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408 pages, Paperback
First published October 15, 2003
The Gaither Report, the CED policy statement, Hitch's and McKean's The Economics of Defense, and McNamara were agreed on in verting the policy process: instead of fiscal appropriations being handed down from Congress to meet operational needs, defense planners would articulate their needs using presumptively objective and thus incontro vertible cost-effectiveness studies. Instead of Congress' determining how much national security the nation could afford, national defense imperatives should determine defense allocations on the principle that "there . . . [be] no presumption that the defense budget is now, or should be, near any immovable upper limit." Hitch and McKean further authoritatively observed that " [a]s far as physical and economic feasibility is concerned, national security expenditures could be raised . . . by, say, $30 billion per year."
The conceptual framework for rational choice theory was initially developed to solve strategic, military problems and the problems of economic modeling, even though its potential usefulness in economics and other social sciences was later recognized. Furthermore, this idea set was developed to inform policy decisions, not merely retrospectively to analyze behavior as the social sciences often claim of their own methodology. Thus, the first strategic "ration actor" as concepalized in game theory and the decision sciences was a nation-state in the icy and treacherous grip of the Cold War.
Arrow's two axioms of rationality only demand that between any two potential social states, an individual is able to specify that one outcome is either equivalent or superior to another outcome, in such a fashion that no logical inconsistencies result when all the potential out comes are aligned in a single ordering. Gone are the complex demand functions and, in their place, is the comparatively simple requirement that individuals know what they like and dislike; gone are the references to ratios of commodities and equivalent satisfaction derived from each final unit purchased, and instead there are simple pair-wise comparisons between potential end states in the world. In Arrow's new formulation the individual need only know what she prefers among two outcomes, without engaging in activity entailed by the more laborious calculation of "maximizing utility given a budget constraint." Whereas Samuelson is abundantly clear in not attributing the laws of "rational economics" to anything occurring in a consumer's head, Arrow has a different take on the proposition of rationality. He deems mathematics to be the "acme of consciousness," and suggests that a rational individual reasons in accordance with the rules of logic.
One consequence of Arrow's reformulation of "rational action" in terms of set theory, instead of the calculus-based demand functions capturing the economics of constrained maximization, is that he generalized the principles of reason so that consumer economics mandating that more is always better to less may be considered a special case. Arrow observes that the "representation of the choice mechanism by ordering relations . . . has certain advantages . . . over the more conventional representations in terms of indifference maps or utility functions ." One advantage is that Arrow's method accommodates more dimensions than is possible in graphically illustrated "indifference maps." The usual assumption of continuity required for indifference maps is rendered superfluous . In addition to these important differences between marginalist economists' "rational consumer" and Arrow's "rational choice" theory, the logical relations among preferences implied by the set-theoretic formulation of rationality differ from the relations implied by the mathematical relations structuring marginalist economics.
The combination of individuals' status as the final arbiter of personal preferences with the logical requirement that individuals' preferences should be permitted any range of expression save that violating transitivity is opposed to the type of restriction on preferences Arrow's deems to be characteristic of these political theories. Rousseau postulates a "general will" that transcends individual desires to achieve a consensual agreement of ends; Kant orders his society in accordance with the "categorical imperative," which similarly restricts the expression of individual preferences to achieve a societal consensus on ends; Marx's dictum "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" replaces individuals' unfiltered preferences with "objective needs" that presumably are determined by a source external to subjective desire, thereby violating citizens' sovereignty.
Marginalist economists are unable to say anything about consumer valuations or choices in a world without scarcity. It is specifically this world without scarcity -- of nonmarket decisions -- that interests rational choice theorists. Preference in the rational choice world takes on an absolute quality independent from public ratios of exchange and quantities consumed: an individual has preferences over steak, beer, or potatoes; the individual can decide between a given commodity bundle or, for instance, increasing his mother's life expectancy by a given percentage over the next three years. In unremitting contrast, the marginalists concept of " rational action" hinges on the diminishing marginal utility of scarce goods and their ratios of exchange. A marginalist is concerned only with the relative valuation of steak after the consumption of, say, ten beers in view of its ratio in exchange. The worlds of scarcity and nonscarcity are wholly distinct, and navigating between the two systems is mathematically feasible but requires one hundred pages of advanced mathematics.