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Tipping Point #3
Tipping Point: OPLAN 5015
In the midst of China’s colossal buildup, the undersea battles for control of the South China, East China, and Philippine Seas continues. China and the United States have put a majority of their submarines to sea, both seeking to affect a winning solution.
The dangers of China’s missiles persist, effectively keeping America’s mighty carriers away from the conflict. But time is running out, and an answer to the threat must be found if the United States hopes to retain any hope of keeping the South China Sea out of China’s hands.
There’s also the looming threat coming from North Korea as they mass their troops close to the DMZ. OPLAN 5015 includes contingencies for preemptive strikes against the secretive nation, but with the threat of WMDs, will they view that as a viable option?
The dangers of China’s missiles persist, effectively keeping America’s mighty carriers away from the conflict. But time is running out, and an answer to the threat must be found if the United States hopes to retain any hope of keeping the South China Sea out of China’s hands.
There’s also the looming threat coming from North Korea as they mass their troops close to the DMZ. OPLAN 5015 includes contingencies for preemptive strikes against the secretive nation, but with the threat of WMDs, will they view that as a viable option?
- GenresFiction
318 pages, Paperback
First published April 19, 2022
About the author
John O'Brien
45 books289 followersJohn O'Brien is a former Air Force fighter instructor pilot who transitioned to Special Operations for the latter part of his career gathering his campaign ribbon for Desert Storm. Immediately following his military service, John became a firefighter/EMT with a local department. Along with becoming a firefighter, he fell into the Information Technology industry in corporate management. Currently, John is writing full-time.
As a former marathon runner, John lives in the beautiful Pacific Northwest and can now be found kayaking out in the waters of Puget Sound, mountain biking in the Capital Forest, hiking in the Olympic Peninsula, or pedaling his road bike along the many scenic roads.
As a former marathon runner, John lives in the beautiful Pacific Northwest and can now be found kayaking out in the waters of Puget Sound, mountain biking in the Capital Forest, hiking in the Olympic Peninsula, or pedaling his road bike along the many scenic roads.
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Displaying 1 - 13 of 13 reviews
February 8, 2023
This series started off in book 1 with an admittedly unusual style. The book would alternate between something like news report clippings and narrative. But it did its job in laying a foundation that later books could leverage for an even better reading experience.
The action really heats up in this third volume of the series. Depictions of air and naval combat make this a highly entertaining read.
The action really heats up in this third volume of the series. Depictions of air and naval combat make this a highly entertaining read.
Read
June 23, 2026One of the many things that I enjoy about being part of the Military Thriller Book Group is that I have found many great "new" (or at least new to me) authors or, at the very least, books that I haven't had the opportunity to read yet.
As I am sure is the case with most of the readers that are part of this group, you see great books that interest you, and you put said book on the TBR pile (and then you see another one, and then another one, etc., etc.)
I came across an author, John O'Brien, who had introduced the world to the Tipping Point series in 2021. Tipping Point is a political-military thriller that centers around escalating tensions between China and the United States, focusing specifically on China's militarization of the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and the engineered release of SARSCov-19 as a biological weapon to affect the American economy. It is June 2026, and I am finally getting around to this author (after reading the first book in this series, all I can say is Mea Culpa).
That said, on one of my tablets (as I have no doubt stated before that I have gathered such a large TBR pile, that if it were a physical manifestation, it would be leaning dangerously one way or the other....lol). I think that I have the entire Tipping Point series (with the exception of the second book).
_______________________________________
One of the many things that I enjoy about reading political-military thrillers is looking into some of the background information that authors have used to develop their stories and see how close to reality that their novels have come (in other words, these novels form a big "What If" scenario), and sometimes these stories seem to be closer to truth than they are to fiction.
Territorial disputes have existed in the South China Sea between China and several surrounding nations (and recently with the United States, as the US officially addressed the South China Sea dispute in 1995).
The Mid-Century Cartography: The Nine-Dash Line
Following World War II, the Republic of China (ROC) moved to reclaim regional features from Japanese occupation.
• The 11-Dash Line (1947): The Nationalist Kuomintang government published a map featuring an "eleven-dash line" that enclosed roughly 80% of the South China Sea.
• The 9-Dash Line (1953): After the birth of the People's Republic of China (PRC) under Mao Zedong, the new communist government adopted the map. They removed two dashes inside the Gulf of Tonkin as a diplomatic gesture toward North Vietnam, creating the famous "nine-dash line".
The Cold War & Military Confrontations
During the late 20th century, China began transitioning from cartographic claims to active, armed displacement of rival claimant nations.
• The Paracel Islands Skirmish (1974): China launched its first major naval expedition into the area, defeating a South Vietnamese garrison to take complete control of the Paracel Islands.
• The Spratly Islands Skirmish (1988): Chinese and unified Vietnamese forces engaged in a deadly clash at Johnson South Reef. China used military force to gain its first physical foothold in the Spratly Islands.
• Mischief Reef Creep (1995): China expanded its footprint eastward by building rudimentary structures on Mischief Reef, which was actively claimed by the Philippines. Beijing initially claimed these were simple "fisherman shelters," but they marked a major geopolitical advance.
The Modern Era: The "Great Wall of Sand"
The most dramatic phase of expansion began in late 2013, shifting the strategy from merely occupying rocks to physically rewriting the geography of the sea.
• Land Reclamation (2013–2016): Through a massive dredging campaign dubbed the "Great Wall of Sand," China pumped sediment onto submerged reefs to build thousands of acres of artificial land across features like Fiery Cross, Subi, and Mischief Reefs.
• Militarization: Despite early diplomatic pledges that the land builds would serve purely civilian purposes, China built full-scale military runways, radar networks, missile systems, and deep-water ports on these artificial islands.
• The "Grey Zone" Fleet: Over the last decade, China has increasingly deployed its Maritime Militia—thousands of weaponized, state-funded commercial fishing vessels—alongside the China Coast Guard. This fleet floods disputed areas to physically crowd out and harass fishermen from neighboring nations like the Philippines and Vietnam.
International Backlash and the Hague Ruling (2016)
In 2013, the Philippines challenged China's expansion under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a landmark ruling:
• The court declared that China's "nine-dash line" and historical claims had no legal basis under international law.
• It ruled that artificial islands do not grant maritime territorial rights or Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).
Beijing boycotted the hearings, dismissed the final verdict as a "self-scripted show," and has completely ignored the ruling, maintaining its active security and infrastructure expansion in the region to this day.
I find it interesting how many of the above points have shown up as part of the storyline in John O'Brien's novels (and similar authors such as Don Brown, David Poyer, Ian Slater, Mike Gilmore, P.R. Franklin). If you, as a reader, were interested in similar storylines then I would recommend some of these authors. Another thing that I enjoy when I write a review for a book, is that I discover "new" authors to read in the future.
_______________________________________
Summary
TIPPING POINT: OPLAN 5015 by John O’Brien is a military techno-thriller novel focused on a speculative near-future conflict involving the United States, China, Taiwan, and North Korea. The story intricately examines the political, military, and strategic dynamics surrounding China’s planned invasion of Taiwan and the resulting multi-theater war, including a preemptive U.S. strike against North Korea.
The narrative is grounded heavily in modern and near-future military technology, geopolitics, and warfare doctrines, portraying a sprawling conflict involving intense naval, air, and undersea combat. The author draws on extensive knowledge of contemporary military assets, including advanced submarines, stealth aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles, and command and control systems, to craft a realistic military scenario.
Key Themes & Insights
Geopolitical Background:
China’s aggressive push for economic and territorial dominance escalates tensions with the U.S. and neighboring countries.
The Spratly Islands dispute, trade wars, and failed currency dominance shape strategic postures.
China’s creation of a virus to cripple global economies highlights high-stakes geopolitical gambits.
The conflict precipitates with China preparing an amphibious assault on Taiwan, leveraging civilian shipping vessels converted for military use due to a lack of sufficient military transports.
Military Assets & Conflict Preparation:
U.S. naval strike groups, including nuclear and guided missile submarines, alongside advanced jets (F-22, F-35, F-16) are deployed to counter China’s growing forces.
Taiwan’s military, though limited and technologically outdated compared to China's, uses guerrilla tactics and heavily depends on American assistance.
Electronic warfare, advanced radar jammers, and hypersonic glide vehicles emerge as key warfare technologies shaping engagements.
China’s submarine fleet faces devastating losses to U.S.-led anti-submarine warfare, severely limiting its undersea capabilities.
Conflict Progression (Chronology & Military Engagements):
Cast of Characters:
Detailed extensive list including U.S. military and political leadership, Chinese officials and military leaders, Taiwanese and Philippine personnel, North Korean forces, and CIA/NSA operatives. The narrative involves multi-national perspectives and command structures.
Technological and Tactical Elements:
Chinese Navy: Uses civilian RoRo (roll-on/roll-off) ships converted to military transports to
supplement limited amphibious landing craft.
Hypersonic Missiles: Chinese DF-17 medium-range ballistic missiles with DF-ZF maneuverable reentry glide vehicles pose a new challenge to U.S. naval task forces.
Air-to-Air Battles: Frequent engagements involve stealth jets (F-22, F-35 vs J-20), heavy use of advanced missile technology, and electronic warfare countermeasures.
Undersea War: U.S. submarines establish dominance, sinking significant portions of China’s submarine fleet.
Command and Control Warfare: The importance of E-2, E-3 surveillance and battle management aircraft is highlighted, with their destruction turning air battles from structured to chaotic.
Strategic Considerations & Political Context:
U.S. Secretary of Defense Aaron MacCulloch and President Frank Winslow weigh the complexities of extended military operations within legal and political limits (e.g., War Powers Resolution).
Discussions include the use of Taiwan’s Air Force in high-risk offensive strikes to reduce Chinese missile threats, Taiwan’s limited but vital naval and air assets, and U.S. efforts to maintain situational awareness via satellite constellations resistant to attacks.
China and North Korea’s political calculations delay North Korean invasion, potentially awaiting Chinese moves; tensions in Hong Kong and India add regional complexity.
UN diplomacy plays a significant but limited role, with no sanctions passed against China despite American Ambassador Elizabeth Hague’s efforts.
Core Concepts
Modern and Future Warfare: Multi-domain military operations including cyber, electronic warfare, undersea, and space assets.
Amphibious Assault and Logistic Challenges: China’s shortage of military transports is circumvented by the modification of civilian shipping vessels for mass troop and equipment deployment.
Hypersonic Threats: Hypersonic glide vehicles present new strategic challenges, difficult to intercept with current defense systems.
Command and Control Vulnerabilities: Loss or degradation of airborne battle management assets significantly impacts coordination.
Political and Strategic Constraints: Military operations are constrained by international law, politics, and the threat of nuclear escalation.
Proxy and Alliance Warfare: Taiwan acts as a proxy for U.S. regional interests; North Korea’s role interlinks with broader conflict dynamics.
_______________________________________
As I had mentioned earlier in this review, I like to do a quick bit of research to find out a little bit about where the author got their inspiration that either led to the writing of the book or inspired the title.
After a quick Google search (and looking at the percentages of the book were devoted to that particular "theatre" of operation - with almost 79% of the book dealing with the conflict with China and the remainder dealing with the conflict with North Korea), I discover that OPLAN 5015 is actually a bit of a misnomer (as according to the information listed below, the plan deals specifically with North Korea).
_______________________________________
OPLAN 5015 is a highly classified, joint military operation plan developed by the United States and South Korea to address contingencies and potential conflict involving North Korea. Signed into effect in June 2015 by the alliance's top commanders, it fundamentally shifted allied strategy away from a purely defensive posture toward a more proactive, rapid-response doctrine.
Core Shift in Strategy
OPLAN 5015 replaced the older, Cold War-era framework known as OPLAN 5027.
OPLAN 5027 (The Old Plan): Relied on a phased conventional strategy based on absorbing an initial North Korean invasion, retreating to defensible lines, realigning, and launching a massive conventional counterattack north of the DMZ.
OPLAN 5015 (The Modern Plan) focuses on asymmetric, limited, and twenty-first-century warfare concepts. It prioritizes executing rapid, preemptive strikes using precision weapons and special operations forces within the critical first 72 to 96 hours of an imminent conflict.
Key Strategic Pillars
Though the exact details remain strictly classified, leaks and public military exercises have confirmed several major components of the operational framework:
Leadership Decapitation Operations: The plan contains explicit protocols for specialized raids—frequently dubbed "decapitation strikes"—by elite Special Operations Forces (SOF) to neutralize the supreme leadership of North Korea and disable its central command-and-control capabilities.
Preemptive Counter-WMD Strikes: It calls for surgical, preventative strikes against North Korea’s strategic infrastructure, particularly targeting its nuclear sites, missile batteries, long-range artillery, and mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs).
Consolidated Contingencies: The plan bridges peacetime defense and all-out wartime responses into a single framework. It integrates previous standalone plans, including OPLAN 5029 (handling internal North Korean instability or collapse) and protocols targeting cyber and biochemical warfare.
Regional Strategic Depth: Allied war plans utilize United States Forces Japan (USFJ) as a critical launch pad. In a fast-moving crisis, Japan-based U.S. SOF are designated to deploy immediately to suppress threats before full-scale continental reinforcements arrive.
Evolutionary Upgrades
The security landscape surrounding the Korean Peninsula has driven ongoing changes to the alliance's joint operational planning:
Ongoing Modernization: Following a bilateral agreement in December 2021, Washington and Seoul officially initiated a comprehensive rewrite of their joint war plans. This ongoing modernization is designed to account for North Korea’s advanced nuclear delivery mechanisms, hyper-diversified missile technology, and changing geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia.4
The plan remains the primary strategic baseline during major annual combined defense training maneuvers, such as Freedom Shield, ensuring that allied command structures maintain operational readiness against regional crises.
_______________________________________
Conclusion:
TIPPING POINT: OPLAN 5015 is a detailed and immersive depiction of a plausible near-future conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. It explores the interplay of advanced military technologies, the complexities of joint and combined operations, and the brutal realities of modern warfare. The novel underlines the importance of air, naval, and undersea supremacy, the vulnerabilities inherent in command and control networks, and the brutal calculus faced by nations caught in a high-stakes global struggle. Through its multi-faceted perspectives, it highlights the geopolitical risks and military challenges inherent in the Taiwan Strait crisis and broader East Asian theater.
As for my vaunted five-star rating scheme, I would definitely rate John O'Brien's third novel in the series a solid four stars because of how it reads like it was ripped from the headlines of the near-future. I believe that fans of authors who focus on macro-level military strategy, fast-attack submarine warfare, drone swarms, and authentic military realism would enjoy this book. Fans of some other authors who write this type of book (including James Rosone, Dale Brown, P.W. Singer, and August Cole) would likely find a new favourite read in John O'Brien.
As with all my literary ramblings, this is just my five cents' worth.
As I am sure is the case with most of the readers that are part of this group, you see great books that interest you, and you put said book on the TBR pile (and then you see another one, and then another one, etc., etc.)
I came across an author, John O'Brien, who had introduced the world to the Tipping Point series in 2021. Tipping Point is a political-military thriller that centers around escalating tensions between China and the United States, focusing specifically on China's militarization of the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and the engineered release of SARSCov-19 as a biological weapon to affect the American economy. It is June 2026, and I am finally getting around to this author (after reading the first book in this series, all I can say is Mea Culpa).
That said, on one of my tablets (as I have no doubt stated before that I have gathered such a large TBR pile, that if it were a physical manifestation, it would be leaning dangerously one way or the other....lol). I think that I have the entire Tipping Point series (with the exception of the second book).
_______________________________________
One of the many things that I enjoy about reading political-military thrillers is looking into some of the background information that authors have used to develop their stories and see how close to reality that their novels have come (in other words, these novels form a big "What If" scenario), and sometimes these stories seem to be closer to truth than they are to fiction.
Territorial disputes have existed in the South China Sea between China and several surrounding nations (and recently with the United States, as the US officially addressed the South China Sea dispute in 1995).
The Mid-Century Cartography: The Nine-Dash Line
Following World War II, the Republic of China (ROC) moved to reclaim regional features from Japanese occupation.
• The 11-Dash Line (1947): The Nationalist Kuomintang government published a map featuring an "eleven-dash line" that enclosed roughly 80% of the South China Sea.
• The 9-Dash Line (1953): After the birth of the People's Republic of China (PRC) under Mao Zedong, the new communist government adopted the map. They removed two dashes inside the Gulf of Tonkin as a diplomatic gesture toward North Vietnam, creating the famous "nine-dash line".
The Cold War & Military Confrontations
During the late 20th century, China began transitioning from cartographic claims to active, armed displacement of rival claimant nations.
• The Paracel Islands Skirmish (1974): China launched its first major naval expedition into the area, defeating a South Vietnamese garrison to take complete control of the Paracel Islands.
• The Spratly Islands Skirmish (1988): Chinese and unified Vietnamese forces engaged in a deadly clash at Johnson South Reef. China used military force to gain its first physical foothold in the Spratly Islands.
• Mischief Reef Creep (1995): China expanded its footprint eastward by building rudimentary structures on Mischief Reef, which was actively claimed by the Philippines. Beijing initially claimed these were simple "fisherman shelters," but they marked a major geopolitical advance.
The Modern Era: The "Great Wall of Sand"
The most dramatic phase of expansion began in late 2013, shifting the strategy from merely occupying rocks to physically rewriting the geography of the sea.
• Land Reclamation (2013–2016): Through a massive dredging campaign dubbed the "Great Wall of Sand," China pumped sediment onto submerged reefs to build thousands of acres of artificial land across features like Fiery Cross, Subi, and Mischief Reefs.
• Militarization: Despite early diplomatic pledges that the land builds would serve purely civilian purposes, China built full-scale military runways, radar networks, missile systems, and deep-water ports on these artificial islands.
• The "Grey Zone" Fleet: Over the last decade, China has increasingly deployed its Maritime Militia—thousands of weaponized, state-funded commercial fishing vessels—alongside the China Coast Guard. This fleet floods disputed areas to physically crowd out and harass fishermen from neighboring nations like the Philippines and Vietnam.
International Backlash and the Hague Ruling (2016)
In 2013, the Philippines challenged China's expansion under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a landmark ruling:
• The court declared that China's "nine-dash line" and historical claims had no legal basis under international law.
• It ruled that artificial islands do not grant maritime territorial rights or Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).
Beijing boycotted the hearings, dismissed the final verdict as a "self-scripted show," and has completely ignored the ruling, maintaining its active security and infrastructure expansion in the region to this day.
I find it interesting how many of the above points have shown up as part of the storyline in John O'Brien's novels (and similar authors such as Don Brown, David Poyer, Ian Slater, Mike Gilmore, P.R. Franklin). If you, as a reader, were interested in similar storylines then I would recommend some of these authors. Another thing that I enjoy when I write a review for a book, is that I discover "new" authors to read in the future.
_______________________________________
Summary
TIPPING POINT: OPLAN 5015 by John O’Brien is a military techno-thriller novel focused on a speculative near-future conflict involving the United States, China, Taiwan, and North Korea. The story intricately examines the political, military, and strategic dynamics surrounding China’s planned invasion of Taiwan and the resulting multi-theater war, including a preemptive U.S. strike against North Korea.
The narrative is grounded heavily in modern and near-future military technology, geopolitics, and warfare doctrines, portraying a sprawling conflict involving intense naval, air, and undersea combat. The author draws on extensive knowledge of contemporary military assets, including advanced submarines, stealth aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles, and command and control systems, to craft a realistic military scenario.
Key Themes & Insights
Geopolitical Background:
China’s aggressive push for economic and territorial dominance escalates tensions with the U.S. and neighboring countries.
The Spratly Islands dispute, trade wars, and failed currency dominance shape strategic postures.
China’s creation of a virus to cripple global economies highlights high-stakes geopolitical gambits.
The conflict precipitates with China preparing an amphibious assault on Taiwan, leveraging civilian shipping vessels converted for military use due to a lack of sufficient military transports.
Military Assets & Conflict Preparation:
U.S. naval strike groups, including nuclear and guided missile submarines, alongside advanced jets (F-22, F-35, F-16) are deployed to counter China’s growing forces.
Taiwan’s military, though limited and technologically outdated compared to China's, uses guerrilla tactics and heavily depends on American assistance.
Electronic warfare, advanced radar jammers, and hypersonic glide vehicles emerge as key warfare technologies shaping engagements.
China’s submarine fleet faces devastating losses to U.S.-led anti-submarine warfare, severely limiting its undersea capabilities.
Conflict Progression (Chronology & Military Engagements):
Cast of Characters:
Detailed extensive list including U.S. military and political leadership, Chinese officials and military leaders, Taiwanese and Philippine personnel, North Korean forces, and CIA/NSA operatives. The narrative involves multi-national perspectives and command structures.
Technological and Tactical Elements:
Chinese Navy: Uses civilian RoRo (roll-on/roll-off) ships converted to military transports to
supplement limited amphibious landing craft.
Hypersonic Missiles: Chinese DF-17 medium-range ballistic missiles with DF-ZF maneuverable reentry glide vehicles pose a new challenge to U.S. naval task forces.
Air-to-Air Battles: Frequent engagements involve stealth jets (F-22, F-35 vs J-20), heavy use of advanced missile technology, and electronic warfare countermeasures.
Undersea War: U.S. submarines establish dominance, sinking significant portions of China’s submarine fleet.
Command and Control Warfare: The importance of E-2, E-3 surveillance and battle management aircraft is highlighted, with their destruction turning air battles from structured to chaotic.
Strategic Considerations & Political Context:
U.S. Secretary of Defense Aaron MacCulloch and President Frank Winslow weigh the complexities of extended military operations within legal and political limits (e.g., War Powers Resolution).
Discussions include the use of Taiwan’s Air Force in high-risk offensive strikes to reduce Chinese missile threats, Taiwan’s limited but vital naval and air assets, and U.S. efforts to maintain situational awareness via satellite constellations resistant to attacks.
China and North Korea’s political calculations delay North Korean invasion, potentially awaiting Chinese moves; tensions in Hong Kong and India add regional complexity.
UN diplomacy plays a significant but limited role, with no sanctions passed against China despite American Ambassador Elizabeth Hague’s efforts.
Core Concepts
Modern and Future Warfare: Multi-domain military operations including cyber, electronic warfare, undersea, and space assets.
Amphibious Assault and Logistic Challenges: China’s shortage of military transports is circumvented by the modification of civilian shipping vessels for mass troop and equipment deployment.
Hypersonic Threats: Hypersonic glide vehicles present new strategic challenges, difficult to intercept with current defense systems.
Command and Control Vulnerabilities: Loss or degradation of airborne battle management assets significantly impacts coordination.
Political and Strategic Constraints: Military operations are constrained by international law, politics, and the threat of nuclear escalation.
Proxy and Alliance Warfare: Taiwan acts as a proxy for U.S. regional interests; North Korea’s role interlinks with broader conflict dynamics.
_______________________________________
As I had mentioned earlier in this review, I like to do a quick bit of research to find out a little bit about where the author got their inspiration that either led to the writing of the book or inspired the title.
After a quick Google search (and looking at the percentages of the book were devoted to that particular "theatre" of operation - with almost 79% of the book dealing with the conflict with China and the remainder dealing with the conflict with North Korea), I discover that OPLAN 5015 is actually a bit of a misnomer (as according to the information listed below, the plan deals specifically with North Korea).
_______________________________________
OPLAN 5015 is a highly classified, joint military operation plan developed by the United States and South Korea to address contingencies and potential conflict involving North Korea. Signed into effect in June 2015 by the alliance's top commanders, it fundamentally shifted allied strategy away from a purely defensive posture toward a more proactive, rapid-response doctrine.
Core Shift in Strategy
OPLAN 5015 replaced the older, Cold War-era framework known as OPLAN 5027.
OPLAN 5027 (The Old Plan): Relied on a phased conventional strategy based on absorbing an initial North Korean invasion, retreating to defensible lines, realigning, and launching a massive conventional counterattack north of the DMZ.
OPLAN 5015 (The Modern Plan) focuses on asymmetric, limited, and twenty-first-century warfare concepts. It prioritizes executing rapid, preemptive strikes using precision weapons and special operations forces within the critical first 72 to 96 hours of an imminent conflict.
Key Strategic Pillars
Though the exact details remain strictly classified, leaks and public military exercises have confirmed several major components of the operational framework:
Leadership Decapitation Operations: The plan contains explicit protocols for specialized raids—frequently dubbed "decapitation strikes"—by elite Special Operations Forces (SOF) to neutralize the supreme leadership of North Korea and disable its central command-and-control capabilities.
Preemptive Counter-WMD Strikes: It calls for surgical, preventative strikes against North Korea’s strategic infrastructure, particularly targeting its nuclear sites, missile batteries, long-range artillery, and mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs).
Consolidated Contingencies: The plan bridges peacetime defense and all-out wartime responses into a single framework. It integrates previous standalone plans, including OPLAN 5029 (handling internal North Korean instability or collapse) and protocols targeting cyber and biochemical warfare.
Regional Strategic Depth: Allied war plans utilize United States Forces Japan (USFJ) as a critical launch pad. In a fast-moving crisis, Japan-based U.S. SOF are designated to deploy immediately to suppress threats before full-scale continental reinforcements arrive.
Evolutionary Upgrades
The security landscape surrounding the Korean Peninsula has driven ongoing changes to the alliance's joint operational planning:
Ongoing Modernization: Following a bilateral agreement in December 2021, Washington and Seoul officially initiated a comprehensive rewrite of their joint war plans. This ongoing modernization is designed to account for North Korea’s advanced nuclear delivery mechanisms, hyper-diversified missile technology, and changing geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia.4
The plan remains the primary strategic baseline during major annual combined defense training maneuvers, such as Freedom Shield, ensuring that allied command structures maintain operational readiness against regional crises.
_______________________________________
Conclusion:
TIPPING POINT: OPLAN 5015 is a detailed and immersive depiction of a plausible near-future conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. It explores the interplay of advanced military technologies, the complexities of joint and combined operations, and the brutal realities of modern warfare. The novel underlines the importance of air, naval, and undersea supremacy, the vulnerabilities inherent in command and control networks, and the brutal calculus faced by nations caught in a high-stakes global struggle. Through its multi-faceted perspectives, it highlights the geopolitical risks and military challenges inherent in the Taiwan Strait crisis and broader East Asian theater.
As for my vaunted five-star rating scheme, I would definitely rate John O'Brien's third novel in the series a solid four stars because of how it reads like it was ripped from the headlines of the near-future. I believe that fans of authors who focus on macro-level military strategy, fast-attack submarine warfare, drone swarms, and authentic military realism would enjoy this book. Fans of some other authors who write this type of book (including James Rosone, Dale Brown, P.W. Singer, and August Cole) would likely find a new favourite read in John O'Brien.
As with all my literary ramblings, this is just my five cents' worth.
December 10, 2022
4/5. Lots of combat action in this third part of this book series. As China gets ready to invade Taiwan, the island nation realizes its inferior air force and navy will have minimal effect once China initiates hostilities and achieves air superiority. In order to get some results, Taiwan launches attacks against the aggressors. The invasion forces, their transport ships, and their air defenses suffer significant losses, but these cost Taiwan almost its entire air force and navy. In addition, China loses the vast majority of its submarines and expends most of its missile inventory. The United States launches preemptive air strikes against North Korea’s massed invasion forces. The North loses most of its antiquated air force and takes hits to its artillery and air defense units. On to book four’s invasions!
May 8, 2022
China and Taiwan are at war and North Korea is once again flexing it's muscles against South Korea. Meanwhile the United States is aiding Taiwan, trying to keep the China Seas out of China's grasp and they have preempted a strike against North Korea. This is an action packed story with edge of your seat aerial, naval and submarine battles throughout this tale. Here's hoping none of this occurs in real time in the future. A must read for any fan of the military/warfare genres.
July 21, 2022
Over The Top
The headline says it all. This is one of the best novels of it's type that I've read. You feel like you're in the middle of the action, in the air or on or under the water. The author does a great job of providing both sides viewpoint using different characters as the situation evolves. Can't wait for follow-up.
The headline says it all. This is one of the best novels of it's type that I've read. You feel like you're in the middle of the action, in the air or on or under the water. The author does a great job of providing both sides viewpoint using different characters as the situation evolves. Can't wait for follow-up.
November 2, 2023
Good read for the technos amongst us.
This a good story told for the people who like to read the ‘ins and outs’ of a future war from a technical standpoint.
The characters are just byplays in this story but it does show one human thing - pride can make even the most powerful people and nations do things that are morally abhorrent.
Sad story all to likely.
This a good story told for the people who like to read the ‘ins and outs’ of a future war from a technical standpoint.
The characters are just byplays in this story but it does show one human thing - pride can make even the most powerful people and nations do things that are morally abhorrent.
Sad story all to likely.
December 4, 2025
CHINA CONTINUES TO MAKE BAD DECISIONS
I'm glad the author stopped using press releases to advance the plot. But China leadership continues to make bad decisions, hiding or ignoring its huge loses. Taiwan seems to be under equip for the fight with China. How come the Americans did not replace Taiwan's fighter losses? The plot is advancing slowlyt.
I'm glad the author stopped using press releases to advance the plot. But China leadership continues to make bad decisions, hiding or ignoring its huge loses. Taiwan seems to be under equip for the fight with China. How come the Americans did not replace Taiwan's fighter losses? The plot is advancing slowlyt.
March 29, 2024
A definite page turner!
A story line that is believable and interesting. In these current days, it makes one think about what could happen and how much of the world could be impacted. A good yarn to contemplate.
A story line that is believable and interesting. In these current days, it makes one think about what could happen and how much of the world could be impacted. A good yarn to contemplate.
May 22, 2022
Captivating
Attention to detail is very good. The plot flows smoothly. The story line is believable and holds the readers attention . Good job John !
Attention to detail is very good. The plot flows smoothly. The story line is believable and holds the readers attention . Good job John !
June 14, 2023
Good series! Hard to imagine it’s fiction though.
May 10, 2024
Some very very detailed battle scenes but I’ll be honest, they get boring after a while because the story stops moving at anywhere near the same pace. Comfortably worse than the first two
June 26, 2025
Detailed
Way to detailed to.point of boring. Ended up turning pages ahead to get to results quicker. Premise good but way to.long to get there
Way to detailed to.point of boring. Ended up turning pages ahead to get to results quicker. Premise good but way to.long to get there
December 26, 2025
Lots of action, and really brings across how with all the new technology, action happens really really fast.
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