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The Long and the Short of It - Finance and Investment for Normally Intelligent People Who Are Not in
Discusses the complexities of modern finance, both the basics of investment and the sophisticated innovations of the modern financial system. This book explains how the fresh economy bubble and the credit crunch - the follies of finance have threatened the stability of the world economy.
241 pages, Paperback
First published October 10, 1996
189 people are currently reading
1616 people want to read
About the author
John Kay
67 books181 followersI was born in Edinburgh, Scotland in 1948, and completed my schooling and undergraduate education in that city: I am fortunate to have lived most of my life in beautiful places. I went to the University of Edinburgh to study mathematics. But, after taking a subsidiary course in economics, I decided that I wanted to be an economist. The notion that one might understand society better through the application of rigorous and logical analysis excited me – and it still does. After graduating from Edinburgh, I went to Nuffield College, Oxford. I worked there under James Mirrlees, who was in due course to win the Nobel Prize for his contributions to economic theory.
On Mirrlees’s advice, I applied for and to my astonishment got a permanent teaching post in the University of Oxford at the embarrassingly early age of 21. Oxford is a collegiate university – members of the faculty generally have both University and College appointments. This post carried with it a fellowship at St John’s College, an association which I have maintained and enjoyed ever since. Through the 1970s I developed a conventional academic career, publishing in academic journals, and writing my first book Concentration in Modern Industry (with Leslie Hannah, an economic historian colleague). My particular interests were in public finance and industrial organisation.
But my rationale for studying economics had, from the beginning, been concerned for application. My career began to change direction when I was asked to join a group to review the structure of the British tax system. This group was established under the auspices of a newly established think tank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and was headed by James Meade, another economist who had achieved the ultimate distinction of a Nobel prize. Meade’s rigour was as demanding as that of Mirrlees, (both delivered it with extraordinary personal charm). But the most important effect of my experience with the Meade Committee was that I began to develop a taste for the popular exposition of economic concepts.
In this vein, I wrote (with Mervyn King, now Governor of the Bank of England) a more personal account of issues in taxation, The British Tax System which ran through five editions.
Pursuing these interests, I moved from Oxford and joined the Institute for Fiscal Studies as its first research director. Soon after I became Director of the Institute. IFS developed into (and remains) one of Britain’s leading think tanks, respected and feared by policymakers and journalists for its fiercely independent analysis of fiscal issues.
After seven years, I decided it was time to move on. The success of IFS had been built on serious economics accompanied by a commitment to popularisation and application. If this could be done for public policy issues, could the same be done in the area of business policy? This was the thinking that led me to accept a chair at the London Business School in 1986 and, at the same time, to establish a consulting company, London Economics.
Over the next few years, the application of economics to business issues became my intellectual focus. During this period, London Economics grew rapidly, largely on the back of the wave of privatisation and regulatory change in Britain in the 1980s. By 1991, managing the company had become a major responsibility. I revised my arrangements with London Business School. My new contract was as Visiting Professor but my job as executive chairman of London Economics took the larger part of my time. London Economics grew until, by its tenth anniversary, its annual turnover exceeded £10m with offices in three continents and assignments in over sixty countries.
London Economics gave me insights into the business world. These came both through consultancy work with major corporations and first hand observation of the growth and development of a small business. Other activities have enriched my more scholarly work by broadening the experi
On Mirrlees’s advice, I applied for and to my astonishment got a permanent teaching post in the University of Oxford at the embarrassingly early age of 21. Oxford is a collegiate university – members of the faculty generally have both University and College appointments. This post carried with it a fellowship at St John’s College, an association which I have maintained and enjoyed ever since. Through the 1970s I developed a conventional academic career, publishing in academic journals, and writing my first book Concentration in Modern Industry (with Leslie Hannah, an economic historian colleague). My particular interests were in public finance and industrial organisation.
But my rationale for studying economics had, from the beginning, been concerned for application. My career began to change direction when I was asked to join a group to review the structure of the British tax system. This group was established under the auspices of a newly established think tank, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and was headed by James Meade, another economist who had achieved the ultimate distinction of a Nobel prize. Meade’s rigour was as demanding as that of Mirrlees, (both delivered it with extraordinary personal charm). But the most important effect of my experience with the Meade Committee was that I began to develop a taste for the popular exposition of economic concepts.
In this vein, I wrote (with Mervyn King, now Governor of the Bank of England) a more personal account of issues in taxation, The British Tax System which ran through five editions.
Pursuing these interests, I moved from Oxford and joined the Institute for Fiscal Studies as its first research director. Soon after I became Director of the Institute. IFS developed into (and remains) one of Britain’s leading think tanks, respected and feared by policymakers and journalists for its fiercely independent analysis of fiscal issues.
After seven years, I decided it was time to move on. The success of IFS had been built on serious economics accompanied by a commitment to popularisation and application. If this could be done for public policy issues, could the same be done in the area of business policy? This was the thinking that led me to accept a chair at the London Business School in 1986 and, at the same time, to establish a consulting company, London Economics.
Over the next few years, the application of economics to business issues became my intellectual focus. During this period, London Economics grew rapidly, largely on the back of the wave of privatisation and regulatory change in Britain in the 1980s. By 1991, managing the company had become a major responsibility. I revised my arrangements with London Business School. My new contract was as Visiting Professor but my job as executive chairman of London Economics took the larger part of my time. London Economics grew until, by its tenth anniversary, its annual turnover exceeded £10m with offices in three continents and assignments in over sixty countries.
London Economics gave me insights into the business world. These came both through consultancy work with major corporations and first hand observation of the growth and development of a small business. Other activities have enriched my more scholarly work by broadening the experi
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 44 reviews
February 7, 2017
Man, this guy loves him some Robb Caledon talk. In all seriousness, Kay offers a practical guide to managing ones own financial portfolio without too much interference from financial services professionals. His first key piece of advice is to minimize fees and expenses - use an online broker, stay away from high fee funds, etc. Then, he emphasizes diversification in a way that fund managers are averse to practicing: each investment should significantly diversify the total portfolio, by sector, region, investment type, etc. Most fund managers "closet index", according to Kay, in an attempt to not be second-guessed and fired, but personal investors don't have to worry as much about herd behavior or beating an index. This should free individual investors to more substantially diversify their investments. The "mind your portfolio" approach incorporates leading market theories, such as the efficient market hypothesis and subjective expected utility, but does not hold them as true at all times. Being nimble is more important than holding to static investment theories. This is a welcome addition to the personal finance literature. And remember, if you think you've read the words "Robb Caledon" for the last time in this book, think again.
March 15, 2020
I first attempted this in 2017 in a relatively poor attempt to ramp up for an investment interview. Needless to say neither the reading nor the interview went too well. On a second read and successful completion it was far more enjoyable. A well rounded insight into the world of personal investment. First to pay off the student loan
May 18, 2024
A guide to investing with general financial concepts. Avoid fees, be contrarian, diversify.
February 15, 2017
Before this book, I tried to read different books about finance and investment, but I stopped to read them when I was in the middle of them. This book was an exception that encouraged me to read and finish it as soon as possible. Two chapters of the book were complicated, and I would read them again, but the last three chapters were brilliant, which I strongly recommend reading those chapters. Also, recommendations for related books at the end of this book are very useful.
The main outcome of this book for me is although the financial market is a sophisticated market you can achieve what you want by patience.
The main outcome of this book for me is although the financial market is a sophisticated market you can achieve what you want by patience.
January 12, 2021
Prior to reading this book I had almost no knowledge about finance and investment, including the workings of pensions. I found some of the chapters a little hard to fully grasp, but the latter chapters did a good job of recapping and concluding the main points to overcome this. The key messages from the book have really helped me with my own investments by drastically improving my understanding and confidence. In particular the need to take a long-term approaches to investments, to make my own judgements, and to diversify high risk. With this in mind I would say it has been one of the most important books that I have read in recent years, given the void of practical knowledge that it filled. I would recommend this to anybody in a similar position looking to start investments.
April 23, 2020
The book covers investing very well. I liked how the author, John Kay, builds a distinction between what he calls a conventional investor and an intelligent investor. He covers financial theory on valuing stocks in quite some detail and gives his assessment of what he considers useful. He also makes a good distinction between risk and uncertainty, although some of the argumentation was hard to follow. He offers some very good advice on diversification and looking at the risk of a portfolio rather than that of an individual stock.
