Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life

by Torleif Halkjelsvik

Preface.- 1. Introduction : 1.1 A prediction success.- 1.2 Prediction disasters.- 2. How we Predict Time Usage : 2.1 Mental time travel.- 2.2 How did you make that prediction?.- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere.- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time?.- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future : 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right?.- 3.2 Communication of time predictions.- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions.- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions.- 3.5 Relearning to 2 + 2 is usually more than 4.- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage.- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance.- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions : 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions.- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism.- 4.3 The desire to control time.- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions.- 4.5 Selection bias.- 4.6 Deception.- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions?.- 5. Time Prediction 5.1 The team scaling fallacy.- 5.2 Anchoring.- 5.3 Sequence effects.- 5.4 Format effects.- 5.5 The magnitude effect.- 5.6 Length of task description.- 5.7 The time unit effect.- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions : 6.1 Why are we overconfident?.- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence?.- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats.- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback.- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles : 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition.- 7.2 Analogies.- 7.3 Relative predictions.- 7.4 Time prediction models.- 7.5 Consider alternative futures.- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions.- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction?.- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information.- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt Time predictions using alternative scales.- 8. Time Matching the Method to the Situation.- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others .

Genres: Nonfiction

124 pages, Paperback

Published March 6, 2018

Reviews

[Evan · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very clear, concise, and insightful. The summaries are very helpful.

[Emma Que · Rating 5 out of 5]

A+

A very technical and thoroughly researched approach to explaining why it is so hard for humans to effectively estimate time use. It's a shame they can't help us be more successful at it.

[Hendrick Mcdonald · Rating 5 out of 5]

Exactly What It Promised To Be

The book is a play by play of different ways to gather time predictions, exploring the ways that lead to optimistic estimates vs pessimistic estimates.

[Krista Campisi · Rating 5 out of 5]

Lit

Cool stuff really I enjoyed so muggy
Really loved I I I I I I I I I I I