Patterns of Plausible Inference

Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning #2

by George Pólya

A guide to the practical art of plausible reasoning, this book has relevance in every field of intellectual activity. Professor Polya, a world-famous mathematician from Stanford University, uses mathematics to show how hunches and guesses play an important part in even the most rigorously deductive science. He explains how solutions to problems can be guessed at; good guessing is often more important than rigorous deduction in finding correct solutions. Vol. II, on Patterns of Plausible Inference , attempts to develop a logic of plausibility. What makes some evidence stronger and some weaker? How does one seek evidence that will make a suspected truth more probable? These questions involve philosophy and psychology as well as mathematics.

Genres: Mathematics, Science, Philosophy, Logic, Nonfiction

200 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 1954

Reviews

[Eugene Shcherbinin · Rating 5 out of 5]

what a great book! Really enjoyed how it gives a very intuitive introduction to both frequentist and Bayesian approach to probability and applies it in a very wise manner to a diversity of problem-solving issues. I think I myself started thinking in categories of plausibility evaluating, for example, results I obtain in further mathematical methods problems

[Sarah Wise · Rating 5 out of 5]

In defense of subjective probability. I’ve been pondering the phenomenon, and it goes something like this: we go through university being taught a frequentist perspective, which involves deriving hypotheses from data collected, accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis, and accumulating information. But what if there is another perspective which does not deal with data as a prior, as a given set from which you deduct your hypothesis? This is the logic of plausible reasoning. It's uncomfortable from the frequentist point of view. How do you determine the priors? Who is to say if they are correct? biased? is it too subjective? . . . Here, Polya argues poetically for the potential for plausible reasoning to have rigour and leverage subjectivity. I think this is an incredible book. I highly recommend it if you are interested in Bayesianism or conditional probability.