Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars

by James R. Lee

This book examines the evolution of the relationship between climate change and conflict, and attempts to visualize future trends. Owing to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, current trends in climate change will not appreciably alter over the next half century even if drastic action is taken now. Changes in climate will produce unique types and modes of conflict, redefine the value of important resources, and create new challenges to maintaining social order and stability. This book examines the consequences of climate change and argues that it has and will produce two types of different types of 'cold wars' and 'hot wars'. Cold wars will occur in northern and southern latitudes as warming draws countries into possible conflict due to expanding interests in exploiting new resources and territories (inter-state conflict). Hot wars will break out around the equator as warming expands and intensifies dry areas, increasing competition for scarce resources (intra-state conflict). Conflict is not inevitable, but it will also be a consequence of how states, international institutions and people react to changes in climate. Climate change and conflict have always shaped human experiences. This book lays out the parameters of the relationship, shows its history, and forecasts its trends, offering future conditions and opportunities for changing the historical path we are on. This book will be of great interest for students of climate change and environmental security, peace and conflict studies, and IR/security studies in general. James R. Lee is a Professor in the School of International Service, American University, Washington, DC and Associate Director of American University's Center for Teaching Excellence. He is author of several books on international relations, including, most recently, Exploring the Vital Links Between Trade, Environment and Culture (2000).

Genres: Climate Change

192 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2009

Reviews

[teohjitkhiam · Rating 5 out of 5]

It is sobering to note that seven short years separates the publication of this book and the stunning electoral victory of Trump in the US presidential elections. Mystifying that the leader of a superpower nation that accounts for a significant share of global trade, leads in emission of greenhouse gas in per capita terms, & coupled with a worldwide military presence unmatched by any other nation on earth, has chosen to espouse denial of climate change (and to depart from the historic Paris Accords) that will put to risk to abiding US interests, within & without. Needless to say, many of those interests are tied in one form or another, to the interests of that of other nations; rival, friendly, neutral, or allied.

The author makes it clear mitigating actions taken now, if any, to reverse the negative effects of climate change will only bear fruit in the latter half of the 21st century. The adverse consequences from decades-long greenhouse gas emissions & extended loss of carbon sinks will make their mark up to 2050. Mr. Lee's analysis hints of a Russian resurgence on the back of exerting control over ice-free passages and resource rights at the Arctic, and agricultural exploitation of previously uncultivated lands in Siberia. China will gain significant geo-political leverage over India and the Indo-Chinese states by virtue of its control over tributary river-ways that flows into the latter. This may spell military conflict, especially with India, with both nations possessing nuclear weapons and increasingly adopting shrill nationalist overtones. However, rising sea levels may negate Beijing's land reclamation at South China Sea. And even if the Islamic State is defeated in Syria and Iraq, migrants & refugees will continue the flee the increasing desertification and resource-based conflicts of the Middle East and Sahel Belt, and make their way into Europe via the Mediterranean.

The book also encloses several striking historical examples from the past, dating back to the Homo Sapiens-Neanderthals and culminating on the cultivators-pastoralists conflicts at the Sahel. In my opinion, the historical analogies and lack of dense technical data makes will make this book easily accessible and engaging to most lay-readers. #Goodreads

[John · Rating 2 out of 5]

Lee does best when he's quoting or summarizing the theories and research of others. On his own he tries to create new terms and concepts (ETB or PTB, anyone?) or redefine more common terms (Cold War and Hot War, for example). Combined with entire chapters referring to theoretical conflicts between disputable sub-humanoids in pre-historic times as an attempt to add relevance to modern climate change and conflict, the entire book is generally unpleasant to read. Its saving qualities are Lee's reliance on the work of others and the brevity of his efforts.