Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide

by David Vose

Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for rational decisions to be made. This book concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modelling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Following on from the success of the previous edition of this clearly written and highly regarded book, this edition is extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for beginners and experienced practitioners alike. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modelling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems. Reviews of the first edition "It identifies the various facets of risk analysis and provides a valuable reference to the concepts and techniques employed." Project, 1997 "It clearly explains many essential aspects of quantitative risk analysis . provides valuable techniques and sound professional advice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 12, 1999 "The book offers a powerful method for dealing with risk and uncertainty." Zentralblatt für Mathematik, Band 908, 1999

Genres: Business, Nonfiction

430 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2000

Reviews

[RAD · Rating 5 out of 5]

Good book, and even better reference. I've been a heavy user of Vose Software's ModelRisk for a few years, and bought this book to help me with that. But to David Vose's credit, the book is not just a long advertisement for his firm's software product; he spends a good deal of time talking about competitors' products as well. Risk Analysis covers the entire spectrum of risk: from simple examples to complex math formulae. There is also an excellent bibliography, and Vose goes the extra step by categorizing each into three buckets, along with a few notes ("A statistics book with jokes!", 717). If your job involves modeling uncertainty, this book is an excellent reference.

[Tim Clouse · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent reference. In the re-read category becuase I use it all the time. The previous two editions are shorter and not as useful.