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The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy And Its Impact On The Global Economy, The Balance Of Power, And Your Job
By 2015, China may well have the world's largest economy. In The Chinese Century, Oded Shenkar shows how China is restoring its imperial glory by infusing modern technology and market economics into a non-democratic system controlled by the Communist party and bureaucracy. Shenkar shows why China's quest for global success differs radically from predecessors such as Japan, India, and Mexico... why it represents a fundamental restructuring of the global business system... and why it will transform the roles of participants in the global economy. He previews tomorrow's new competitive ground rules, terms of employment, and consumption patterns, and shows how Chinese ascendancy is redrawing political, economic, and social battle lines. Learn why the U.S. is most vulnerable to China's ascent... how China's disregard for intellectual property creates sustainable competitive advantage... how China's growth impacts global businesses and individual purchasing decisions. Above all, Shenkar shows what you must do to survive and prosper in "The Chinese Century."
191 pages, Hardcover
First published October 13, 2004
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102 people want to read
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January 16, 2008
With the multitude of books to have come out in recent years discussing China's economic progress, I was reluctant to read yet another China-is-rising narrative. I'm glad I gave this book a chance, however, because Oded Shenkar frames his analysis in a highly original way. Specifically, Shenkar offers three new factors to consider in thinking about China. First, Shenkar begins by debunking the conventional wisdom that states China's rise is a similar phenomenon to its regional neighbors, the East Asian Tigers. While the East Asian Tigers were emerging economies in territories that had no historical precedence of wealth or industry, China was, at one point in its long history, the world's largest economy. Therefore, any analysis of China's rise should avoid framing China as a developing nation. Instead, Shenkar urges us to think of China as an empire making a comeback. The second factor Shenkar offers regards Communism's influence over Chinese society, which, Shenkar argues, is highly overstated. In fact, if one takes a broad view of Chinese history, one comes to realize that China's Communist era, which began around 1949, is but a very brief, albeit traumatic, period in China's narrative. Understanding the China of today, then, requires a study of China's ancient, imperial dynasties with their complex bureaucratic organizations and their feudal social arrangements. According to Shenkar, this portion of China's history has far more relevant parallels to contemporary China. The third factor shenkar puts forward for our consideration is a new way of conceptualizing China as a entity unbounded by territory. Shenkar argues that we should broaden our concept of China to include the Chinese diaspora communities of East Asia. This new vision of China would include Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and even portions of Thailand. The basis for this inclusion rests on the idea that East Asia's Chinese diaspora have established themselves as the business elites in the various nations they've settled into. Following Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms of the late 70s, these business elites have been instrumental on two fronts. One -- pulling global capital into mainland China; and two -- providing the financial expertise to manage China's newly acquired capital. Thus, any understanding of China's rise must include East Asia's Chinese diaspora, in the picture.
Oded Shenkar's book is not the best place to start reading about China because it assumes the reader is well versed in Chinese history, global markets, and East Asian affairs. However, if you've done your share of reading and thinking about what the rise of a potential East Asian superpower might mean to the international system, this is an excellent read.
Oded Shenkar's book is not the best place to start reading about China because it assumes the reader is well versed in Chinese history, global markets, and East Asian affairs. However, if you've done your share of reading and thinking about what the rise of a potential East Asian superpower might mean to the international system, this is an excellent read.
August 29, 2019
How China is changing the game
The Twentieth was the American Century. Of that there can be little doubt as the US became the dominant social, political, economic and military power in the world. But do current rapid economic advances by China allow us to suppose that the Twenty-First will be "The Chinese Century"? It would appear that Ohio State business Professor Oded Shenkar thinks so.
He is clear about the parallel: "China's rise has more in common with the rise of the United States a century earlier than with the progress of its modern-day predecessors and followers." (Read: Japan and the Asian "tigers": South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.) (p. 1) He adds, "If current trends continue, China will surpass the US to become the world's largest economy (in purchasing-power parity terms) in two decades--possibly sooner." (p. 161)
However, as for China dominating the world in the 21st century the way the US has in the 20th--well, I think we can say the crystal ball remains cloudy, maybe even downright muddy. Consider that prior to the assent of Deng Xiaoping as the Chinese leader, China was floundering under the weight of a Soviet-style economy, and had gone through the disastrous "Great Leap Forward" and the horrific "Cultural Revolution." When Deng Xiaoping goes the way of all leaders, what makes anyone think that his replacement will be any better than a host of Soviet leaders or equal even to Mao Zedong, whose political and military genius did not preclude his having a disastrous effect on China similar to that of Stalin on Russia?
Deng had the genius to free the Chinese economy from the shackles of communism in his famous "one country, two systems" vision. Whether such a hybrid vision can long endure is a very good question, and whether Deng's successors will continue his policies is also problematic. My guess is they will be so focused on gaining and maintaining power that they will allow the country to regress economically. Furthermore, should China somehow throw off the communist mantle entirely, who is to say it will not--as Russia has done--revert to a corrupt, bandit sort of economy?
What this book is mainly about is the way China does business today and how that affects the global marketplace, and in particular what it is doing to the US economy. Some interesting points:
"...between 10 and 30 percent of China's GDP comes from piracy and counterfeiting." (p.86) The question is, how does the rest of the world meet this challenge?
"A key reason behind the remarkably fast penetration of Chinese products into the US market is a retail landscape increasingly dominated by large retailers." (p. 149) The largest of these is Wal-Mart "which accounts for more than 10 percent of the US imports from China." (p. 150) Shenkar notes that the Chinese "need...large retailers to take their growing production capacity... Thus, the fates of Wal-Mart and the Chinese industry will remain closely intertwined for years to come." (p. 151)
Right now China leads the world in the manufacturing of toys. It is now or soon will be the number one manufacturer of furniture, and as Shenkar points out, not just low-end furniture, but top-end as well. Shenkar speculates, "Given the general overcapacity in industry and the technological edge of the newer China plants, it is difficult to see how automotive manufacturing in the developed markets such as the United States and Europe will not be affected." (p. 114) Furthermore, most TVs made today are made in China, and that includes plasma and high definition models. The reason for this real "great leap forward" in manufacturing is first the leadership of Deng Xiaoping and incentives from the Chinese government, and second the vast amount of cheap Chinese labor.
But Japan once made the cheapest goods in the world, and then made (as China is now doing) better and better products, and still sold them for less. However, today, the Japanese economy is stagnate and the reasons are mostly cultural. From the evidence that Shenkar presents, I think it is easy to guess that China's economy will eventually stagnate as well, and also for cultural and political reasons.
There is much to chew on and think about in this book, but what I found myself wondering about was the future of the US as a service economy. Obviously, even if China relinquishes some of its dominance in manufacturing, it won't be the US with its expensive labor that will take up the slack. What the US is doing, as Shenkar notes, is becoming more and more dependent on services, especially in technology and education, to maintain its economic supremacy. He warns that "we have no precedent of a major economy that is predominantly dependent on services," noting that successful service economies tend to be small, e.g., "Luxembourg, Hong Kong, and Hawaii." (p. 164)
What I thought about when reading this is that the US can work as a service economy if it continues to (1) have the best universities in the world; (2) be a great tourist destination (with relatively clean air and water); and (3) be a great place to live (freedom and security can make for some very lofty real estate values!).
One thing that Shenkar does not address (although he mentions it in passing) is the horrendous pollution problem that the Chinese already face. Their great cities are looking more and more like London during the Industrial Revolution. What will be the health cost to China in the long run? And will the Chinese people continue to be so productive or will they leave the polluted cities, or worse, revolt?
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
The Twentieth was the American Century. Of that there can be little doubt as the US became the dominant social, political, economic and military power in the world. But do current rapid economic advances by China allow us to suppose that the Twenty-First will be "The Chinese Century"? It would appear that Ohio State business Professor Oded Shenkar thinks so.
He is clear about the parallel: "China's rise has more in common with the rise of the United States a century earlier than with the progress of its modern-day predecessors and followers." (Read: Japan and the Asian "tigers": South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.) (p. 1) He adds, "If current trends continue, China will surpass the US to become the world's largest economy (in purchasing-power parity terms) in two decades--possibly sooner." (p. 161)
However, as for China dominating the world in the 21st century the way the US has in the 20th--well, I think we can say the crystal ball remains cloudy, maybe even downright muddy. Consider that prior to the assent of Deng Xiaoping as the Chinese leader, China was floundering under the weight of a Soviet-style economy, and had gone through the disastrous "Great Leap Forward" and the horrific "Cultural Revolution." When Deng Xiaoping goes the way of all leaders, what makes anyone think that his replacement will be any better than a host of Soviet leaders or equal even to Mao Zedong, whose political and military genius did not preclude his having a disastrous effect on China similar to that of Stalin on Russia?
Deng had the genius to free the Chinese economy from the shackles of communism in his famous "one country, two systems" vision. Whether such a hybrid vision can long endure is a very good question, and whether Deng's successors will continue his policies is also problematic. My guess is they will be so focused on gaining and maintaining power that they will allow the country to regress economically. Furthermore, should China somehow throw off the communist mantle entirely, who is to say it will not--as Russia has done--revert to a corrupt, bandit sort of economy?
What this book is mainly about is the way China does business today and how that affects the global marketplace, and in particular what it is doing to the US economy. Some interesting points:
"...between 10 and 30 percent of China's GDP comes from piracy and counterfeiting." (p.86) The question is, how does the rest of the world meet this challenge?
"A key reason behind the remarkably fast penetration of Chinese products into the US market is a retail landscape increasingly dominated by large retailers." (p. 149) The largest of these is Wal-Mart "which accounts for more than 10 percent of the US imports from China." (p. 150) Shenkar notes that the Chinese "need...large retailers to take their growing production capacity... Thus, the fates of Wal-Mart and the Chinese industry will remain closely intertwined for years to come." (p. 151)
Right now China leads the world in the manufacturing of toys. It is now or soon will be the number one manufacturer of furniture, and as Shenkar points out, not just low-end furniture, but top-end as well. Shenkar speculates, "Given the general overcapacity in industry and the technological edge of the newer China plants, it is difficult to see how automotive manufacturing in the developed markets such as the United States and Europe will not be affected." (p. 114) Furthermore, most TVs made today are made in China, and that includes plasma and high definition models. The reason for this real "great leap forward" in manufacturing is first the leadership of Deng Xiaoping and incentives from the Chinese government, and second the vast amount of cheap Chinese labor.
But Japan once made the cheapest goods in the world, and then made (as China is now doing) better and better products, and still sold them for less. However, today, the Japanese economy is stagnate and the reasons are mostly cultural. From the evidence that Shenkar presents, I think it is easy to guess that China's economy will eventually stagnate as well, and also for cultural and political reasons.
There is much to chew on and think about in this book, but what I found myself wondering about was the future of the US as a service economy. Obviously, even if China relinquishes some of its dominance in manufacturing, it won't be the US with its expensive labor that will take up the slack. What the US is doing, as Shenkar notes, is becoming more and more dependent on services, especially in technology and education, to maintain its economic supremacy. He warns that "we have no precedent of a major economy that is predominantly dependent on services," noting that successful service economies tend to be small, e.g., "Luxembourg, Hong Kong, and Hawaii." (p. 164)
What I thought about when reading this is that the US can work as a service economy if it continues to (1) have the best universities in the world; (2) be a great tourist destination (with relatively clean air and water); and (3) be a great place to live (freedom and security can make for some very lofty real estate values!).
One thing that Shenkar does not address (although he mentions it in passing) is the horrendous pollution problem that the Chinese already face. Their great cities are looking more and more like London during the Industrial Revolution. What will be the health cost to China in the long run? And will the Chinese people continue to be so productive or will they leave the polluted cities, or worse, revolt?
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
July 6, 2017
I have read this book in 2017 and almost all of Oded Shenkar's predictions for China and its affection on Word economy came true. Highly recommend!
April 25, 2025
Amazing things are happening in the Middle Kingdom!
January 16, 2023
Mình đọc quyển sách này lúc này tính ra là outdated rồi nhưng thật sự những dự đoán về Trung Quốc trong này khá đúng tính đến thời điểm hiện tại.
Notes về n~ con hổ ở châu Á:
TQ chiếm ưu thế hơn hẳn trong những ngành sản xuất cần nhiều lao động: những nhà máy của TQ tạo ra 70% đồ chơi, 60% xe đạp, 50% giày dép, và 1/3 túi xách trên thế giới. Sau đó, họ cũng bắt nhịp rất nhanh với những ngành sản xuất cần nhiều công nghệ: 1/2 lò vi sóng, 1/3 ti vi & điều hoà, 1/4 máy giặt và 1/5 tủ lạnh trên thế giới.
Sau khi quân đội Tưởng Giới Thạch chạy đến Đài Loan, họ thiết lập một nền kinh tế với những doanh nghiệp gia đình với sự giúp đỡ của người Mỹ. Sau đó, ĐL gia nhập nền kinh tế toàn cầu với tư cách nhà xưởng sản xuất chi phí thấp (giống đại lục), rồi dần dần phát triển tiềm lực kỹ thuật và nỗ lực đạt tới sự thống trị toàn cầu với máy tính xách tay Acer.
Singapore và Hồng Kông có đặc điểm khá giống nhau: thị trường khá tự do, quy mô nhỏ bé và có vị trí trung tâm xuất nhập khẩu.
HQ: Con hổ duy nhất ko mang yếu tố TQ (mặc dù bị ảnh hưởng nặng bởi đạo Khổng). Năm 50: GDP đầu người chỉ bằng châu Phi với nền kinh tế trồng trọt mà phát triển nhanh đến nỗi bây giờ đã thành cường quốc công nghệ.
Notes về n~ con hổ ở châu Á:
TQ chiếm ưu thế hơn hẳn trong những ngành sản xuất cần nhiều lao động: những nhà máy của TQ tạo ra 70% đồ chơi, 60% xe đạp, 50% giày dép, và 1/3 túi xách trên thế giới. Sau đó, họ cũng bắt nhịp rất nhanh với những ngành sản xuất cần nhiều công nghệ: 1/2 lò vi sóng, 1/3 ti vi & điều hoà, 1/4 máy giặt và 1/5 tủ lạnh trên thế giới.
Sau khi quân đội Tưởng Giới Thạch chạy đến Đài Loan, họ thiết lập một nền kinh tế với những doanh nghiệp gia đình với sự giúp đỡ của người Mỹ. Sau đó, ĐL gia nhập nền kinh tế toàn cầu với tư cách nhà xưởng sản xuất chi phí thấp (giống đại lục), rồi dần dần phát triển tiềm lực kỹ thuật và nỗ lực đạt tới sự thống trị toàn cầu với máy tính xách tay Acer.
Singapore và Hồng Kông có đặc điểm khá giống nhau: thị trường khá tự do, quy mô nhỏ bé và có vị trí trung tâm xuất nhập khẩu.
HQ: Con hổ duy nhất ko mang yếu tố TQ (mặc dù bị ảnh hưởng nặng bởi đạo Khổng). Năm 50: GDP đầu người chỉ bằng châu Phi với nền kinh tế trồng trọt mà phát triển nhanh đến nỗi bây giờ đã thành cường quốc công nghệ.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
February 7, 2017
"El impacto chino ya es visible en la manera en como se fijan los precios, con presiones deflacionistas a nivel de ventas al por menor e inflacionistas en materias primas y logística. En el mercado al por menor, las importaciones chinas están reduciendo los márgenes pero los peces gordos están obligados a salirse del agua a los peces más chicos que carecen de sofisticadas cadenas de suministros. Esto se está viendo en líneas de productos que dominan los chinos (tales como los juguetes), en las cuales firmas como Wal-Mart tiene acorraladas a otras pequeñas y grandes empresas. Al mismo tiempo, la demanda china está presionando hacia arriba los precios del cobre, el titanio, el níquel, el caucho, el mineral de hierro, el acero, el carbón y el petróleo, y hasta el cartón, entre otros materiales. El precio de la chatarra de acero, materia prima indispensable para muchos productores de los Estados Unidos y que hoy están importando a los chinos en grandes cantidades, se ha ido por las nubes, pues subió más del 33% en sólo el primer trimestre de 2004.
Fuera del impacto inmediato, las ondas del choque que la China produce repercutirán durante años, aún cuando por el momento estén bajo el radar, porque tardarán algún tiempo en evolucionar y porque son menos visibles o más difícil de discernir, puesto que encierran múltiples variables, de las cuales el impacto es sólo una. Un ejemplo es el efecto en la contaminación y el calentamiento global; otro es la integración de la economía clásica en torno a la China como núcleo; y otro, en fin, es un cambio fundamental de las corrientes migratorias del mundo. El impacto chino no es, pues, un par de golpes sino más bien una reestructuración gradual de la economía, los negocios y la política, que se irá realizando en los años y décadas por venir." Oded Shenkar, 2005.
Fuera del impacto inmediato, las ondas del choque que la China produce repercutirán durante años, aún cuando por el momento estén bajo el radar, porque tardarán algún tiempo en evolucionar y porque son menos visibles o más difícil de discernir, puesto que encierran múltiples variables, de las cuales el impacto es sólo una. Un ejemplo es el efecto en la contaminación y el calentamiento global; otro es la integración de la economía clásica en torno a la China como núcleo; y otro, en fin, es un cambio fundamental de las corrientes migratorias del mundo. El impacto chino no es, pues, un par de golpes sino más bien una reestructuración gradual de la economía, los negocios y la política, que se irá realizando en los años y décadas por venir." Oded Shenkar, 2005.
August 4, 2014
Desde Leader Summaries recomendamos la lectura del libro El siglo chino, de Oded Shenkar.
Las personas interesadas en las siguientes temáticas lo encontrarán práctico y útil: innovación, globalización.
En el siguiente enlace tienes el resumen del libro El siglo chino, Un recorrido por el pasado y presente de un país llamado a convertirse en potencia mundial: El siglo chino
Las personas interesadas en las siguientes temáticas lo encontrarán práctico y útil: innovación, globalización.
En el siguiente enlace tienes el resumen del libro El siglo chino, Un recorrido por el pasado y presente de un país llamado a convertirse en potencia mundial: El siglo chino
January 18, 2008
It gave quite a comprehensive picture of China, it's economy, politics and social development. China is sure to be No. 1 in different aspects in near future. Only problem is Oded wrote it from the perspective of American job and adverse impact on America on whole. It is a good read for global reader, but because of the way of writing, frightening for American ones.
February 1, 2016
Not high on this book as I found it a bit too academic. The book I read by Susan Shirk is much better on the subject of China.
April 3, 2017
China is a rising tide different from any other economic and political power in known history with the patience and discipline to wait for the right moment to smoothly assume global leadership.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews