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Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet: Assessing and Adapting to Planetary Limits

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Where is humanity going? How realistic is a future of fusion and space colonies? What constraints are imposed by physics, by resource availability, and by human psychology? Are default expectations grounded in reality?

This textbook, written for a general-education audience, aims to address these questions without either the hype or the indifference typical of many books. The message throughout is that humanity faces a broad sweep of foundational problems as we inevitably transition away from fossil fuels and confront planetary limits in a host of unprecedented ways—a shift whose scale and probable rapidity offers little historical guidance.

Salvaging a decent future requires keen awareness, quantitative assessment, deliberate preventive action, and—above all—recognition that prevailing assumptions about human identity and destiny have been cruelly misshapen by the profoundly unsustainable trajectory of the last 150 years. The goal is to shake off unfounded and unexamined expectations, while elucidating the relevant physics and encouraging greater facility in quantitative reasoning.

After addressing limits to growth, population dynamics, uncooperative space environments, and the current fossil underpinnings of modern civilization, various sources of alternative energy are considered in detail— assessing how they stack up against each other, and which show the greatest potential. Following this is an exploration of systemic human impediments to effective and timely responses, capped by guidelines for individual adaptations resulting in reduced energy and material demands on the planet’s groaning capacity. Appendices provide refreshers on math and chemistry, as well as supplementary material of potential interest relating to cosmology, electric transportation, and an evolutionary perspective on humanity’s place in nature.

445 pages, ebook

Published March 10, 2021

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Thomas W. Murphy Jr.

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Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews
Profile Image for Matthew Dahlhausen.
24 reviews5 followers
August 21, 2021
This is a textbook with a message - that humanity is in a short growth window and we will face hard energy and resource limits within a few hundred years at our present growth rates. The core argument of this book is made in Chapters 1 and 2 (28 pages). The argument goes 1) there is a finite amount of energy available, limited by solar capacity, 2) decoupling of energy from the economy is ultimately limited; we can only grow non-energy intense parts of the economy so much as a percentage of the overall economy, 3) space colonization is extremely difficult if not impossible given how inhospitable space is, and therefore 4) economic growth will eventually cease given limited energy and resources.

Some economists have contested this argument of course, either calling it Malthusian, or pointing to the Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon contest that proved that at least in the short-term humans can adapt or innovate around resource scarcity. Another criticism, which is somewhat fair, is that the author is confusing the growth centered nature of the present economy with economics itself. Economics, properly defined, is the allocation of scarce resources and that a rapidly approaching post-scarcity world will naturally result in economic stabilization.

Regardless of the counterarguments, this book doesn't leave much wiggle room here for optimists to claim, "Humans are smart, innovative, and will figure out something. People 200 years ago could not have possibly predicted our capabilities today, so we are likewise ill-equipped to predict how amazing the future will be." p.351
Our current economy is dependent on growth. On a long time horizon, especially on the civilization scale of 10,000 years, humans will need to adopt strong sustainability. Collectively adopting a new economic model and staying within limits is an immense challenge. Should we fail, humanity may be closer to the end of its existence than the beginning.

The core argument above is all contained in Part 1 Setting the Stage: Growth and Limitations and the Epilogue, and that part of the book can stand on its own. Parts 2 and 3 of the book give an excellent layperson introduction to understanding thermodynamics and energy in all its fossil and renewable forms. Read this if you are unfamiliar with the difference between energy and power, don't understand how a heat pump works, or are unclear on the scale and potential for fossil fuel replacements.

Part 4 is a meandering mind dump on whether human evolution and psychology is able to succeed at this sustainability challenge. It's the weakest part of the book, and veers away from being a textbook. The author relies on Myers Briggs personality types and perceptions of governance to assess whether humanity can have a coordinated plan to meet the challenge. The energy trap argument also appears here, which uses lower rates of energy return on energy investment from renewables versus fossil fuels to argue that humanity could find itself energy constrained in the switch from fossil fuels. This argument was common in the peak oil community more than a decade ago, and now as then vastly underestimates the flexibility of the energy supply. This part of the book is under-researched and will be picked apart by unscrupulous critics to distract from the core message of the book.

Overall, I'd recommend this book to anyone interested in longtermism, sustainability, or post-growth economics. There is much to build upon. What does this mean for international and inter-generational inequity? What are economic and regulatory responses? And what foundational research is most needed to prepare for long term sustainability? This book provides a good foundation for answering those questions.
35 reviews7 followers
November 18, 2021
This is a wonderful book on estimating mid-term future energy challenges to humanity. Specifically, it attempts to answer the question: how do we supply 18 TW of power globally once we no longer use fossil fuels (either because they’ve run out or because of successful global regulatory regimes). The answer is that it will be very hard and Murphy explains exactly how to back that up with feasibility estimates for other technologies.

The book ends with the thought-provoking question of whether or not humanity is in its infancy or is it closer to the end than the beginning? Projecting forward 10,000 years with what we know at present, how might we live?

Incredible book.
Profile Image for Alex.
166 reviews9 followers
June 7, 2021
A delightful, thought provoking and free-of-charge textbook on core physical concepts related to sustainable human existence. The opening and closing chapters are rich with useful rules of thumb and their derivations; the filling of this conceptual sandwich supplies a solid mathematical background on resource limitations and approaches to sustainable living. It’s written in an accessible and fun style and while the topic may give me existential dread, the book does not.

I do wish the author took games a little more seriously (what better way to get people to engage with systems?) and had just skipped the too-big-for-a-chapter question of how we sociopolitically achieve change, but these are modest issues with a rewarding book.
Profile Image for Etienne Lefebvre.
2 reviews
January 6, 2025
In 2020, amid the COVID lockdowns, I discovered the largest online forum dedicated to discussions on civilizational collapse. Initially, I dismissed the content on r/collapse, it seemed overly pessimistic, the kind of doomerism I didn’t want to take seriously. And yet, I found myself spending more and more time on this forum. I realized that on some level I wanted to find reassurance that the possibility of collapse was exaggerated. But the more I read, the more I discovered that a significant contingent of experts across various fields like finance, energy, climate science, and ecology have been ringing the alarm bells on collapse. What struck me the most was that the arguments used by these experts came from a place of radical honesty, a place where the wishful thinking of eco-modernism is temporarily suspended and replaced with systematic scientific assessment. Dr. Tom Murphy can be said to be one of these experts embodying this spirit of radical scientific honesty.

Tom Murphy, a renowned astrophysicist from the University of California, San Diego, first captured attention with his blog Do the Math in 2011. Through creative and quantitative analyses, he explored the energy, climate, and societal implications of continued growth on a finite planet. A decade later, he expanded these ideas into Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet: Assessing and Adapting to Planetary Limits. This 465-page textbook goes beyond his blog, offering a deep dive into the limits of growth and challenging readers to build their knowledge base upon a solid scientific foundation. Murphy’s take on collapse is neither alarmist nor dismissive, but grounded in a sober understanding of physics, mathematics, and our dependency on finite energy sources.

Murphy starts the book by jumping straight into the math of exponential relationships. In his traditional Do the Math fashion, Murphy walks you through just how much energy we would need to produce if we stuck to our historic 2.9% yearly growth rate. Very quickly, the math leads to scenarios like covering the whole planet with solar panels, and then to Dyson spheres capturing the energy of a whole galaxy. Murphy’s point is clear: it’s impossible to sustain such exponential growth in energy, and we should not expect future energy production to follow the same trajectory we've seen over the past 200 years.

So, what should we expect the future of our energy landscape to look like? Murphy devotes much of the book to exploring this very question, meticulously analyzing the energy sources we currently rely on, from fossil fuels to renewables, and assessing their potential to sustain future growth. He doesn’t shy away from highlighting the exceptional qualities of fossil fuels, such as their high energy density, high energy return on investment, and near-perfect energy storage, as well as the immense challenge of finding substitutes for their various uses in our industrial consumer society. On the other hand, Murphy also recognizes the potential for wind and solar to play a much larger role in our global energy system. However, he warns that sustaining our annual energy growth through these renewables will be daunting, as the substantial financial investments needed could trigger significant political and societal repercussions, potentially undermining the stability of governance systems.

Beyond the technical aspects, Murphy dives into the human and systemic barriers to effective change. He explores psychological hurdles, like our belief in perpetual progress and the reluctance to confront the possibility of decline that make it difficult for societies to act decisively. This part of the book resonated deeply with me, echoing the frustrations I’d encountered when I was first exposed to the r/collapse forum: a widespread denial of the severity of our situation, even when the evidence is clear.

Murphy’s way of communicating the severity of collapse risk is both candid and thought-provoking. He distinguishes between "problems" and "predicaments." Problems imply solutions, but Murphy argues that we face a predicament, a complex interconnected set of challenges that can’t be simply "solved" with technical fixes. This forces us to confront the reality that there are no easy answers, and that our pursuit of quick fixes often makes things worse. Instead, Murphy suggests we adapt our lives to align with the planet’s finite limits, acknowledging that some paths forward will require profound changes in how we live and use resources.

Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet is more than just a book; it’s a vital resource for anyone serious about understanding the scope of the challenges we face. It’s a call to action for those who recognize that the path we’re on is unsustainable and that wishful thinking won’t suffice. In a world where discussions around energy and sustainability often swing between blind optimism and paralyzing fear, Murphy’s book is a beacon of clarity and reason. This book is a crucial contribution to the conversation about our future, one that demands we rethink our assumptions and adapt to the realities of our finite world.
56 reviews3 followers
December 24, 2021
This very good book is in some sense a successor to David Mackay’s famous “Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air”, although the author’s aims here are more ambitious: nothing less than a plea for an overhaul of human society, but with a good deal more grounding than such entreaties usually contain. Murphy shares with Mackay a satisfying insistence on deriving deep understanding from simple principles and learning to estimate and calculate things, rather than look every number up. Murphy’s book (at least in the first three parts) is conceived as a textbook, and while it is aimed at a very broad range of educated folks with an interest in environmental issues, it is designed to be suitable for people with no particular knowledge of physics – which means that readers with an engineering or scientific background will find themselves skimming quickly over some early sections. Plenty of exercises are also provided for serious students.

The text is very well structured, full of excellent examples, sidelines and figures, and it is an absolute mine of useful basic concepts and information for anyone interested in environmental policy, energy policy, or the future of human civilisation. The first three parts contain many fine examples of how to derive surprisingly far-reaching conclusions from a solid understanding of the underlying physics. This starts with a quick and memorable demonstration of the impossibility of sustained economic growth over the next few centuries, a real eye-opener for me. My only quibble with these sections would be that Murphy appears to be very cool towards nuclear energy, for reasons which are not apparent from the data that he offers (including a really excellent summary of radioactivity and why it is an issue in nuclear fission). Having skilfully described the issue of nuclear waste, he then goes on to proclaim it as essentially unsolved and potentially unsolvable, an opinion for which he gives no justification, and which I and many others do not share.

In a later section the author seeks to broaden out into formulating a basis for policy, and as he wanders outside of his area of expertise, the caboose unfortunately comes off the rails a little. His laudable fondness for deriving everything from first principles leads him to attempt to ground his policy discussion in the study of human behaviour. Unfortunately, this is mined terrain, lethal to non-specialists, where a century and a half of Freud/Jung influence has left islands of reasonably useful scientific theory scattered in a vast expanse of speculative bogland. For a reader like myself with an academic grounding in both engineering and cognitive science, it was frustrating to see a fine succession of impeccably hard-nosed chapters on physics directly followed by a foray into Myers-Briggs psychobabble.

Strangely, I detected a hint of animistic Earth-worship in these latter chapters – the author appears tempted to characterise the natural environment as morally good and somehow benign, a benevolent entity with which to establish a partnership. But the environment has neither intentionality nor moral value. We have got so far by exploiting it and mitigating its dangerous unpredictability. We cannot go on for very long managing it in the same way as we did in the last two centuries, as Murphy demonstrates; but manage it we can, and should, with our interest in mind. The author calls for a “partnership” with the environment, and it’s kind of hard to picture what he means – the only demonstrated instance of the human race in a non-exploitative partnership with nature occurred tens of thousands of years ago: a few thousand hunter-gatherers in small bands, scattered around the tropics, having no lasting impact. That is what the Earth’s unmodified environment can sustainably support- and even then it would do so in a haphazard fashion, regularly and randomly wiping out communities in a variety of ways. It seems the future that Murphy has in mind, thankfully, is something entirely different. And to that end, I would argue that subordinating the human race’s interests to those of “the natural environment”, though it might sound enlightened, is not at all wise.
Profile Image for Joshua.
Author 1 book49 followers
December 21, 2021
Dr. Murphy explores why exponential growth for long periods of time is impossible and our limits as a species with regards to physical and energy resources. After a few basic chapters on the problems of resources and climate change and why commonly suggested solutions (i.e. space, decoupling, substitution) aren't fixes, he takes a deep dive into our current fossil fuel usage and the energy potential of various renewable resources. The. final section of the book is speculation about potential solutions (i.e. downsizing our lifestyles) and some speculation about Meyers-Briggs personality types making action impossible until it is too late.

Out of all the collapse books I've read this year, this one is the most sane. Dr. Murphy clearly explains how our current society is addicted to exponential growth and how this cannot continue. The math with regards to energy use (ideally adding up to 18 TW) is also really great and I would recommend advocates of renewables and nuclear to check this book out. One thing that I did wish was provided was more of a roadmap to reducing energy use and a deeper dive into how to explain this concepts to non-believers in collapse.
Profile Image for Toby Newton.
262 reviews32 followers
December 2, 2024
I’m not sure about “general-education audience” but this textbook is a must-read, even and perhaps especially for those who cannot follow all the maths (like me). Basically, I have to trust both Tom Murphy’s physics chops and his intentions - and I do.

His message is, actually, even simpler and more definitive than he, on occasions, portrays it in the book. It’s when he’s at his starkest that the full weight of the argument hits: even if we were to “solve” the energy problem brought about by the diminishing reserves of fossil fuel, there are many other factors that will bring down modernity as practiced. In fact, discovering a viable alternative to fossil fuels that enabled “business as usual” would be the most damaging next step of all. Civilisation in its accelerated, profligate, growth-reliant form has a sell-by date and we must recognise that and turn towards something more sustainable and steady state or suffer the consequences (the harbingers of which are all around us).

Tom’s careful, step-by-step analysis of our predicament is humane, patient, and humorous; and not altogether without an element of hope.
4 reviews1 follower
June 14, 2024
Came across this Neo-Malthusian work after seeing something else made by the author. This work makes very predictable anti-human arguments that are very unoriginal. Doesn't really address any of the critiques that are quite old now themselves of this very old approach. I'll just recommend one author to anyone who reads this kind of thing and thinks it's something insightful, Julian Simon. He already made a public mockery of Paul Ehrlich some generation plus ago and he wrote a book to counter the kind of mindset put forth in this work, The Ultimate Resource (1981) and a follow up the Ultimate Resource 2 (1996).
Profile Image for Evgueni Alexeev.
1 review
June 14, 2022
Having already used up nearly half of all the available fossil fuels on our planet, we are racing towards a cliff at an exponentially increasing rate. There is no viable alternatives on the horizon (except maybe solar), or even a general acknowledgement of the problem. Solar is expensive and difficult to store, nuclear is a fossil fuel in its own right, and hydro/geothermal/wind won't move the needle. Fusion is perpetually O(10) years away.

Bottom line is, we're fucked. Excellent book.
Profile Image for Ondra.
5 reviews
February 12, 2023
I really like how grounded in physics this book is. It is not just random talk that you can make up easily and argue for whatever you want, which is what usually happens on social networks. People always say that everything can be theoretically solved by doing this and that. But in this book you learn the numbers and why people out there are mostly wrong about their intuition. The devil is hidden in the detail and it is critical to understand the details, which really are presented here.
8 reviews
June 1, 2025
Probably one of the best books written on this subject. Requires some elementary math and physics knowledge to fully enjoy. Puts the whole finite world in a solid quantitative ground.
26 reviews
May 6, 2025
Best book I've read on the big picture of the energy landscape, put into the context of long-term possibility of growth (cf. it is not possible). Extremely well-written and important.
Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews

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