh the benefits.
While the book largely looks at the problem of A.I. from the perspective of the U.S. it also draws in the rest of Western civilization and the East Asian countries. I think overall this is a well researched book that covers many different angles on the issue or problem of A.I. E.g., the economic effects (short and long-term), dangerous military applications, the impact on our privacy and freedoms and the emotional and psychological impact on humans. There is even a chapter on China's efforts to develop A.I. and in many respects they are way ahead of the West.
Barnhizer also ties in the aging demographics of Western and East Asian countries as a factor that will impinge and be impinged upon by A.I. Where I thought Barnhizer's arguments were a little poorly researched was where he spoke of the United States' imminent bankruptcy. Japan currently has a state debt that's well over 100% of GDP and they don't look like they're going under. The U.S. DOES certainly have a problem with where it prioritizes its spending (and Barnhizer does point this out) but as long as they retain their own currency and there are real resources available and people unemployed, they're not going to go broke. Barnhizer needs to follow up on the current Modern Monetary Theory discussions and research that's out there.
I also don't know if the job losses will be as bad as what Barnhizer's research shows. For example, in China, they are developing A.I. bots that can ultimately look after the elderly in aged care and that A.I. will make a lot of doctors and nurses redundant. Personally I think there will be a back lash or resistance if an attempt is made to put robots into areas of social services. Who necessarily wants to be looked after by a robot. I won't even tolerate the self-checkout cashiers at the supermarket. Anyway I hope Barnhizer is wrong on this score.
In the last section of the book, Barnhizer outlines a number of solutions or approaches that could help humanity deal with the A.I. problem. In this a strong government role and decisiveness stand out as the key responses needed. Given the austerity and cost-cutting that many of our governments are currently undertaking, is this likely to happen? Time will tell, but as Barnhizer points out, that time is running out.
Barnhizer's book has little to say that's good about A.I. - there is no doubt in Barnhizer's mind that the costs will far out-weigh the benefits.
While the book largely looks at the problem of A.I. from the perspective of the U.S. it also draws in the rest of Western civilization and the East Asian countries. I think overall this is a well researched book that covers many different angles on the issue or problem of A.I. E.g., the economic effects (short and long-term), dangerous military applications, the impact on our privacy and freedoms and the emotional and psychological impact on humans. There is even a chapter on China's efforts to develop A.I. and in many respects they are way ahead of the West.
Barnhizer also ties in the aging demographics of Western and East Asian countries as a factor that will impinge and be impinged upon by A.I. Where I thought Barnhizer's arguments were a little poorly researched was where he spoke of the United States' imminent bankruptcy. Japan currently has a state debt that's well over 100% of GDP and they don't look like they're going under. The U.S. DOES certainly have a problem with where it prioritizes its spending (and Barnhizer does point this out) but as long as they retain their own currency and there are real resources available and people unemployed, they're not going to go broke. Barnhizer needs to follow up on the current Modern Monetary Theory discussions and research that's out there.
I also don't know if the job losses will be as bad as what Barnhizer's research shows. For example, in China, they are developing A.I. bots that can ultimately look after the elderly in aged care and that A.I. will make a lot of doctors and nurses redundant. Personally I think there will be a back lash or resistance if an attempt is made to put robots into areas of social services. Who necessarily wants to be looked after by a robot. I won't even tolerate the self-checkout cashiers at the supermarket. Anyway I hope Barnhizer is wrong on this score.
In the last section of the book, Barnhizer outlines a number of solutions or approaches that could help humanity deal with the A.I. problem. In this a strong government role and decisiveness stand out as the key responses needed. Given the austerity and cost-cutting that many of our governments are currently undertaking, is this likely to happen? Time will tell, but as Barnhizer points out, that time is running out.
October 30, 2021
I often wonder about systemic economic problems and other confounding factors like increasing reliance on screens, people's sensitivity and cancel culture, job loss and addiction epidemics, and our future with technology.
This book explained the interconnection between all of that and more. If you want a better understanding of big tech, political tensions around global races for technological dominance, how needed job skills will shift in the future and why you should care now, and how AI is contributing to all of this, this is the book for you.
There are one or two parts where the authors seem to rant for a moment, but they fairly present alternative arguments to balance the scale. Be prepared: some of the topics discussed in this book are quite frankly shocking and will provoke a wide range of emotions as you read, but based on some other AI books I have read, like Superintelligence, The Singularity is Near, and How to Create a Mind, they are accurate.
I ordered a hard copy so I can use this as a reference for years to come. I view this as a guide to navigating the turbulent waters in the decades ahead. It's not a happy book, but neither is our world, and if we have any hope of influencing our future as a species, it's time to get smart about it. That begins by opening our eyes and being willing to learn.
This book explained the interconnection between all of that and more. If you want a better understanding of big tech, political tensions around global races for technological dominance, how needed job skills will shift in the future and why you should care now, and how AI is contributing to all of this, this is the book for you.
There are one or two parts where the authors seem to rant for a moment, but they fairly present alternative arguments to balance the scale. Be prepared: some of the topics discussed in this book are quite frankly shocking and will provoke a wide range of emotions as you read, but based on some other AI books I have read, like Superintelligence, The Singularity is Near, and How to Create a Mind, they are accurate.
I ordered a hard copy so I can use this as a reference for years to come. I view this as a guide to navigating the turbulent waters in the decades ahead. It's not a happy book, but neither is our world, and if we have any hope of influencing our future as a species, it's time to get smart about it. That begins by opening our eyes and being willing to learn.
June 24, 2021
This book covers a lot of ground from the potential effect of AI to the impact of globalization and deficit spending on our future. Most issues are reasonably well done. The authors provide good arguments for their positions. Honestly, I was surprised at the conflicting belief systems described. I wasn’t surprised by the screw ups by government and industry elites that have put us in this position. Even worse, the intentional actions designed to solidify power and wealth of elites was an eye opener when it was presented all at once. I listened to the book, and I just bought the hard copy so I can go back over some of the key points.
July 8, 2021
I picked out this title after reading a few books on AI that see AI as the key to establishing utopia (e.g., Kurzweil). This is more of an alarmist view of AI with doomsday predictions for the future collapse of society. Unfortunately, this author is a Trump apologist and finds time to complain about the laziness of Gen Z and how hate crime laws are anti-First Amendment. There are a lot of tired conservative/libertarian BS sprinkled in at all turns. Overall, this was mostly a waste of time. Note: I listened to the audiobook version and the narrator would try to do German or Russian accents when he was reading a quote from a German or a Russian. This was dumb and annoying.
December 9, 2021
The author is extremely negative toward the future prospects of the world. While many of the issues discussed are very real, the author comes across as often over-reacting, and at times as a complete conspiracy theorist, willing to take one assumption and claim it as "conclusive proof." You can almost imagine the author hiding in his bunker to make sure the true evils of the world like robots and college professors can't get to him. The biggest failure of the book is the large amount of space dedicated to what to worry about, and the lack of much of value in regards to possible solutions.
January 20, 2022
This work presents for consideration many important socio-political events and possibilities tied to the rise of AI and does so in multiple contexts (e.g., international relations, corporate influence) that shape and are shaped by AI deployment. It's a bit alarmist in tone but the information is generally important to be aware of.
January 26, 2021
Well researched, although IMHO the authors overdid their backdrop painting by using too broad a pessimistic doomsday brush. That said, their ideas and solutions described in the last chapter deserve further discussion and debate.
February 4, 2023
Somewhat chilling. We’re innovating ourselves out of jobs it seems. Hopefully just into different ones. Even if we figure out how to tax AI entities and replace the lost tax revenue, are we losing something as a human race by outsourcing most all of the physical aspects of labor?
December 6, 2021
A other good book on how AI is going to drastically change the future
August 19, 2022
Very pessimistic but the arguments are sound
October 23, 2020
A fair warning on the impact of AI on our society.
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews