Forecasting Fundamentals

by Nada R. Sanders

Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization and its supply chain is virtually endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct 'what-if' analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Over the past few years the ability to make accurate and useful forecasts has become particularly challenging due to a spike in the competitiveness of global markets coupled with a global economic recession. Customers are demanding increasingly shorter response times, improved quality, and greater product choice. Increased competition is exacerbated by a downward global economy and rising fuel prices, which increase uncertainty, risk, and operating costs. The result has been a sharp rise in the complexity of what needs to be forecasted. In an era of rapid change, historical data that are typically used to make forecasts can be of limited value. At the same time information technology has enabled forecasts to drive entire supply chains and enterprise resources planning systems. However, more technology and software, without an understanding of how they can most effectively be utilized, are not the answer to improving forecast accuracy

180 pages, Paperback

First published July 1, 2014

Reviews

[Kellie Fisher · Rating 3 out of 5]

Read as part of a Supply Chain Planning class. Good overview of basic forecasting principles, but somewhat repetitive.

[David · Rating 3 out of 5]

Not bad. Good basic book on forecasting method. Not too technical. Pretty short. I was hoping it would dig deeper into more business and strategic perspective (e.g., forecasting as a tool for prediction vs. to understand the future). Anyway, good first book for new managers.