Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis

by Dean Oliver

At the risk of succumbing to hyperbole, Basketball on Paper is a revolutionary strike for statistical analysis of the game of basketball. . . . There has never been a basketball book quite like [it].— Hoopsworld.com Journey "inside the numbers" for an exceptional set of statistical tools and rules that can help explain the winning, or losing, ways of a basketball team.  Basketball on Paper doesn’t diagram plays or explain how players get in shape, but instead demonstrates how to interpret player and team performance. Dean Oliver highlights general strategies for teams when they’re winning or losing and what aspects should be the focus in either situation. He describes and quantifies the jobs of team leaders and role players, then discusses the interactions between players and how to achieve the best fit. Oliver conceptualizes the meaning of teamwork and how to quantify the value of different types of players working together. He examines historically successful NBA teams and identifies what made them so individual talent, a system of putting players together, or good coaching. Oliver then uses these statistical tools and case studies to evaluate the best players in history, such as Magic Johnson, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, and Charles Barkley and how they contributed to their teams’ success. He does the same for some of the NBA’s "oddball" players-Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, and Dennis Rodman and for the WNBA’s top players.  Basketball on Paper is unique in its incorporation of business and analytical concepts within the context of basketball to measure the value of players in a cooperative setting. Whether you’re looking for strategies or new ideas to throw out while watching the ballgame at a sports bar, Dean Oliver’s Basketball on Paper will give you amazing new insights into teamwork, coaching, and success. 

Genres: Sports, Basketball, Nonfiction, Science, Technical

392 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2003

Reviews

[Ethan Wolfe · Rating 5 out of 5]

I read Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver which is a guideline and informative type of book for readers who enjoy the analytical part of basketball. In this book, Dean Oliver goes deep into the game of basketball involving strategies, philosophies, myths, and stats. It is written in a first person perspective making it feel like Oliver is teaching you and even telling you stories. The tone in which he wrote the book gives you more detail on his thinking. At times he even cracks jokes. He starts the book off with the basics, including advice on how to read the book, and steadily increases the basketball jargon and teaches about more advanced topics. Other than that, the order in which I read the chapters did not matter when reading about certain topics. Oliver discusses every aspect imaginable of the game we call basketball and looks into multiple viewpoints. For me, this book was extremely enjoyable as a huge fan of the game. I enjoy learning and talking about the analytical type of sports. This book left a pleasant impression on me. I play basketball and want to have a job in basketball in the future. It changed some of my viewpoints and made me understand more angles of the game. If you are a basketball guru like me, then I would suggest you give the book a try.

[Alex · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is by far the best work I've seen on using statistics to rate players and teams in basketball. I've been thinking about this on my own for a while, and this book has really helped improve my thinking. The writing is decent considering the disparate audiences that the author is trying to reach: coaches, casual fans, and hard core stats geeks. (I am the latter.)

[Robert · Rating 3 out of 5]

What I liked most was the focus on analyzing games on a per-possession basis instead of just looking at the total number of points scored. This seems obvious in hindsight but it wasn't how people talked about basketball until relatively recently. Even now, people will talk about the time Kobe scored 81 points, or how many 40 points games Lebron or Westbrook have had in the playoffs ignoring the fact that just looking at point totals without taking into account efficiency is meaningless.

On the other hand, I found the book rambled on quite a bit and picked and dropped topics abruptly. For example, he describes a detailed notation for recording all the plays in a game and then he never mentions it again. Most of the chapters are devoted to using analytical measures to make exhaustive comparisons of players and teams of the 1980s and 1990s. This was obviously much more interesting when the book was published than it is now.

Overall, there is a lot here that will be very interesting to basketball fans, but you have to wade through a lot of cruft to get to it.

[Eliam · Rating 1 out of 5]

So here is what I got so far I really dislike the book because this book has a lot of things that doesn't have to do with basketball.I feel like this book would be more for basketball coaches its basically bout statistics from players back in the day or how to calculate team ratings.The ending chapters are the best chapters in my opinion because they show the stats and talk bout basic tools to evaluate a team. In my opinion I feel like chapter 23 was the most helpful because it talks bout the basic tools for evaluating teams.

[Kyle P · Rating 5 out of 5]

Dean Oliver, the pioneer of basketball analytics, provides an abundance of thought provoking information on how basketball can be seen from a statistical lens. Despite this, the 2003 publish date means the analytical methods and basketball data is severely outdated.

[Beerian Henderson · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great insight and amazing to see the beginning of a movement. Concepts from this book are mostly ancient now. Not too mathy for me.

[Doug Venneri · Rating 2 out of 5]

Lots of information but at times seemed more like a history lesson than applicable info. This may be better for a more experienced analytical coach

[Jb Park · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dean Oliver did a really great work on this book to suggest what kind of advanced statistical analysis can be applied to basketball.
Yes, it lacks story and some parts of the book is a little boring.
But, with John Hollinger's PER, this book was the start of the statistical analysis of basketball.
He materialized what I have imagined of for the statistical analysis.
Also, it needs to be pointed out that each of John Hollinger and Dean Oliver independently developed Off. Rat. and Def. Rat. Probably, it was the first attempt to look at the stats per possession based instead of per game or per minute.
To me, the most interesting stat this book suggested was individual winning %. It may be a combination of usage rate and WS. Anyhow, if the purpose of the individual stat is to validate the individual contribution to the team win, this might be the right direction to look at it.

[Mikey · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is it: the Bible of ABPRmetrics (sabermetrics, but for basketball). Oliver's book is full of methods, metrics, and evaluation techniques for basketball strategy and team and individual performance, all from an analytic standpoint. The math, when it needs to be, is complicated, but Oliver is never above breaking it down and explaining what it means in simple terms. Even difficult concepts like team chemistry are tackled here from a statistical standpoint, and while Oliver admits that he doesn't have all the answers (take that, Dave Berri!), he provides starting points for analyzing almost any problem. After Basketball on Paper, the sport never looks the same.

[Nikhil Kumar · Rating 5 out of 5]

I'll keep this short for now, but Basketball on Paper is probably the most well-written book I've read (include papers/articles as well) in the realm of basketball analytics. A lot of people are scared of the high-level statistics used to derive a lot of the equations used in this field, and Oliver not only acknowledges this, but does a great job of explaining concepts in lay terms for the average reader, and supporting these explanations with the math in endnotes and appendices.

I encourage any basketball fan to read this book; it will provide you with a much better way of evaluating whether a player is "good" or not, and will allow you to watch the game with a more discerning eye.

[Daniel Frank · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is the holy grail for basketball analytics. It sucks that there are no other books out there similar to this. What sucks even more is there will likely not be anymore books similar to this released in the near future. NBA teams have promoted a model where there is zero communication and knowledge sharing about analytics. They are killing the field and taking away a lot from fans. To make things even worse, because analytics employees cannot communicate with eachother, nobody really has any idea if what they are doing is right or wrong and making it harder for anyone to achieve progress.

[Tyner Wilson · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is absolutely required reading (and likely re-reading) for anyone with an interest in understanding basketball from a numbers standpoint. Dean writes in a manner that is scalable to one's understanding of the math involved making the text approachable for a variety of audiences.

I would give this book 5 stars, but it is not well organized. The last chapter should be the first, the second chapter should be an appendix, etc.

[Oren Cohen · Rating 5 out of 5]

Outdated by now but similarly to the bible, you read this to know where it all started.

There are still some interesting stats for people who grew up in the 90's or earlier. If you're only getting started with basketball analytics, this is a great intro.
If you've already been around the field for a bit longer, than you won't find anything new here but you will get a firm understanding of the basics that make up all of today's advanced stats.

[Oliver Bateman · Rating 4 out of 5]

A fine, thought-provoking collection of essays by current Denver Nuggets analyst and UNC-CH alum Dean Oliver. Unlike most dense works of statistical sports analysis, this one actually leaves the reader with an enhanced ability to appreciate the flow of the game--a quality that undoubtedly owes much to Oliver's time on the Caltech basketball team.

[Andres · Rating 4 out of 5]

Some of the math can be a bit difficult and the chapter on usage curves has an odd breakout where the author breaks down and just spews "All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy"

That said the insights in this book are brilliant and are done by a keen analyst with a good understanding of the game.

[Patrick · Rating 4 out of 5]

The foundational book for hoops stat-heads. It's been surpassed by more recent works, but this is still a decent place to start if you want to understand the basics of statistical analysis of basketball and some of the basic "advanced" statistics that Oliver and others developed.

[Laurent · Rating 5 out of 5]

For anyone interested in basketball and advanced statistics, this is the bible. Sure, some of the concepts/ideas in this book have been improved or updated but this is where it all started for this sport.

[Matt · Rating 4 out of 5]

I'm a nerd. So what.

[Jeramey · Rating 3 out of 5]

A bit dated now, but probably quite eye opening if you're not at all familiar with basketball stats.

Could use a refresh.

[Jordan · Rating 4 out of 5]

A bit dated, but it's the bible and Dean Oliver has provided the basis for some of today's modern metrics. Still a must read for anyone interested in basketball stats and analytics.

[Aitor Arrazola · Rating 5 out of 5]

I felt in love with this book! So useful and entertained for basketball enthusiast! I will reread it for sure.

[Arne · Rating 4 out of 5]

I guess other sports do exist...
Some great ideas AND clear distinction analysis for performance improvement vs narrative building