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The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond
In 2001, Jim O'Neill predicted the fastest growing economies of the past decade. Now he's back to explore the new growth markets we should all be watching closely today.It's been ten years since Jim O'Neill conceived of the BRIC acronym. He and his team made a startling Four developing nations- Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs)-would overtake the six largest Western economies within forty years. The BRIC analysis permanently changed the world of global investing, and its accuracy has stood the test of time.
The Growth Map features O'Neill's personal account of the BRIC phenomenon, how it has evolved, and where those four key nations currently stand after a turbulent decade. And the book also offers an equally bold prediction about the "Next Eleven" Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam. These developing nations may not seem exceptional today, but they offer exciting opportunities for investors over the next decade, just as BRIC did before them.
O'Neill also shares several compelling insights about the world economy. He reveals the value for growing countries in being "willing to play" by meaningfully committing to policies that encourage further growth and engagement with globalization. He explains how the g20 can adjust to better incorporate the BRICs and to better reflect the balance of the global economy.
Finally, O'Neill makes the counterintuitive claim that good things can quite often come from crises. While established economic powers may see the rise of the BRICs as a threat, international trade benefits us all over the long term. Likewise, the recent financial crisis revealed deep problems in our economic systems, problems we now have the opportunity to fix.
A work of astute and absorbing analysis, The Growth Map is an indispensable guide for every investor and every participant in the global economy. Anyone who wants to understand the developing world would do well to heed the man called "one of the most sought-after economic commentators on the planet." (The Telegraph)
The Growth Map features O'Neill's personal account of the BRIC phenomenon, how it has evolved, and where those four key nations currently stand after a turbulent decade. And the book also offers an equally bold prediction about the "Next Eleven" Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam. These developing nations may not seem exceptional today, but they offer exciting opportunities for investors over the next decade, just as BRIC did before them.
O'Neill also shares several compelling insights about the world economy. He reveals the value for growing countries in being "willing to play" by meaningfully committing to policies that encourage further growth and engagement with globalization. He explains how the g20 can adjust to better incorporate the BRICs and to better reflect the balance of the global economy.
Finally, O'Neill makes the counterintuitive claim that good things can quite often come from crises. While established economic powers may see the rise of the BRICs as a threat, international trade benefits us all over the long term. Likewise, the recent financial crisis revealed deep problems in our economic systems, problems we now have the opportunity to fix.
A work of astute and absorbing analysis, The Growth Map is an indispensable guide for every investor and every participant in the global economy. Anyone who wants to understand the developing world would do well to heed the man called "one of the most sought-after economic commentators on the planet." (The Telegraph)
256 pages, Kindle Edition
First published November 1, 2011
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 30 reviews
March 1, 2017
I picked up this book because I wanted to examine the origins of an idea that has dominated the last decade or so. The book, originally written in 2013, feels a bit dated now. It is positioned just after the great sovereigns crisis of 2011, but just before the emerging markets crisis of 2015. In this respect, had it waited a few more years, it would have told a more complete story. We haven't quite reached the end of the story yet, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
In essence, the argument is a simple one. It is a truism in economics that those countries that have the fastest growth in working population, coupled with the fastest growth in productivity, will experience the fastest growth in GDP. Sometimes it takes stating the obvious for the obvious to be seen. This is one of those occasions.
At the turn of the century, the nations with the fastest growth prospects were Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Hence the term BRICs. There are three objections to this classification. First, fast growth was not only associated with these four nations, but also with a range of nations. The class of four seems to be a bit too restrictive. The author counters this objection in two ways. First, he states that the BRIC four were in a class of their own. Subsequent events show that he has a point here. Second, the author introduces the 'N-11' nations - the next eleven fast growing economies. This helps to broaden the analysis, and is quite a welcome refinement.
The second objection to the classification is that the model is too narrow to be useful. The author counters this by introducing us to the Growth Environment Score (GES) - and indexed ranking that captures some of the quantitative and qualitative factors that could lead to a high growth rate of GDP. I found the GES to be of far more interest than the basic model because it allows a part to be paid by policy interventions. Governments can now have an impact on the GDP growth rates they experience.
The third objection is a bit technical, but valid nonetheless. In many respects the increase in labour productivity reflects the displacement of labour from areas of low productivity (subsistence agriculture) to areas of higher productivity (manufacturing assembly). This will result in a boost in economic growth, but that boost will turn out to be short lived and unsustainable as the catch up process actually catches up with more productive economies. This is quite important for the future because it suggests that the growth rates experienced by the BRICs may eventually plateau and then fall behind those nations coming from behind. This was certainly the experience of Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, which each experienced a similar trajectory in their growth rates. The implications of this are soon to be felt.
Looking ahead, I can't but help thinking that like Icarus, the BRIC economies have reached their zenith. China is a dominant player, but this is because of its size. GDP per head is likely to remain in the middle income category for some time to come. How that plays out in terms of geo-politics and the global economy remains to be seen. What I do suspect is that all of the talk of the 'Asian Century' might turn out to be a bit premature. Brazil seems to have fallen out of favour as it has returned to being a typically Latin American economy (low growth, high inflation, government mis-management of the economy). Russia remains Russia - and important nation, but not quite a global superpower at a time when the energy markets are not as tight as they once were. India continues to find its destiny elusive. A combination of poverty and corruption continue to hold back its economic prospects.
The idea of the BRICs appears to have come and gone. It may be too early to write them off, but I don't share the optimism of the author. It does beg the question, though, of what the next big thing is likely to be? If we follow the experience of the BRICs as an idea, then it is likely to be something that is currently quite unfashionable. That is what makes this a useful book.
Anyone for European sovereigns?
In essence, the argument is a simple one. It is a truism in economics that those countries that have the fastest growth in working population, coupled with the fastest growth in productivity, will experience the fastest growth in GDP. Sometimes it takes stating the obvious for the obvious to be seen. This is one of those occasions.
At the turn of the century, the nations with the fastest growth prospects were Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Hence the term BRICs. There are three objections to this classification. First, fast growth was not only associated with these four nations, but also with a range of nations. The class of four seems to be a bit too restrictive. The author counters this objection in two ways. First, he states that the BRIC four were in a class of their own. Subsequent events show that he has a point here. Second, the author introduces the 'N-11' nations - the next eleven fast growing economies. This helps to broaden the analysis, and is quite a welcome refinement.
The second objection to the classification is that the model is too narrow to be useful. The author counters this by introducing us to the Growth Environment Score (GES) - and indexed ranking that captures some of the quantitative and qualitative factors that could lead to a high growth rate of GDP. I found the GES to be of far more interest than the basic model because it allows a part to be paid by policy interventions. Governments can now have an impact on the GDP growth rates they experience.
The third objection is a bit technical, but valid nonetheless. In many respects the increase in labour productivity reflects the displacement of labour from areas of low productivity (subsistence agriculture) to areas of higher productivity (manufacturing assembly). This will result in a boost in economic growth, but that boost will turn out to be short lived and unsustainable as the catch up process actually catches up with more productive economies. This is quite important for the future because it suggests that the growth rates experienced by the BRICs may eventually plateau and then fall behind those nations coming from behind. This was certainly the experience of Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, which each experienced a similar trajectory in their growth rates. The implications of this are soon to be felt.
Looking ahead, I can't but help thinking that like Icarus, the BRIC economies have reached their zenith. China is a dominant player, but this is because of its size. GDP per head is likely to remain in the middle income category for some time to come. How that plays out in terms of geo-politics and the global economy remains to be seen. What I do suspect is that all of the talk of the 'Asian Century' might turn out to be a bit premature. Brazil seems to have fallen out of favour as it has returned to being a typically Latin American economy (low growth, high inflation, government mis-management of the economy). Russia remains Russia - and important nation, but not quite a global superpower at a time when the energy markets are not as tight as they once were. India continues to find its destiny elusive. A combination of poverty and corruption continue to hold back its economic prospects.
The idea of the BRICs appears to have come and gone. It may be too early to write them off, but I don't share the optimism of the author. It does beg the question, though, of what the next big thing is likely to be? If we follow the experience of the BRICs as an idea, then it is likely to be something that is currently quite unfashionable. That is what makes this a useful book.
Anyone for European sovereigns?
December 27, 2011
'The Growth Map' discusses the BRICs and introduces the N-11 to the population employed outside the financial / global development sectors. The introduction is the disappointing story of the author's identification of BRICs rather than more exciting stories of on-the-ground development. More importantly, there were very few bit of information that were not already published via Goldman Sachs Research papers and online videos - both of which are physically and contextually more colorful. The author suffers from the same syndrome as Hank Paulson - He is a remarkable man with a remarkable story, who tells it in the most unremarkable way.
October 5, 2012
I expected more out of this book. I expected more data rather than anecdotes. This book read more like a congratulatory tome on an individual's career success in coining a catchy acronym than on a serious study of the importance of certain growth markets and the global implications. We all know countries with large populations and young populaces enjoy tailwinds. But what are the implications and what new insights do you have to provide? This book is written at a grade school level and does not deserve a place on a serious scholar's book shelf.
July 11, 2012
Nothing that hasn't been covered elsewhere if you are even remotely in tune with finance and economic news. A disappointing read with not much in terms of insight aside from conclusions that are largely mainstream truisms at this point. I expected more from Jim O'Neill.
July 21, 2021
Jim O’Niell coined the BRIC, which is short for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The BRICs were seen to be high growth countries because they have large populations which are engaging in international trade. The basics of growth depends on population and productivity. There cannot be sustained growth without an incentive for work, such as obtaining an appropriate income from labor. More income means more consumption opportunities. Resources do need to be better managed, but over time different resource sources can be found and consumption pattern change. Each of the BRIC countries had a lot of problems, but they are willing to change and engage with the world.
The author acknowledges the complexity of economics and does not appreciate lazy acceptance of consensus. The problem is that any problem with the BRIC is denounced easily. Even as the model changed and grew to be more inclusive with other countries, the basic model pretentiously holds. The author also denounces people who did not lazily accept the model, and the detractors who consider its limitations. The model may be well developed, but it remains a model that challenges reality.
The author acknowledges the complexity of economics and does not appreciate lazy acceptance of consensus. The problem is that any problem with the BRIC is denounced easily. Even as the model changed and grew to be more inclusive with other countries, the basic model pretentiously holds. The author also denounces people who did not lazily accept the model, and the detractors who consider its limitations. The model may be well developed, but it remains a model that challenges reality.
April 3, 2020
Concept of BRIC introduced by Jim O'Neill is shown the great results since it's inception by 2001. If we see the GDP, GES scores of all i.e.Brazil, Russia, India, China they have outperformed the expectations.
He described here what are pros and cons for each country for it's development and how all countries overcoming the problems.
Besides from USA, UK & Europe countries investors is having golden opportunity to invest in the BRICs.
And Next Eleven ( N-11) introduced by him they are also doing well...
i.e. South Korea,Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, Philippines, Vietnam
Investors keep an eye on BRICS & N -11.
He described here what are pros and cons for each country for it's development and how all countries overcoming the problems.
Besides from USA, UK & Europe countries investors is having golden opportunity to invest in the BRICs.
And Next Eleven ( N-11) introduced by him they are also doing well...
i.e. South Korea,Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran, Philippines, Vietnam
Investors keep an eye on BRICS & N -11.
Read
January 25, 2016Jim's book talks about how his paper of the larger emerging market economies written in 2001 is now turning into a reality. He has articulated the pros and cons of growth over the next few decades in each of the BRIC countries based on the Growth Environment Scores Index comprisisng of both Macroeconomic variables like Inflation, Govt Deficit etc and Microeconomic variables like use of technology, mobility, level of education, stability of government etc. Some of the N-11 countries like Indonesia, Korea, Mexico and Turkey are catching up to become the next set of emerging markets while the BRIC's move to an emerged state. He expects the GDP of the overall BRIC nations to cross that of the US some time this decade and is of the opinion that International trade is good for everyone and a few of the G7 nations have shown adaptability to meeting this growing demand of the BRIC's and N-11 countries.
January 4, 2018
AUSTRALIA WILL BE IN AN INCREDIBLE POSITION FOR YEARS TO COME AS IT IS RICH IN COMMODITIES AND SURROUNDED BY FAST GROWING ECONOMIES.
Productivity relates to technology, education, infrastructure and healthcare.
In India 20% of children between 6-14 don't attend school.
Ease of doing business needs to be improved in India, so does infrastructure and barriers to imports and foreign direct investment.
Nigeria is critical to Africa with approx 20% of the continents population.
As a large exporting nation the growth of world trade is crucial to Germany's prosperity.
There is something about urbanisation which accelerates growth for a nation and increases prosperity. Proximity increases competition to keep up with what others have, it increases the transfer of knowledge and it increases convenience.
More than 2/3 of the world population is in Asia.
On a GDP per capita basis Brazil and Russia are similar, followed by China and then India.
Productivity relates to technology, education, infrastructure and healthcare.
In India 20% of children between 6-14 don't attend school.
Ease of doing business needs to be improved in India, so does infrastructure and barriers to imports and foreign direct investment.
Nigeria is critical to Africa with approx 20% of the continents population.
As a large exporting nation the growth of world trade is crucial to Germany's prosperity.
There is something about urbanisation which accelerates growth for a nation and increases prosperity. Proximity increases competition to keep up with what others have, it increases the transfer of knowledge and it increases convenience.
More than 2/3 of the world population is in Asia.
On a GDP per capita basis Brazil and Russia are similar, followed by China and then India.
April 12, 2012
This book was written by the Goldman Sachs principal who coined the term "BRICs" back in 2001. Goldman's reputation has been seriously tarnished, but O'Neill is based in the UK and there is no denying his bona fides. What I really enjoyed about the book was his insistence upon being open to new ways of thinking and new political systems as the basis for future economic success. He contrasts India's messy democracy with China's state capitalism. He refers to the BRICs as growth economies, not emerging economies. He has an intriguing chapter on an evolving monetary system and the inevitable rise of the renminbi. O'Neill presents a very optimistic forecast for a bright, if different, future.
July 25, 2012
The book is a good introduction to the BRIC economies acronym, especially those who did not here of it before. The enthusiasm the auther has for the BRIC countries is big, he actually sees a big opportunity even for developed economies to prosper with the growth of the growth economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Although i felt that after the first half of the book there were a lot of repetitions, i think the book is a good read. My next step now is to seek an opportunity in one of these BRIC economies!
Although i felt that after the first half of the book there were a lot of repetitions, i think the book is a good read. My next step now is to seek an opportunity in one of these BRIC economies!
June 5, 2016
Jim attempts to extend further the concept of BRIC which he developed, by looking into the crystal ball which other countries will be able to join Brazil, Russia, India and China. Though the book makes for interesting reading particularly in looking at how he develops the parameters as to what to take into account when forecasting the countries that will pull ahead of others, the jury is still out on a more dependable way to pick winners.
November 8, 2015
The book reminded me of the exams i had in college, in which i used all my imagination, and sentences repeating itself in meaning, just to fill the page i was supposed to. First half of the book was really very enlightening for me, but the second half was a disaster, making me feel that Jim O'Neill was desperately trying to fill the space that he was asked to. A 50 page article should have been enough to tell what this book does...
July 10, 2012
O'Neill's book was heavy on "BRICs" and short on content for what he calls the "N-11" but I still learned alot. What most impressed me was how much more impressive China's development is compared to India - clearly numerous reforms are needed if India hopes to eradicate some of its extreme poverty.
April 21, 2013
La cita rescatable (y es verdad): "En 2007, la ciudad de Ulyanovsk organizó un día de la concepción en el cual se les alentaba a los trabajadores a ir a su casa y tener sexo. [Legend-Wait for it-dary... había premios] Los premios, incluían un auto 4x4 y los cuales se entregarían a quienes concibieran a sus hijos en junio 12 del año siguiente, siendo este día el Día de Rusia."
March 27, 2015
Slick. O'Neill has a way of cutting through the statistics to get to the root of the issues involved and peek into the future with some authority, given his track record. Well worth a read for anyone interested in understanding the fundamental changes the world economy is going through and how to come to terms with the new geopolitical map.
February 5, 2016
A good book on the BRIC's-Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Really sets up the future as to what will happen when these countries economies reach maturity, and a burgeoning middle class appears in all four. Remember, that Jim O'Neill, the author, works for Goldman Sachs, so I am sure that they have investing vehicles that fit this scenario perfectly.
March 24, 2016
Interesting explanation of the author's coining of the term "BRIC" and his view for the future. It makes interesting reading, especially a couple of years down the road from the date it was written. All the trouble in Brazil and Russia must make us question some of his views, but the general theory of economic growth still makes sense.
December 19, 2011
Thirty minutes browsing this title at the local B&N did not impress. At least in the sections I reviewed, the author provided little insight. What he did provide were numerous reminders that he was responsible for coining the term "BRIC."
July 5, 2013
Quick read on Brazil, Russia, India and China. The main point that the writer wanted to get across is that the BRIC nations are no longer emerging, but have emerged. Also, the fallacy of the G-6, G7, and G8. He also suggested an additional group of key nations, the N-11.
March 25, 2012
I was not able to get into this nonfiction about finance and the future of economics in third world countries. Just not my cup of tea.
Read the first few chapters and quit.
Read the first few chapters and quit.
June 17, 2012
Great read! Loved the book. Highly recommend it.
December 22, 2012
Brilliant book from the man who coined the term BRIC... Well written and very insightful
January 1, 2014
did not read the entire book. Read it for school.
March 7, 2015
Interesting read. I wouldn't agree with all the views. Nevertheless, the fact that these 4 large countries will become bigger and play an important role in the world is pretty certain.
May 12, 2013
A lot of good economic information that I use in everyday life.
January 9, 2018
Great book uncovering the opportunities in less recognised nation. A detailed analysis of the challenges and opportunities in Brazil, Russia India and China.
January 7, 2015
A lot of mixed reviews here but I definitely feel much more informed after reading this book. Has the right anecdotes to leave you thinking and sufficient data points
December 24, 2015
Good on emerging markets
September 11, 2012
Good read esp for those who are looking to understand the dynamics of emerging markets.
January 30, 2019
On the positive side,the book has a fair share of useful insights about growing markets beyond the BRIC wall ....Jim O' Neill (who coined the acronym "BRIC") identifies the next 11 or N-11...
\nFor growing SME companies looking to build bridges into these emerging markets,you get high level macroeconomic pointers on each of the 11 countries identified.
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\nFor growing SME companies looking to build bridges into these emerging markets,you get high level macroeconomic pointers on each of the 11 countries identified.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 30 reviews