Statistical Sports Models in Excel

by Andrew Mack

What does it take to create a winning sports betting model? Many people are interested in learning how to make smarter sports betting wagers. Not many of those same people are excited at the prospect of learning applied statistics to better inform their choices. You can't entirely blame them. Statistics has a well-earned reputation for being somewhat inaccessible by non-academics. It is a field filled with heavy terminology, confusing formulaic notation and concepts not fully relevant to the beginning sports bettor. To make matters worse, nobody in possession of a positive edge model is all that keen to show you how it works. As a result of this, sports modelling successfully requires a toolbox that you largely have to assemble for yourself. This book is my attempt to correct that, as I pull back the curtain on Excel spreadsheet models and techniques I developed in my first few years of sports betting. It is designed to give you an accessible crash course on modelling that will get you up to speed on the key relevant principles of statistics with a minimum amount of heavy technical jargon. You'll learn the most effective concepts in an easy-to-understand way and greatly speed up your learning curve in the process. Best of all, I'll walk you through sports betting models for many major NFL, NBA, NHL, AFL and the English Premier League. You'll even be able to download these spreadsheet models and work your way through them while following this book. We'll be doing all of this in one of the most user friendly programs Excel. This program might not be the expert's first choice of platform for modelling work, but you'll be surprised just how much you can do with a spreadsheet or two. If you're ready to take your sports modelling to the next level - open this book, fire up Excel, and let's get to work. See you on the inside.

Genres: Sports, Nonfiction, Science

181 pages, Kindle Edition

Published July 10, 2019

Reviews

[Eric Thim · Rating 3 out of 5]

I think this is a solid intro to sports modeling.

Author falls a bit short in his explanations of certain statistical concepts (I had to do a fair bit of poking around on Wikipedia and other sites to get needed clarity) and this book is focused on modeling at the team rather than the individual level, so those are the downsides. But it does a good job of explaining the challenges you’re up against and what the modeling process looks like and how to think like a modeler, which is all you can ask from an intro text like this.

I will be reading his follow-up.

[Rupert · Rating 3 out of 5]

A cursory look at some regression based and other models. Seems to flip between a lack of explanation for the underlying mathematics for more complicated models, to literally explaining p-values having spent a books worth using them.

Some good ideas and it’s an easy read (I stopped trying to follow along in Excel after the third model) - I’d recommend reading it as a book rather than try as you go.

[Andrew · Rating 4 out of 5]

Excellent introduction to sports modelling

Clear, concise and well thought out examples of how to get started with building predictive sports models.
Not participating maths centred as most of the heavy lifting has already been done via the supplied Excel files.
Highly recommended for the enthusiastic beginner.

[Gogi · Rating 5 out of 5]

Really good book with great examples. You get the feeling this isn’t meant to teach you any specific money making strategy but more so to teach you introductory models and how to think since he explains this is his purpose I give him a five star.

[bryan dunn · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great info

Great info in the book and very easy to follow along, and understand. Along with the downloadable spreadsheets should make you a better bettor

[Graham Bateson · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great breakdown of models and the approach using excel

Well thought out and insightful. A great starting point for those who would like a look into the world of sports modelling.