In addition the book contains some very practical, useful advice.
If someone wants to learn some key concepts for thinking about investing this book is very good. The advice in it could save a lot of money for people who have or are planning to have investments.
In addition the book contains some very practical, useful advice.
If someone wants to learn some key concepts for thinking about investing this book is very good. The advice in it could save a lot of money for people who have or are planning to have investments.
December 10, 2019
A practical guide with sound advice. If you’re new to investing but are ready to dive into a more technical crash course, this covers the essentials. The Risk and Reward chapter was excellent.
January 2, 2024
John Kays, Knighted, economist and an FT journalist provides an excellent summarisation of how someone who is intelligent, successful but does not necessarily work in financial services can manage their portfolio. It is based on three simple concepts; pay less, diversify more and resist conventional thinking (the last one I agree the least with). He also starts with the simple premise that I have learnt the hard way that you cannot trust people who offer your financial advice. A lot of the stats in the book are from Lipper (now owned by LSEG).
Traditionally, financial advisers were not expert only salesmen. They were financial advisors in the same way that car dealers are transport consultants. These financial advisors knew little that their customer did not already know, except how much advisors were paid to make a sale. Take the same sceptical attitude towards a financial advisor as you would towards a shop sales assistant, be incredibly sceptical towards investment managers that use relative performance against their peers, and not absolute and be sceptical of the investment maxims that a number of investment advisors use such as “sell in May and go away, benefit from the small company effect as they are subject to less research, buy the dogs of the Dow”. They are just trying to sound more intellectual than they really are. Also remember that the seller of a financial product or company always has the advantage over the buyer, because they have more knowledge. Ensure that total charges do not exceed 1% PA.
John Kay’s summarisation of a stock broker is near spot on. “Stockbrokers derived from the days before players replaced gentlemen; grand but seedy (messy/fat), with good social skills and connections; streetwise but not clever, well off but not hard working. These people still exist, mostly outside of London, but are a dying breed”. Most stockbrokers have replaced with wealth management or private banking. They are expensive and mostly pointless. Furthermore, investing overseas rarely works with an active manager (so true – think Ballie Gifford Japan). Using a passive vehicle (FTSE Global in your case) works best.
Always avoid life assurance policies as their return is abysmal. Much better to invest in your own personal portfolio as an insurance policy. Target an average return of 8%, and ensure all dividend is re-invested. If your target return was made up of 3% dividend and 5% capital gain, over four years, your £100 would accumulate to £2172 with reinvested dividend and £704 without them.
I disagree with what John says about bubbles and that all intelligent investors can do is sit out. I would love to know whether Jeremy Grantham outperformed the market over a 10-year time horizon with a bubble bursting in the middle of that 10-year period. My feeling is that if you feel there is a bubble emerging sell if you can, but if like the dominance of US stocks, you view as a bubble, just add more cash to other holdings. The market is often wrong for longer than the lost return and fund manager can maintain their job. A normal PE ratio is between 10 and 20.
Choosing the correct DCF is vital. If a company is a high risk poorly performing tech company then a it is likely to be borrowing at the rate set by the Junk Bond market, not the Treasury market.
Do not confuse security with certainty. The man who knows he is going to be executed tomorrow has certainty but not security. The same applies to people who hold cash for too long. Yes, that have certainty, but security no because of the lost returns and inability in the future to fund their retirement. The risk that is relevant to you is the overall risk of the whole investment portfolio, not the risk associated with the individual securities it contains. The key is to think probabilistically in the context of your investment needs. A long-term time horizon means that if you think there is a 60-40 chance of US Stocks outperforming two years in a row, you can afford to take that risk because you have longer to recoup if the 40% chance of failure prevails. A combination of risks may be less risk in part than whole. Do you waste your time, if you can take lots risks, by holdings assets that preserve value. If you do not require any cash from your portfolio, just hold cash in an interest rate paying account. For the intelligent investor, risk is not short-term volatility. Risk is the failure to meet your objectives. The notion that cash and short dated bonds are less risk than volatile equities is confusing certainty with security. The same principle to an extent applies to wasting your time investing Personal Assets and Ruffer. John does not believe that fixed interest or cash assets have a role in an intelligent investor’s portfolio. Keep cash to hand if you think you have an emergency on the horizon. The construction of a diversified portfolio requires as much attention to correlation as to expected return. This point I do agree with and something I will look to address in 2024 is maybe putting an investment in some metal/insurance funds. A lot of any index portfolio is long Tech, US and Long Duration assets. Chapter 7 Risk and Rewards, and Chapter 8 World of Unknows are key chapters.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
May 22, 2024
This is a good nuts and bolts guide for the non-professional investor. Proper valuation is key, and there are generally two ways to value an asset: (1) what someone is willing to pay for it; and (2) the amount of cash it will generate over its lifetime. While understanding both is necessary for long term success, author John Kay emphasizes why the latter is where the “intelligent investor” can have an advantage over the professional. This is because the professional remains beholden to a short-time scale and the need to keep his bosses and client happy. Approach (1) involves understanding the mind of Mr. Market (as anthropomorphized by Benjamin Graham) in order to read and anticipate mercurial and emotional overreactions. Approach (2) is to ignore fluctuations and focus on fundamental value which assumes that in the long run, truth will prevail over momentum and reversion. The most successful investors take both (1) and (2) into account. George Soros is an example of giving (1) more credence; Warren Buffet is an example of giving (2) far more weight. Some additional good advices contained in this book:
Track where the world’s largest institutional investors (endowment funds, pension funds such as CalPERS) put their money so that you can potentially piggyback off the decisions of their well-compensated investment managers – though keep in mind how your time horizon differs.
Most bubbles have their origins in some real event - an economic, technological, or geopolitical event that changes the fundamental determinants (though not the fundamental principles or asset valuations), e.g., the internet, cryptocurrency, AI. Whenever there is such a change, there is a human tendency toward enthusiasm, to exaggerate the pace and significance of that change, and that tendency is increased if the enthusiasm starts off profitable and is fashionable. Those who criticize the bubbles are called fools, and often eventually join the party. Isaac Newton was an example of someone who saw that the South Sea Company bubble was a fraud, but ultimately invested: “I can predict the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of crowds”, Newton lamented as he counted his losses when the bubble burst.
The intelligent investor understands that investing in a basket of blue chip companies does not necessarily constitute “low risk” because their returns are so strongly correlated with each other. Beware the false perception of security.
Finally, notwithstanding the excitement of trying to prove Mr. Market wrong, keep in mind the strong possibility that a share price has fallen because someone else knows something you don’t. An intelligent contrarian investor will see cases where a stock has fallen for a specific reason but by an amount far larger than that specific reason would justify. The greater the information asymmetry, the more likely you are being offered a lemon.
Track where the world’s largest institutional investors (endowment funds, pension funds such as CalPERS) put their money so that you can potentially piggyback off the decisions of their well-compensated investment managers – though keep in mind how your time horizon differs.
Most bubbles have their origins in some real event - an economic, technological, or geopolitical event that changes the fundamental determinants (though not the fundamental principles or asset valuations), e.g., the internet, cryptocurrency, AI. Whenever there is such a change, there is a human tendency toward enthusiasm, to exaggerate the pace and significance of that change, and that tendency is increased if the enthusiasm starts off profitable and is fashionable. Those who criticize the bubbles are called fools, and often eventually join the party. Isaac Newton was an example of someone who saw that the South Sea Company bubble was a fraud, but ultimately invested: “I can predict the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of crowds”, Newton lamented as he counted his losses when the bubble burst.
The intelligent investor understands that investing in a basket of blue chip companies does not necessarily constitute “low risk” because their returns are so strongly correlated with each other. Beware the false perception of security.
Finally, notwithstanding the excitement of trying to prove Mr. Market wrong, keep in mind the strong possibility that a share price has fallen because someone else knows something you don’t. An intelligent contrarian investor will see cases where a stock has fallen for a specific reason but by an amount far larger than that specific reason would justify. The greater the information asymmetry, the more likely you are being offered a lemon.
