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Toward the Year 2018: A Dozen Eminent Leaders in Science and Technology Look 50 Years into the Future
- GenresNonfiction
177 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 1968
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Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews
December 5, 2018
4.5 stars. I am indebted to an article in The New Yorker for alerting met to this book, which I was able to track down in my local library's system (it was in storage, and probably hadn't been checked out since the last stamped date on the book: 1971). I ended up finding this to be an enjoyable and fascinating read, despite (and sometimes even because of) its flaws, which is why my rating is probably a little higher than it should be.
In short, each essay in the book, published in 1968 by policy experts/researchers/academics in their respective fields (military, economics, transportation, weather, technology, population, food, space, etc.) makes certain predictions about the future of those fields in the year 2018.
It would be very easy (and fun!) to point out all the wildly erratic predictions that have come to naught -- everything from creating/controlling hurricanes for warfare to the wide availability of personal submarine transports -- but, in reality, the predictions are largely accurate -- and sometimes startlingly so. There seemed to be a general consensus that computers would revolutionize every aspect of life: from communications and entertainment to military and government functions, weather reporting, etc. Some predictions include computer databases that one might carry in a pocket, the possibility of communicating across long distances through visual means, and even texting using new “TouchTone” telephone technology! In terms of communications and technology, the book is quite accurate.
What is even more fascinating is what the book fails to predict (those impossible-to-pinpoint future developments that change our world): the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the discovery of fracking in the United States that would turn-around our energy situation (although this was hinted at as a distance possibility), the awareness of climate change, etc.
As such, this book tells us as much about 1968 as it does 2018. It shows us that such forward-thinking analyses are necessary, even if they can never be entirely accurate. The population section predicts a global population in 2018 of 9 billion people (accepting the high-end prediction). We ended up being on the low end of that prediction, perhaps due in very small part to our greater awareness of the need to control birth rates. The economic chapter warns that income inequality will grow significantly (it has), which could lead to great strife. The correct predictions about communications and computers also came with the warnings that we need to be more open and less hostile with international neighbors as we enter a global society, while at the same time safeguarding our privacy (as individuals and as nations), which will be challenged unlike any other time in human history. These warnings all speak directly to our current lives in 2018, and we are still well-advised to heed them.
In all, I found this a thoroughly enjoyable and enlightening read. Recommended for anyone interested in Cold War history, cultural studies, political science, or social/political/economic theory.
In short, each essay in the book, published in 1968 by policy experts/researchers/academics in their respective fields (military, economics, transportation, weather, technology, population, food, space, etc.) makes certain predictions about the future of those fields in the year 2018.
It would be very easy (and fun!) to point out all the wildly erratic predictions that have come to naught -- everything from creating/controlling hurricanes for warfare to the wide availability of personal submarine transports -- but, in reality, the predictions are largely accurate -- and sometimes startlingly so. There seemed to be a general consensus that computers would revolutionize every aspect of life: from communications and entertainment to military and government functions, weather reporting, etc. Some predictions include computer databases that one might carry in a pocket, the possibility of communicating across long distances through visual means, and even texting using new “TouchTone” telephone technology! In terms of communications and technology, the book is quite accurate.
What is even more fascinating is what the book fails to predict (those impossible-to-pinpoint future developments that change our world): the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the discovery of fracking in the United States that would turn-around our energy situation (although this was hinted at as a distance possibility), the awareness of climate change, etc.
As such, this book tells us as much about 1968 as it does 2018. It shows us that such forward-thinking analyses are necessary, even if they can never be entirely accurate. The population section predicts a global population in 2018 of 9 billion people (accepting the high-end prediction). We ended up being on the low end of that prediction, perhaps due in very small part to our greater awareness of the need to control birth rates. The economic chapter warns that income inequality will grow significantly (it has), which could lead to great strife. The correct predictions about communications and computers also came with the warnings that we need to be more open and less hostile with international neighbors as we enter a global society, while at the same time safeguarding our privacy (as individuals and as nations), which will be challenged unlike any other time in human history. These warnings all speak directly to our current lives in 2018, and we are still well-advised to heed them.
In all, I found this a thoroughly enjoyable and enlightening read. Recommended for anyone interested in Cold War history, cultural studies, political science, or social/political/economic theory.
April 11, 2024
Written by a group of experts in 1968, this book tries to analyze what the future would be like across a variety of verticals like education, transportation, and energy. I found some of their predictions to be surprisingly accurate, such as predicting GPS and smartphones. Others didn't age well, such as their worries about overpopulation.
Taken together, the book seems to anticipate a world of continuing world cooperation, where every country would come together under a technocratic regime to solve problems and work towards peace. Unfortunately, that didn't truly come to pass. The following decades saw a backlash against expertise which led institutions to suffer and trust to fall. Growing up in 2018, I was able to see both the success and failures over the previous five decades.
Overall, I'd say this book is a good short read, bring us into the possibilities for an alternate future of linear progression rather than the haphazard sinusoid we see ourselves in today.
Taken together, the book seems to anticipate a world of continuing world cooperation, where every country would come together under a technocratic regime to solve problems and work towards peace. Unfortunately, that didn't truly come to pass. The following decades saw a backlash against expertise which led institutions to suffer and trust to fall. Growing up in 2018, I was able to see both the success and failures over the previous five decades.
Overall, I'd say this book is a good short read, bring us into the possibilities for an alternate future of linear progression rather than the haphazard sinusoid we see ourselves in today.
April 23, 2022
Interesting reading predictions of what 2018 would be like. Some things were pretty accurate, others way off, which is to be expected.
Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews