Бъдещето на успеха

by Robert B. Reich, Робърт Б. Рейч

Авторът Робърт Б. Рейч ни поднася мъдър поглед над природата на нашето съществуване, като открехва вратата, за да ни представи своето разбиране за множеството социални, икономически, политически и философски проблеми, свързани с отделната личност и обществото като цяло. Книгата не предлага решения, нито голи истини, с които да общуваме, напротив - аналитичността в твърденията се превръщат в смирение, което от своя страна удвоява силата на убежденията на автора.

Това, което завладява в тази книга, е фактът, че духът на Робърт Б. Рейч струи във всяка нейна фибра и ни призовава: Carpe diem! (Улови мига!). Да се събудиш от съня, в който съществуваш, за да избереш своя собствен път на възприятия, на труд и изобщо на съществуване. Път, който изключва обществото без идеи и се вглежда в бъдещето, за да открие и разбере настоящето. Път, в който работата е само една част, при това не единствената от нашия живот.

"Бъдещето на успеха" е не просто книга, посветена на разбирането на новия тип култура и социални взаимоотношения, които идват заедно с новата икономика, търсеща все по-добрата и по-добрата сделка. Тя е дълбоко философска книга, която си поставя за цел да изследва духа в екстремните ситуации на всекидневието. Погледната във философски план "Бъдещето на успеха" търси като краен резултат плода на духа - "любов, наслада, мир, спокойствие, доброта, милост, вярност, нежност и самоконтрол"!

Genres: Economics, Nonfiction, Business, Politics, Sociology, Current Affairs, Labor

237 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2000

About the author

Robert Bernard Reich is an American politician, academic, and political commentator. He served as Secretary of Labor under President Bill Clinton from 1993 to 1997. Reich is a former Harvard University professor and the former Maurice B. Hexter Professor of Social and Economic Policy at the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University. He is currently a professor at the University of California, Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy. Mr. Reich is also on the board of directors of Tutor.com. He is a trustee of the Economists for Peace and Security. He is an occasional political commentator, notably on Hardball with Chris Matthews, This Week with George Stephanopoulos and CNBC's Kudlow & Company.

Reviews

[Patrick · Rating 3 out of 5]

Informative but depressing book on how the new economy is changing the way society functions. Individual choice to live the best life we can is exacerbating income inequalities and difference in opportunities b/w resource rich and resource poor populations.

Reich states the challenge is how to live in a new economy with its rapid changes while keeping our values such as family, community, and friends. Even though we all seek balance, Reich suggests that we work longer and harder than previous generations b/c the competition in the new economy demands it. He states that globalization and technology are to blame for the widening disparity b/w the blue-collared workers and the educated entrepreneurs who create the technologies that are displacing the blue-collared workers in the first place.

The Age of the Terrific Deal:

American are a restless bunch always looking for the best deal. Reich states that American's are both curious and greedy and that immigrants self-selected themselves to be adventurous by coming to America. From the bland mass production of the 20th century, we are now in the era of targeted consumer preference at a reduced price b/c of intense competition for products. Reich is exuberant about the economy's products via infrastructure of the Internet to be allocated where it is needed. By looking @ the Internet, one can look for the highest quality @ the best prices. This is all great for the consumer but it spells trouble for the producer who has to continually innovate in order to survive.

The Spirit of Innovation:

The reason inflation is no longer an issue is b/c people try to out innovate each other and slash their prices in order to keep up with the competition. According to Schumpeter, an Austria economists, entrepreneurs need to be temporary patent protection so they will want to innovate but only temporarily so they would innovate some more and not sit on their laurels forever. The new economy means people will succeed but that success comes at a price of continuously cutting costs, adding value to a given product, or inventing new products that the market wants (something Steve Jobs was excellent doing). With an increase of information in the marketplace, sellers will have a harder time differentiating itself from the competition while buyers have a hard time looking for exactly what they want. Reich says that in order for brand names to survive the cacophony of competition, they are turning into guides that outsources its production elsewhere while keeping its brand in tact which he dubs "brand portals". The recent trend toward niche entrepreneurship that innovates to continuously make a better product @ a lower cost coincides with M&A of Brand-portals that use their name so that buyers linked to trustworthy sellers. He cites the need for intelligent agents who will "know" a buyers personal preference in order to keep brand loyalty.

Government steps in when excessive brand loyalty destroys competition and thus destroys innovation.

The future is bright for creative innovators with technical skills to take advantage of the information age. Technology increases the value of creativity by allowing it to be spread quickly throughout an organization's network and, ultimately, to consumers. Steve Jobs was unique in combing the geeks love for discovering novelty with the shrinks ability to find latent desires within people.

A geeks pleasure is linked to the novelty and discovery. They seek new possibilities. His value is in creating new options not merely picking from a set of available options available to him. Shrinks are people who can find what people want and his latent desires. He finds the opportunity in which people would find the geeks products useful. With the intensity of the competition becoming an issue, shrinks are crowding out the geeks in trying to satisfy the market and remain economically viable.

Whereas the demand for creative innovators are rising, the demand for routine workers are falling so that their wages are stagnant. During the mid-20th century when competition was not yet fierce, institutional bonds were stronger with an implicit social compact in place where loyalty to a company gets a person a well paying job. Now head of companies are most concern on having a high stock prices for their shareholders. Executives now have to raise stock prices in order to make more money which makes him cut costs (jobs) and produce better products.

While this trend makes the products we buy better, it makes all jobs and earnings less secure while wages and benefits of routine production workers erode. We as consumers vote for depressed wages when we buy a cheaper product. Business look @ the bottom line to the degree that "socially responsibility" helps the bottomline it will be perpetuated but if it does not help it, it gets discarded. Loyalty to a company now means a lack of ambition since it is assumed that if companies aren't loyal to people then people should be loyal to them. The stigma of being fired b/c of layoffs does not reflect the worth of the person. In the new economy, everyone has to act like an entrepreneur. Consumers and Investors are driving competition which increases value and decreases price which in turn depresses wages.

The scary part of an economy of entrepreneurs is that there is no specific entity one can blame in case something goes wrong. Thus, the Government Health care website might not have worked even if it was ran by a for-profit firm who may have subcontracted it to several sources companies.

Prior to the industrial age, wage work was not the norm. During the industrial age, workers were given responsibility according to their seniority. The longer a person stays within the company the more he is likely to get the benefits that accrue due to his loyalty. In the present information age, there is the end of steady work with a steady wage and predictable benefits. Since creativity is at a greater premium, the youth make greater money than the old who have experience and wisdom. Working hours are becoming obsolete in favor of working 24/7 days a week that is task-driven b/c of the global nature of the economy. The income inequality can be attributed to the higher wages being paid to the most creative innovators while lower wages are paid to those who are routine workers. The routine workers could easily be replaced whereas the creative innovators were in demand. Incidentally, the idea of personal responsibility and freedom of contract is coming back into vogue since employers and employees no longer have a symbiotic relationship.

In the new economy, people work harder and longer hours. One has to see work in terms of a calling and it has to have meaning for the individual in order for him to be into it. Work is intruding into our personal life while family, friends, and hobbies are getting pushed into the background. This trend is happening b/c blue-collared workers are getting kicked out of the labor force as well as flattening/declining wages for men in blue-collared jobs as well as single-household parents becoming more common. Unable to predict future earnings, people tend to work as hard as they can when jobs with decent pay are readily available to them as well as people taking on more debt to get them over the hump until the next job with decent pay is available to them. People also have to out hustle the competition. Even people at the top have to watch out for the competition thus making them work harder for longer hours. If a person takes a break for awhile, he might be doing it for good since the competition is intense.

The inequality b/w families with both spouses with college degrees has risen at a pace that outstrips families where neither spouses have college degrees b/c women with college degrees have a lot more opportunities that is interesting and fulfilling. The income inequality gap also explains the never ending rat race to the top since every single drop in the rung to success means a wider drop, one does not want to drop a little bit. People in countries where wage inequality is the biggest work the hardest while Germany also a rich country but the wage inequality is narrower do not work as hard.

THE SALE OF SELF:

Selling yourself and networking is what causes one to advance in a world where everyone is an entrepreneur and every work is contractual. Colleges value is networking with future captains of industry. Conventions serve as node for networking opportunities. With the proliferation of new modes of communications, people rely more and more on their personal networks for hiring decisions. In the new economy, it is motivation and creativity that makes a person better candidate than a person without these skills. The first step is to get into a brand then create your own within that brand which the brand will pay you b/c you are in demand. Now a days people determine their worth relative to others by the paycheck they receive. While mid-20th century got to where they are by being well-liked, early 21st century advance by marketing themselves well. The market-driven success makes personality up for sale crowding out ones personal life.

In politics, the concerns of the wealthy gets heard over the concerns of others b/c their proximity to power is closer than normal population. Politicians brand can overcome party affiliation or principles.


THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING FAMILY:

Since 30 years ago, there has been a shift from married children with kids to unmarried people without kids. The shift is due to:

1) women have greater control in their reproductive health with the pill, abortion, and other contraceptives

2) the wage stagnation of blue collared men means blue-collared women have to work more now than they did in the past

3) college educated women are working harder b/c the opportunities for women are greater too. What this means is that women have to compete like the men leaving less time for family. It think whomever makes less money should be on the slow track whereas the more successful of the two should be on the fast track

As a result of the above, women are having less children b/c they cannot afford them or they do not have time or energy for them. In the emerging economy, once a woman has kids they have devote more time to them. Marriage is also on the decline since a man's earning ability is decreasing compared to a woman's. Interesting that black women with college degrees earn as much as white women with college degrees while black men still earn less than white men. Reich states that percentages are misleading b/c in reality there has been a general decrease in birthrate which is greater for married women than unmarried which results in the percentage of illegitimate children being inflated.

All welfare reform did was save govt money b/c the welfare poor became the working poor, not having money enough to support the family. It did nothing to lift the people out of poverty. Whereas during the Gilded Age people have household help so that they had more leisure time, today people have help b/c they need it to do more work. They figure the return they get from working is higher than the cost to them of subcontracting. Subcontracting the work has multiplier effect in the economy.


PAYING FOR ATTENTION:

According to Reich, a growth market in which machines and outsourcing cannot touch is in the field of personal attention. The growth of attention industry is due to the increase # of people who are working harder and subcontracting more of what had been family responsibility and the growth of productivity machines make blue-collared jobs switch toward the service sector. Personal attention appears to improve the health of the patient. The best predictor for the elderly health is emotional support and attention from other people.

Perhaps while Facebook is a good tool to keep tabs on people one does not usually see, you would rather see a person face-to-face rather than talk to them on the phone or email them. The wealthy get personal attention which in an automated world becomes more important.

Whereas the guilded age people used their money so they had an infinite capacity for leisure, today's rich pay personal attention b/c they have to spend time @ work. People pay for attention now whereas everyone else can have cheaper deals for things. For the airlines industry, they are undercutting the price for coach class with the competition in mind while making up their margins in first-class and business class as that is where they are making most of their money. What is offered by these people is personal attention that they can offer. Massage is great for reducing stress hormones.

For the elderly, attentive care means much more than custodial care. Child care also shows that attentive stable care is superior to simple custodial care.

Although personal attention industry is a growth area, it does not pay as well as the creative innovative parts of the economy b/c the amount of people that one can impact is small, there is a huge supply for a given demand, and society does not value them. Personal Attention is a new industry that people need but the harried life of a person makes it less likely the personal attendant can give adequate support for the people who need it.

THE COMMUNITY AS COMMODITY:

We are looking at community as consumers instead of participants. We are moving to communities that expresses who we are as individuals more than ever before and away from communities that we were born in. The most desirable members are those who can contribute the most while demand the least. Perhaps, this is the reason you are hesitant to network right now b/c you are more of a drain right now rather than a contributor to society. The rich are self-segregating into their own neighborhoods leaving the poor on their own.

In school children, peer effects have a large determinant to if they will go to college or not. Children of less able are helped by being in more able class room. Perhaps charter schools help b/c it self-selects the people who get in it. B/c parents rightly want the best education for their children, the parceling of rich from poor students are making it harder for poor children to have the network needed to succeed in the new economy. The pressure for getting the best education for children extends to college education.

Insurance when it was blind was fair for all b/c people would pay based on not knowing the risk that they would need the help but now that information is readily available the rational insurance business has an incentive to "cherry pick" healthier less needy clients rather than seeking people based on blindness of risk assessment. Leadership has switch from making decisions to bundling money and talent. Local governments are trying to keep educated people with skills by slashing income taxes (effects upper income population more)while raising sales tax (effects lower income more). The increase of in-state tuition price for universities corresponds to the fact that more educated people are likely to move out of state.

PERSONAL CHOICE

The more educated a person the more likely he will work harder. Children of the affluent seem to be working harder than children of the less affluent. Despite the lip service for wanting a balanced life, Americans want to work harder b/c work is organized and rewarded in America in a manner that induces harder work: there's more uncertainty, wider inequality, more sorting, and more intense competition. In order to stop the rat race, people try to re-prioritize, manage their time better or live simply though simplifying is subjective. He says that personal choices without taking into consideration public choices is doomed to failure b/c public policy frames our personal choices.

PUBLIC CHOICE:

Reich's prescription to maximize the benefits of the new economy while tempering its risks include:

1) providing wholesale income insurance so that year to year fluctuations can be avoided

2) invest in better education and a retirement plan that is portable for each person and start up funds for people once they reach age 18

3) personal care services should be paid more and highly respected while business should have flex time to all its employees. The tax system should make child care and elderly care a business expense deductible in ones income tax and a tax credit should be given to stay @ home parents up to the age of 3.

4) to address the school quality issue, Reich is proposing to do away with property tax in favor of a national tax based on each individuals net worth to fund the nations schools equally.

He cites the 3 main conversations that are taking place b/c of the new economy: 1) consumers and investors are happy about the deals that we are finding 2) sellers are afraid of the global competition and technology that is competing for their livelihood 3) each individual is looking for a more balanced life amid the upheavals that the new economy is making

[Hubert · Rating 4 out of 5]

Former Clinton Labor Secretary (and now Progressive pundit) Robert Reich put out this 2001 exegesis on labor, social mobility, and which portended some of the issues that we're running into today politically and socially on a much larger scale.

The book starts off with the Panglossian view that technology, worker mobility, "great deals" are a good thing, that ultimately free trade and globalization allows us the freedom to buy whatever whenever we want. It was surprising to read this from the 2001 Reich, knowing what I know of his writings in 2021.

Later in the book Reich outlines some of the weaknesses and pitfalls of the idealistic early 2000s - the decimation of community, the conversion of interpersonal relationships to relationships "for sale," the privatization of the public good, including education, caretaking industries, and neighborhoods (turning into homeowners' associations).

Ultimately he advocates for a balanced approach, one that doesn't send us back to an age of protectionism or tariffs, but one that isn't freely laissez-faire either. One that trades away some of our working hours for some better quality family / alone / reflective time.

I found it rather endearing to be reading this 20 years after pub date ~ so much optimism exudes from the book, one just wonders "what happened" to get where we are from the last 20 years. Interestingly this book gives some clues. This was written before the 2008 Recession, before the 2016 election ... its naivete about the darker side of the American narrative renders the overall argument a bit quaint and, ultimately, somewhat dated.

Still Reich is an excellent communicator, and this book represents a good window into his prior thinking. I recommend following his substack - he outlines many contemporary issues in the same concise language used in this book (perhaps with even more incision, precision, and concision!).

[cesar · Rating 4 out of 5]

wow he basically called it on everything

[Gabe · Rating 3 out of 5]

three stars because Reich provides a refreshing and accessible summary of the social and interpersonal consequences of our high-tech global economy, but reduces our future prospects to a false dichotomy between neo-luddism or a return to the regulatory state. while the policy proposals at the end of the book should be taken seriously as an actionable and transitional politics, the author makes his liberalism painfully apparent: the excesses of capitalism are viewed as bugs not features, and our best hopes, apparently, lie in policing the market. in other words, little discussion is given to the possibility that capitalist growth and the decisions of corporate executives impose an autocratic regime onto collective material needs in a way that might warrant more radically rethinking our economic system.

[Mark Oppenlander · Rating 4 out of 5]

Robert Reich is an economist and a former US Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration. In this book, he describes some of the macro trends that affect how we work and live in the 21st century.

Reich's basic premise is this: The dual forces of information technology and globalization are leading to better and better deals for consumers. Each of us (especially those of us in the developed world) now has the ability to access a nearly infinite array of goods and services of high quality at greater speed than at any time in history. And, if we don't like the goods and services we have chosen, we can quickly and easily switch to something we prefer with minimal cost. Reich calls this "the era of the terrific deal."

All of this would be great news if we were only consumers. But each of us is also a producer. So as producers, or workers, these dual forces increase the competitive landscape in which we function. This means that our work is more tenuous than it has ever been before. We must work harder, faster and smarter or someone else will steal our customers from us, take our job or introduce a disruptive innovation that makes our industry irrelevant. So this is the bad news.

This book was both encouraging and discouraging. First, it was encouraging to me personally because it validated my experience as a working professional. I've sometimes tried to explain to my parents and others of their generation that the workplace has changed. Institutional loyalty is a thing of the past (Reich explains why) and we all work harder than we ever have before. The 40 hour work week is, for most of us, a thing of the past. And even when we're not "on the clock" we're connected to our work through electronic communications devices. Reich ties these changes to the movement away from the "factory" mindset of the 19th and 20th century which was tied to large-scale production of homogenized products, an era which he sees as anomalous in the history of human work. But the increasing ability to customize consumer solutions offered by the new economy is a different paradigm and it changes the way in which we work. I have experienced this first-hand over the past 20 years and I finally felt like I was not alone in saying, "Something's changed."

The discouraging part of this book is that Reich does not offer any foolproof solutions to the dilemma we face. To be sure, his last couple of chapters delve into the kinds of personal and societal choices we might make to limit the harm caused by the new economy - problems such as income inequality, fragmented family lives, etc. - but none of these solutions are sure fire and many seem unlikely to be implemented, given the divisive and stagnated political climate we face today.

Still, understanding a problem is the first step to addressing it and this book lays out the dilemma of the modern workplace clearly and understandably. You don't have to be an economist to "get it." This is essential reading for anyone who cares about how we work today.

[Roger · Rating 4 out of 5]

Long story short: the New Economy differs from the Old in that there is increased volatility, and a feedback cycle coming into play. Highly variable pay and prices are pitted against highly static needs like food, shelter, and childrearing.

Unlike cable TV, one cannot skimp on food for a week because they can't afford their bills. Any time where the wave is lower than the needs, there is social stress from a mismatch.

The feedback cycle results from the rich and creative becoming richer, which can beget creative children. For the smart among us, modern society is a miracle. We can earn 6 figure sums just from websites, from giving sound advice, to creating programs and music which millions enjoy. The opposite of a virtuous cycle, however, is a vicious cycle. Those who can't perform such feats are in the dumps.

His solutions either smoothing out the sine wave, such as taxes on fast-moving imports or insurance policies to compensate people and communities under flux. If your income drops 50% in a single year, half of that will be covered.

I personally see myself as one of the lucky ones, the smart people who CAN and WILL make it in life. I see the rewards as just compensation for what we contribute. The problem is that people have different senses of equality.

I believe in O/I = O/I : for every ounce they give to society, everyone gets back the same amount. However, some people have more ounces to give, so they get more.

But how do you define Input and Output? By how much you better society, or the hours you put in? It is when you compare those with valued skills vs. unvalued skills that the gulf is readily apparent.

Although this book can be considered "bleeding heart," I feel that it is thought provoking enough that people who want to change the world should read it, if only to determine how they want to change it.

[Kay · Rating 4 out of 5]

I first was exposed to Robert Reich in the documentary Inequality for All. Of course, I want to read his new book, Saving Capitalism, but thought I'd start with this book to check out his future predictions. (This was published in 2000 so really a lot has happened since then.) I found this amazingly accurate and dead on even for today. The trends he saw are moving full steam ahead. This book offers a lot of insight into the economy we're facing post-industrialism with a new sorting order that is increasing the gap between knowledge/creative workers and 'routine' workers. Even though this is a fairly thin volume, I had to back up and read slowly to fully absorb the impact. There are a lot of interesting observations such as the economic factors have more to with family structures than moral issues. Decisions have to be made between financial opportunities and what's given up for those opportunities. Of course, everyone has individual choice. However, when the majority chose a certain course of action(s), then that sets the trend for society. I'm looking forward to reading more books by Mr. Reich.

[Audrey and Eli · Rating 4 out of 5]

Until I saw the Forbes article on Rober Reich's new book, I had forgotten that I had read this book (no fault of the author's, I've just been losing my memory, or maybe my mind). First he is an excellent writer, second he jokes at himself (mostly his stature or lack thereof), and third he is one smart guy with a tremendous level of insight. The book may be several years old, but unless you have already earned a lifetime's worth of income for you and your heirs, take some time and read this book. It's not a quick read, but it reads quickly and you will have a much clearer picture of what is going on in the world markets and how we smart, educated and entitled Americans can keep our in-home theatres and year-round hot tubs.

[Nikhil Mahadea · Rating 1 out of 5]

I really like Robert Reich. I think he's doing a great job on Twitter defending justice, morality, and science. But I found this book to be a waste of time.

This book is 20 years old now. "Working...in the new economy" has changed and there are better books to reflect that. The "Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future." I think is a better book for our time.

Still, nothing against the author. I love Mr. Reich, a true gentleman.

[Howard · Rating 5 out of 5]

Robert Reicht is a leading national economist, author and newsmaker who understands what is happening to our nation economically, socially and morally. Through his endeavors and others like him, I just hope and pray our nation will wake up to the realities of the political events that are guiding our nation in this decline. Thank you, Robert Reicht for your wisdom and promotion of our situation.

[Jenn · Rating 5 out of 5]

Who the fuck has my copy of this book. I really enjoyed it and now it is gone. Fess up!

[Jodi · Rating 4 out of 5]

the first of reich's books i read, i think it may be time to re-read it

[Cristi · Rating 4 out of 5]

spune lucrui evidente dar park e mai credibil pt k el banuesc k vorbeste si din experiente personale. Fericirea din viziunea unui politic/economist/jurnalist

[Lori Grant · Rating 4 out of 5]

A should-read book for knowledge workers and entrepreneurs on concepts and trends regarding visions of the future.

[Charlie Levinson · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very compelling, put a lot of things in perspective for me about the world we live in, and how much it's changed from the industrial era. I highly recommend it.

[Erica Chang · Rating 3 out of 5]

we live in a stressful world alright

[Julia · Rating 3 out of 5]

perspective adjustment for the current economic zeitgeist