Human Judgment and Social Policy : Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice

by Kenneth R. Hammond

From the O.J. Simpson verdict to peace-making in the Balkans, the critical role of human judgement--complete with its failures, flaws, and successes--has never been more hotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmark work examines the dynamics of judgement and its impact on events that take place in human society, which require the direction and control of social policy. Research on social policy typically focuses on content. This book concentrates instead on the decision-making process itself. Drawing on 50 years of empirical research in decision theory, Hammond examines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitive competence in the formation of social policies, and applies these lessons to specific examples, such as the space shuttle Challenger disaster and the health care debate. Uncertainly, he tells us, can seldom be fully eliminated; thus error is inevitable, and injustice for some unavoidable. But the capacity for make wise judgments increases to the extent
that we understand the potential pitfalls and their origin. The judgment process for example involves an ongoing rivalry between intuition and analysis, accuracy and rationality. The source of this tension requires an examination of the evolutionary roots of human judgement and how these fundamental features may be changing as our civilization increasingly becomes an information and knowledge-based society. With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author dramatizes the importance of judgment and its role in the formation of social policies which affect us all, and issues the first comprehensive examination of its underlying dynamics.

Genres: Psychology

448 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 1996

Reviews

[Eduardo · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is an excellent alternative or complement to the currently more popular decision-making books like those by Amos Tversky and Kahneman, Daniel. In the end (literally, in the conclusion and the epilogue), I think Hammond makes a case for also reading those books but he also makes clear that only reading those books is not enough. Hammond makes the case for quasirationality as perhaps better than the narrower road that Kahneman and Tversky often championed, imperfect though it may be.

The book felt a bit confusing at times, I often thought I had figured out the position Hammond was staking out only to have that idea upended a few pages later. Ultimately, the book is a metaphor for quasirationality. To quote Hammond from the conclusion, "Quasirationality is a superior form of cognition that has been the mainstay of our survival, all the while offering us all the negative consequences of an imperfect form of reasoning.” There is very rarely certainty in the situations considered here and, as a result, we should not expect certainty in our decisions, only the best we can muster.

[Doc Opp · Rating 3 out of 5]

A very thorough text which discusses why error in judgment is inevitable and the implications for social policy. Folks who are interested in cognitive psychology, economics, or statistical approaches to policy will find a lot of wisdom here. Hammond does tend to be a bit long winded at times, and so the book can require a quite a bit of motivation to get through.