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A Convergence of Civilizations: The Transformation of Muslim Societies Around the World
We are told that Western/Christian and Muslim/Arab civilizations are heading towards inevitable conflict. The demographics of the West remain sluggish, while the population of the Muslim world explodes, widening the cultural gap and all but guaranteeing the outbreak of war. Leaving aside the media's sound and fury on this issue, measured analysis shows another reality taking rapprochement between these two civilizations, benefiting from a universal movement with roots in the Enlightenment.
The historical and geographical sweep of this book discredits the notion of a specific Islamic demography. The range of fertility among Muslim women, for example, is as varied as religious behavior among Muslims in general. Whether agnostics, fundamentalist Salafis, or al-Qaeda activists, Muslims are a diverse group that prove the variety and individuality of Islam. Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd consider different degrees of literacy, patriarchy, and defensive reactions among minority Muslim populations, underscoring the spread of massive secularization throughout the Arab and Muslim world.
In this regard, they argue, there is very little to distinguish the evolution of Islam from the history of Christianity, especially with Muslims now entering a global modernity. Sensitive to demographic variables and their reflection of personal and social truths, Courbage and Todd upend a dangerous that we live in a fractured world close to crisis, struggling with an epidemic of closed cultures and minds made different by religion.
The historical and geographical sweep of this book discredits the notion of a specific Islamic demography. The range of fertility among Muslim women, for example, is as varied as religious behavior among Muslims in general. Whether agnostics, fundamentalist Salafis, or al-Qaeda activists, Muslims are a diverse group that prove the variety and individuality of Islam. Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd consider different degrees of literacy, patriarchy, and defensive reactions among minority Muslim populations, underscoring the spread of massive secularization throughout the Arab and Muslim world.
In this regard, they argue, there is very little to distinguish the evolution of Islam from the history of Christianity, especially with Muslims now entering a global modernity. Sensitive to demographic variables and their reflection of personal and social truths, Courbage and Todd upend a dangerous that we live in a fractured world close to crisis, struggling with an epidemic of closed cultures and minds made different by religion.
152 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2007
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October 21, 2024Titles and blurbs can be so misleading. I read this in the original French edition, and there the title is simply "Le rendez-vous des civilisations", which literally corresponds with "the meeting of civilizations". But rather than a balanced historical analysis of the encounters between different cultures and geographical spaces, this more was a focused analysis, largely confined to the Islamic world. In that light, the subtitle of the English edition ('The Transformation of Muslim Societies') is more correct. The authors, a demographer and a historian, have clearly taken Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order as a point of reference, precisely in order to correct Huntington.
Their main message is that the Islamic world is also subject to the modernization process that started in Europe more than 2 centuries ago and is now continuing worldwide. That seems like an open door. But the special thing about this book is that the authors very specifically use the evolution of demographic data as the ultimate evidence: the Islamic world, in all its diversity, is also undergoing 'the historical law' of a declining fertility accompanied by increasing literacy and declining religiosity. All in all, therefore, only 3 factors are taken into account by them to support a historical evolution at the meta level.
Now I'm not a statistician, I'm not going to venture a technical assessment of the data Courbage and Todd use, and the correlations they establish with them. I must acknowledge that those correlations between declining demographics, increasing literacy and declining religiosity seem to be correct. But are these correlations sufficient to provide an overall picture? On the basis of their analyses, the authors bluntly state: “the postulate of decisive importance of birth control as an engine of modernity and revealing of an evolution of mentalities”. Especially birth control as MOTOR of modernity seems to me at least a rather risky statement. Is this not a tunnel vision? By focusing on 1 factor, only that factor seems to be a sufficient and necessary explanation. Quod non.
Moreover, Courbage and Todd start their analysis with the premise that the whole world is in a convergence mode that you can call "modernity", in which culture and certainly religion are but marginally phenomena. In other words, just the opposite of what Huntington claims; so it seems that with their statistical analysis they are just ending up in the other extreme. I am certainly not going to say they are wrong, but my gut tells me that, like Huntington, their statements are too general to do justice to the complexity of our world. Even if there is global convergence, and there are some good indicators there is (think of the globalization debate), it is a convergence in diversity and increased complexity, and not homogeneity. If my reading of the system theory-approaches, a few years ago, has taught me anything, it is that reducing broad evolutions to a few determinants is not a beneficial way and that such an analysis certainly cannot serve as a basis for "historical laws", let alone for predicting the future.
In addition, like Huntington, Courbage and Todd commit themselves to a far-reaching Eurocentrism, by systematically taking all evolutions that Europe has undergone (especially demographically, but also culturally), as a benchmark for a universal development of modernity. What has happened in Europe will inevitably happen elsewhere, is their mantra. And to focus on demography as proof, according to me, is a far too narrow approach. So, you should see this book as an interesting, valuable, but again very one-sided contribution to a much broader debate. (2.5 stars)
Their main message is that the Islamic world is also subject to the modernization process that started in Europe more than 2 centuries ago and is now continuing worldwide. That seems like an open door. But the special thing about this book is that the authors very specifically use the evolution of demographic data as the ultimate evidence: the Islamic world, in all its diversity, is also undergoing 'the historical law' of a declining fertility accompanied by increasing literacy and declining religiosity. All in all, therefore, only 3 factors are taken into account by them to support a historical evolution at the meta level.
Now I'm not a statistician, I'm not going to venture a technical assessment of the data Courbage and Todd use, and the correlations they establish with them. I must acknowledge that those correlations between declining demographics, increasing literacy and declining religiosity seem to be correct. But are these correlations sufficient to provide an overall picture? On the basis of their analyses, the authors bluntly state: “the postulate of decisive importance of birth control as an engine of modernity and revealing of an evolution of mentalities”. Especially birth control as MOTOR of modernity seems to me at least a rather risky statement. Is this not a tunnel vision? By focusing on 1 factor, only that factor seems to be a sufficient and necessary explanation. Quod non.
Moreover, Courbage and Todd start their analysis with the premise that the whole world is in a convergence mode that you can call "modernity", in which culture and certainly religion are but marginally phenomena. In other words, just the opposite of what Huntington claims; so it seems that with their statistical analysis they are just ending up in the other extreme. I am certainly not going to say they are wrong, but my gut tells me that, like Huntington, their statements are too general to do justice to the complexity of our world. Even if there is global convergence, and there are some good indicators there is (think of the globalization debate), it is a convergence in diversity and increased complexity, and not homogeneity. If my reading of the system theory-approaches, a few years ago, has taught me anything, it is that reducing broad evolutions to a few determinants is not a beneficial way and that such an analysis certainly cannot serve as a basis for "historical laws", let alone for predicting the future.
In addition, like Huntington, Courbage and Todd commit themselves to a far-reaching Eurocentrism, by systematically taking all evolutions that Europe has undergone (especially demographically, but also culturally), as a benchmark for a universal development of modernity. What has happened in Europe will inevitably happen elsewhere, is their mantra. And to focus on demography as proof, according to me, is a far too narrow approach. So, you should see this book as an interesting, valuable, but again very one-sided contribution to a much broader debate. (2.5 stars)
June 1, 2020
Interesting but very one-sided contribution to the debate on globalisation. In order to counter Samuel Huntington the authors are specifically focussing on the Islamic world and demographics. See my review in my History-account on Goodreads: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show....
July 8, 2016
الكتاب تخصصي جدا، عنوان الترجمة العربية "تحولات المجتمعات المسلمة حول العالم" أراه بعيدا عن محتوى الكتاب الذي يتناول معدلات الخصوبة في العالمين العربي والإسلامي وانخفاضها وارتفاعها وارتباط ذلك بانتشار التعليم ومحو الأمية.
January 7, 2018
تحولات المجتمعات المسلمة يقصد بها التحولات الديموغرافية .. للتوضيح
August 25, 2018
Correlation Is Not Explanation
Courbage and Todd's stated purpose is to reassure the reader that violence in the Muslim world is explainable as a demographic adjustment, comparable to what has occurred elsewhere and else-when. He argues that the "clash of civilizations", at least one caused by a demographic time bomb, will not take place due to the inexorable rise of literacy, particularly female literacy.
The outline of Muslim demographics around the world is interesting and informative but as someone who dabbles in applied mathematics from time to time I'm bothered by the statistical methodology. An incidental correlation is not a substitute for explanation. The author repeats multiply the years at which male and female literacy cross the 50% threshold in various Muslim populations the number of children per woman drops from a high of 6-8 towards a replacement level near 2, admittedly a good thing in terms of sustainability, but IMV there are other factors related to modernity that should have been considered as candidate causes such as electrification, improvements to health care, food security, mass media such as radio, TV or Internet, the change in the nature of work, access to and social attitudes towards contraceptives. Where the authors do mention these causes they neglect to consider the same time lag effect that he gives literacy.
Though I had problems with the main thesis, for example the book doesn't consider what people might be reading and how that might influence their actions, I found many of the cultural observations regarding matrilocal and patrilinear marriage preferences fascinating. Regional influences are shown to predominate over religion in the far east though in the Arab world and Pakistan there is a high bias towards marriage between cousins, in particular between the children of brothers (patrilinear), a bond that is considered taboo in the Christian world. Courbage and Todd put a positive spin on this and reflect that suicide rates are lower than other societies as is neglect and subsequent death of young female children. They also relate that the Arab father is relatively powerless wrt to his sons and wive(s). Polygamy rates usually affect 10% of women or less , for example it is 6.8% in Jordan, though it is high in Nigeria (41%) and surprisingly in the Ivory Coast 24.7% for Catholics and 44.5% and 47.2% Muslims and Animists respectively, indicating local reasons and traditions for the practice.
What is omitted from consideration is that the influence of the brothers would be more significant than the father alone and could be the proximate cause of high rates of sexism and female repression in many parts of the Arab world. The authors should also have considered that is the relative not absolute rates of growth that that determine the final mix of populations, both in age and ethnic distribution. It can be argued that instability arises when the weight of population of subgroups reaches a tipping point upsetting the established order. Lastly an index at the back would have been a useful aid as well, and the lack of an index usually lowers my rating.
For an alternate and supporting POV I would highly recommend readers take a look Dr. Hans Rosling's TED talk from 2009 where he demonstrates a free tool he developed called GapMinder. Rosling's dashboard application graphically demonstrates a world wide trend towards greater family prosperity linked to smaller family size.
Courbage and Todd's stated purpose is to reassure the reader that violence in the Muslim world is explainable as a demographic adjustment, comparable to what has occurred elsewhere and else-when. He argues that the "clash of civilizations", at least one caused by a demographic time bomb, will not take place due to the inexorable rise of literacy, particularly female literacy.
The outline of Muslim demographics around the world is interesting and informative but as someone who dabbles in applied mathematics from time to time I'm bothered by the statistical methodology. An incidental correlation is not a substitute for explanation. The author repeats multiply the years at which male and female literacy cross the 50% threshold in various Muslim populations the number of children per woman drops from a high of 6-8 towards a replacement level near 2, admittedly a good thing in terms of sustainability, but IMV there are other factors related to modernity that should have been considered as candidate causes such as electrification, improvements to health care, food security, mass media such as radio, TV or Internet, the change in the nature of work, access to and social attitudes towards contraceptives. Where the authors do mention these causes they neglect to consider the same time lag effect that he gives literacy.
Though I had problems with the main thesis, for example the book doesn't consider what people might be reading and how that might influence their actions, I found many of the cultural observations regarding matrilocal and patrilinear marriage preferences fascinating. Regional influences are shown to predominate over religion in the far east though in the Arab world and Pakistan there is a high bias towards marriage between cousins, in particular between the children of brothers (patrilinear), a bond that is considered taboo in the Christian world. Courbage and Todd put a positive spin on this and reflect that suicide rates are lower than other societies as is neglect and subsequent death of young female children. They also relate that the Arab father is relatively powerless wrt to his sons and wive(s). Polygamy rates usually affect 10% of women or less , for example it is 6.8% in Jordan, though it is high in Nigeria (41%) and surprisingly in the Ivory Coast 24.7% for Catholics and 44.5% and 47.2% Muslims and Animists respectively, indicating local reasons and traditions for the practice.
What is omitted from consideration is that the influence of the brothers would be more significant than the father alone and could be the proximate cause of high rates of sexism and female repression in many parts of the Arab world. The authors should also have considered that is the relative not absolute rates of growth that that determine the final mix of populations, both in age and ethnic distribution. It can be argued that instability arises when the weight of population of subgroups reaches a tipping point upsetting the established order. Lastly an index at the back would have been a useful aid as well, and the lack of an index usually lowers my rating.
For an alternate and supporting POV I would highly recommend readers take a look Dr. Hans Rosling's TED talk from 2009 where he demonstrates a free tool he developed called GapMinder. Rosling's dashboard application graphically demonstrates a world wide trend towards greater family prosperity linked to smaller family size.
March 31, 2019
أثارني هذا الكتاب وأهداني تصورا لم يلفت انتباهي من قبل إزاء التشابهات الهامة بين المجتمعات الإسلامية وغير الإسلامية.. هذا العرض المفصل المدعم بالإحصاءات والجداول قد يبدو مرهقا لوهله ، ثم لا تلبث أن تجد فيه ذكاء في الفكرة وذكاء في التحليل.. وعندما تصل إلى خاتمة الكتاب .. تجد أن الصورة اتضحت .. كتاب طيب ..
June 21, 2017
الكتاب حمل عنوان أكبر من المضمون ،
العنوان تحولات المجتمعات المسلمة حول العالم
وفي حقيقته الكتاب تخصصي جدا من حيث نوع الدراسات التي أجراها المؤلفين حول العالم تقريبا .. حول مواضيع محددة.
العنوان تحولات المجتمعات المسلمة حول العالم
وفي حقيقته الكتاب تخصصي جدا من حيث نوع الدراسات التي أجراها المؤلفين حول العالم تقريبا .. حول مواضيع محددة.
August 9, 2024
A Convergence of Civilizations by Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd, translated by George Holoch and published by Columbia University Press, is an exploration of the demographic and socio-cultural transformations within the Muslim world. The book challenges the prevailing discourse of a clash of civilizations by presenting a well-argued case for convergence.
The authors' primary argument is that demographic transitions—such as declining birth rates and rising literacy levels—are catalyzing significant changes in Muslim-majority countries. These changes are fostering conditions conducive to modernization, political liberalization, and economic development, leading to a gradual convergence with Western societies.
Courbage and Todd's analysis is supported by an array of demographic data. They highlight trends such as increased urbanization, enhanced access to education, and the growing empowerment of women, illustrating how these factors are driving societal shifts. The authors' approach, blending demography, sociology, and political science, provides an understanding of these dynamics.
The book is structured in a logical and coherent manner, with each chapter building upon the previous one. The writing is clear and accessible, making complex demographic concepts understandable to a wide audience. George Holoch's translation is precise, ensuring that the original nuances of the authors' arguments are preserved.
The authors' deep of historical contexts adds depth to their analysis. They draw parallels and distinctions between different regions and time periods, enriching their arguments and providing a broader perspective on the processes of change. This historical lens enhances the reader's appreciation of the complexity and variability of demographic and cultural transformations.
In conclusion, A Convergence of Civilizations is a work that offers a perspective on the future of global relations. By challenging the dominant narrative of an inevitable clash between the Muslim world and the West, the authors present a case for the potential of convergence driven by demographic changes. This book was a total gem!
The authors' primary argument is that demographic transitions—such as declining birth rates and rising literacy levels—are catalyzing significant changes in Muslim-majority countries. These changes are fostering conditions conducive to modernization, political liberalization, and economic development, leading to a gradual convergence with Western societies.
Courbage and Todd's analysis is supported by an array of demographic data. They highlight trends such as increased urbanization, enhanced access to education, and the growing empowerment of women, illustrating how these factors are driving societal shifts. The authors' approach, blending demography, sociology, and political science, provides an understanding of these dynamics.
The book is structured in a logical and coherent manner, with each chapter building upon the previous one. The writing is clear and accessible, making complex demographic concepts understandable to a wide audience. George Holoch's translation is precise, ensuring that the original nuances of the authors' arguments are preserved.
The authors' deep of historical contexts adds depth to their analysis. They draw parallels and distinctions between different regions and time periods, enriching their arguments and providing a broader perspective on the processes of change. This historical lens enhances the reader's appreciation of the complexity and variability of demographic and cultural transformations.
In conclusion, A Convergence of Civilizations is a work that offers a perspective on the future of global relations. By challenging the dominant narrative of an inevitable clash between the Muslim world and the West, the authors present a case for the potential of convergence driven by demographic changes. This book was a total gem!
January 21, 2018
مراجعة لكتاب لقاء الحضارات
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العنوان الرئيسي لقاء الحضارات و العنوان الفرعي تحولات المجتمعات المسلمة حول العالم الكتاب يحتوي على ٢١٥ صفحة يقسم فيها الكتاب الى تسعة فصول و خاتمة حجم الكتاب و تصميمه جيدين
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الكتاب تخصصي بشكل كبير و ستلاحظ من الصفحات الاولى ان الكتاب أكاديمي ويحتوي على معلومات و احصائيات و ارقام تتناول موضوع ضيق لا يتناسب مع عنوان الكتاب الذي جُذب له القرّاء ضن منهم انه من نوع كتب الاجتماع الذي يعطيك المعلومات ويحللها لك تحليل علمي ويعطيك وجهة نظر شاملة لموضوع الكتاب ولكن للأسف ان الكاتب لم يعطي للقارىء راي ما إنما أعطاه احصائيات و مسوح مع وجهة نظر أشبه بمرور الكرام دون استطراد في وجهة النظر
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الكتاب بشكل عام ليس من الكتب المفضلة بالنسبة لي و لم يعجبني كثيراً
تحياتي لكم
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العنوان الرئيسي لقاء الحضارات و العنوان الفرعي تحولات المجتمعات المسلمة حول العالم الكتاب يحتوي على ٢١٥ صفحة يقسم فيها الكتاب الى تسعة فصول و خاتمة حجم الكتاب و تصميمه جيدين
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الكتاب تخصصي بشكل كبير و ستلاحظ من الصفحات الاولى ان الكتاب أكاديمي ويحتوي على معلومات و احصائيات و ارقام تتناول موضوع ضيق لا يتناسب مع عنوان الكتاب الذي جُذب له القرّاء ضن منهم انه من نوع كتب الاجتماع الذي يعطيك المعلومات ويحللها لك تحليل علمي ويعطيك وجهة نظر شاملة لموضوع الكتاب ولكن للأسف ان الكاتب لم يعطي للقارىء راي ما إنما أعطاه احصائيات و مسوح مع وجهة نظر أشبه بمرور الكرام دون استطراد في وجهة النظر
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الكتاب بشكل عام ليس من الكتب المفضلة بالنسبة لي و لم يعجبني كثيراً
تحياتي لكم
April 13, 2011
Très bon livre qui dresse un tableau très optimiste sur les pays musulmans basé sur les statistiques démographiques.
March 18, 2013
Good book, stats heavy. Debunks the few of a uniform Muslim identity, and the idea that Islam is related to locally high birth rates.
December 28, 2014
A must read because of its unique and positive view
Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews