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Understanding Uncertainty
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective
From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."
Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science.
With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability
* Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods
* Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty
* Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty
* Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century
* Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers
Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."
Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science.
With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability
* Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods
* Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty
* Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty
* Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century
* Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers
Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
250 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2006
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188 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews
January 22, 2019
What I liked the most about this book is the clarity with which communicates the intuitions behind the study and use of probability. It is a middle ground between a traditional intro to probability textbook and a book for the general public. It is exceptionally well written, which helps a lot to incorporate the main principles governing probability analysis: convexity, the multiplication rule, and the summation rule. As a Bayesian advocate, Lindley makes several interesting comparisons with frequentist statistics, which also facilitates to build intuitions about statistical principles.
June 16, 2019
This is a great book!!! Probably the best subjective probability book for the non-statisticians ever written
May 29, 2013
a very accessible read for an introductory material to statistics... well, not the kind that you might take to the toilet with you, also not the kind you'll read while you're commuting, but its simplicity is just like those books you read while you wait for the bus.
the material is rich, with chapters about uncertainty, probability, decision, statistics, and scientific methodology.
I would put this as the first book to read before reading more technical books like E.T Jaynes' Probability: the logic of science, or even Reasoning About Uncertainty.
the material is rich, with chapters about uncertainty, probability, decision, statistics, and scientific methodology.
I would put this as the first book to read before reading more technical books like E.T Jaynes' Probability: the logic of science, or even Reasoning About Uncertainty.
March 30, 2010
After getting it from the library, I read (with some fairly substantial skimming) the first hundred pages of this book and thoroughly enjoyed it. I like his ground-up approach and accessible language. He's also doing an admirable job of giving an even handed treatment to a controversial subject (i.e., the way he categorizes a frequentist approach to statistics as a way of measuring a probability using observations). Don't expect to finish it or give it a "deep read", but I enjoyed what I read.
Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews