What do you think?
Rate this book
Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know: A Practical Guide to Heuristics, Probability, Game Theory, Scenario Planning, & Effective Decision Making
Introduction to Decision Making Scenario Planning and Prediction MarketsGroup MechanicsHeuristics and Programmed DecisionsProbability and Base Rate Neglect Make tough decisions with this dynamic toolbox of decision analysis techniques to transform the business!Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to assess tough decisions they face- and eventually make the right choice- by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make.The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, Cognitive biases and Prospect TheoryHeuristicsProbability and Expected ValueBayes TheoremMulti-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methodsGame TheoryPrediction MarketsBrainstorming and GroupthinkBlack Swan EventsEach chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.About the SeriesThe Self-Learning Management series is designed to help students, new managers, career switchers and entrepreneurs learn essential management lessons. This series has management books, finance and accounting books, and strategy and marketing books designed to address every aspect of business from HR to Finance to Marketing to Operations. Each book includes basic fundamentals, important concepts, standard and well-known principles as well as practical ways of application of the subject matter. The distinctiveness of the series lies in that all the relevant information is bundled in a compact form that is very easy to interpret.
- GenresNonfiction
192 pages, Kindle Edition
Published December 2, 2020
14 people are currently reading
33 people want to read
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 11 of 11 reviews
August 2, 2021
In my business roles, I am constantly weighing options for decision input and have read a lot on this subject. The author has written a concise but informative book on the various decision-making processes, techniques, and considerations for quantitative and qualitative decision situations. The questions following the chapters and the examples are helpful for reinforcing the material. The author also included essential material on biases and interpretive issues that can skew decision-making. Additionally, frank discussion of decision-making technique weaknesses and unsuitability for certain problems will be helpful for developing these skills. The author used a wide range of applications and illustrations and practical implementations such as negotiation strategies. I highly recommend the book for those who want one source to become familiar with a wide variety of decision-making techniques.
February 24, 2021
DECISION MAKING ESSENTIALS: You Always Wanted To Know
DECISION MAKING ESSENTIALS: You Always Wanted To Know: Publisher: Vibrant Publishers, USA; Author: Mark Koscinski, Pp.: 188, Price: Rs. 499/= (Paperback edition), Language: English, First Edition: Jan 2021, ISBN-10: 1-63651-002-7, ISBN-13: 978-1-63651-002-6, (Ebook and Hardback editions are also available) Posted on 24/02/21.
While running any organization, certain decisions have to be taken at different times, depending on the prevailing and/or expected situations, by the person at the helm of affairs and also at different levels of the organization or by a group of persons like in a committee. These decisions could be of small, minor, major or strategic nature. Every leader, manager and person would like to possess the ability to think & take quick and correct decisions in the field of his responsibility. But in practical situations, normally we may have some options and therefore we, as a leader, have to consider the pros and cons of the options and then arrive at a final decision. These decisions may be taken based on the gut feeling of the top management or on the basis of mathematical calculations using certain theories. Generally speaking, the decisions based on mathematical calculations are expected to result in better decisions. For this purpose, the leader should have some basic knowledge of the methods of Decision making. The problems at different times are expected to be different and they may accordingly need different methods of handling and resolution. For the mangers to take the right decisions, they must first of all learn, all the “essentials”, and then practise them in their organization. Hence there is a necessity of such a book to help in Decision making appropriately. If appropriate decisions are taken by the management, at different times, considering all possible aspects, the organization will be successful & profitable and will thus project an excellent image in the Corporate world.
This book is one under Self-Learning Management Series of the publisher. After providing of the initial information by the publishers, views of six experts, about the author and Preface, the book presents systematically organized Table of Contents. There are in all, eleven Chapters in the book, covering Introduction to Decision Making, Cognitive Processes and their Limitations, Gathering Data: How much is enough, Group Mechanics, Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets, Heuristic and Programmed Decisions, Probability and Base rate neglect, The SMART method, EBA and Even Swaps, Sensitivity analysis, Negotiating and selling the Final decision. Towards the end of the book, Glossary containing 154 terms with their explanations and Bibliography, having 17 references have been provided. After a study of this book, one is expected to understand the essentials of Decision making in an organization.
Chapter 1 of the book discusses about effect of poor data, poor decision model, faulty recommendations and unsound decisions. The author talks about risk, uncertainty, objectives and analysis before taking a decision. A decision model for simple problems is needed, data collected and analyzed to arrive at a decision. Complex problems are generally dealt by a group of persons and not by an individual. This is the topic in Chapter 4. Consultations may be formal or informal. A committee may be formed. Techniques like Brainstorming may be used. Chapter 7 discusses about use of Probability to analyze risks, since every decision taken involves certain risks. We all would like to have absolute certainty about our decisions, but it is very difficult. Hence we have to use the Theory of Probability and thereby assess the probability of occurrence of the event. Decision Tree gives graphical representation of the probability of occurrences of the outcomes. The author discusses other Statistical parameters also. Sensitivity Analysis has been discussed in Chapter 10. This enables us to know the effect of changes in some data or assumptions on our decision. The decisions are tested before implementing them, through some techniques mentioned. Information about the steps, after Decision analysis and conclusion are given in Chapter 11. Rules for discussing and negotiating with the stakeholders, problems of asymmetric information, use of Game theory and selling the decision etc. are also covered in this Chapter.
The book offers a sound base for obtaining advanced knowledge in each topic of Decision Making and for application in actual profession. It is a powerful guide and gives an overview of the role and importance of Decision making in an organization. It explains the concepts of Decision making methods for use in practical situations. With easy to understand language and simple approach to the topics, it is pleasing for readers to read and understand. Brief details of the book have been provided on the back cover page. Printing is good and appears to be free of errors. The quality of paper used for the book is very good. Amongst the other good points of the book are providing, at the beginning of each Chapter, what the readers are expected to discuss and explore in that particular Chapter, providing Chapter summary & Discussion questions, at the end of each Chapter. The number of Discussion questions, Chapter wise, varies from 2 to 5 with the total number of questions in the book being 33. Questions are given for critical areas and the readers are motivated to seek their solutions on their own and in case of difficulty get the solutions downloaded from a website, whose link has been provided. In Chapter 7, after the Discussion questions, additional 7 questions have been provided as “Test your knowledge”. For the Discussion questions at the end of Chapter 7, hints have also been given for the 3 questions given. In all, the book has 11 figures and 20 tables. Also there are 60 footnotes in the book, which are spread over all the Chapters. Number of pages in the Chapters; vary from 7 to 32, and are as per the need of the topic. The Cover design is simple, but colourful and pleasant. The book provides accurate relevant information/explanation/description on the various topics. For the prospective or upcoming Decision Making Managers, there is a lot to learn from the book, to get prepared to take appropriate decisions for better results, without stress. It is an excellent book in the field of Decision Making for those in the leadership roles, for the trainees, newcomers and self-learners interested in seeking a career in management, trainers, working Management professionals. Considering in an overall way, this book is considered very helpful for Decision making in life, including for the tough decisions. It is an essential read.
--------Reviewer:vijaiksharma
DECISION MAKING ESSENTIALS: You Always Wanted To Know: Publisher: Vibrant Publishers, USA; Author: Mark Koscinski, Pp.: 188, Price: Rs. 499/= (Paperback edition), Language: English, First Edition: Jan 2021, ISBN-10: 1-63651-002-7, ISBN-13: 978-1-63651-002-6, (Ebook and Hardback editions are also available) Posted on 24/02/21.
While running any organization, certain decisions have to be taken at different times, depending on the prevailing and/or expected situations, by the person at the helm of affairs and also at different levels of the organization or by a group of persons like in a committee. These decisions could be of small, minor, major or strategic nature. Every leader, manager and person would like to possess the ability to think & take quick and correct decisions in the field of his responsibility. But in practical situations, normally we may have some options and therefore we, as a leader, have to consider the pros and cons of the options and then arrive at a final decision. These decisions may be taken based on the gut feeling of the top management or on the basis of mathematical calculations using certain theories. Generally speaking, the decisions based on mathematical calculations are expected to result in better decisions. For this purpose, the leader should have some basic knowledge of the methods of Decision making. The problems at different times are expected to be different and they may accordingly need different methods of handling and resolution. For the mangers to take the right decisions, they must first of all learn, all the “essentials”, and then practise them in their organization. Hence there is a necessity of such a book to help in Decision making appropriately. If appropriate decisions are taken by the management, at different times, considering all possible aspects, the organization will be successful & profitable and will thus project an excellent image in the Corporate world.
This book is one under Self-Learning Management Series of the publisher. After providing of the initial information by the publishers, views of six experts, about the author and Preface, the book presents systematically organized Table of Contents. There are in all, eleven Chapters in the book, covering Introduction to Decision Making, Cognitive Processes and their Limitations, Gathering Data: How much is enough, Group Mechanics, Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets, Heuristic and Programmed Decisions, Probability and Base rate neglect, The SMART method, EBA and Even Swaps, Sensitivity analysis, Negotiating and selling the Final decision. Towards the end of the book, Glossary containing 154 terms with their explanations and Bibliography, having 17 references have been provided. After a study of this book, one is expected to understand the essentials of Decision making in an organization.
Chapter 1 of the book discusses about effect of poor data, poor decision model, faulty recommendations and unsound decisions. The author talks about risk, uncertainty, objectives and analysis before taking a decision. A decision model for simple problems is needed, data collected and analyzed to arrive at a decision. Complex problems are generally dealt by a group of persons and not by an individual. This is the topic in Chapter 4. Consultations may be formal or informal. A committee may be formed. Techniques like Brainstorming may be used. Chapter 7 discusses about use of Probability to analyze risks, since every decision taken involves certain risks. We all would like to have absolute certainty about our decisions, but it is very difficult. Hence we have to use the Theory of Probability and thereby assess the probability of occurrence of the event. Decision Tree gives graphical representation of the probability of occurrences of the outcomes. The author discusses other Statistical parameters also. Sensitivity Analysis has been discussed in Chapter 10. This enables us to know the effect of changes in some data or assumptions on our decision. The decisions are tested before implementing them, through some techniques mentioned. Information about the steps, after Decision analysis and conclusion are given in Chapter 11. Rules for discussing and negotiating with the stakeholders, problems of asymmetric information, use of Game theory and selling the decision etc. are also covered in this Chapter.
The book offers a sound base for obtaining advanced knowledge in each topic of Decision Making and for application in actual profession. It is a powerful guide and gives an overview of the role and importance of Decision making in an organization. It explains the concepts of Decision making methods for use in practical situations. With easy to understand language and simple approach to the topics, it is pleasing for readers to read and understand. Brief details of the book have been provided on the back cover page. Printing is good and appears to be free of errors. The quality of paper used for the book is very good. Amongst the other good points of the book are providing, at the beginning of each Chapter, what the readers are expected to discuss and explore in that particular Chapter, providing Chapter summary & Discussion questions, at the end of each Chapter. The number of Discussion questions, Chapter wise, varies from 2 to 5 with the total number of questions in the book being 33. Questions are given for critical areas and the readers are motivated to seek their solutions on their own and in case of difficulty get the solutions downloaded from a website, whose link has been provided. In Chapter 7, after the Discussion questions, additional 7 questions have been provided as “Test your knowledge”. For the Discussion questions at the end of Chapter 7, hints have also been given for the 3 questions given. In all, the book has 11 figures and 20 tables. Also there are 60 footnotes in the book, which are spread over all the Chapters. Number of pages in the Chapters; vary from 7 to 32, and are as per the need of the topic. The Cover design is simple, but colourful and pleasant. The book provides accurate relevant information/explanation/description on the various topics. For the prospective or upcoming Decision Making Managers, there is a lot to learn from the book, to get prepared to take appropriate decisions for better results, without stress. It is an excellent book in the field of Decision Making for those in the leadership roles, for the trainees, newcomers and self-learners interested in seeking a career in management, trainers, working Management professionals. Considering in an overall way, this book is considered very helpful for Decision making in life, including for the tough decisions. It is an essential read.
--------Reviewer:vijaiksharma
July 14, 2021
The Self-Learning Management Series aims to educate those new to the responsibilities of management, likely coming from other fields. This book does a yeoman’s job at providing exposure to foundational concepts about decision making in business. It’s like a textbook, except a bit briefer and a bit more accessible (in other words, less academic). Koscinski, a professor of business, summarizes current thought about decision-making.
Helpfully, Koscinski keeps current with the state of thought by mixing Nobel prizewinners with age-old ideas. This book enables those, like me, who did not receive a business education to quickly learn how to succeed at management. This brief summary covers many topics, like negotiation, risk, methods, and computations.
The biggest weakness of this work is that it is so, well, vanilla. It does not argue any new principle or theory, nor does it attempt to be more comprehensive than competing books. Instead, it sits, relatively undefined, in the middle. Also, many of the charts use abbreviations that are undefined; they would benefit from some elaboration and captions.
Overall, I am confident that this book, like many in this series, will serve its intended purpose of providing fundamental business education to those practicing management from another profession. However, for high-fliers and the curious, this book will just whet the tastebuds but leave deeper questions unanswered.
Helpfully, Koscinski keeps current with the state of thought by mixing Nobel prizewinners with age-old ideas. This book enables those, like me, who did not receive a business education to quickly learn how to succeed at management. This brief summary covers many topics, like negotiation, risk, methods, and computations.
The biggest weakness of this work is that it is so, well, vanilla. It does not argue any new principle or theory, nor does it attempt to be more comprehensive than competing books. Instead, it sits, relatively undefined, in the middle. Also, many of the charts use abbreviations that are undefined; they would benefit from some elaboration and captions.
Overall, I am confident that this book, like many in this series, will serve its intended purpose of providing fundamental business education to those practicing management from another profession. However, for high-fliers and the curious, this book will just whet the tastebuds but leave deeper questions unanswered.
July 13, 2021
Decision Making Essentials is a well-researched and comprehensive primer of the fundamentals and analyses of the decision making process. Mark Koscinski has masterfully distilled the literature and our current understanding of the mechanics of the process and more importantly outlines how to avoid falling prey to implicit biases and other pitfalls of making bad decisions.
The author outlines how to incorporate sufficient data, employ checks and balances and analyze available data to improve the process leading to making decisions. This info is critical, not just in business and corporate settings where large investment decisions are made, but also in everyday settings where we make a myriad of decisions each day, with profound impact on our lives.
Some of the figures cited in this publication bear more description for readers not familiar with technical aspects of the material; that said, the concepts are well-presented. This publication is a great addition to the prevailing literature!
The author outlines how to incorporate sufficient data, employ checks and balances and analyze available data to improve the process leading to making decisions. This info is critical, not just in business and corporate settings where large investment decisions are made, but also in everyday settings where we make a myriad of decisions each day, with profound impact on our lives.
Some of the figures cited in this publication bear more description for readers not familiar with technical aspects of the material; that said, the concepts are well-presented. This publication is a great addition to the prevailing literature!
January 18, 2021
Decision making essentials you always wanted to know by Mark koscinski is such a good book. Author perfectly gave the most important points for those who newly appointed managers and leaders to make a tough decision in life . This book gives whole the concepts of decision making methods to use while taking decisions or scrutinize the decisions they took.
The chapters this book includes for decision analysing -
▫️Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory
▫️Heuristics
▫️Probability and Expected Value
▫️Bayes Theorem
▫️Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods
▫️Game Theory
▫️Prediction Markets
▫️Brainstorming and Groupthink
▫️Black Swan Events.
Will help alott for decision making in life. Must read.
Thanks vibrant publishers and the author to provide this much amazing read .
Thankyou.
Aditi🌸
The chapters this book includes for decision analysing -
▫️Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory
▫️Heuristics
▫️Probability and Expected Value
▫️Bayes Theorem
▫️Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods
▫️Game Theory
▫️Prediction Markets
▫️Brainstorming and Groupthink
▫️Black Swan Events.
Will help alott for decision making in life. Must read.
Thanks vibrant publishers and the author to provide this much amazing read .
Thankyou.
Aditi🌸
July 9, 2021
This was an ebook from the Early Reviewers selection. The format of the ebook made it such that you had to page from the beginning each time you resumed reading. The author provides a discussion of various methods and strategies for decision-making. He also covers some statistics, sensitivity analysis, and negotiation strategy. Some of the decision methods are variations on others and are many are somewhat intuitive. It is nice information and is compiled together for easy reference but I am unclear on how likely I am to formally use this information. We naturally use some methods that are best suited to the situation, level of complexity, risk, and importance of the decision. I think it is unlikely that the information in the book will have any impact on my daily decision making but it was somewhat interesting.
January 20, 2021
The ability to make quick decisions and to think on the toes is something every person in general and a manager, in particular, craves for. Though in our day-to-day lives, there are various instances when one has to decide and zero down on a certain option amongst various available ones, for a person working in corporate he or she first needs to know some basics of it and that's where this book comes in handy.
Everyone aspires to be a top-notch graduate from a b-school but only a few are able to enter the hallowed portals. The concepts of cognitive biases, Bayes theorem, game theory are explained in a descriptive manner. This book is certainly an essential read especially for those who have just taken a leadership role.
Everyone aspires to be a top-notch graduate from a b-school but only a few are able to enter the hallowed portals. The concepts of cognitive biases, Bayes theorem, game theory are explained in a descriptive manner. This book is certainly an essential read especially for those who have just taken a leadership role.
January 19, 2021
Decision making is perhaps the most important component of managers activities and this book plays a major role in the process no doubt.
Mark Koscinski's Decision making essential you always wanted to know (self-learning management series) is a book that tells you exactly what you ever wanted to know, it's detailed theories, principles, examples, questions and queries will help you majorly that no other management books could compete.Those chapter summaries and discussion questions will at the end of each chapter will assist you abundantly and this book is going to level up your potential so grab this asap if you're looking for some books for management.
Mark Koscinski's Decision making essential you always wanted to know (self-learning management series) is a book that tells you exactly what you ever wanted to know, it's detailed theories, principles, examples, questions and queries will help you majorly that no other management books could compete.Those chapter summaries and discussion questions will at the end of each chapter will assist you abundantly and this book is going to level up your potential so grab this asap if you're looking for some books for management.
May 11, 2022
Decision Making Essentials by Vibrant Publishers is a resourceful book that describes the Decision Making concepts in a précised manner. The book covers a wide range of topics, from cognitive processes and group mechanics to probability and sensitivity analysis and game theory. There are descriptions of heuristics and the SMART method too, apart from collecting data and market prediction.
The language is quite simple, and the book provides numerical problems also to clarify the basic concept to the reader who is not accustomed to the same. The graphical representation makes it effortless to grasp the hypothesis. Each chapter ends with a summary of it, followed by discussion questions.
Recommended to those who are looking to widen their knowledge in the decision-making domain.
Read the full review on:
https://bit.ly/3L0wSmJ
The language is quite simple, and the book provides numerical problems also to clarify the basic concept to the reader who is not accustomed to the same. The graphical representation makes it effortless to grasp the hypothesis. Each chapter ends with a summary of it, followed by discussion questions.
Recommended to those who are looking to widen their knowledge in the decision-making domain.
Read the full review on:
https://bit.ly/3L0wSmJ
June 2, 2022
I have gone through this book once and I can say that this is the best book I have read so for regarding decision making essentials. Best book for people who are working professionals, and for students too.
April 26, 2022
Just completed reading this book...this book has some record breaking topics that i cant find on videos or on the internet. Got a very deep knowledge on decision making.
Displaying 1 - 11 of 11 reviews