Why do things go wrong? Why, despite all the planning and care in the world, do things go from bad to worse? This book argues that it is because we are like the ants. Just as ants create an anthill without being aware of it, unintended side effects of human activity create all manner of social trends and crises. The book traces the way these trends emerge and the role they play in some of the major issues of our time. One of the greatest challenges today is the complexity of our social and economic systems. Every action has side effects that people often ignore or fail to see. The book examines the ways in which limitations in our thinking and behaviour lead to unintended side effects. It looks at the role played by complex networks of interactions. Finally, it looks at the way side effects of new technologies, especially computers and communication, have created an Information Revolution, the full repercussions of which are yet to be seen. In our race to create new technologies and sustain indefinite economic growth, we are at best dimly aware of the ways in which we are transforming society and threatening our environment.
I have read a number of books on complexity theory, and this was by far the least technical and most philosophical of them all. It provides a good and cautious thinking tools for addressing complexity. Unlike the other books about complexity that I have previously read, there is not much maths or models at all. It is filled with lots of anecdotes about contemporary society and unintended consequences where people have failed to appreciate they were dealing with a complex, rather than linear system. Embedded in these tales are clues of how to be successful in not following mob thinking.
Green reflects that linear thinking remains the predominant model of thought in society. I see this phenomenon alive and well in contemporary society. “Although modern research is beginning to make inroads into understanding the links between order and chaos, people still look for simple explanations when things go wrong. One result is the tendency to make a single individual the scape goat for complex events” (p – 43). People are loathed to criticize a system that they are responsible for, much easier to find a scape goat to sacrifice. “Complex processes are often difficult to identify and difficult to understand, so people tend to look for simple, local explanations. In Witch Hunts doing so, they anthropomorphize or assign blame to individuals, rather than system” (p 43-44). A key quality of complex systems is that they are difficult to understand. Often you do not know what you are doing, and hopefully this makes you cautious.
Green’s editor allowed some factual errors to get thorough such as calling the sinking of the Titanic (1912) a nineteenth century event. He makes the point that bigotry leads to bad decisions. Bigotry should be allowed because it weakens the bigot, and allows other to take advantage of this weakness and they will evolve or become obsolete. Decisions made on bad information and beliefs are their own justice.
In the end I found this book more philosophical in its wisdom. The concepts of complexity theory were embedded, but I could only recognise them from past readings on the subject. He repeated the best rationale for environmentalism I have come across – it might not be wise to carry out an uncontrolled experiment on the only environment we have, especially when we do not understand it. Anyway, we seem to be determined to do this and damn the consequences. We have got to get to the point where we show a bit of humility as a species. We do not know, nor control everything. We must show caution with our actions. Time will tell how we do. I am certain, that others have way to much certainty.