John Kays, Knighted, economist and an FT journalist provides an excellent summarisation of how someone who is intelligent, successful but does not necessarily work in financial services can manage their portfolio. It is based on three simple concepts; pay less, diversify more and resist conventional thinking (the last one I agree the least with). He also starts with the simple premise that I have learnt the hard way that you cannot trust people who offer your financial advice. A lot of the stats in the book are from Lipper (now owned by LSEG).
Traditionally, financial advisers were not expert only salesmen. They were financial advisors in the same way that car dealers are transport consultants. These financial advisors knew little that their customer did not already know, except how much advisors were paid to make a sale. Take the same sceptical attitude towards a financial advisor as you would towards a shop sales assistant, be incredibly sceptical towards investment managers that use relative performance against their peers, and not absolute and be sceptical of the investment maxims that a number of investment advisors use such as “sell in May and go away, benefit from the small company effect as they are subject to less research, buy the dogs of the Dow”. They are just trying to sound more intellectual than they really are. Also remember that the seller of a financial product or company always has the advantage over the buyer, because they have more knowledge. Ensure that total charges do not exceed 1% PA.
John Kay’s summarisation of a stock broker is near spot on. “Stockbrokers derived from the days before players replaced gentlemen; grand but seedy (messy/fat), with good social skills and connections; streetwise but not clever, well off but not hard working. These people still exist, mostly outside of London, but are a dying breed”. Most stockbrokers have replaced with wealth management or private banking. They are expensive and mostly pointless. Furthermore, investing overseas rarely works with an active manager (so true – think Ballie Gifford Japan). Using a passive vehicle (FTSE Global in your case) works best.
Always avoid life assurance policies as their return is abysmal. Much better to invest in your own personal portfolio as an insurance policy. Target an average return of 8%, and ensure all dividend is re-invested. If your target return was made up of 3% dividend and 5% capital gain, over four years, your £100 would accumulate to £2172 with reinvested dividend and £704 without them.
I disagree with what John says about bubbles and that all intelligent investors can do is sit out. I would love to know whether Jeremy Grantham outperformed the market over a 10-year time horizon with a bubble bursting in the middle of that 10-year period. My feeling is that if you feel there is a bubble emerging sell if you can, but if like the dominance of US stocks, you view as a bubble, just add more cash to other holdings. The market is often wrong for longer than the lost return and fund manager can maintain their job. A normal PE ratio is between 10 and 20.
Choosing the correct DCF is vital. If a company is a high risk poorly performing tech company then a it is likely to be borrowing at the rate set by the Junk Bond market, not the Treasury market.
Do not confuse security with certainty. The man who knows he is going to be executed tomorrow has certainty but not security. The same applies to people who hold cash for too long. Yes, that have certainty, but security no because of the lost returns and inability in the future to fund their retirement. The risk that is relevant to you is the overall risk of the whole investment portfolio, not the risk associated with the individual securities it contains. The key is to think probabilistically in the context of your investment needs. A long-term time horizon means that if you think there is a 60-40 chance of US Stocks outperforming two years in a row, you can afford to take that risk because you have longer to recoup if the 40% chance of failure prevails. A combination of risks may be less risk in part than whole. Do you waste your time, if you can take lots risks, by holdings assets that preserve value. If you do not require any cash from your portfolio, just hold cash in an interest rate paying account. For the intelligent investor, risk is not short-term volatility. Risk is the failure to meet your objectives. The notion that cash and short dated bonds are less risk than volatile equities is confusing certainty with security. The same principle to an extent applies to wasting your time investing Personal Assets and Ruffer. John does not believe that fixed interest or cash assets have a role in an intelligent investor’s portfolio. Keep cash to hand if you think you have an emergency on the horizon. The construction of a diversified portfolio requires as much attention to correlation as to expected return. This point I do agree with and something I will look to address in 2024 is maybe putting an investment in some metal/insurance funds. A lot of any index portfolio is long Tech, US and Long Duration assets. Chapter 7 Risk and Rewards, and Chapter 8 World of Unknows are key chapters.