July 14, 2020
I used to know nothing about investing. I don’t have much spare cash and I’m not a gambler by nature. However, the modest success of several friends who have invested has given me hope that maybe I could try it, too. I wanted to learn more, but investment advice is often full of esoteric language and complex models that make your head spin. This book helps to clarify the world of finance by assuming that the reader is educated and intelligent, only lacking the specialist knowledge of the field. It doesn’t talk down to its readers and makes the premise that if you follow a few key precepts, you can guess just as well as professional investment advisers and avoid their expensive fees. The book covers the basic jargon, explains how risk works and how to minimise it, the difference between short-term gains and long-term patience, effective strategies, market psychology, and what a good, diverse portfolio looks like. Unfortunately, some of the calculation examples are not very clear and this takes away a little from otherwise sage advice. Nevertheless, I was heartened by the fact that the book mostly agrees with what my friends say, so it seems fairly sound. Now that I know a little about investing, maybe the next time I get a bit of spare cash, I won’t spend it on beer, but make it work for me instead.
August 24, 2025
I enjoyed this book. For those considering reading it, it is best to understand the book as two separate but related treatments of investment - the first is of the analytical tools, approaches and structures within the finance world itself; the second is of how the individual may navigate these and apply them for their own ends. Do not expect that the book is exclusively about individual investment strategies - it is not, and that is no bad thing if you are looking to also deepen your understanding of how markets work, which the author assumes that his readers are.
Some parts of the book may be challenging for readers who have not had some instruction in finance or economics previously. There are many theoretical discussions in the book that some may view as esoteric, while others may find them compelling. For my part, I enjoyed these aspects of the book as they shed light on the inherent limitations of certain practices within the world of investment and investment management. If you want the baby without the labour, you can probably skip these chapters and still benefit from the chapters at the start and end of the book that give more practical advice.
Some parts of the book may be challenging for readers who have not had some instruction in finance or economics previously. There are many theoretical discussions in the book that some may view as esoteric, while others may find them compelling. For my part, I enjoyed these aspects of the book as they shed light on the inherent limitations of certain practices within the world of investment and investment management. If you want the baby without the labour, you can probably skip these chapters and still benefit from the chapters at the start and end of the book that give more practical advice.
January 1, 2022
Enjoyable run through of approaches to risk vs uncertainty, CapM, high level portfolio thinking; but needs to be acted on carefully. On one hand he details the depth of analysis many pro investors use via different models, but then suggests you treat these sceptically and instead act on some pretty subjective approaches, eg focussing on a firm’s competitive advantages etc. He barely mentions passive or near-passive funds, which for most are all that is needed. No specific methods on how to select assets are given, but he does suggest ditching advisors, buying undervalued assets and closed ended funds near / below NAV. That can easily work against most people who don’t have time to monitor their selections, can easily choose poorly and have no ‘second chance’ - better to pay for some guidance or select a diverse mix of well-regarded funds and end up close to your financial targets, than be way off because you’ve messed up!
April 12, 2020
Tämä oli juuri oikea kirja kun oli ehtinyt muutaman kuukauden sulatella Grahamin Intelligent Investoria. Kay rakentaa Grahamin ideoiden varaan ja päivittää käytäntöä 2000-luvulle. Pidin kirjoitustyylistä joka oli persoonallisempi kuin oppikirjassa, mutta ei tavalla joka monissa selfhelp kirjoissa vain naamioi tyhjää sisältöä. Finanssiteorian lisäksi Kay käy kiitettävästi läpi käytännön neuvoja oman portfolion rakentamiseen ja mielestäni loistavasti sitoo teoreettiset käsitteet yksityissijoittajalle hyödyllisiksi.
August 16, 2022
Took my time with this one! Combination of life getting in the way and procrastinating from reading it because it’s quite heavy in patches. However, I can’t fault the book as a financial support, it’s given me new ideas to take on board (SEU, “mind my portfolio”) that I will use in future as well as reaffirming previously held ideas (diversification is king, ‘why buy what they want to sell?’). The general message of take control of your finances because you’re the person who cares and should care the most about them is really important and something I hope to do forever.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
May 28, 2017
(I read the 2016 second edition, considerably updated from the first edition, as he makes clear in the text.)
A very clear, practice oriented account of finance and investment. John Kay has written other (excellent) books on the financial sector more generally, and on the sources of long-term competitive advantage for businesses. Here he brings his knowledge to bear to help individuals navigate the retail investment environment. The result is illuminating for anyone interested in finance.
A very clear, practice oriented account of finance and investment. John Kay has written other (excellent) books on the financial sector more generally, and on the sources of long-term competitive advantage for businesses. Here he brings his knowledge to bear to help individuals navigate the retail investment environment. The result is illuminating for anyone interested in finance.
July 13, 2018
Very short read. I don't know how to invest money. With my 401k I was just doing whatever a co-worker was doing until he retired. After I learned his system I was a little alarmed at how unsophisticated his method was. So I decided to read up to help decide where I should be putting slender pile of shekels. This book helped me out in that regard. It has had a cooling of my nerves effect for which I am most appreciative.
January 2, 2020
Really interesting stuff. A very in depth look at investment and money management with some useful advice and counsel throughout. Be prepared for being thrown directly into more technical descriptions and explanations, they are mostly covered very thoroughly however I was still left with the odd confusion.
Definitely a book I will be checking back in with and rereading in the future, and a must read for anyone who wants to learn more about managing their savings.
Definitely a book I will be checking back in with and rereading in the future, and a must read for anyone who wants to learn more about managing their savings.
March 20, 2019
If you're British and want to understand the basic lay of the land of retirement and investing, John Kay's book is for you. A good read, you get to understand enough about ISA's to intelligently approach advisers or ask questions to dismiss the bad ones.
Quite thorough. Would only appeal if you have skin in that game, if you're an American reader I'd recommend Chris Hogan's Retire Inspired.
Quite thorough. Would only appeal if you have skin in that game, if you're an American reader I'd recommend Chris Hogan's Retire Inspired.
September 9, 2025
The Long and the Short of It: Finance and Investment for Normally Intelligent People Who Are Not In by John Kay is a clear, accessible guide to the principles of finance and investing. Kay explains concepts like risk, diversification, and market behaviour in a way that is approachable for readers without a finance background, while weaving in interesting anecdotes from real markets.
I found the book solid but not particularly groundbreaking. It’s informative and often entertaining, but the lessons aren’t especially novel if you’ve read other introductory finance books (or like me, worked in this space). Still, for someone looking for a practical, understandable overview of investment thinking, it’s a worthwhile read.
I found the book solid but not particularly groundbreaking. It’s informative and often entertaining, but the lessons aren’t especially novel if you’ve read other introductory finance books (or like me, worked in this space). Still, for someone looking for a practical, understandable overview of investment thinking, it’s a worthwhile read.
August 22, 2018
A fantastically and very in-depth written book, giving any person interested in managing their own finances a great deal of knowledge and ideas. A must read for anyone who considers themselves proactive.
March 25, 2019
Informative book, great for a beginner who knows nothing/little about investing. Let down by its lack of proofreading, many spelling mistakes (bunds instead of bonds), incorrect table references and maths errors. Still a useful book.
May 5, 2019
Insightful and wise assessment
John Kay assessment of a complex and dry subject is delightful. Questioning the value of conventional wisdom with an intelligent guide to financial economics, this is a fascinating introduction to disentangle bravado and high charges.
John Kay assessment of a complex and dry subject is delightful. Questioning the value of conventional wisdom with an intelligent guide to financial economics, this is a fascinating introduction to disentangle bravado and high charges.
May 29, 2021
If you are uncomfortable with finance/maths and are thinking about starting investing, I wouldn't read this book first, nor cover to cover, because you may find it overwhelming. Good content though, good examples...
December 29, 2017
This was my first book about finance and investment, and although I didn't understand it completely (a lot of new terms) - it was illuminating and gave me some confidence to start investing.
January 27, 2019
Excellent book. Well written and relatively concise. Lots of valuable advice for anyone.
August 5, 2020
Eminently sensible.
October 15, 2020
‘Inspired’ by Graham and Dodd and in an awe of warren buffet. If you are looking tips for security selection, m afraid it’s a wrong place! But the book does give you a peek in the theories of economics and finance. And decent explanation about the funds and bonds.
March 23, 2021
Really helpful guide to investment. My friends who are far more expert than me say that some of his advice is slightly out of date but nonetheless a really engaging and accessible survey.
October 27, 2021
Decent book but could be a quarter of the length. To be honest you should only read the last 2 chapters
January 7, 2024
About 70% of this book went well above my head. But I am pretty sure , the 30% that I was able to absorb will reap huge benefits
Displaying 1 - 30 of 44 reviews