As the war in Europe entered its final months, the world teetered on the edge of a Third World War. While Soviet forces hammered their way into Berlin, Churchill ordered British military planners to prepare the top secret Operation Unthinkable - the plan for an Allied attack on the Soviet Union - on 1 July 1945. Using US, British and Polish forces, the invasion would reclaim Eastern Europe. The controversial plan called for the use of Nazi troops, and there was the spectre of the atomic bomb. Would yet another army make the fatal mistake of heading East?In Churchill’s Third World War Jonathan Walker presents a haunting study of the war that so nearly was. He outlines the motivations behind Churchill’s plan, the logistics of launching a vast assault against an enemy who had bested Hitler, potential sabotage by Polish communists, and he speculates whether the Allies would have succeeded had the operation gone forward. Well supported by a wide range of primary sources from the Churchill Archives Centre, Sikorski Institute, National Archives and Imperial War Museum, this is a fascinating insight into the upheaval as the Second World War drew to a close and former alliances were shattered. Operation Unthinkable became the blueprint for the Cold War.
They say insanity is repeating the same thing over and over expecting the different result. And this is what this book is about.
Winston Churchill definitely had some axe to grind with the Russia/USSR. It was not humanism, trust me otherwise India and colonies in Africa would be treated humanely even before WW2. If you ask me, it was part anger for Russia leaving WW1 (instead acting as a good distraction and just burn in flames), part anger for what happened to Russian royals (blood is not water, and royal houses keep their blood safe while slaughtering everyone else) and part the Great Game inherited from before WW1 that USSR continued in big style after consolidating the power. And all of this cooked for looong time.
With all this taken into account, what is first thing Churchill thinks about when WW2 nears the end? Of course, same thing that was done at the end of WW1 - fight the USSR/Bolsheviks on all fronts and for that purpose use the demobilized and captured German troops as these were used in the Baltic Sea area after WW1. Moment author started mentioning Soviet hordes, and calling German Hitlerjugend and young army and SS officers to be used as cannon fodder in Churchill's plan as tigers (!) it is very clear that book will be very biased. And I dont think author was recreating the atmosphere of 1940's.
Dont get me wrong - was Red Army pillaging entire Germany as they progressed to Berlin? Of course they did. Was there rape and civilian casualties? Of course there was. It was war, and when it comes to Germans and Russians it was not just war - for the Germans it was goal of complete extermination of all other nations and people east of Germany, and for Russians it was fight tooth and nail to prevent that. So when the tide shifted and USSR started conquering Germany, what exactly was expected? USSR suffered millions of casualties under some of the most gruesome possible conditions, much of this being mass extermination of civilians under German control - of course they will work on quartering the entire German land. When it comes to the German civilians casualties they were big but were they as large as German civilian casualties from Allied 24/7 bomb runs? I dont think so.
When it comes to this, Allies inflicted far greater death toll to civilians for two reasons - (a) revenge for German bombing of UK (while big, casualties were ridiculously small when compared to USSR civilian losses) and (b) military reasons (US especially in this regard on both European and Asian fronts - US suffered no major civilian casualties, there was no direct attack on US territory).
So, both sides took their revenge on Germany. One in old fashioned way if you want (USSR) and other through today would be called surgical strikes (US and UK - surgical in terms they destroyed millions in firestorms (nukes anyone?) but they did not see them so I guess this makes everything OK).
Main reason for the planned confrontation was too quick advance of Red Army into Eastern and Central Europe. Wherever USSR moved they installed their own governments (unlike say what UK wanted - because hey they wanted governments they could control). This and very weird maneuvers around Northern Italy, especially in Trieste area (seen as a gateway to deeper depth required for better control of Austria) caused great concern for Churchill, especially because Stalin was not supposed to move that fast (since he and Churchill split the areas of control beforehand). While Stalin was definitely creating a cache he could barter later with Churchill, Poland was off-the-table as they say because USSR did not want tensions on direct borders. What is interesting here is how author goes a bit over how Lvov ended up in Ukraine and how Poland moved and grabbed German territory in return. I guess in today's climate not something to talk about.
And this is what is presented as main element of the issue - Poland and its orientation, towards the West or the East. And, as expected USSR enforced their will and Poland was taken under the East sphere of influence.
Churchill was preparing for the conflict, amassing troops where possible using even some [proxy] troops like Polish Army under UK command and playing with idea of using German troops (that author calls "tigers") as a reinforcements when the new war starts. All projections showed that on the sea and in the air UK had control but only if US gets involved. And US was not going to get involved in this because they saw this as a plan for UK to strengthen their own empire, and US just wanted UK Empire gone.
When it comes to land warfare situation was very much different - there was no way for Allies to obtain strategic surprise and thus achieve anything quickly. If war of attrition was to take place Allies could not hold the line for any long time period. Basically what happened is that Allies just did not manage to get close staging area to attack, they had to move over great distances, probably get sucked in into the ever greater territory and then expect serious resistance and attacks from the Red Army. for all means and purposes they would walk the same way as Germans did. And would end the same.
This does allow for discussion on what would be the situation if Allies entered Poland or got very near to it before USSR (very hard to imagine but say they could do it). If Churchill could control himself, he would use this politically, but my fear is that Churchill would move on even on his own because Allies would have very near staging area and would feel they can at least take over Poland and parts of USSR.
Especially sobering are comments from UK command - from the very beginning they said no way, these goals cannot be achieved. Well, at least one part of the state was clear minded.
Changes in US government (Truman taking over after Roosevelt's death) made US more pliable to Red scare from the UK side (Roosevelt knew Churchill and apparently did not like him much, while Truman was more understanding especially after US diplomatic corps suggested isolation of USSR) so when US did get involved (after USSR entries into Iran and moves towards Turkey), unified front was established but UK will never again be [publicly] in command. US will take over the torch.
Book is short but written in the spirit of modern times. As such bias expressed is little bit too much on the nose. But that aside it is very interesting book about a very dangerous plan that thankfully never was executed but definitely started the Cold War.