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Time Bomb 2000: What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You! Revised & Updated Edition
Time Bomb 2000 has become a world-wide bestseller because it doesn't just tell you that there's a Y2K crisis on the it spells out how to evaluate your personal risks -- and what you can do about them. As the crunch draws closer, this new edition -- completely updated to reflect Y2K news in every key area of the economy -- is essential reading for everyone who wants to survive Y2K! As over 140,000 readers can already attest, Time Bomb 2000 is the most practical guide to the Y2K crisis. Based on the newest information available, you'll learn what problems are likely to occur, how they will impact individuals and society, and what you can do to prepare. This edition contains updated coverage of every major aspect of society, including communications, power distribution, transportation, finance, travel, medicine, social services, education and employment. You'll find the latest expert assessments of the relative probabilities -- and consequences -- of failure. Best of all, the book presents practical contingency plans and fallback positions in the event the worst happens. Anyone worried about the Y2K problem -- in other words, just about everyone.
- GenresComputersNonfiction
Paperback
First published December 24, 1997
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
September 17, 2023
A NOTED SOFTWARE ENGINEER MAKES RADICAL PREDICATIONS FOR Y2K
Authors Edward and Jennifer Yourdon (his daughter) wrote in the Preface to the Second (1999) edition of this 1997 book, “We’ve maintained the same basic organization of the book in this second edition, but we’ve updated virtually all of the references, footnotes, links, and examples to reflect the most recent Y2000-related events. We’ve also added a chapter on the international ramifications of Y2000, as well as a new appendix that provides a bibliography of books, articles, and Internet sites. Unfortunately, we have NOT been able to provide the one thing that many of our readers and colleagues have asked for: an unequivocal, black-and-white answer to the question, ‘How bad will the Y2000 problem be?’ To be perfectly honest, we don’t know---and neither does anyone else… People seem to want a crystal-ball prediction expressed in terms of an ‘either-or’ outcome. They want someone to say, ‘Either Y2000 is going to be the end of the world (TEOTWAWKI), or it’s going to be a non-event…’ But this is an overly simplistic way of looking at the future, and it doesn’t help us make effective plans for coping with what, at this point, remains unknown.” (Pg. xvi-xviii)
They continue, “When it comes to Y2000, most of us will agree that the ‘non-event’ scenario is relatively unlikely; there’s a reasonably good chance that we’ll experience one or more minor disruptions, at the very least. Beyond that, we each have to do our own risk assessment… how much are we willing to gamble that our assessment might turn out to be wrong? … One last point about the crystal-ball assessment, and the decisions we make: They deserve to be private… The proper answer, we believe, is: None of your business!” (Pg. xx) They add, “With few, if any, exceptions, all of the optimistic news about Y2000 has been SELF-REPORTED status information; even if the people who tell us the good news are honest, sincere, and competent … they may still be wrong.” (Pg. xxiv)
They state in the Preface, “this is not a book aimed at computer professionals… This book is aimed at computer users, including our family, our neighbors, our friends, and all the millions of people who USE computers without really understanding or caring about how they work… this book asks the question: ‘What if the computer industry doesn’t manage to fix the Year-2000 problem successfully? How serious a problem could it be, and what should your fallback plan be?... What if the Year-2000 problem knocks out electricity for three days, or the water supply for a month, or access to your bank account for a year, or regular Social Security checks for a decade?” (Pg. xxxii) They continue, “Why do we think something like this could happen? … because the effort to fix the software is a massive job with a very immovable deadline…. Unfortunately, we also think that a small percentage---perhaps in the range of 5-10%---of the Year 2000 problems could be of the ‘serious’ variety, i.e., requiring a year to repair.” (Pg. xxxiv-xxxv)
They acknowledge, “Maybe we’ll all wake up on January 1, 2000 and find that aside from a few niggling, insignificant problems, all the computers continue humming along as usual. Maybe we authors will be accused of behaving like the boy who cried ‘Wolf!’ in the fairy tale. If so, it will be deeply embarrassing to us---but that’s a small price to pay!” (Pg. 16)
They suggest, “We hasten to note that banking is unlikely to disappear, no matter how serious the Y2000 problem turns out to be. Greenbacks might be printed in a different color, old banks might be replaced by new banks, but money and banking have survived for thousands of years, and will continue to exist in some form.” (Pg. 74)
They admit, “Automobiles will NOT explode at midnight on December 31, 1999, and it’s unlikely that any of them will suffer any significant problems. However, there are several THOUSAND combinations of make, model, and vintage-year of automobile on the highways today, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that a few of these combinations will suffer Y2000 problems.” (Pg. 128)
They explain, “COULD [hospitals, etc.] break down on January 1, 2000? The sobering answer is: We don’t know, and in many cases, the hospitals don’t know either… an Emergency Medicine physician… reviewed the first draft of our book and commented: ‘In a general sense, most routine bedside medical monitoring devices tend to be ignorant of the year and are as such probably … immune from Y2K… Some of the more exotic devices found within the ICU may not be similarly classified.’” (Pg. 321)
They note, “If America’s Y2K progress seems frustratingly late and disorganized, here’s the bad news: Europe is roughly a year behind us, Asia is iso preoccupied with its immediate financial crises that it’s even further behind---and Africa and South America are sound asleep…” (Pg. 482)
In an Appendix on ‘Additional Sources of Information,’ they state, “Gary North’s website… Love him or hate him, but don’t ignore him. Gary has strong opinions on Y2K, which you may agree or disagree with; but his site has become one of the pre-eminent sources of material on Y2K, covering a much broader area than the … sites mentioned above…Most of the material consists of newspaper or magazine articles, but he has also tracked down a variety of other documents, reports, memos, email messages, and the like… He typically adds 5-10 entries each day. We visit his site daily.” (Pg. 608-609)
They conclude, “we are deeply concerned about the potential impact of Y2000 in every aspect of our lives. The more we’ve investigated… the more worried we have become… In the final analysis, we believe that it’s better to be terrified now and take appropriate actions, even if it turns out that the Y2000 problems are no worse than a few monthly mosquito bites. The alternative---being complacent now and facing the possibility of severe Y2000 problems without any fallback plans---could turn out to be the equivalent of a fatal rattlesnake bite… Consequently, we’re making our fallback plans now---and we hope this book has convinced you to begin makint yours.” (Pg. 520-521)
Edward Yourdon died in 2016; he wrote a number of fine books (e.g., ‘The Decline and Fall of the American Programmer’), but he lost a great deal of credibility for this book and its follow-up, ‘The Complete Y2K Home Preparation Guide.’
Authors Edward and Jennifer Yourdon (his daughter) wrote in the Preface to the Second (1999) edition of this 1997 book, “We’ve maintained the same basic organization of the book in this second edition, but we’ve updated virtually all of the references, footnotes, links, and examples to reflect the most recent Y2000-related events. We’ve also added a chapter on the international ramifications of Y2000, as well as a new appendix that provides a bibliography of books, articles, and Internet sites. Unfortunately, we have NOT been able to provide the one thing that many of our readers and colleagues have asked for: an unequivocal, black-and-white answer to the question, ‘How bad will the Y2000 problem be?’ To be perfectly honest, we don’t know---and neither does anyone else… People seem to want a crystal-ball prediction expressed in terms of an ‘either-or’ outcome. They want someone to say, ‘Either Y2000 is going to be the end of the world (TEOTWAWKI), or it’s going to be a non-event…’ But this is an overly simplistic way of looking at the future, and it doesn’t help us make effective plans for coping with what, at this point, remains unknown.” (Pg. xvi-xviii)
They continue, “When it comes to Y2000, most of us will agree that the ‘non-event’ scenario is relatively unlikely; there’s a reasonably good chance that we’ll experience one or more minor disruptions, at the very least. Beyond that, we each have to do our own risk assessment… how much are we willing to gamble that our assessment might turn out to be wrong? … One last point about the crystal-ball assessment, and the decisions we make: They deserve to be private… The proper answer, we believe, is: None of your business!” (Pg. xx) They add, “With few, if any, exceptions, all of the optimistic news about Y2000 has been SELF-REPORTED status information; even if the people who tell us the good news are honest, sincere, and competent … they may still be wrong.” (Pg. xxiv)
They state in the Preface, “this is not a book aimed at computer professionals… This book is aimed at computer users, including our family, our neighbors, our friends, and all the millions of people who USE computers without really understanding or caring about how they work… this book asks the question: ‘What if the computer industry doesn’t manage to fix the Year-2000 problem successfully? How serious a problem could it be, and what should your fallback plan be?... What if the Year-2000 problem knocks out electricity for three days, or the water supply for a month, or access to your bank account for a year, or regular Social Security checks for a decade?” (Pg. xxxii) They continue, “Why do we think something like this could happen? … because the effort to fix the software is a massive job with a very immovable deadline…. Unfortunately, we also think that a small percentage---perhaps in the range of 5-10%---of the Year 2000 problems could be of the ‘serious’ variety, i.e., requiring a year to repair.” (Pg. xxxiv-xxxv)
They acknowledge, “Maybe we’ll all wake up on January 1, 2000 and find that aside from a few niggling, insignificant problems, all the computers continue humming along as usual. Maybe we authors will be accused of behaving like the boy who cried ‘Wolf!’ in the fairy tale. If so, it will be deeply embarrassing to us---but that’s a small price to pay!” (Pg. 16)
They suggest, “We hasten to note that banking is unlikely to disappear, no matter how serious the Y2000 problem turns out to be. Greenbacks might be printed in a different color, old banks might be replaced by new banks, but money and banking have survived for thousands of years, and will continue to exist in some form.” (Pg. 74)
They admit, “Automobiles will NOT explode at midnight on December 31, 1999, and it’s unlikely that any of them will suffer any significant problems. However, there are several THOUSAND combinations of make, model, and vintage-year of automobile on the highways today, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that a few of these combinations will suffer Y2000 problems.” (Pg. 128)
They explain, “COULD [hospitals, etc.] break down on January 1, 2000? The sobering answer is: We don’t know, and in many cases, the hospitals don’t know either… an Emergency Medicine physician… reviewed the first draft of our book and commented: ‘In a general sense, most routine bedside medical monitoring devices tend to be ignorant of the year and are as such probably … immune from Y2K… Some of the more exotic devices found within the ICU may not be similarly classified.’” (Pg. 321)
They note, “If America’s Y2K progress seems frustratingly late and disorganized, here’s the bad news: Europe is roughly a year behind us, Asia is iso preoccupied with its immediate financial crises that it’s even further behind---and Africa and South America are sound asleep…” (Pg. 482)
In an Appendix on ‘Additional Sources of Information,’ they state, “Gary North’s website… Love him or hate him, but don’t ignore him. Gary has strong opinions on Y2K, which you may agree or disagree with; but his site has become one of the pre-eminent sources of material on Y2K, covering a much broader area than the … sites mentioned above…Most of the material consists of newspaper or magazine articles, but he has also tracked down a variety of other documents, reports, memos, email messages, and the like… He typically adds 5-10 entries each day. We visit his site daily.” (Pg. 608-609)
They conclude, “we are deeply concerned about the potential impact of Y2000 in every aspect of our lives. The more we’ve investigated… the more worried we have become… In the final analysis, we believe that it’s better to be terrified now and take appropriate actions, even if it turns out that the Y2000 problems are no worse than a few monthly mosquito bites. The alternative---being complacent now and facing the possibility of severe Y2000 problems without any fallback plans---could turn out to be the equivalent of a fatal rattlesnake bite… Consequently, we’re making our fallback plans now---and we hope this book has convinced you to begin makint yours.” (Pg. 520-521)
Edward Yourdon died in 2016; he wrote a number of fine books (e.g., ‘The Decline and Fall of the American Programmer’), but he lost a great deal of credibility for this book and its follow-up, ‘The Complete Y2K Home Preparation Guide.’
August 22, 2007
This book doesn't measure up to Yourdon's previous work. I guess he got caught up in the hype like so many others.
February 25, 2009
Very good.
February 5, 2016
Pretty scary stuff! But, alas, nothing happened in 2000.
May 9, 2016
It's funny to think about this book now. Crisis averted! Ha!
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews