Minority Report: The New Shape of Australian Politics

Quarterly Essay #96

by George Megalogenis

What does the new political landscape look like in Australia?
Australian politics is shifting. The two-party system was broken at the last federal election, and another minority government is a real possibility in the future. Politics-as-usual is not enough for many voters.


In this richly insightful essay, George Megalogenis traces the how and why of a political realignment. This is an essay about the teals, the Greens and the Coalition. In a contest between new and old, progressive and conservative, which vision of Australia will win out? But it's also about Labor in power – is careful centrism the right strategy for the times, or is something more required?


In Minority Report, Megalogenis explores the strategies and secret understandings of a political culture under pressure.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, Australia, Essays

132 pages, Kindle Edition

First published November 25, 2024

About the author

George Megalogenis has written three previous Quarterly Essays. His book The Australian Moment won the 2013 Prime Minister's Literary Award for Non-fiction and the 2012 Walkley Award for Non-fiction. He is also the author of Faultlines, The Longest Decade, Australia's Second Chance and The Football Solution.

Reviews

[Callum's Column · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a very good essay by George Megalogenis. It analyses the current trends of Australian federal politics. The two-party dominance is over, and hung parliaments are likely to become the norm. There are also new battlelines: New and Old Australians, renters and homeowners, inner-city and suburban, and metropolitan and regional. The teal movement remains durable due to the Coalition doubling down on poor energy policy and not fixing women's representation in parliament. Although the Coalition is leading the two-party preferred polling, Labor seems likely to retain government with teal and Greens' support. After reading this, I think I will subscribe to the Quarterly Essay.

[Flynn · Rating 4 out of 5]

In my first Quarterly Essay of what is hopefully many George Megalogenis talks the current fractured state of Australian federal politics, and what to expect in our upcoming election.

I think he does a remarkable job in defining the political milieu of the post-Covid era, where major parties struggle to assemble a base large and stable enough to win power and implement reform. The centre of political power has shifted from the 'Rural' states of Queensland and Western Australia towards leafy metropolitan seats deeply concerned with housing policy where contested by Labor, Teals and the Greens. The moderate Liberal party is explicit in its absence.

This, in Megalogenis' mind, explains why although the Liberals are polling well they are unlikely to be able to form government and a Labor minority looks likely - the winds of change have swept through Canberra and Dutton is busy playing politics to 2022's playbook. This of course does not mean that it is impossible he wins, but that if he does it is more likely to be in spite of his strategy.

I'm a big fan of Mega from his previous works on Australia and his particular outlook on where, and who, our success as a nation spawns from. This essay reinforces him as my favourite political and social commentators and has brought me around to the idea of a hung parliament being an opportunity to tackle reforms seen as difficult, such as housing, rather than something to be scared of which is the more common Labor view.

[Jim Parker · Rating 4 out of 5]

Once again, Good Reads eats my review. I can’t be bothered writing it all again, but this is tight, well-argued piece from veteran political journalist George Megalogenis about the slow death of Australia’s once dominant two-party system under the pressures of a changing electorate.

Mega George, as some call him, was once a critic of minority governments, based on the outcome of the 2010 election where the Labor Party was rescued from one-term status by the votes of three independents who in former circumstances might have been expected to back the Liberal-National Party conservative coalition.

Now, another one-term ALP government - this time under long-term backroom head-kicker but charisma-deficient Anthony Albanese - looks certain to be relegated to minority status under a hung parliament at the election due in early 2025.

While Peter Dutton’s Coalition is leading 51-49 on a two party-preferred basis in the polls, the reality is they need to win an additional net 20 seats to secure an outright majority. And that looks unlikely given their pitch to the far right and the success of socially progressive-economically conservative ‘teal’ independents in the conservatives’ former urban heartland in the leafy, prosperous suburbs of the major cities. Labor, meanwhile, is torn between its old socially progressive base and the socially conservative immigrant voters in outer suburbs.

Albanese has proved a disappointment to progressives, highlighted by his botched selling of the Voice referendum to improve the lot of the nation’s disadvantaged indigenous population. Mega George notes Albo’s stubborn refusal to postpone the referendum after the cynical Dutton dropped bipartisan support for the idea.

[liv (≧▽≦) · Rating 4 out of 5]

Politics AND demographics compiled in a neat little essay?!?!? You best believe I'm so in!
This was a good discussion of the shifting political landscape in Australia. Obviously written before the 2025 election and the prediction of a minority labor government was so far off the 95 seats they actually ended up winning but there was definitely more than just shifting demographics at play there. I thought the commentary on the voice referendum also interesting, especially because Albanese is now one of few who has one a second term after a failed referendum. One things for certain, the two party system is so out and people want more from their elected representatives.
Good read, would recommend even for those who don't know much about politics!

No quotes, listened on audio.

[Dulcie · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting theory on the evolution of political development through referendums, but I disagree. The republican referendum was not a binary choice after Howard so blatantly poisoned the chalice of the yes outcome.
The real driver of our upcoming minority is not just electoral demographics, but the sheer, unadulterated mediocrity of the Albanese experiment. Wake me up when it's done.

[Jennifer · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very interesting, impartial and intelligent analysis. Many of the events that provide context to his reasoning are within my lived memory. So it was really interesting seeing all these apparently disparate events drawn into a coherent narrative.

[Jane Mulligan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Worth it just for the analysis from page 61 onward. Nails the PMs nature and the measures of success in 2025

[Ash · Rating 4 out of 5]

Not a surprising read. Australian politics caught in its own stupidity. You can only hope both parties implode. Probably a star awarded to the comments on Don Watson’s previous essay. Such brilliant political writing.

[Kate Saap · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well argued

[Ryan Harris · Rating 4 out of 5]

During my summer break, I attended a dinner marking the anniversary of the PM’s federal seat. He said he would take five specific policies to the next election, two of which had been announced. Despite not checking the news for months, I was aware of the 20% discount to HECS debt as it had word-of-mouth salience. The idea of paying it off this year is mouth-watering to me in the same way that I was able to save the stage 3 tax cuts.

His childcare policy—which a single mum explained to me is essentially a 50% co-pay for 3-days and your employment status doesn’t matter—I felt had a similar appeal for parents. The remaining ones to come would focus on industry, foreign policy, and something else. Are these as strong? Is something missing?

The PM’s oratory is not inspiring but I can tell he is attempting to sharpen a message on memorable policies that impact people’s daily lives. The nature of political communication increasingly strikes me as the narrowest of windows through which to reach people.

George Megalogenis’ essay appealed to me as I continue to reflect on how to appeal to a majority of the Australian public. Who is the majority? What do they care about? What reaches them?

My takeaways:

Melbourne and Sydney, not Queensland, will decide the next election

Megalogenis argues that Western Sydney and Melbourne’s multicultural centres now carry more electoral weight than Queensland because of population growth through migration. Melbourne and Sydney have 40% of Australia’s total population, and 60-70% of migration flows originate from India and China.

Dutton’s strategy to capture suburban voters by appealing to their alleged conservatism is risky as it requires flipping safe Labor seats and overlooks the values of second-generation professionals. Working in Parramatta, I see this personally. I work with second-gen kids who have achieved their parents’ dreams of a better life through education and now work in well-paying jobs. Their views skew centre-left. Anecdotal, but still.

Meanwhile, Dutton has thrown away teal seats by opposing the Voice. And apparently he has offended the Chinese diaspora.

Albanese’s has had a two-term strategy of build trust, then reform

Albanese has been accused of timidity and lack of ambition but apparently his focus has been on keeping the promises he took to the last election which had to be narrow in scope to win.

Interestingly, though, two of the most memorable events of his first term centre around trust.

The failed Voice referendum burnt precious political capital.

And the stage 3 tax cuts were a broken promise but a smart one. He gave everyone more money! Tangible, wide-reaching, impactful.

Megalogenis highlighted for me the value of bold policy moves. If well-executed, they shape the agenda and force your opponent to respond to your terms; not you responding to their complaints.

Housing’s absence from the agenda is conspicuous

Albanese created a public housing fund and set a target for the private sector but these do not hit home in the way larger pay cheques and lower bills do. They are not felt on a daily basis by a majority of the population.

Considering housing is a focal point of public policy discourse it seems risky not to have a bold policy. Not just to counter the policies of other parties but to shape the agenda and force them to respond.

Megalogenis suggests cutting property tax breaks to fund more tax cuts for workers. Sign me up! Yes, Labor lost two elections with housing tax changes but perhaps a bargain like that now would work. Another option is a large-scale building program where people see housing actually being built to allay shortages.

Could a minority government be good for pragmatic reform?

Megalogenis predicts a hung parliament as the most likely outcome but argues this could encourage effective problem-solving.

I could see this happening based on the pet issues of each party. Teals for tax reform, Greens for public development, Coalition for jobs in coal towns.

Albanese could leverage these ambitions to pass policies in a way that reflect Labor values. A better life for working people.

Let’s fucking go!

[Ron Brown · Rating 4 out of 5]

I enjoy reading the Quarterly Essay, it gives an author the opportunity to write an essay of considerable length on subjects that they have an interest and expertise. I usually try to read them in one sitting.

George Megalogenis is an articulate observer of Australia and especially its politics. This is his fourth Quarterly Essay, and he has a few books to his name. For me an interesting aspect of Megalogenis was that he was married to Annastacia Palaszczuk for a few years.

Out of the turmoil of the Whitlam years Australia had a long period of stable government where the governing party usually won a few elections before the electorate became tired of them and replaced them with the opposition. The government was usually led by the same person during there periods; Fraser, Hawke and Howard (Keating did replace Hawke as PM). Generally, they were stable and predictable times.

Over the past decade things have changed. The Mr No Opposition leaders, Abbot and Dutton have thrived in creating a blocking style to everything the government wanted to do. With a hostile Senate getting legislation passed has, at times be near impossible. I have found it amusing that the Greens and the LNP join to stifle the Labor Party’s legislative agenda.

Megalogenis gives a potted history of recent Australian politics. He argues that the traditional divides of class and political party no longer have a traditional look. The divide is between the Inner city and the suburbs of our large cities.

He discusses the 2022 election where Albanese enjoyed an extended political honeymoon, even winning a seat from the opposition in a bye-election. This all came to a screaming holt with the Voice referendum and Albanese has never recovered. The 2019 election result, where Morrison was re-elected damaged the Labor Party’s perception that the electorate wanted change. Labor had gone into that election with a suite of policies, it lost, so now it plays the small target role. With the media always on the look out for a ‘gotcha moment’ and it's (especially Murdoch’s media) willingness to go hard against any reform where one section of the community will lose.

There has been a sizeable loss in trust in democratic government across the western world and Australia has not been spared.

Probably the most important issue to arise from the 2022 election was the rise of independents in traditional Liberal seats. (Labor lost a western Sydney seat to an independent). Megalogenis predicts that there will probably a minority government after the next elections. I think some independently held seats could swing back to the Liberals, however, independent candidates are here to stay as part of the Australian political landscape. They even could hold the balance of power in both houses. So, we live in interesting times.

One of the problems of writing about the current political scene has it's draw backs because of the speed that things can change. Donald Trump elected president of the US, Dutton rising hugely in the approval ratings to bring him to be the preferred Prime Minister, continued war in the Middle East and it spill over into Australian politics, the ever-developing role of China in world and Australian affairs have all recently affect Australian politics.

A worthwhile read.

[Andrew · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting, but not essential, scene setting for the upcoming election.

George paints a clear, and brief, history of politics in Australia, tying the Hawke era through the Howard era and the turbulent 2007-2019 decades, to now, an Albanese led government without a plan. Here he explores the ways the first term of Albo went wrong, clearly stating the subtext of the failed Voice referendum for those who aren't tired of it already (read: how on earth did Albo think that that would get up when we've just had a decade of coalition government?), and then presents the difficulties Labor faces at the next election.

It's political scene setting and while it does contain a level of tea leaf reading, it does manage to carry a weight that suggests that George is particularly keen for those on the left and centre-left side of politics to listen to what he's saying. (A name check of Lenore Taylor's climate change piece that swayed Kevin Rudd suggests as such.)

I do hope they listen, for there's nothing to fear from a hung parliament. Which is maybe the subtext of this essay; will we ever see a proper one party ruling going forward? Liberals can't rule alone and rely on the Nats, both of whom have reducing votes, while Labor sees off the rise of the Greens and Teals.

A better Australian future is possible through a more collaborative parliament, however we're continually gifted with a combative parliament which argues and cajoles its way into election after election, as if the Australian public doesn't deserve a better form of politics.

[standingontheshouldersofgiants]

Sigh, I'm never reading anything by George Megalogenis again, he's too annoying about immigration. Eg. he'll admit to other instances of influxes of migrants obviously causing problems like housing unaffordability but as soon as it comes to the past 20 years of mass immigration he'll do all kinds of mental gymnastics to deny it has any relation to our housing affordability/availability crisis (as well as the burden on services and infrastructure and directly contributing to disillusionment about democracy and increasing political division as people feel unheard and desperate), admitting that """New Australians""" are extremely socially conservative and religious and were essentially the only electorates to vote no to same-sex marriage while the rest of Australia voted yes but somehow these people living in ethnic enclaves who barely speak any English and have polar opposite values and lifestyles to us (and according to Megalogenis himself they are massively out-breeding us despite being a 'minority'?!) are "Australians", and oh joy they're eligible to vote! And despite them being much more conservative than Australians, Megalogenis is "looking forward" to this because it "reduces the threat of Trump, Farage, or Le Pen style politics infecting our system." (Because not having white skin automatically means you're enlightened.) But "the threat of Taliban-style politics" - religious extremism, terrorist attacks, and women's rights going backwards - "infecting our system" doesn't rate a mention.

[MargCal · Rating 3 out of 5]

3.5 ⭐
Finished reading .... Minority report: the new shape of Australian politics / George Megalogenis .... 26 December, 2024
Series: Quarterly Essay, Issue 96
65 pp. + endnotes

An interesting look at the changing shape of politics in Australia, mainly from Whitlam onwards, but harking back occasionally to WWII leaders. It looks at how the two party duopoly has dominated, although one of the two has been a coalition of two parties for a very long time. It looks increasingly closely at how support for the duopoly has been steadily falling in the 21st century with the rise in minor parties and most recently independents in the shape of the so-called teals. There are musings on what the future holds but no great insights for the future that anyone who follows politics would not also have seen. Of the several possible outcomes for the 2025 election, none is guaranteed.

A good summary, if that's what you're after. But not essential reading otherwise.


Borrowed from my local library.

[Loki · Rating 2 out of 5]

By some distance Megalogenis' weakest QE. In theory, it's about what our Parliament looks like now with such a large crossbench. In practice, it's about whether or not Dutton or Albo can claw their way back to majority, with independents scarcely mentioned at all. (His laziness in treating the Teals as a single unified party on the rare occasions when he does mention them may actually make that omission a virtue, or at least a felix culpa.) Plus there's a bunch of post hoc ergo propter hoc errors, a tendency to generalise patterns based on single examples, and a disappointing willingness to assume that things like electoral defeats happen for a single unitary reason. All in all, this essay - one of the shortest yet published in the QE series - is a fine example of the small target strategy it decries.

[Mitchell Dougall · Rating 4 out of 5]

Although at times veering into incoherence, for instance, George indicating that a 2025 minority government could offer our best chance to restore purpose to our politics and policy making while observing the teals and independents might obstruct a more ambitious second term, this essay describes some interesting features of electoral and demographic shifts that may decide the next election. George seems to think that boldness on negative gearing and the CGT could have been a winner for Labor but fails to give appropriate weight to how wafer thin the labor majority is and the comparative media hostility cf howard’s GST. It’s clear george has a low opinion of Dutton but we shall see whether the challenges of electoral math that beset the coalition will prove decisive or if this is just wishful thinking.

[Philip Hunt · Rating 3 out of 5]

George Megalogenis knows his stuff and there’s a lot of data here. In the end, George remains hopeful of a 2-party parliament of parties that have learned from the invasion of the “teals”. So why am I unconvinced?

The answer, or the problem depending on your point of view, might lie in the idea that ‘teals’ are a third party. They are not, IMHO. Perhaps they represent something more profound for the shape of democracy.

[Jordan Anderson · Rating 4 out of 5]

Despite its ostensible neutrality, I did not entirely agree with the political nuance that belied the essay’s analysis, particularly its view on positions taken by the Greens. Nonetheless, it puts forth a compelling hypothesis as it relates to 2025 election; most compelling is its criticisms of Albanese’s lack of political bedside manner and sincerity.

[Maha · Rating 5 out of 5]

A timely and fascinating insight into how the 2025 Australian federal election might pan out. Hung parliament anyone? 😂 It might be just what the country needs right now. More debate, nuance, and cooperation for the sake of the country’s future.

[Jade Smith · Rating 4 out of 5]

An insightful and inspired look at the state of Australian politics. I feel especially empowered by a better understanding of how third parties are have an ongoing effect on the major parties. I found the analysis of housing as the next Big Election Issue interesting.

[Zac McDougall · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is excellent. Probably the best Quarterly Essay i’ve read.

[Sue · Rating 4 out of 5]

Much food for thought as always from Megalogenis and a fine collection of "responses" to the previous issue from Tom Keneally and others.

[Greg · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent analysis of recent changes in Australian politics. The main change being the increasing likelihood of minority government as opposed to majority government.

[Alex · Rating 4 out of 5]

Intriguing, timely look at the political horse-trading of the upcoming federal election.

[John Coote]

The ever changing shape of our housing market is well explained by this essay. Well worth your time.

[Anna · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5

[Katie Murdoch · Rating 4 out of 5]

Just alway interested in what George has to say about the state of Australian politics.

[Stanley Xue · Rating 3 out of 5]

2.5 interesting time capsule makes for an intriguing read during the election campaign where you can see what came out of the parties

[Sharon Gamble · Rating 3 out of 5]

His prediction was incorrect, however his history lesson could be worth reading if you have the time

[mish · Rating 4 out of 5]

interesting take on the future of australian politics, will be keen to see how this growing movement towards minority governments will play out in the upcoming election